Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
And break an ankle jumping from a first floor windowYou can get a nasty sprain from falling out of a ground floor window
Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24
- Thread starter kebabking
- Start date
JimW
支那暗杀团
Looked up that story I mentioned: In Ukraine’s forests, fighters race to prepare for next push
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Resident or non resident?
spitfire
Walty McWaltface
I know, but you seemed to be unaware when you asked the question so I was trying to be helpful.
A380
How do I change this 'custom title' thing then?
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spitfire
Walty McWaltface
There's another video of Herr Wagner being very angry in front of quite a few dead Wagner soldiers. Won't share as it is graphic but he seems mightily pissed off.
From the twitter translation.
Prigozhin shares graphic video of Wagner fighters killed today, with the most furious message he has yet directed personally at Shoigu and Gerasimov. “Shoigu! Gerasimov! Where are the fucking shells!”
“Look at them, you bitches! (…) you sit in expensive clubs (…) your children make YouTube videos (…) you think you have the right to dispose of their [Wagner fighters] lives (…) they came here as volunteers and died so you could gorge yourselves in your offices.”
@ Jack_Mrgln if you really want to see it.
From the twitter translation.
Prigozhin shares graphic video of Wagner fighters killed today, with the most furious message he has yet directed personally at Shoigu and Gerasimov. “Shoigu! Gerasimov! Where are the fucking shells!”
“Look at them, you bitches! (…) you sit in expensive clubs (…) your children make YouTube videos (…) you think you have the right to dispose of their [Wagner fighters] lives (…) they came here as volunteers and died so you could gorge yourselves in your offices.”
@ Jack_Mrgln if you really want to see it.
not-bono-ever
meh
Spring jumps to summer very quickly in that part of the world typically . Won’t be muddy for much longer
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
The longer the Ukrainians can wait, the better their offensive will go. the longer they wait the more ammunition they can stockpile, the more tanks they'll have - and the better trained they'll be at using them - and the harder the ground will be. It also means that the further into the summer (early autumn?) they do it, the less time the Russians will have to launch counter offensives before winter arrives and it all turns into the Somme again .
June would be ok, September would be great - of course, that's just a military view. The political imperatives of having your cities occupied by the forces of Satan himself make going as early as possible very desirable. It just depends on internal political forces as to what viewpoint wins...
June would be ok, September would be great - of course, that's just a military view. The political imperatives of having your cities occupied by the forces of Satan himself make going as early as possible very desirable. It just depends on internal political forces as to what viewpoint wins...
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
But also gives the russians more time to build defences.
Fez909
toilet expert
"The average age of Russian soldiers in Ukraine is 20-25 years old, according to one western military official, compared with 30-35 for the Ukrainians"
A younger army is not a good thing for Russia. They already have a population crisis, so sending their fertile youth off to be slaughtered seems a bad strategy to deal with that.
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Yes you are right Russia's population is declining. However both sides have a population crisis . Ukraine's population was falling before the war due to low birth rates, high levels of mortality and high emigration rates and since the war some 7 million had left the country.
I've no idea of the demographics or how many will stay but Russia has taken or received nearly 3m Ukrainian refugees.
StoneRoad
heckling from the back!
There are a considerable number of Ukrainian children that have been translocated {a process that is still on-going} from occupied territories under various "medical & evacuation" schemes - some of whom have been "adopted" into other families at their new location. Not all of whom will be orphans, at least, I don't think so ...
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Yup .
WouldBe
Dislicksick
Which wouldn't be too bad until you get run over.You can get a nasty sprain from falling out of a ground floor window
Fez909
toilet expert
Sure, but it's Russia who chose to do this, despite their population crisis. They could stop at any time.
Ukraine doesn't have that option.
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Not arguing against that merely pointing out that both have declining populations
nogojones
spelling is overrated
He might just fall out of that window 20 times instead
LDC
On est tous des pangolins
I mean we would play the ball but you never say anything that's possible to engage with, it's mostly just one line quips. Play the ball? Dude you're the old drunk streaker running onto the pitch thinking it's daring and wild while everyone looks away feeling sorry for you and just wants to get back to the game when you're quietly escorted off the pitch back to your lonely corner of a pub somewhere.
Unlike others with different positions on the war I gave up thinking you had any worthy or critical analysis to contribute ages ago and now just have you down as a low quality troll.
agricola
a genuine importer of owls
TBF the people climbing up the dome could easily have been going to change the flag , and even fixed CCTV wobbles (especially if its high up on a building and exposed to wind).
I've no idea whether this was a false flag or not, but if anyone in the world is capable of complex one-way drone operations like this then it would probably be the Ukrainians given how they've used them so far. It might also be the case that the air defences around Moscow are not really designed to combat this sort of attack, as opposed say to a mass strike by cruise missiles and/or stealth aircraft.
Fez909
toilet expert
existentialist
Tired and unemotional
There's a lot of accumulated experience in those 50 year olds. Don't knock it.
(haha, there I go, suggesting that TopCat doesn't knock something Ukrainian. What am I like?)
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
I'm nuancing my initial view of the world's shittest drone attack.
I still don't think it's an official Ukrainian attack - but I'm also not convinced it's an official Ru government false-flag.
I think that one of the things we fail to grasp is how decentralised some elements of the Ukrainian defence system (network? System of systems? Society?) is, and that not all of it is in Ukraine, or under the direct, immediate control or direction of the Ukrainian government - and also how Byzantine the military/security apparatus of the Russian state/polity is - so, imv, it's quite possible that this is a ploy by one element within the Russian element, without reference to the other parts, and aimed far more at securing/promoting their interests than in anything to do with the war of Ukraine.
It's interesting to see that the BBC team in Moscow is reported heavy GPS jamming in Moscow - which means either someone is genuinely scared of more drone attacks, or that they want to look like it - but of course, this also eats into the Russia as a Great Power narrative.
I think it's unwise to see Putin as Stalin 2.0, and more as the guy not who weilds and uses absolute terror, but as the guy who is successfully (so far) spinning the half a dozen plus plates of the competing power structures that dominate the Russian polity.
The Wagner thing in Bakhmut is, I think, a symptom of this - I think it's illustrative that firstly Prigozhin isn't (that) scared to publicly attack the Russian MOD, but also that the Ru MOD is happy to throw Wagner to the Ukr wolves and to get chewed up for lack of ammunition and support fires. They are competing military powers, and it makes sense for them to try and reduce the strength of the other.
I still don't think it's an official Ukrainian attack - but I'm also not convinced it's an official Ru government false-flag.
I think that one of the things we fail to grasp is how decentralised some elements of the Ukrainian defence system (network? System of systems? Society?) is, and that not all of it is in Ukraine, or under the direct, immediate control or direction of the Ukrainian government - and also how Byzantine the military/security apparatus of the Russian state/polity is - so, imv, it's quite possible that this is a ploy by one element within the Russian element, without reference to the other parts, and aimed far more at securing/promoting their interests than in anything to do with the war of Ukraine.
It's interesting to see that the BBC team in Moscow is reported heavy GPS jamming in Moscow - which means either someone is genuinely scared of more drone attacks, or that they want to look like it - but of course, this also eats into the Russia as a Great Power narrative.
I think it's unwise to see Putin as Stalin 2.0, and more as the guy not who weilds and uses absolute terror, but as the guy who is successfully (so far) spinning the half a dozen plus plates of the competing power structures that dominate the Russian polity.
The Wagner thing in Bakhmut is, I think, a symptom of this - I think it's illustrative that firstly Prigozhin isn't (that) scared to publicly attack the Russian MOD, but also that the Ru MOD is happy to throw Wagner to the Ukr wolves and to get chewed up for lack of ammunition and support fires. They are competing military powers, and it makes sense for them to try and reduce the strength of the other.
LDC
On est tous des pangolins
Just read this this morning (rock 'n' roll life) that touches on the various factions in the Russian elite.
Why Russian Élites Think Putin’s War Is Doomed to Fail
Rival factions are jockeying for power as the country navigates a crisis with no clear way out.
bluescreen
tofu eating wokerati
Thanks, just about to read the archived version of that:Just read this this morning (rock 'n' roll life) that touches on the various factions in the Russian elite.
Why Russian Élites Think Putin’s War Is Doomed to Fail
Rival factions are jockeying for power as the country navigates a crisis with no clear way out.www.newyorker.com
LDC
On est tous des pangolins
Synder makes a very good and clear point in one of his lectures where he says (roughly) is that there isn't a tension between what the Russian people need and the Ukrainians want, and that the best thing in this war for both is for Russia to lose. And that what happens afterwards in Russia is up to Russian people.
His take on the Kremlin drone event here...
His take on the Kremlin drone event here...
DownwardDog
Riding a Brompton with a power meter.
There are other factors though...
Zelenskiy knows better than anyone that he's got to get the ratings up to retain the interest of the West. It's already fucking boring and we don't need to see any more shelled blocks of flats. The time to reboot the franchise is now.
Biden will want this wrapped up, one way or the other, by the start of the 2024 election campaign. If it's still a war of inches then he's going to cop it both from people who didn't think he did enough for Ukraine and also from the people who are going to ask what the fuck the USA just spent $100bn on.
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