Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[Pickman's model]

A limited and probably temporary shift in the balance of Turkey's allegiances that seems on the face it positive news in regards to fucking off Putin and his mates

Turkey suspends the maintenance of Russian, Belarusian and Iranian aircraft manufactured by Boeing and Airbus.

Havaş’tan Rus, İran ve Belaruslu şirketlere uyarı

Yeh this would be the turkey which has supplied loads of drones and rocket systems to Ukraine eg https://eurasiantimes.com/turkey-delivers-its-own-himars-to-ukraine-can-wreak-havoc/?amp. Fuck knows why you paint this as a shift in allegiances, it's not like turkey has been on russia's side

 

[_Russ_]

Russia are advancing on several fronts at the moment, at considerable cost, but they’re happy expending lives for it. Ukraine don’t have the resources to counterattack right now, with western tanks still likely a couple of months away. Hope they can hold out the defence until then, Russia rumoured to be sending 200,000 troops to attack in the south and east, more than they used in the initial invasion across a much wider front.

Ukraine Intel thinks many more than 200,000. The footage of action on the Ukraine side seems lately to be mostly of small mortar firings and Self propelled artillery, gives the impression supply of HIMARS and other MLRS has greatly diminished...hope thats not so and realise im basing that impression on very very limited info

Russia preparing to mobilise extra 500,000 conscripts, claims Ukraine

 

[Pickman's model]

Ukraine Intel thinks many more than 200,000. The footage of action on the Ukraine side seems lately to be mostly of small mortar firings and Self propelled artillery, gives the impression supply of HIMARS and other MLRS has greatly diminished...hope thats not so and realise im basing that impression on very very limited info

Russia preparing to mobilise extra 500,000 conscripts, claims Ukraine

You've never heard of operational security it seems

 

[Artaxerxes]

That reminds me, I keep meaning to do a thread about history podcasts. I don't do almost as many long drives as I used to, but they do pass the time well.

Hardcore history is a good entry one, it has its problems but they are long old boys

 

[Dogsauce]

Ukraine Intel thinks many more than 200,000. The footage of action on the Ukraine side seems lately to be mostly of small mortar firings and Self propelled artillery, gives the impression supply of HIMARS and other MLRS has greatly diminished...hope thats not so and realise im basing that impression on very very limited info

Russia preparing to mobilise extra 500,000 conscripts, claims Ukraine

Russia has reportedly destroyed at least 42 HIMARS systems, out of the 20 supplied. That’ll probably be it.

 

[spitfire]

Russia has reportedly destroyed at least 42 HIMARS systems, out of the 20 supplied. That’ll probably be it.

Done some Bradleys last week as well.

 

[_Russ_]

Russia has reportedly destroyed at least 42 HIMARS systems, out of the 20 supplied. That’ll probably be it.

My sides are splitting, what's your impression of the weapons supply situation Im all ears

 

[Pickman's model]

My sides are splitting, what's your impression of the weapons supply situation Im all ears

All ears but no brain.

 

[StoneRoad]

The ru55ians have recently lost a couple of TOR anti-aircraft units [somewhere to the east of Kherson] - one of which was, apparently, taken out by a single item attack. [I'm paraphrasing ISW reporting - to my mind, that was probably HIMARS or an "intelligent" 155mm round].

also, the first Canadian Leopard2 is on the way ...

 

[AmateurAgitator]

No you fucking won't. You're banned from this thread for a week.

Would just like to say that though I'm a bit of a political misfit here and not here as often as I used to be - I don't completely write this place off. Theres some good stuff here and some nice and genuine people and its an informative site with some good humour aswell. And I appreciate that yourself and the admins work hard editor.

 

[bcuster]

Yup, the "pliant majority". they cause many of the serious problems by omission

How Russians Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the War

The pliant majority sustaining Putin’s rule.

www.foreignaffairs.com

 

[StoneRoad]

Yup, the "pliant majority". they cause many of the serious problems by omission

How Russians Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the War

The pliant majority sustaining Putin’s rule.

www.foreignaffairs.com

as in a) brainwashed by an effective propaganda machine and b) efficient dissent suppression

 

[Chz]

I've always had the impression from Russians I've known over the years that they don't particularly believe their government's propaganda. But that's because they don't believe anything that anyone tells them. The culture is so cynical that most tend to assume they're being lied to at every turn. And faced with that, they tend to pick the lie they're most comfortable with. You couple that with the fact that they do believe that Russia is the bastion of civilisation and the baying hordes of the rest of the world are all out to get them (tbf, most of the world isn't too friendly towards them right now) and their outlook seems almost logical.

The Americans have never understood how they can be so cynical, and the Russians have never understood how the Americans can be so earnest.

 

[Lorca]

There seems, from a distance at least, to be a tacit agreement between ordinary Russians and Putin along the lines of - 'you don't interfere with the politics and I won't interfere with you too much (unless you're gay etc.)

 

[cupid_stunt]

There seems, from a distance at least, to be a tacit agreement between ordinary Russians and Putin along the lines of -

 

[Pickman's model]

There seems, from a distance at least, to be a tacit agreement between ordinary Russians and Putin along the lines of -

View attachment 362316

no one mentions the war although the special military operation is a topic of widespread conversation

 

[tep]

I've always had the impression from Russians I've known over the years that they don't particularly believe their government's propaganda. But that's because they don't believe anything that anyone tells them. The culture is so cynical that most tend to assume they're being lied to at every turn. And faced with that, they tend to pick the lie they're most comfortable with. You couple that with the fact that they do believe that Russia is the bastion of civilisation and the baying hordes of the rest of the world are all out to get them (tbf, most of the world isn't too friendly towards them right now) and their outlook seems almost logical.

The Americans have never understood how they can be so cynical, and the Russians have never understood how the Americans can be so earnest.

To non Russian eyes cynical is more like mystical and mysticism plays a big role in all parts of the Russian command structure which is one of the reasons that Dugin or Dugin's family was targetted so early on.

 

[TopCat]

Seems to be an increasing disconnect between trumpeted Ukrainian achievements and reports of piss poor Russian soldiers with no kit and no air or missile support and increasing reports of a major Russian offensive involving huge numbers.

I find it concerning as well that the Ukrainian high command seem to instruct their soldiers to fight to the last as if they have never considered the benefits of retreating.

 

[Fez909]

I find it concerning as well that the Ukrainian high command seem to instruct their soldiers to fight to the last as if they have never considered the benefits of retreating.

where has this happened?

 

[TopCat]

where has this happened?

Mariupol, Bakhmut, a couple of other towns reported.

 

[Fez909]

reported

care to share the reports?

 

[LDC]

Amazing he has access to military orders to troops on the ground, as surely he's not just going by media reports?

 

[TopCat]

care to share the reports?

I don’t keep a file! Try todays Guardian for instance regarding the defence of Bakhmut.

 

[Fez909]

I don’t keep a file! Try todays Guardian for instance regarding the defence of Bakhmut.

Translation: I made it up.

Here's some evidence* that you're talking bollocks, btw: Ukraine confirms retreat from eastern town of Soledar to "preserve the lives of personnel"

*For anyone else reading, btw. I don't know why TC feels the need to lie about this, but there's clearly an agenda of some sort, so not trying to convince him.

 

[ska invita]

The FT in no doubt who is in charge at NATO - of course its the US
"While American officials have conceded that they may eventually send fighter jets or permit allies to do so, for now US officials say...."

 

[Pickman's model]

Translation: I made it up.

Here's some evidence* that you're talking bollocks, btw: Ukraine confirms retreat from eastern town of Soledar to "preserve the lives of personnel"

*For anyone else reading, btw. I don't know why TC feels the need to lie about this, but there's clearly an agenda of some sort, so not trying to convince him.

Everyone has an agenda

 

[Pickman's model]

To non Russian eyes cynical is more like mystical and mysticism plays a big role in all parts of the Russian command structure which is one of the reasons that Dugin or Dugin's family was targetted so early on.

Yeh and that'd never happen in western countries, we're all too rational. Apart from the likes of Ronald Reagan and George w Bush who believed all sorts of cobblers etc

 

[existentialist]

Zelenskiy is coming to the UK today.

Sunak says ‘nothing off the table’ after Zelenskiy’s plea for fighter jets – as it happened

Ukrainian president earlier urged parliament ‘give us wings’ to protect freedom

www.theguardian.com

 

[emanymton]

The FT in no doubt who is in charge at NATO - of course its the US
"While American officials have conceded that they may eventually send fighter jets or permit allies to do so, for now US officials say...."

That just means US made fighters, which they can veto being sent on to a third party. Not to say the US isn't the loudest voice in the room. But you are reading that wrong if you think they are saying that the US is stopping any country sending any fighters to Ukraine.

That might even be the case, but it is not what the FT is saying. I think it is more the case that the countries with control over fighters are on the same page as the US no arm twisting needed.

 

[UnderOpenSky]

So as well as a few of the new Leopard 2s it looks like Ukraine are to get the old Leopard 1s. Over 100 of them. Some won't be delivered till 2024, so nobody is expecting this to be over anytime soon.

For those who know about tanks how good are they compared to what Russia is mostly using?

Germany, Denmark, Netherlands to provide at least 100 Leopard 1 tanks for Kyiv

Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands will pool funds to restore at least 100 old Leopard 1 tanks from industry stocks and supply them to Ukraine, according to a joint statement published on Tuesday.

www.reuters.com