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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

If we're to apply these rules to all questions asked on Urban75 (even just the 'serious' threads) most of the answers are going to be 'cause I was bored/curious/drunk/fancied a chat/fight etc.' It's a very high standard to hold us to and not one that has been evenly applied.
It’s cropping up here because it’s a highly emotive subject and motivation matters to the reality of good/bad faith.

And it actually does crop up everywhere — we’ve seen numerous references in the last few pages to “why is urban always like this?” Well, that’s why.
 
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Fuck me, why not just deal with the substantive content instead of demanding a psychoanalytical shakedown?
What do you view as the substantive content, and what are you going to do about the fact that other people might have a different view about where the substantive part lies? I think my responses to you have been pretty bloody substantive, to be honest. Far more so than you’ve given me in return.
 
What do you view as the substantive content, and what are you going to do about the fact that other people might have a different view about where the substantive part lies? I think my responses to you have been pretty bloody substantive, to be honest. Far more so than you’ve given me in return.
Really? By expecting me to jump through some hoops of your understanding regarding an ambiguous question you haven’t pointed to. Ok.
 
What is irritating and happens frequently, including this recent example, and maomao is quite right on, is that folk are eager to pounce on what they perceive as your motivations. If you’re not singing perfectly from the hymn sheet then you must secretly support Russia really.

The issue is that your argument and questioning (and those of a few others here) boil down to wanting to blame NATO for the crisis when that is very demonstrably not the case. There has long been a section of U75 who will take the side of any enemy of America or the west, and traditionally they’ve received some support on these boards with the majority of posters highly critical of US/western foreign military policy. Here though there’s a very large consensus. Most see the causes of the conflict as pretty black and white so the motivations of those who don’t come into question. We’ve even had a poster here suggesting that the yanks blew-up the Nordstream pipelines.

“My enemy’s enemy …” has always been a stupid proposition, but when it starts to encroach on conspiracy theory nonsense, people really lose patience.
 
The issue is that your argument and questioning (and those of a few others here) boil down to wanting to blame NATO for the crisis when that is very demonstrably not the case. There has long been a section of U75 who will take the side of any enemy of America or the west, and traditionally they’ve received some support on these boards with the majority of posters highly critical of US/western foreign military policy. Here though there’s a very large consensus. Most see the causes of the conflict as pretty black and white so the motivations of those who don’t come into question. We’ve even had a poster here suggesting that the yanks blew-up the Nordstream pipelines.

“My enemy’s enemy …” has always been a stupid proposition, but when it starts to encroach on conspiracy theory nonsense, people really lose patience.
Tbh there are a number of causes to how we got here and nato expansion is one of them. But i don't believe it ought to assume the significance as THE cause. There are long term causes and there are short term causes, there are major causes and minor causes. And ignoring any sort of nuance or complexity simply to say the west dunnit seems to me a very facile position
 
The issue is that your argument and questioning (and those of a few others here) boil down to wanting to blame NATO for the crisis when that is very demonstrably not the case. There has long been a section of U75 who will take the side of any enemy of America or the west, and traditionally they’ve received some support on these boards with the majority of posters highly critical of US/western foreign military policy. Here though there’s a very large consensus. Most see the causes of the conflict as pretty black and white so the motivations of those who don’t come into question. We’ve even had a poster here suggesting that the yanks blew-up the Nordstream pipelines.

“My enemy’s enemy …” has always been a stupid proposition, but when it starts to encroach on conspiracy theory nonsense, people really lose patience.
But you’re projecting a position onto me. I don’t support any state but certainly not a gangster one led by murdering scum.
It could therefore be argued that any support for Ukraine could be ‘my enemy’s enemy’ by the same token.
 
When somebody says to me that they were clubbed over the head and left to die, I don’t ask, “yes, but what did you do to deserve it?”
Not really a serviceable analogy as even those who blame NATO aren't blaming Ukraine themselves. In fact you seem to be suggesting that violent crime is purely the result of bad actors and has no social context.
 
What is irritating and happens frequently, including this recent example, and maomao is quite right on, is that folk are eager to pounce on what they perceive as your motivations. If you’re not singing perfectly from the hymn sheet then you must secretly support Russia really.
Oh, you poor misunderstood victim. 🤗
 
So why didn't Putin / Russia (right now I can't see any clear difference) start negotiations years ago around spheres of influence, NATO expansion, "buffer states", neighbours joining the EU, etc etc all the stuff we're saying "contributed" to this war? I mean, explicitly and publicly and in full view like a statesperson. Why solve the problem by military means? Was there really no other way for him to address these "concerns"?

Why does Ukraine have to negotiate now, not to lose bits of itself, when Russia wouldn't negotiate before to maintain its sphere of influence / check NATO expansion? Why has Putin's state been murdering dissidents, threatening neighbours and promoting conspiracism for years?

There's a massive double standard here, where Russia is being treated as if it's a nation without agency, so weak it had no choice but to lash out. While other states have to give up bits, Russia gets to just take them. Fine, if we want to live with that, personally it's unlikely to affect me me me, but why would anyone argue that this state is behaving in any way legitimately? If the USA did the same in Mexico, or if/when China did/does the same in Taiwan or Kashmir, I can't imagine the same defence springing up from the UK left. Not at all.
 
Not really a serviceable analogy as even those who blame NATO aren't blaming Ukraine themselves. In fact you seem to be suggesting that violent crime is purely the result of bad actors and has no social context.
Actually, I’m asking what is the purpose of the questions:

So let me ask: what is the purpose in asking about Putin’s “true” perception of NATO? What comes next in this series of questions? If we were to conclude that Putin was, in fact, terrified of NATO’s shadow, what does that change? Does it matter how NATO actually acts or what its intentions are, or does it only matter how Putin perceives them?

In short, where is this going?
Magnus is the one who seems to think he can have the debate in a contextual vacuum. If you want to talk context then please let’s start by framing the entire context, including the purpose of the discourse, why now is the time to have that discourse and what the impact of those narratives of discourse are likely to be.
 
Sounds like the Russians are digging in. Wondering if they hope they can hold these lines over winter. Some of them are 60km behind the current front line. A question to those that know more then me (kebabking?) How effectively could you hold such fixed lines if your opponent has drones, western intelligence and very accurate missle systems. I'm assuming anything they dig can't withstand a hit from something delivered by HIMARS?

 
The first demo I ever went on by myself (with my friend Alex) was against American involvement in the Vietnam war. I wasn't pro the Communist regime in Hanoi, just against America's murderous policy. Like most people on the demo. Nobody was asking for negotiations to start, though that might have been a good thing. Nobody was telling the Russians or Chinese to stop arming the Vietnamese, because this might draw the war to a close. No, the message was straightforward. Yanks out!
Why should things be different today?
 
Sounds like the Russians are digging in. Wondering if they hope they can hold these lines over winter. Some of them are 60km behind the current front line. A question to those that know more then me (kebabking?) How effectively could you hold such fixed lines if your opponent has drones, western intelligence and very accurate missle systems. I'm assuming anything they dig can't withstand a hit from something delivered by HIMARS?


I've been wondering why the Russians haven't started bombing the bejaysus out of Kherson because "fuck you that's why", surely it is now in range of the RU artillery?Or are they in disarray/regrouping/scared off too far because of counter battery fire/HIMARS?
 
Sounds like the Russians are digging in. Wondering if they hope they can hold these lines over winter. Some of them are 60km behind the current front line. A question to those that know more then me (kebabking?) How effectively could you hold such fixed lines if your opponent has drones, western intelligence and very accurate missle systems. I'm assuming anything they dig can't withstand a hit from something delivered by HIMARS?

FIrst of all, Russia lacks things like airburst fuzes (things that make shells burst before they hit something), which is essential for attacking dug-in positions: impact projectiles will tend to burst up and outwards, so anyone in a trench is going to be in the shadow of the land, and will need an almost-direct hit to be significantly affected. It is quite possible that they are basing their defensive approach on the assumption that the Ukrainians also don't have airburst capability.

Secondly, Russian military doctrine appears to rely on sheer mass - there is plenty of evidence that they seem to operate on the basis (particularly in attack) that is, essentially, "human wave" - send in soldiers, expect them to be slaughtered, have the following wave go in, and just keep supplying men until you overcome. In WWII, that was used to the extent that subsequent waves would be expected to pick up the weapons of their dead comrades and carry on.

Thirdly, it is quite likely that the command hierarchy is oblivious of the practicalities of the situation - casualty reports are not passed up the chain, and no opportunity arises for the senior command to adapt (if they even could/were willing to) their approach to what is happening on the battlefield (see also "secondly" above).

Fourthly, and perhaps most importantly, they really don't have many other options. They are unlikely to have significant opportunities for manoeuvre warfare there, and they may well be simply regarding the lines along the Dnipro as a defensive block to prevent Ukraine advancing while they concentrate their main effort in (eg) the Donbas area, where we have already seen a significant upturn in activity since the Kherson retreat. Their role in Kherson oblast is probably likely to be little more than "stand and die", in the expectation that Ukraine will not want to expend the cost in personnel and materiel that assaulting those defensive lines, but which obliges Ukraine to maintain a force in that area anyway. They probably consider this to be a Cunning Plan.

ETA: 4a - they will be very focused, too, on trying to stop Ukraine cutting off, and ultimately attacking, Crimea. That may well be the overriding priority.
 
The first demo I ever went on by myself (with my friend Alex) was against American involvement in the Vietnam war. I wasn't pro the Communist regime in Hanoi, just against America's murderous policy. Like most people on the demo. Nobody was asking for negotiations to start, though that might have been a good thing. Nobody was telling the Russians or Chinese to stop arming the Vietnamese, because this might draw the war to a close. No, the message was straightforward. Yanks out!
Why should things be different today?
Were you for or against the Russians arming the Vietnamese?
 
The first demo I ever went on by myself (with my friend Alex) was against American involvement in the Vietnam war. I wasn't pro the Communist regime in Hanoi, just against America's murderous policy. Like most people on the demo. Nobody was asking for negotiations to start, though that might have been a good thing. Nobody was telling the Russians or Chinese to stop arming the Vietnamese, because this might draw the war to a close. No, the message was straightforward. Yanks out!
Why should things be different today?
but not, i note, against australian or thai involvement in the vietnam war
 
Well I was only 15 at the time and I wasn't involved in organising the demo. But just to clarify, had the demo been against us, Aussie and Thai involvement I would still have attended.
In fact, had I been on the organising committee I would have insisted that New Zealand, South Korea and the Philippines were also castigated for their involvement.
 
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