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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

ska invita said:
The FT in no doubt who is in charge at NATO - of course its the US
"While American officials have conceded that they may eventually send fighter jets or permit allies to do so, for now US officials say...."
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While you're not wrong that the US is 'in charge' of NATO, the FT quote almost certainly means US-made planes. After all, Ukraine has already received fighter jets from EU countries. MIGs, probably, but it wasn't revealed in the announcement.
 
Portugal has 37 Leopard 2 tanks that it bought , second hand, for 80 million euros from Holland. It's going to send 4 to Ukraine but only 2 are working the others are apparently parked up at a military base.
 
emanymton said:
That just means US made fighters, which they can veto being sent on to a third party. Not to say the US isn't the loudest voice in the room. But you are reading that wrong if you think they are saying that the US is stopping any country sending any fighters to Ukraine.

That might even be the case, but it is not what the FT is saying. I think it is more the case that the countries with control over fighters are on the same page as the US no arm twisting needed.
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That's fair... My confirmation bias
I'm right though 😅
 
UnderAnOpenSky said:
So as well as a few of the new Leopard 2s it looks like Ukraine are to get the old Leopard 1s. Over 100 of them. Some won't be delivered till 2024, so nobody is expecting this to be over anytime soon.

For those who know about tanks how good are they compared to what Russia is mostly using?

www.reuters.com

Germany, Denmark, Netherlands to provide at least 100 Leopard 1 tanks for Kyiv

Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands will pool funds to restore at least 100 old Leopard 1 tanks from industry stocks and supply them to Ukraine, according to a joint statement published on Tuesday.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
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I saw a decent thread on it here if you click through.

 
UnderAnOpenSky said:
So as well as a few of the new Leopard 2s it looks like Ukraine are to get the old Leopard 1s. Over 100 of them. Some won't be delivered till 2024, so nobody is expecting this to be over anytime soon.

For those who know about tanks how good are they compared to what Russia is mostly using?

www.reuters.com

Germany, Denmark, Netherlands to provide at least 100 Leopard 1 tanks for Kyiv

Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands will pool funds to restore at least 100 old Leopard 1 tanks from industry stocks and supply them to Ukraine, according to a joint statement published on Tuesday.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
Click to expand...
I wouldn't want to face a T-90 in one, but they're a great mobile gun platform. Leo1s have no heavy armour to speak of, but a great gun and are highly mobile. They were designed at a time (which we're rolling around back to - the cycle swings back and forth every few decades) when anti-tank weaponry was so absurdly lethal there was little point of protecting from more than 30mm autocannons. it absolutely can't take a hit from a modern AT round, so it belongs behind the front line where it can support with its gun.
 
Sunak saying nothing is off the table doesn't necessarily mean we're giving planes to Ukraine but if we do, that's a big step. However, with Russia making some advances lately in preparation for their spring offensive, I bet Ukraine are puting pressure on more countries than just ours for jets.
It's going to be fucking terrible this spring isn't it
 
krink said:
Sunak saying nothing is off the table doesn't necessarily mean we're giving planes to Ukraine but if we do, that's a big step. However, with Russia making some advances lately in preparation for their spring offensive, I bet Ukraine are puting pressure on more countries than just ours for jets.
It's going to be fucking terrible this spring isn't it
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The indications are there that Russia is planning, and seeking to enact, a large scale, wide front attack. They are dragging absolutely everything in - it's not going to a finessed piece of the military art, it's going to a meat grinder. The plan looks simply to be to overwhelm Ukrainian defences with shere mass: they seek to present the Ukrainians with more tanks and infantry than the Ukrainians have missiles to cope with - and once you've run out of Javelins, or NLAW's, or AT-4 or whatever, even a T-34 that paraded past Stalin is enough to roll past you.
 
kebabking said:
The indications are there that Russia is planning, and seeking to enact, a large scale, wide front attack. They are dragging absolutely everything in - it's not going to a finessed piece of the military art, it's going to a meat grinder. The plan looks simply to be to overwhelm Ukrainian defences with shere mass: they seek to present the Ukrainians with more tanks and infantry than the Ukrainians have missiles to cope with - and once you've run out of Javelins, or NLAW's, or AT-4 or whatever, even a T-34 that paraded past Stalin is enough to roll past you.
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I wonder if it is not a virtual certainty that the Ukrainian defences will be overrun given the length of border that they will be seeking to defend and the numerical advantage the Russians in any case are likely to have.
 
kebabking said:
The indications are there that Russia is planning, and seeking to enact, a large scale, wide front attack. They are dragging absolutely everything in - it's not going to a finessed piece of the military art, it's going to a meat grinder. The plan looks simply to be to overwhelm Ukrainian defences with shere mass: they seek to present the Ukrainians with more tanks and infantry than the Ukrainians have missiles to cope with - and once you've run out of Javelins, or NLAW's, or AT-4 or whatever, even a T-34 that paraded past Stalin is enough to roll past you.
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If it fails then would they have the resources to be able to do it again or is this a last desperate attempt?
 
kebabking said:
It's amusing, and not not remotely surprising, that the number of times you have been wrong has never once impacted on the certainty which which you hold your opinions.

There are words for that...
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Am I wrong the US is the boss of NATO?
Am I wrong Russia are successfully holding their occupied territories?
What else am I so wrong about?
 
krink said:
Sunak saying nothing is off the table doesn't necessarily mean we're giving planes to Ukraine but if we do, that's a big step. However, with Russia making some advances lately in preparation for their spring offensive, I bet Ukraine are puting pressure on more countries than just ours for jets.
It's going to be fucking terrible this spring isn't it
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We hardly have any to give, though the symbolism might help other countries step forward
 
The UK has a rather convenient batch of Typhoon (Tranche 1) fighters that are due to be retired in 2025 - I think it's about 40 airframes in total, but a good number (half?) have been cannibalised to keep the others in the air.

Tranche 1 was a bit of a cul-de-sac - after they were produced, primarily for the Air-to-air role with an 'austere' air to ground capability, the design changed significantly and it's simply not possible to upgrade the Tranche 1 into T2/3/4 etc... Obviously it's possible, it would just require a rebuilding of the airframe to the point where buying a new T3 would be cheaper...

20 Typhoons would help Ukraine, no doubt about it, but they aren't going to end the war. Their value - rather like the Challenger tanks - is to 'break the mold' of hitherto western support.

The really big issue that the west is going to have to face is that without 'safe havens', Ukraine is going to struggle to operate western fighters to their fullest potential - for me, if we want Ukraine to win, and to do so as quickly as possible, then Ukraine needs to be able to base it's aircraft in NATO member states, free from Ru interference. That's a very big step, though it should be remembered that both Russia and China have hosted other states belligerent aircraft where the US couldn't get to them, and it didn't start WW3...
 
kebabking said:
The UK has a rather convenient batch of Typhoon (Tranche 1) fighters that are due to be retired in 2025 - I think it's about 40 airframes in total, but a good number (half?) have been cannibalised to keep the others in the air.

Tranche 1 was a bit of a cul-de-sac - after they were produced, primarily for the Air-to-air role with an 'austere' air to ground capability, the design changed significantly and it's simply not possible to upgrade the Tranche 1 into T2/3/4 etc... Obviously it's possible, it would just require a rebuilding of the airframe to the point where buying a new T3 would be cheaper...

20 Typhoons would help Ukraine, no doubt about it, but they aren't going to end the war. Their value - rather like the Challenger tanks - is to 'break the mold' of hitherto western support.

The really big issue that the west is going to have to face is that without 'safe havens', Ukraine is going to struggle to operate western fighters to their fullest potential - for me, if we want Ukraine to win, and to do so as quickly as possible, then Ukraine needs to be able to base it's aircraft in NATO member states, free from Ru interference. That's a very big step, though it should be remembered that both Russia and China have hosted other states belligerent aircraft where the US couldn't get to them, and it didn't start WW3...
Click to expand...

All of the Tranche 1s (apart from the 4 at IX(B)) are going into reduce-to-produce in order to help sustain Typhoon until Tempest/Global Hyper Fighter is ready. That's billions of pounds worth of parts - the engines are 7 million quid each. Giving all of that away will cripple the Typhoon force in the second half of this decade.

Tranche 1 Typhoon + AIM120 gets the Ukrainians back on close to par with the Su-35 + Adder though but does nothing to fix their lack of SEAD/AWACS.
 
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DownwardDog said:
All of the Tranche 1s (apart from the 4 at IX(B)) are going into reduce-to-produce in order to help sustain Typhoon until Tempest/Global Hyper Fighter is ready. That's billions of pounds worth of parts - the engines are 7 million quid each. Giving all of that away will cripple the Typhoon force in the second half of this decade.

Tranche 1 Typhoon + AIM120 gets the Ukrainians back on close to par with the Su-35 + Adder though but does nothing to fix their lack of SEAD/AWACS.
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Yup, it's far more than 'a load of airframes we're about to retire anyway'. The Army faces a similar issue with the AS-90's - that 30 SPG's is the better part of the whole capability, without out them any hope of fielding a moderately serious Armoured formation is nowt but mist. MOD has accelerated the replacement Medium Fires Platform to replace AS-90, but there's still going to be a period in which there's a big hole.

Potentially cheaper (better?) to buy older F-16's from NATO states, and then gift them to Ukraine...
 
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