Putin relies on his oligarch class and hangers on to maintain power. Why would he press the button? All that would come to an end for all of them which, presumably, they don't desire.
Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24
- Thread starter kebabking
- Start date
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
I would think that the relationships are much more two way than that. I think it's a much more like a series of circular power relationships - that he needs them, and they need him.
I also think it would be unwise to ascribe a particular pattern or thread of rationality to him/his circle - they are simply motivated by stuff we don't really grasp, and in proportions (hopes/fears/greed etc..) that we don't understand - nor do we understand how the events of the last year, as they understand them, have influenced those thought patterns among the different individuals.
I fully accept that I don't understand and I'm mostly projecting; kind of scary that you don't understand either.
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
None of us perfectly understand the people we spend our lives with. The idea that we might perfectly understand someone we don't know is foolish.
We have some solid knowledge of the factors that make him /some of his circle tick, but the idea that we would understand exactly what's going on inside his head - unless CIA or SIS have bugged his inner monologue - is to fail to understand that this is about people, and people can be unpredictable, particularly when placed in new/stressful circumstances.
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Interesting article which speculates on the tactics that the US wants Ukraine to adopt versus the tactics Ukraine are using
Yossarian
⏭️
More than 66,000 Russian war crimes now reported - works out to a little over one every seven minutes since the invasion, and doesn't include many crimes in Mariupol and other areas that are still occupied.
Over 66,000 additional alleged war crimes have been reported to Ukrainian authorities since the Russian invasion last February, according to Ukraine’s Office of the Prosecutor General. The number is growing by hundreds every day as investigators fan out into areas retaken from the Russians and Ukrainians step up to lodge complaints, ranging from the theft of property to torture, murder, rape, the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia and the relentless missile strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure.
Over 66,000 additional alleged war crimes have been reported to Ukrainian authorities since the Russian invasion last February, according to Ukraine’s Office of the Prosecutor General. The number is growing by hundreds every day as investigators fan out into areas retaken from the Russians and Ukrainians step up to lodge complaints, ranging from the theft of property to torture, murder, rape, the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia and the relentless missile strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure.
hash tag
Books, not bombs
I though when I first heard this it was djokovic but still poor
metro.co.uk
Novak Djokovic's dad poses with Russian flag at Australian Open
Tournament organisers have issued a reminder to players and their entourages about their policy on 'inappropriate flags'.
metro.co.uk
TopCat
Putin fanboy
CNN reports the US is wanting Ukraine to change their battle approach
Chz
Stark Raving Sane
Petr Pavel: Ex-general beats populist rival in Czech election
Defeated former PM Andrej Babis conceded to retired Nato general Petr Pavel on Saturday afternoon.
www.bbc.co.uk
The Czechs have elected a retired NATO general over their populist, slightly Trumpish former PM. The tipping point in the run up was when Babis said that he wouldn't commit the Czech army to Poland's defense in the case of Russian attack. (Essentially breaking NATO obligations). His loss was well received in Poland.
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 30, 2023
Western, Ukrainian, and Russian sources continue to indicate that Russia is preparing for an imminent offensive, supporting ISW’s assessm...
not-bono-ever
meh
Game changer
Russia receives 30 vintage T-34/85 tanks from Laos
Russia's Ministry of Defence (MoD) announced on 9 January that the country received 30 vintage T-34/85 medium tanks from Laos that are to be used in military parades, museum exhibitions, and films about World War II. Russia received 30 vintage T-34/85 tanks from Laos in early January. The tanks are
www.janes.com
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
Russia are advancing on several fronts at the moment, at considerable cost, but they’re happy expending lives for it. Ukraine don’t have the resources to counterattack right now, with western tanks still likely a couple of months away. Hope they can hold out the defence until then, Russia rumoured to be sending 200,000 troops to attack in the south and east, more than they used in the initial invasion across a much wider front.Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 30, 2023
Western, Ukrainian, and Russian sources continue to indicate that Russia is preparing for an imminent offensive, supporting ISW’s assessm...www.criticalthreats.org
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
It was the name of the village that I was highlighting tbh.
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
The original interview with Baur was on RTP news Portugal but I cant find a proper translation of it . However from what I can find I am not at all sure if this is the right message to put out tbh
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
The IOC are frankly a bunch of fuckwits.
Supine
Newt Member
Bbc last weekend i think
Yossarian
⏭️
IOC gives green light for Russian and Belarusian athletes at Paris Olympics
Ukrainian Athletes and Global Athlete critical of decision after board suggests individuals can compete as ‘neutral athletes’ at 2024 Games
spitfire
Walty McWaltface
Thread explaining the dark logic behind the human wave attacks at Bakhmut. I debated whether to put it in the Rumours thread but figured it would be of interest to people watching this larger thread so here it is with caveats. I don't know if that website is legit but Chris O seems to be fairly on it generally.
CW - violent content
Original source:
rucriminal.info
CW - violent content
Original source:
Идущие на смерть… - RUCRIMINAL Истина любит действовать открыто.
О том, какой ценой дается штурм Соледара и других украинских населенных пунктов можно понять из рассказа источника телеграм-канала ВЧК-ОГПУ.
rucriminal.info
Last edited:
UnderOpenSky
baseline neural therapy
Thread explaining the dark logic behind the human wave attacks at Bakhmut. I debated whether to put it in the Rumours thread but figured it would be of interest to people watching this larger thread so here it is with caveats. I don't know if that website is legit but Chris O seems to be fairly on it generally.
Original source:
Идущие на смерть… - RUCRIMINAL Истина любит действовать открыто.
О том, какой ценой дается штурм Соледара и других украинских населенных пунктов можно понять из рассказа источника телеграм-канала ВЧК-ОГПУ.
That's pretty horrific reading.
spitfire
Walty McWaltface
It is, I try and avoid comparisons to WW2 but the only time I heard of "discipline" like that was in USSR/Nazi punishment battalions and towards the end of the war during the German collapse when it became more widespread practice.
I guess there could be parallels with the fact there are a lot of criminals in Wagner but christ almighty...
I've added a CW and spoilered the tweet.
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Curious story as according to Reuters "Some national Olympic committees, including Olympic heavyweights United States, have backed the possible return of those athletes under a neutral flag."
There is a lot more in here however this decision seems to have been made on the back of consultation rather than just by the committee itself and a couple of days later the IOC reaffirmed its backing for sanctions and rejected Ukraine's criticism "The IOC rejects in the strongest possible terms this and other defamatory statements," the IOC said in a statement. "They cannot serve as a basis for any constructive discussion."
IOC claims support for Russian return after Zelenskyy voices opposition
existentialist
Tired and unemotional
I think it's tempting to think "Oh, Hitler, Nazis, etc, thank goodness that's all in the past", and then something like this comes along and it's so obviously not all in the past.
The horrifying thing is that, at least in the short term, it WORKS
I'm listening to Al Murray's podcasts about Stalingrad at the moment, and there's a very similar vibe going on there - NKVD "blocking" forces that patrolled behind the lines and executed any soldiers who fled the almost-certain death on the battlefield itself. There's plenty of precedent.
UnderOpenSky
baseline neural therapy
That reminds me, I keep meaning to do a thread about history podcasts. I don't do almost as many long drives as I used to, but they do pass the time well.
NoXion
Craicy the Squirrel
I think it's tempting to think "Oh, Hitler, Nazis, etc, thank goodness that's all in the past", and then something like this comes along and it's so obviously not all in the past.
The horrifying thing is that, at least in the short term, it WORKS
I'm listening to Al Murray's podcasts about Stalingrad at the moment, and there's a very similar vibe going on there - NKVD "blocking" forces that patrolled behind the lines and executed any soldiers who fled the almost-certain death on the battlefield itself. There's plenty of precedent.
Are any of these "blocking" forces in the current conflict within range of Ukrainian ordnance? I would be interested in hearing if there have been any attacks on such forces and if so, what effect they've had on the disposition of the Russian troops they're effectively holding a gun to the back of. Seems like it would be a two-for-one deal, weakening resolve while also eliminating the troops more likely to have decent weapons.
existentialist
Tired and unemotional
AIUI, there are multiple layers of blocking forces around Bakhmut - convicts in front, mobiks behind, and regular troops behind them. Although that looks to be changing. But yes, it would strike me as quite a sound tactical move to take out the blocking forces and thus diminish the "resolve" of the frontline troops.
You thinking of getting one to sort out your supermercado trips?
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Fascinating article on Denys Kireyev . If posters remember he was the bloke who was later killed after attending the initial peace negotiations.
www.kyivpost.com
Double Agent or Hero: Who Was Denys Kireyev and Why Was He Killed?
Suspected of being a traitor helping the Russians, Denys Kireyev was reportedly killed by the Ukrainian secret services. But was he in fact a double agent?
_Russ_
Never not Knowingly Misunderstood
A limited and probably temporary shift in the balance of Turkey's allegiances that seems on the face it positive news in regards to fucking off Putin and his mates
Turkey suspends the maintenance of Russian, Belarusian and Iranian aircraft manufactured by Boeing and Airbus.
Havaş’tan Rus, İran ve Belaruslu şirketlere uyarı
Turkey suspends the maintenance of Russian, Belarusian and Iranian aircraft manufactured by Boeing and Airbus.
Havaş’tan Rus, İran ve Belaruslu şirketlere uyarı
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