Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[T & P]

Meanwhile, in current Ukraine war developments:

Ukraine to be supplied Storm Shadow cruise missiles by the UK

Looking forward to the 'serious consequences' statement by the Kremlin

 

[ska invita]

Memory in my experience is frequently used by the state, by political actors etc sometimes to divide, and sometimes to unite. The whole question of memory is a disputed one, hence the attempt in some countries where there has been generational divide and even civil war to try and find truth and reconciliation concerning uncomfortable histories. My later post was a suggestion that it is possible to construct a narrative that recognises the complexities of victims under both fascist and Soviet regimes that allows us to have those difficult conversations.

So true....in Poland the dominant Law and Justice Party (accurately abbreviated to PiS) have been trading on anti-Russian/Communist sentiment for years. Their central electoral message was one of finding any remnants of Russian State-sympathetic elements within the Polish state bureaucracy from the Soviet era and getting them out. This is coupled with a rampant strain of openly anti-semitic Catholicism that has been poisoning Poland since the fall of the wall, and was propagated very successfully by the once very popular radio station Radio Maryja. PiS PM Jarosław Kaczyński was a regular guest.

All of this appeals particularly to a now older generation of Poles, who loved the Polish pope and either lived through WW2 or the early fallout.
How cynical all this is from PiS - how much is memory manipulation - is a matter of opinion.

In my experience Poles don't "hate" Russians as people (may be changing now), and as in the former East Germany, feelings about the Communist era produce mixed emotions. Older Poles speak Russian and many may have visited. But absolutely Poles are permanently 'wary' to put it mildly of the Russian state.

 

[spitfire]

Sounds like absolute chaos around Bakhmut. All sorts of claims and counter claims going on.

Even the Russians are now saying the UA have reclaimed up to 3k of territory and its all down to bad comms and power struggles.

More, the second half of the article introduces more balanced comments from observers:

Ukraine claims it has routed a Russian brigade near Bakhmut

The Ukrainian military and owner of Wagner say that a Russian brigade was decimated.

taskandpurpose.com

In a rare moment of agreement, the Ukrainian military and Yevgeny Prigozhin, owner of Russia’s notorious private military company the Wagner Group, both claim that Russia’s 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade has been defeated near Bakhmut.

On Tuesday, Prigozhin accused the brigade of abandoning its position, according to Reuters. In a video, Prigozhin claimed: “Our army is fleeing. The 72nd Brigade f–ked up around three square kilometers this morning, where I had lost around 500 men.”

Ukraine’s Third Separate Assault Brigade issued a statement afterward that said: “It’s official. Prigozhin’s report about the flight of Russia’s 72nd Independent Motorized Rifle Brigade from near Bakhmut and the ‘500 corpses’ of Russians left behind is true.”

The Ukrainians also released video footage that purportedly shows Russian troops with the 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade running from advancing Ukrainian forces.

Serhiy Cherevatyi, a spokesman for Ukrainian troops in the eastern part of the country, later said the brigade had suffered serious losses but was still intact.
“Unfortunately, they have not destroyed the whole [Russian] brigade yet, two companies have been seriously damaged there,” Cherevatyi said.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Sounds like absolute chaos around Bakhmut. All sorts of claims and counter claims going on.

Even the Russians are now saying the UA have reclaimed up to 3k of territory and its all down to bad comms and power struggles.

TBF it's been chaos around Bakhmut for about 9 months now,

It looks like some proper Russian troops are retreating, the Wagner chief is pissed off with them, and is throwing his toys out of his pram again.

The boss of Russian mercenary group Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, accused a Russian brigade of abandoning its position in front-line Bakhmut, allowing Ukraine to seize territory.

The remarks are the latest in a series of public criticisms from him of Moscow’s Ministry of Defense for the faltering invasion of Ukraine – and, in particular, the failure to capture the city of Bakhmut. But while Prigozhin has frequently poured scorn on the Russian military and its leadership, he has not previously accused Russian units of running from battle and allowing Ukrainian forces to recapture territory.

Prigozhin said the 72nd brigade “just ran the hell out of there.”

The blame game is at play -

Responding to questions from a Russian media outlet, Prigozhin said: “There is a serious risk of encirclement of PMC Wagner in Bakhmut as a result of the failure of the flanks. The flanks are already cracking and falling through.”

“At the moment, within the city of Bakhmut, there is only Wagner PMC, there are no other units. Outside Bakhmut [there is] only the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation. PMC Wagner is not there,” he said.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/10/europe/prizoghin-bakhmut-russia-ukraine-losses-intl-cmd/index.html

Prigozhin seems to have totally failed in his mission, so is blaming whoever he can.

More of this stuff, please.

 

[spitfire]

TBF it's been chaos around Bakhmut for about 9 months now,

Oh I know that but it looks like it is now disintegrating into absolute chaos...not organised chaos.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Oh I know that but it looks like it is now disintegrating into absolute chaos...not organised chaos.

Yep, the infighting is very entertaining, and this is even before Ukraine starts it's offensive, so will probably get a lot worst, the more the better.

 

[kebabking]

Looks pretty solid that Ukr will withdraw from Bakhmut, they are hemmed in, and the Ru having been making incremental advances on the flanks to the point where they could get surrounded.

That said: the Russians have paid an astonishing price for a town the size of East Kilbride (insert joke here..) that has been levelled to the point where it looks like Ypres in 1917. We think the Russians have suffered about 10,000 casualties within 5 miles of Bakhmut, and that given what Russian battlefield medicine is like, that means 8,000+ fatalities.

We think that (roughly) the Bakhmut front has used about 1 in 3 of every single Russian artillery shell fired in Ukraine in the last month, and 1 in 2 of every fast jet or attack helicopter sortie flown over Ukraine.

We think that something like 50-60% of the entire Russian Spring offensive in Ukraine has been used up to get to the point where Bakhmut falls.

Ukraine has certainly taken casualties, and they have started to rise significantly as the Russian pincer movement has got tighter - Ukraine has been using Bakhmut as a meat grinder for the Russian Army, and has done so very successfully, but it's starting to cost them more than they can afford to keep it going.

The question now is timing - within the next week would be my take from the messaging - and whether Ukraine can complete a fighting withdrawal from the pocket and keep it's force there intact and able to fight another day, or whether the pocket will be destroyed with the Ukrainians still in there.

I'd put reasonable money on the former, not least because the Ukrainians have shown themselves able to conduct hugely complex ground operations, and the Russians just haven't - I don't see the Russian inf/armour as being able to constantly push the Ukr while they withdraw and be able to keep the artillery on the Ukrainians as they move. Usually the Ru go in two stages - artillery first, blast the shit out of everything, then stop fires and let the Inf/armour move forward. Doing both at the same time in a coordinated fashion seems beyond them.

It will be a disappointment to Ukr, but in purely military terms it's done it's job - it's blunted the much feared Ru spring offensive, and now the Ukrainians have got bigger fish to fry. They have their own spring offensive, they've got lots of new tanks, guns and IFV to do it with, and they simply need all the manpower and fires they can get to to be able to take advantage of the gains they think they can make through manouvere warfare.

Compared to that, losing Bakhmut is small beer.

Ageing like spilt milk... Two months.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

It's fucking brutal, inn'it.

 

[strung out]

Ageing like spilt milk... Two months.

Don't feel too bad - it's not the worst prediction we've had on here. Take this one from March last year:

The war will likely be settled in ten days with a ceasefire agreement and settlement on Russian terms.

 

[TopCat]

Don't feel too bad - it's not the worst prediction we've had on here. Take this one from March last year:

Innit.

I think the only reasonable prediction now is lots more people will be killed and more stuff smashed up.

 

[Pickman's model]

I asked where?. This is bizarre, even by your standards.

I thought you'd be able to pick out your 23211 without any help from me. The only thing that's bizarre here is your 'and did he keep his word?' - not I think the first question that'd leap into most people's minds

 

[editor]

Innit.

I think the only reasonable prediction now is lots more people will be killed and more stuff smashed up.

And all because of that fucking egotistical clown Putin.

 

[TopCat]

And all because of that fucking egotistical clown Putin.

No not all because of Putin.

 

[editor]

No not all because of Putin.

Oh you're replying to me now, Great. Perhaps you could answer this:

Err, we were discussing what Russia did to Poland during WW2 and I posted up a shocking example that's in the news today.

And I read the full article. And now that I've answered your questions, perhaps you could offer your thoughts on Russia massacring 21,000 Polish prisoners of war, denying it for 47 years and silencing the families of the murdered?

 

[Artaxerxes]

No not all because of Putin.

 

[FabricLiveBaby!]

I applaud you for this post. Is pretty accurate and almost spot kn, but I'm gonna nitpick at this bit:

So true....in Poland the dominant Law and Justice Party (accurately abbreviated to PiS)

I don't think "Law and Justice" when translated into English does justice to the punniness and word play that goes on with the party name.

Prawda is Sprawiedliwośc

Prawda can mean right (as in opposite of left - against communism etc)
Prawda also means at its root means "correct"
It also means right as in human rights.

So a more accurate longhand would be "Right(s) and Just" as opposed to law and justice.

Agree with the English translation of PiS tho. As in a steaming puddle of.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Innit.

I think the only reasonable prediction now is lots more people will be killed and more stuff smashed up.

Sadly yes, unless Russia withdraws, which is the only logical way for this bloody war to be concluded.

You seem to think Ukraine should just agree to a ceasefire on Russian terms, but Russia is not even offering any terms to a ceasefire, so their only option is to send the invaders packing.

I know you have been asked time and time again how you think it could be ended, and you have never, not once, offered any idea of how that can happen.

But, I'll ask yet again, WTF do you think can bring this to an end?

 

[sleaterkinney]

I thought you'd be able to pick out your 23211 without any help from me. The only thing that's bizarre here is your 'and did he keep his word?' - not I think the first question that'd leap into most people's minds

Where did I say he was a man of honour?. I’m asking a question of you.

So he stuck to what was agreed?.

 

[cupid_stunt]

No not all because of Putin.

Oh yeah, it's back to blaming NATO.

 

[Pickman's model]

Where did I say he was a man of honour?. I’m asking a question of you.

So I see. Maybe you should revise it. After all, I never said you said that

 

[Artaxerxes]

Sadly yes, unless Russia withdraws, which is the only logical way for this bloody war to be concluded.

You seem to think Ukraine should just agree to a ceasefire on Russian terms, but Russia is not even offering any terms to a ceasefire, so their only option is to send the invaders packing.

I know you have been asked time and time again how you think it could be ended, and you have never, not once, offered any idea of how that can happen.

But, I'll ask yet again, WTF do you think can bring this to an end?

“Negotiations”

 

[Pickman's model]

And all because of that fucking egotistical clown Putin.

Now that's proper bizarre. The government - not normally known for its keen grasp of current events - recognises the culpability of many russians for the war through their sanctioning so many prominent oligarchs like abramovich etc. But for you it's all putin. Back in the day you'd have said no doubt it's all bush's fault for the '03 invasion of Iraq, ignoring eg blair's enabling and support for the farrago of fibs and rumsfeld, Cheney and wolfowitz's efforts to get the war going after 9/11. No one person, not even putin, is 100% to blame for where we are now with Ukraine, no matter how much you think they are. This is a team effort with lots of people being denied the recognition they deserve. Must be comforting seeing things so simplistically tho

 

[cupid_stunt]

Now that's proper bizarre. The government - not normally known for its keen grasp of current events - recognises the culpability of many russians for the war through their sanctioning so many prominent oligarchs like abramovich etc. But for you it's all putin. Back in the day you'd have said no doubt it's all bush's fault for the '03 invasion of Iraq, ignoring eg blair's enabling and support for the farrago of fibs and rumsfeld, Cheney and wolfowitz's efforts to get the war going after 9/11. No one person, not even putin, is 100% to blame for where we are now with Ukraine, no matter how much you think they are. This is a team effort with lots of people being denied the recognition they deserve. Must be comforting seeing things so simplistically tho

Yet if Putin hadn't ordered the invasion it wouldn't have happened.

HTH

 

[sleaterkinney]

So I see. Maybe you should revise it. After all, I never said you said that

This is bizarre. I’m leaving you to it.

That makes it all the more peculiar to see you suggest he was a man of honour.

 

[Pickman's model]

Sadly yes, unless Russia withdraws, which is the only logical way for this bloody war to be concluded.

You seem to think Ukraine should just agree to a ceasefire on Russian terms, but Russia is not even offering any terms to a ceasefire, so their only option is to send the invaders packing.

I know you have been asked time and time again how you think it could be ended, and you have never, not once, offered any idea of how that can happen.

But, I'll ask yet again, WTF do you think can bring this to an end?

What place does logic have in war? Logically wars should never start, certainly not wars which appear founded on a belief system built on very shifting sands. And wars take on lives of their own, going ways no one expected them too - it'd have been a brave person who'd have predicted in February last year the conflict's result would still be in doubt now. There's no way for this war to end atm bar the departure of one side from the battlefield through eg change of government or mutiny. There's no way forward as you point out through an armistice atm. So there's no way to go but onwards, and it'll by quite some time before this act of sheer irrationality ends in a logical - or other - way

 

[Pickman's model]

This is bizarre. I’m leaving you to it.

Yes, that doesn't say what you claimed it said, does it

 

[Pickman's model]

Yet if Putin hadn't ordered the invasion it wouldn't have happened.

HTH

Yes, wars are always caused by the actual order to begin hostilities.

 

[sleaterkinney]

Yes, that doesn't say what you claimed it said, does it

It takes a lot to get on my ignore list. Well done.

 

[tim]

Yet if Putin hadn't ordered the invasion it wouldn't have happened.

HTH

If the Russian military had been capable the invasion would have succeeded. Everyone would have evinced sadness, as they did at the time of the occupation of the Donbas and Crimea, but then it would have been business as usual and Putin would have been at the Coronation.

 

[Pickman's model]

It takes a lot to get on my ignore list. Well done.

You say that like I should give a shit