Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[StoneRoad]

IIRC one of the brakes on the supply of HIMARS was training the Ukrainians, but that process seems to have been both developed and shortened somewhat by the pressures to become operational as quickly as possible. And how fast the very motivated trainees are picking up the skills needed.

I suspect that something similar will happen with the Leopards - and IMO it is distinctly possible that some discreet training has already been happening when the HIMAR courses have been underway to provide some cover.

 

[A380]

To be fair some people wear those heels if one leg is shorter than the other. Perhaps he's just got two legs shorter than each other.

No, that would be silly; apparently he two legs longer than each other...

 

[Dogsauce]

Poland has already sent them jets, albeit soviet era ones. These were officially classed as ‘spare parts’ at the time, but the spares happened to include fuselages and wings…

 

[Dogsauce]

I do wonder why they haven’t supplied more HIMARS since they’ve been proven effective and the US has hundreds of them in storage. I think the limitation is the missiles themselves which are quite expensive and aren’t produced in the kind of volumes that they might be used at.

 

[Raheem]

No, that would be silly; apparently he two legs longer than each other...

My understanding is that one is longer and one is the same length.

 

[teuchter]

Humourous, but perhaps telling...

Short shaming still acceptable on u75 then.

 

[StoneRoad]

I do wonder why they haven’t supplied more HIMARS since they’ve been proven effective and the US has hundreds of them in storage. I think the limitation is the missiles themselves which are quite expensive and aren’t produced in the kind of volumes that they might be used at.

Especially as UKR are not getting the longer range munitions, and it would appear that the ru55ians are keeping some higher value targets further back and thus out of the available range.

 

[existentialist]

IIRC one of the brakes on the supply of HIMARS was training the Ukrainians, but that process seems to have been both developed and shortened somewhat by the pressures to become operational as quickly as possible. And how fast the very motivated trainees are picking up the skills needed.

I suspect that something similar will happen with the Leopards - and IMO it is distinctly possible that some discreet training has already been happening when the HIMAR courses have been underway to provide some cover.

There was an interesting explanation about this, which suggested that the previous 20 years in Ukraine - notwithstanding the corrupt oligarch legacy it was left with - had been a time of great social change, with young people developing tech and IT skills at an above-average rate compared to, say, Russia.

With the result that you can throw "new stuff" at them, and they'll figure out how to get it working faster than the sort of person, say, who thinks a spanner is just an odd-shaped hammer.

 

[MickiQ]

a spanner is just an odd-shaped hammer.

When push comes to shove, everything is just an odd-shaped hammer

 

[kebabking]

Short shaming still acceptable on u75 then.

Short is fine. Pretending to be something else - less so.

Haven't you got some strangers toilets to be pestering?

 

[Dystopiary]

Russian missile attacks across Ukraine today have killed 11 people and injured 11 more.

 

[Dogsauce]

Meanwhile, Ukraine can’t have missiles that can reach more than about 85km to strike back at the cunts because that would be ‘escalatory’.

 

[Supine]

Lockheed Martin are ramping up production of F-16’s to allow backfill if/when jets are given to Ukraine.

Lockheed Martin ready with F-16s as Ukraine’s allies revive debate over fighter jets

Some of Kyiv’s European allies consider options even as US and Germany rule out sending aircraft

www.ft.com

 

[Pickman's model]

Lockheed Martin are ramping up production of F-16’s to allow backfill if/when jets are given to Ukraine.

Lockheed Martin ready with F-16s as Ukraine’s allies revive debate over fighter jets

Some of Kyiv’s European allies consider options even as US and Germany rule out sending aircraft

www.ft.com

Didn't know you subscribed to the ft. Maybe you could bust the paywall

 

[The39thStep]

Meanwhile, Ukraine can’t have missiles that can reach more than about 85km to strike back at the cunts because that would be ‘escalatory’.

Which potential supplier is saying this and why are they saying it ?

 

[kebabking]

Which potential supplier is saying this and why are they saying it ?

Currently the US is supplying - and allowing to be supplied - the standard ranged M31 GMLRS rocket - there's an Extended Range version at *about 130km, and perhaps more crucially, a rocket called ATACMS, which is a much larger rocket, which can also be fired from the US HIMARS and British M270 Vehicles.

It will go out to 300km. Ukraine would quite like that, as it would mean hitting airbases and logistics hubs inside Russia - it would also mean that Russia would have to attempt to provide to provide air defence systems across a much wider/deeper area, thereby stretching them thinner, and making the whole lot less effective, and opening up further opportunities for the Ukrainian air force.

 

[The39thStep]

Currently the US is supplying - and allowing to be supplied - the standard ranged M31 GMLRS rocket - there's an Extended Range version at *about 130km, and perhaps more crucially, a rocket called ATACMS, which is a much larger rocket, which can also be fired from the US HIMARS and British M270 Vehicles.

It will go out to 300km. Ukraine would quite like that, as it would mean hitting airbases and logistics hubs inside Russia - it would also mean that Russia would have to attempt to provide to provide air defence systems across a much wider/deeper area, thereby stretching them thinner, and making the whole lot less effective, and opening up further opportunities for the Ukrainian air force.

Ta mate, have you any idea of the reasons of why they are saying it would be 'escalatory '

 

[Artaxerxes]

Ta mate, have you any idea of the reasons of why they are saying it would be 'escalatory '

It's been that case since the start, there is understandable concern that hitting to much inside mother Russia will trigger one of Vlad's temper tantrums and it'll go full nuclear.

 

[kebabking]

Ta mate, have you any idea of the reasons of why they are saying it would be 'escalatory '

I think there are two - pictures of destruction inside Mother Russia might start a spiral of panic/reaction inside Putins circle. Having to be seen to react to that with huge force is one of the prerequisites of the nationalist strongman. Which of course could have some very negative outcomes...

The other is that it's a ballistic missile - it goes straight up, and it would look to someone who saw it on radar like the kind of ballistic missiles that Russia puts nukes on. The downside of Ru media and govt putting deranged shit on the news every night for years is that at some point, people will start to believe it - even the people parroting it.

There is still a fear of scaring Putin. If Russia loses, or really starts to look like it's losing, then his future is bleak - we already know he's paranoid, we already know he's quite capable of grabbing the wrong end of the stick, and we already know he's very thin skinned about how he is perceived within Russia and by outsiders - and that he has a history of escalating when he hits a problem.

 

[nogojones]

Ta mate, have you any idea of the reasons of why they are saying it would be 'escalatory '

I think it would be the idea of yank munitions falling on Russian soil being a bit escalatory.

The Ukrainians have been punting the odd drone at Russian airbases, but they've been using old Soviet stuff with go-faster stripes stuck on

 

[The39thStep]

I think there are two - pictures of destruction inside Mother Russia might start a spiral of panic/reaction inside Putins circle. Having to be seen to react to that with huge force is one of the prerequisites of the nationalist strongman. Which of course could have some very negative outcomes...

The other is that it's a ballistic missile - it goes straight up, and it would look to someone who saw it on radar like the kind of ballistic missiles that Russia puts nukes on. The downside of Ru media and govt putting deranged shit on the news every night for years is that at some point, people will start to believe it - even the people parroting it.

There is still a fear of scaring Putin. If Russia loses, or really starts to look like it's losing, then his future is bleak - we already know he's paranoid, we already know he's quite capable of grabbing the wrong end of the stick, and we already know he's very thin skinned about how he is perceived within Russia and by outsiders - and that he has a history of escalating when he hits a problem.

I can certainly see the logic of such an action being escalatory rather than 'escalatory'

 

[Artaxerxes]

It's a matter of trying to make the Russian state deflate rather than explode. To much damage to fast leads to the leadership flailing out as it dies. Bleed it to death and Putin gets dealt with by a growing coalition of affected parties.

 

[The39thStep]

It's a matter of trying to make the Russian state deflate rather than explode. To much damage to fast leads to the leadership flailing out as it dies. Bleed it to death and Putin gets dealt with by a growing coalition of affected parties.

And this growing coalition is made up of who?

 

[Artaxerxes]

And this growing coalition is made up of who?

Fuck knows at this point.

 

[The39thStep]

Fuck knows at this point.

Well, not everything is about risk assessment and forward planning I suppose. We'll be in touch.

 

[emanymton]

BTW I agree with you that NATO probably hasn't got one grand plan but it will certainly have scenarios that will have been risked assessed and they will be updated as the war ebbs and flows and dynamics change.


I think there are some lines within both NATO and the EU, some blurred, some absolute but they are about the type of military support and what it could be used for, not military support in itself. Off the top of my head, I can think of Hungary as a NATO state that isn't supplying arms but both Turkey and Poland who you mentioned are. What other NATO countries did you have in mind who don't support Ukraine militarily?

Hungary is the big one of course, I wonder how different NATO response would be without Hungary? Then other counties are less hawkish, (or have elements within them that are) than others. Compare Germany with the Uk or US. Turkey is an odd one I honestly don't know enough about Turkey to speculate, but pretty sure they aren't looking at things the same as Poland.

Mainly I just object to their being some kind of big NATO plan, when it is more likely there are big disagreements and heated meetings within NATO at the moment.

 

[UnderOpenSky]

Lockheed Martin are ramping up production of F-16’s to allow backfill if/when jets are given to Ukraine.

Lockheed Martin ready with F-16s as Ukraine’s allies revive debate over fighter jets

Some of Kyiv’s European allies consider options even as US and Germany rule out sending aircraft

www.ft.com

Obviously it's about money, but I still find it interesting the F 16 is still in production and yet the F22 isn't.

 

[Pickman's model]

Obviously it's about money, but I still find it interesting the F 16 is still in production and yet the F22 isn't.

High cost, focus on counterinsurgency at the time, it not being exported apparently.

 

[Cid]

Obviously it's about money, but I still find it interesting the F 16 is still in production and yet the F22 isn't.

Can't export the F-22 either. Which I realise is also money, but assume you were talking base cost.

e2a: as pickman's says

 

[ska invita]

Mainly I just object to their being some kind of big NATO plan, when it is more likely there are big disagreements and heated meetings within NATO at the moment.

Seems clear that USA is setting the agenda and other NATO countries are finding their place within it, no?
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