Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[kebabking]

Polish National Security Cabinet is meeting tonight - the betting is that they will invoke NATO's Article 4 (not 5), probable outcome is more NATO air defence assets to Poland, Romania and Baltic States. The the very furthest it might go would be (to the delight of Ukraine) a 'forward air defence zone' over western Ukraine where any missile could be shot down by NATO.

That's at the much less likely end of possibilities, but Ukraine would be very happy with it, as would Poland.

 

[Dogsauce]

Images appear to show fragments of an S300 missile, which Russia has been using as a not particularly accurate surface to surface missile (due to shortage of better stuff) and is also used by both countries for air defence. So doesn’t allow any immediate conclusion.

 

[kebabking]

Images appear to show fragments of an S300 missile, which Russia has been using as a not particularly accurate surface to surface missile (due to shortage of better stuff) and is also used by both countries for air defence. So doesn’t allow any immediate conclusion.

This.

Could be either Russia or Ukraine, and I'd put very solid money on it being accidental.

Wait for the weapons int people to go over it - there might well be a radar trace, as well as ELINT, all of which will tell us much more about where it can from.

 

[spitfire]

Article 4​

The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened.

The consultation process and Article 4

All NATO decisions are made by consensus, after discussion and consultation among member countries. Consultation between member states is therefore at the heart of NATO since Allies are able to exchange views and information, and discuss issues prior to reaching agreement and taking action.

www.nato.int

The North Atlantic Treaty

www.nato.int

 

[Bingoman]

Where those two missiles stuck was a farm where Grain was being dried, so is grain going go up in price again!?

 

[kebabking]

Where those two missiles stuck was a farm where Grain was being dried, so is grain going go up in price again!?

If your local petrol station catches fire, the oil price doesn't go up.

 

[Bingoman]

If your local petrol station catches fire, the oil price doesn't go up.

Fair enough

 

[Yossarian]

No confirmation from the Pentagon:

"We are aware of the press reports alleging that two Russian missiles have struck a location inside Poland near the Ukraine border. I can tell you that we don't have any information at this time to corroborate those reports and are looking into this further," Pentagon spokesperson Brig. Gen. Patrick Ryder said.

 

[steveo87]

So I get SAD every year, which often leads me to have quite intense and dark thoughts (I do the rest of the year- but these are literally constant).
Naturally, this time last year with everything about to kick off in the Ukraine, it went into overdrive- I was so certain that World War 3 would start and we'd all die in a nuclear inferno, that I had stopped making plans because there was no point.

Anyway, I got better - mostly because the weather got better - and with the realisation that no-one would start a World War over Ukraine.

Fast forward to today, this years SAD has kicked in and now rockets are being fired into Poland.....

...I don't reckon my light and my vitamin D supplements are going to help...

 

[cupid_stunt]

Where's TopCat saying Poland is full of Nazi's so it's not that bad?

I am sure maomao will to turn up asking how many millions of lives should be lost defending Poland.

 

[Ax^]

hmm let focus on the polish response

 

[frogwoman]

I don’t think NATO is going to want to step in over this, especially not larger states like the US, France and Germany

 

[Bingoman]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-asia-63593855?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=6373db0349d9ef23494ba847%26Czech%20parliament%20passes%20Russian%20%27terrorist%27%20motion%262022-11-15T20%3A15%3A45.059Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:a8049c10-2407-4b9b-a76f-9fb67c3c78f7&pinned_post_asset_id=6373db0349d9ef23494ba847&pinned_post_type=share

 

[Pickman's model]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-asia-63593855?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=6373db0349d9ef23494ba847%26Czech%20parliament%20passes%20Russian%20%27terrorist%27%20motion%262022-11-15T20%3A15%3A45.059Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:a8049c10-2407-4b9b-a76f-9fb67c3c78f7&pinned_post_asset_id=6373db0349d9ef23494ba847&pinned_post_type=share

What the bloody fuck are you trying to link to?

 

[frogwoman]

In what has already been a brutal and unpredictable war, this perhaps is the most serious development of them all. A turning point has been reached.

I don't mean to have a go at you in particular but I kinda hate this type of argument...as if this is more serious than bucha, mariupol etc

 

[Dogsauce]

Hungary (run by Putin fanboy Orban) is cross at Ukraine because they’ve stopped pumping Russian oil to Hungary through a pipeline.

Ukraine has stopped pumping because Russia destroyed the electrical supply to the pumps

I hope they don’t repair that connection in a hurry.

 

[maomao]

I am sure maomao will to turn up asking how many millions of lives should be lost defending Poland.

I think a lot of us are afraid that it could be many many millions. And there's nothing wrong with asking at what cost when armchair generals are yelling for every inch of Ukraine to be fought for. I'm far far from hopeful for peace though.

 

[Kaka Tim]

not great - but its not a major escalation - its accidental. Reckless endangerment (assuming its the Russians) which will have consequences - but nowhere close to Poland (and NATO) joining the fight.

 

[frogwoman]

not great - but its not a major escalation - its accidental. Reckless endangerment (assuming its the Russians) which will have consequences - but nowhere close to Poland (and NATO) joining the fight.

Yep this.

 

[DaveCinzano]

He’s not as much fun as the now banned Casually ‘RT is gospel’ Brown was. I miss the old trolls.

Tanks for the memories

 

[two sheds]

yes - if it had been deliberate it might be a different matter

 

[Bingoman]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-asia-63593855?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=6373db0349d9ef23494ba847%26Czech%20parliament%20passes%20Russian%20%27terrorist%27%20motion%262022-11-15T20%3A15%3A45.059Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:a8049c10-2407-4b9b-a76f-9fb67c3c78f7&pinned_post_asset_id=6373db0349d9ef23494ba847&pinned_post_type=share

I was trying to link a segment I saw on the BBC rolling page about the Czech republic making it law that they see Russia as a terrorist state

 

[kebabking]

I don’t think NATO is going to want to step in over this, especially not larger states like the US, France and Germany

Germany, sure - but the US is fairly wedded to Poland, and France has (oddly) a great deal of catching up to do in the popularity stakes in Eastern Europe. It's also genuinely solid on European territorial integrity.

France quite likely to go hard - assuming, of course, that it was a Russian missile, which is by no means a given.

 

[maomao]

Given how wrong Urban was about it all kicking off in the first place, I'm far from comforted by the unanimity of opinion here that this isn't a major escalation.

 

[Dogsauce]

Btw, the location of the missile strike is close to a thermal power plant, and also cross-border electrical supply, both of which are the types of targets hit in today’s raids. So likely they were firing at something in the area close to the border.

apparently the crater is too big for an S300 air defence missile alone, so current theories are that the ‘two missiles’ that struck might have been air defence and an actual cruise missile.

 

[frogwoman]

Germany, sure - but the US is fairly wedded to Poland, and France has (oddly) a great deal of catching up to do in the popularity stakes in Eastern Europe. It's also genuinely solid on European territorial integrity.

France quite likely to go hard - assuming, of course, that it was a Russian missile, which is by no means a given.

I doubt any of them is gonna go full Reagan over it tho

 

[LDC]

Given how wrong Urban was about it all kicking off in the first place, I'm far from comforted by the unanimity of opinion here that this isn't a major escalation.

Well I'd like to say I was fully convinced the invasion was coming, but think this likely won't provoke a huge response. So take that and fuck your data research future projections!

 

[Tanya1982]

is he going to say oops soz about that?

He seems to have already said its a provocation against Russia by NATO, so the lies have begun already, and he's removed his own ability to say it was an accident by Russia.

Lord Dannat suggested on Sky News it might be 'accidentally on purpose', but who knows. We will know for sure what the purpose of it all was when we are vapourised.

 

[frogwoman]

Moldova has also suffered a power outage - its first of the war

 

[Ax^]

Given how wrong Urban was about it all kicking off in the first place, I'm far from comforted by the unanimity of opinion here that this isn't a major escalation.

i was right and won a bloody 10 for the server fund on this thread so