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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

What's it say? Can't see the tweet without signing in as it's age-restricted.
It’s just a map showing the positioning of a convoy of ships. Amusingly, however, the shape the convoy makes is apparently enough to make the age filter think it might be something rude.
 
It’s just a map showing the positioning of a convoy of ships. Amusingly, however, the shape the convoy makes is apparently enough to make the age filter think it might be something rude.
Is that what it is? I assumed it was filtered for War Stuff. I've seen accounts that just tweet nature & environment stuff get marked as adult content just because they sometimes post pics that include dead animals...
 
Is that what it is? I assumed it was filtered for War Stuff. I've seen accounts that just tweet nature & environment stuff get marked as adult content just because they sometimes post pics that include dead animals...
I think on this occasion, since it’s really just a map, it must surely just be the vaguely suggestive nature of the outline. The confusion gave me a chuckle, anyway.
 
The Russian casualty rates (according to UKR, as ever) are rising quite steadily in this new phase of untrained or barely-trained conscripts being thrown into the meat grinder. 800 a day. It's horrific. Seems to mostly concentrated in the Donetsk region.

UKR also seems hesistant to go for a full on attack on Kherson. The Russians wouldn't hesistate to enact Scorched Earth on UKR territory even if they've proclaimed it part of Russia.
 
The Russian casualty rates (according to UKR, as ever) are rising quite steadily in this new phase of untrained or barely-trained conscripts being thrown into the meat grinder. 800 a day. It's horrific. Seems to mostly concentrated in the Donetsk region.

UKR also seems hesistant to go for a full on attack on Kherson. The Russians wouldn't hesistate to enact Scorched Earth on UKR territory even if they've proclaimed it part of Russia.
I don't think Ukraine is hesistant on Kherson.

Russia is, I suspect, thinking in set-pieces again. They're reinforcing Kherson, because they (I suspect) are planning on the idea that they can do a classic set-piece urban defence on it, withdrawing their better troops to the city while leaving expendable conscripts to act as a fighting rearguard to slow and attrit the Ukrainian advance.

But I don't think Ukraine is going to do that, for two main reasons.

One, urban combat is EXPENSIVE on the attacker, especially against what are likely to be well-prepared defensive positions and the best troops Russia has left.

Two, their strategy to date has been based on encirclement and logistics denial. We know Russia's logistics are in a parlous state, and quite easily disrupted by HIMARS from the western side of the Dnipro - Kherson could end up being the eastern end of a pocket which Russia would struggle to resupply. So they can move into just out of range of any Kherson-based artillery, dig in, and just sit there.

I wouldn't be surprised if there were some other attack to try and cut off the western side of the Russian-held ground, somewhere west of Zaphorhizhzhia, down to Melitopol, which could have a profound effect on Russia's supply situation in Kherson. We know that Ukraine are masters of the art of maskirovka (case in point: the Kharkiv attack), and all this movement around Kherson, while significant, could be a repeat of the "dead cat" operation they did prior to pushing east up there.

All wild speculation, of course, but I'm increasingly inclined not to underestimate the cunning and art of the Ukrainian approach to war - they seem positively allergic to doing it the Soviet way, while the Russians seem incapable of doing it any other way.
 
The US is saying Noryh Korea is covertly shipping a "significant number"of artillery shells to Russia to support the invasion in the Ukraine

 
hearing that the Russian pontoon bridge across the Dnipro has been done again. might not be accurate but yeh. back to ferries then. its going to be a bloodbath if the russians cannot get out sharpish if needed. fucking hell.Its also gonna be crucial in getting hardware across to Kherson as well
 
History reckons Cuba would have bunged in forces by now. There’s no grand plan any more is there ? It’s just like the wake up, turn on the telly to see what’s happened and make a few calls. Demand more bombs be housed across and go beck to bed
 
They could do that with nukes now.

I think the nukes are more of an insurance against externally-imposed regime change.

History reckons Cuba would have bunged in forces by now. There’s no grand plan any more is there ? It’s just like the wake up, turn on the telly to see what’s happened and make a few calls. Demand more bombs be housed across and go beck to bed

I don't understand the relevance of Cuba to this situation.
 
I don't normally repost Jimmy's tweets as I imagine most of you interested enough in this follow him but something may be afoot in Kherson.

Tactical withdrawal, leaving room for...? Or are they just withdrawing to the prepared fixed defensive line over the river. Hopefully nothing more sinister.

 
Hopefully they've decided that staying there to die just to feed Putin's mad ego is not that great an idea and are buggering off.
 
looking at the maps, if the bridges in Kherson are knocked out, then Ivan has nowhere to go- Kherson itself is SW of the bridges- if that route is blocked or taken, then whoever is still in Kherson city has a bit of a swim to get back to the other side of the river. Im not surprised if they decide to leg it sooner rather than later
 
I think that the Dnipro usually freezes in January so they could leg it then if they last that long. The Ukrainians will need to be wary before entering Kherson as the dam could be blown, parts of the city booby-trapped & some Russians may be masquerading as civilians now that many of the original occupants have been moved out.
 
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