Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[kabbes]

No, my statement is that this war happened because of Putin.

Which includes within it the statement that had the counterfactual been the case, it would’t have happened. And that includes an implied syllogism containing the question, “what about if Putin hadn’t been in charge”

“Putin made this war happen”
“What about if Putin had not been in charge?”
“Then the war would not have happened”

To lay anything on a specific individual, you necessarily ask what would have happened in the absence of that individual. It’s pure, unadulterated, uncut whataboutery.

Besides, this is what you actually said:

Do you think there would be a war happening now if Putin wasn't in charge?

^^Whataboutery

“What about if Putin wasn’t in charge?”

 

[kabbes]

.

 

[editor]

Which includes within it the statement that had the counterfactual been the case, it would’t have happened. And that includes an implied syllogism containing the question, “what about if Putin hadn’t been in charge”

“Putin made this war happen”
“What about if Putin had not been in charge?”
“Then the war would not have happened”

To lay anything on a specific individual, you necessarily ask what would have happened in the absence of that individual. It’s pure, unadulterated, uncut whataboutery.

So you don't think that Putin is the prime reason this war is happening? OK, thanks.

 

[kabbes]

So you don't think that Putin is the prime reason this war is happening? OK, thanks.

That’s a hell of a leap, soldier.

Before I can answer your counterfactual stress test, I’m asking you for its parameters and scope. I can’t answer it without knowing what the alternative circumstances are that you’re envisaging. If Putin isn’t in charge then who is and what are the alternative social circumstances, given that we’ve not had any of the circumstances within which Putin has been central for the last 25 years?

I mean, if you simply removed Putin from history then I have no idea where we’d be at this point. Could be a Russian paradise, could be the smoking ruins of a nuclear war. Who knows?

If you’d removed Putin at the end of 2021, who would have replaced him and under what circumstances? There are those who could have stepped into his shoes with little change. If you’d put me in charge instead, though, then no, I’d not have invaded Ukraine.

Your “what about” question is so loose as to be impossible to do anything with it.

 

[xenon]

Putin has his own mindset for starting this war. But the idea he's all powerful, acting soaly according to his personal view of Russia's wouldbe place in the world and not subject to internal political forces that inform his decisions, is frankly silly.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Coming back to if the spring offensive has already started or not, the latest update from the Russian defence ministry would suggest it has.

Ukrainian forces conducted offensive actions in Soledar, says Russia
Russia’s defence ministry has confirmed that Kyiv carried out “offensive actions” in the area of Soledar, near Bakhmut in Donetsk, on Thursday.
State news agency Ria Novosti is reporting that the defence ministry said on Friday: “Yesterday Kiev conducted offensive actions in the Soldedar tactical direction along the entire line of combat contact between the sides, stretching more than 95 kilometres.
“26 attacks were launched by Ukrainian Armed Forces, in which more than 1000 servicemen were involved, up to 40 tanks, as well as other military and special technology,” RIA Novosti reported the Russian defence ministry as saying.
The ministry claimed that the Russian military had repelled all the attacks.

Posted at 11:38AM - Ukraine war live: Russia facing 60 mile Ukrainian offensive

 

[kebabking]

So you don't think that Putin is the prime reason this war is happening? OK, thanks.

Putin is the guy in charge, but Russia isn't a hyper-nationalist, aggressively imperial, authoritarian and wildly corrupt gangster state simply because of him - Putin is the guy incharge, as will the guy who follows him, because Russia is a hyper-nationalist, aggressively imperial, authoritarian and wildly corrupt gangster state.

That doesn't mean he has no agency - he does, he's a big player, and in some ways an architect of the system and the policies it produces - but he's also, like a fish, a product of the river he was spawned in.

 

[Crispy]

Coming back to if the spring offensive has already started or not, the latest update from the Russian defence ministry would suggest it has.

Posted at 11:38AM - Ukraine war live: Russia facing 60 mile Ukrainian offensive

"Shaping" as they say. The newly formed brigades for the true offensive are still undeployed, according to the usual analyst suspects on twitter at least.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Putin has his own mindset for starting this war. But the idea he's all powerful, acting soaly according to his personal view of Russia's wouldbe place in the world and not subject to internal political forces that inform his decisions, is frankly silly.

But, we know he has surrounded himself with 'yes men' that are too scared to tell him the truth, hence him believing his troops would be welcomed by large sections of Ukrainian society and the whole operation would be over within a couple of weeks or so.

Which suggests he has any internal political forces firmly under his thumb, at least for now.

 

[ska invita]

So you don't think that Putin is the prime reason this war is happening? OK, thanks.

Do you think we'd not have Tory governments enacting Tory policies were it not for Rishi Sunak?

 

[Kaka Tim]

who or what caused the war is - as ever - a complex interplay of individual agency, deep rooted power structures and culture and the dyanamic effect of sudnry other factors from climate, to global economy, behavour and polices of other countries etc etc. But Putin aboslutely does take the blame for starting the shit show - and it very much came out of years of actions and policy that he was responsible for shaping. As with world war 2 - Germany's rapid ascent to the most powerful country in europe was always going to bring it into conflict with the established great powers of uk, france and russia. But the how and when was very much down to Hitlers particular mania, meglomania and obbsessive anti-semtism - which led to both rapid early success followed by a carlougue of disastrous errors as he became more and more detached from reality . A more calculating, clearer thinking leadership could have led to a different outcome.

 

[Elpenor]

Do you think we'd not have Tory governments enacting Tory policies were it not for Rishi Sunak?

At least Putin was elected by the Russian people

 

[ska invita]

Do you think we'd not have Tory governments enacting Tory policies were it not for Rishi Sunak?

A better example, Blair made himself central to the decision to destroy Iraq and Afghanistan but pretty much every single elected Prime Minister in British history would've done the same.
Individuals have a role but the structural view trumps it.

 

[xenon]

But, we know he has surrounded himself with 'yes men' that are too scared to tell him the truth, hence him believing his troops would be welcomed by large sections of Ukrainian society and the whole operation would be over within a couple of weeks or so.

Which suggests he has any internal political forces firmly under his thumb, at least for now.

He has consolidated power yes. But he still just the spearhead of a particular political tendency. One which he has leant into, as they say. But see kebabkings post above for a more erudite take.

 

[emanymton]

Putin is the guy in charge, but Russia isn't a hyper-nationalist, aggressively imperial, authoritarian and wildly corrupt gangster state simply because of him - Putin is the guy incharge, as will the guy who follows him, because Russia is a hyper-nationalist, aggressively imperial, authoritarian and wildly corrupt gangster state.

That doesn't mean he has no agency - he does, he's a big player, and in some ways an architect of the system and the policies it produces - but he's also, like a fish, a product of the river he was spawned in.

You could almost say that men make history but not as they please. I'm sure someone said something along those lines once.

 

[two sheds]

“Putin made this war happen”
“What about if Putin had not been in charge?”

Errm isn't that whataboutery?

I'm not convinced "whataboutery" is always a proper counter argument by the way. "You pushed me " "Yes well you'd just kicked me in the balls" "Stop with the whataboutary"

 

[sleaterkinney]

Incidentally for those who might want to follow up some of the discussion about Yalta, Potsdam and the imperialist post war division plus the different types of resistance to and collaboration with the Nazis then A People’s History of the Second World War by Donny Gluckstein is a good read.

Edit: Just so there are no misunderstandings the term imperialist includes the USSR and the writer is from a 'Neither Washington nor Moscow' tradition

Is it as good as his other book, The Western Soviets: Workers' Councils Versus Parliament, 1915-20 ?

 

[The39thStep]

Is it as good as his other book, The Western Soviets: Workers' Councils Versus Parliament, 1915-20 ?

Haven’t read that. What did you think of it?

 

[maomao]

That's Tony Cliff's kid innit?

 

[emanymton]

That's Tony Cliff's kid innit?

Yep.

 

[redsquirrel]

Do you think there would be a war happening now if Putin wasn't in charge?

I've no idea but this notion that one person can't push a nation into war is clearly flawed. Circumstances may create a volatile political landscape but one powerful cunt of a man like Putin can manipulate that to bring about unnecessary war. See also: Hitler.

kabbes and kebabking have pretty much made the points I would.

Are Putin's actions appalling and do I hope (probably vainly) that he is held account for them - yes.

But to make Putin the cause of this war, or Hitler the cause of WWII shows, frankly, an incredible naivety and simplicity of understanding.
The rise of fascism in Germany resulted from many different material factors, and likewise with the current Russian state. I do not have a good enough grasp of the current conflict to really analyse it but to the idea that Hitler manipulated events to bring about WWII is a hypotheses rejected by most of top historians of Nazi Germany. On the contrary the flight forward towards war was the result of the contractions and conflicts, internal and external, that the Nazi regime could not escape from.

 

[andysays]

Maybe someone with a time machine can go back and assassinate Hitler and Putin before either of them came to power.

I'm sure that would make everything OK.

 

[emanymton]

kabbes and kebabking have pretty much made the points I would.

Are Putin's actions appalling and do I hope (probably vainly) that he is held account for them - yes.

But to make Putin the cause of this war, or Hitler the cause of WWII shows, frankly, and incredible naivety and simplicity of understanding.
The rise of fascism in Germany resulted from many different material factors, and likewise with the current Russian state. I do not have a good enough grasp of the current conflict to really analyse it but to the idea that Hitler manipulated events to bring about WWII is a hypotheses rejected by most of top historians of Nazi Germany. On the contrary it the flight forward towards war was the result of the contractions and conflicts, internal and external, that the Nazi regime could not escape from.

But individuals do mater, it is all Putin's fault and Putin is irrelevant are equally flawed positions. If someone else had been in power it would have changed things. How is not something we can answer. There could have been no war, or a war ealier, or a smaller war or one that was better planned. Could even be that the relationship between Russia and Ukraine changed enough that the question does not make sense.

All we can say is that we would not have this war playing out this way.

 

[redsquirrel]

But individuals do mater, it is all Putin's fault and Putin is irrelevant are equally flawed positions.

Oh absolutely. The specific form of fascism that arose in Germany was connected with the actions of Hitler (and other top Nazi's).

 

[The39thStep]

Maybe someone with a time machine can go back and assassinate Hitler and Putin before either of them came to power.

I'm sure that would make everything OK.

Paul Mason is the man you are looking for

 

[Kaka Tim]

A better example, Blair made himself central to the decision to destroy Iraq and Afghanistan but pretty much every single elected Prime Minister in British history would've done the same.
Individuals have a role but the structural view trumps it.

would they? wilson kept britain out of vietnam. Blair loved putting on his winston churchill hat - but im not sure you can say the same about Brown. Or John Major. Blair was instrumental in the UK joining the US invasion - pretty much every other western nation was against it. Also Blair had a big majority and a lot of poltical secutiry. Cameron may well had a more diffifuclt job pushing a reluctant nation to war.

 

[existentialist]

At least Putin was elected by the Russian people

For some value of "elected".

 

[agricola]

would they? wilson kept britain out of vietnam. Blair loved putting on his winston churchill hat - but im not sure you can say the same about Brown. Or John Major. Blair was instrumental in the UK joining the US invasion - pretty much every other western nation was against it. Also Blair had a big majority and a lot of poltical secutiry. Cameron may well had a more diffifuclt job pushing a reluctant nation to war.

there is quite a bit of evidence Major wouldn't have entertained the invasion:

Declassified papers reveal UK’s 1990’s secrets in Iraq, Libya | | AW

Previously secret government papers made public on Wednesday showed aspects of the UK’s foreign policy in Middle East countries in the 1990s, notably Iran and Libya.

thearabweekly.com

plus I can't really remember anyone outside of Blair's immediate circle and the usual hacks who thought it was a good idea, so I agree entirely that he was probably instrumental in that disaster

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Maybe someone with a time machine can go back and assassinate Hitler and Putin before either of them came to power.

I'm sure that would make everything OK.

 

[Raheem]

Politicians make errors of judgement, or they may take risks that not everyone would take, and those things can have consequences. It's not much of a stretch to say that you could, in some XBox game version of history, swap the decision-makers and get a different decision.

Cameron made a poor decision by promising the Brexit. Blair made a poor decision by supporting (indeed, encouraging) the invasion of Iraq.

In Putin's case, he made what appears to be a very poor decision by getting into a war that Russia's military was not prepared for. Whatever the underlying factors, a more able leader in his position might have made a better analysis of the situation and realised it was not such a great idea.