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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

cupid_stunt said:
Sky had a special Q&A programme with their expert, Professor Michael Clarke, which is an interesting watch.

He doesn't think Putin will use nukes, because he doesn't want to end-up with a direct NATO response, which is reassuring, but he also thinks, with various ceasefires along the way, that the war could drag on for 30-40 years, continuing after Putin is replaced by a more hard-line leader, which is the bad news.

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I liked it, but there is a bit in the middle where he says western countries don't bomb civilians. A little later he mentions the nuclear bombings in Japan. HUH? Also he seems to forget about the firebombing of Germany.

Whatever. It is Sky.
 
LDC said:
I can't think of many things that would be more miserable than being a poorly trained and equipped Russian conscript in a trench in Ukraine being repeatedly shelled by artillery this winter.
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The anti-infantry HIMARs looks fucking nasty and sure it'll do a number on soft fortifications to.
 
bluescreen said:
Pretty miserable being a Ukrainian civilian huddling in an unheated basement wondering where the next food and water is coming from.
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Russian soldiers can think fuck this I'm pissing of home.
Russian morale is probably pretty shit as it is, sitting around I'm freezing cold trenches with shit food is going to make it worse. That I think is one of then advantages Ukraine gets from winter.
 
kebabking said:
Depends on what you mean - the system has been used repeatedly across NATO's Northern flank from Alaska to Norway, it works in the conditions you'd expect to see in a Ukrainian winter. That said, everything is harder in winters, changing a wheel is harder and takes longer with massive gloves on for example.

The big thing is going to be wheels Vs tracks. M142 HIMARS is a wheeled truck with the GMLRS system on the back - Ukraine has also been given (by the UK) a number of M270 GMLRS platforms - it's the same rockets, same warhead, same fire control system, same loading system - it's just on a tracked IFV chassis and carries 12 rockets instead of 6.

The HIMARS truck is pretty capable of cross country movement, it's not confined to nice clean roads, but we'll see whether there's any great difference in mobility between wheels and tracks in a Ukrainian winter...
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In muddy off road situations there is no arguement that a tracked vehicle will fair better.
re UK MLRS Have we actually updated it yet, let alone sent updated kit to Ukraine?, it wasnt scheduled to begin till next year
 
_Russ_ said:
In muddy off road situations there is no arguement that a tracked vehicle will fair better.
re UK MLRS Have we actually updated it yet, let alone sent updated kit to Ukraine?, it wasnt scheduled to begin till next year
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I think quite a lot of Russian tank drivers in March this year might not agree with you. Tracks are good for rough ground, but even tracked vehicles, if they are very heavy, like tanks and SPGs are, will struggle in rasputitsa type mud.
 
_Russ_ said:
In muddy off road situations there is no arguement that a tracked vehicle will fair better.
re UK MLRS Have we actually updated it yet, let alone sent updated kit to Ukraine?, it wasnt scheduled to begin till next year
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Yup, we've sent 6. 3 in the first batch, 3 in the second. All happily giving the good news to our friends.

Unfortunately the production line for the M270 is long dead, so generating additional platforms is about finding ones in storage, and doing a major refurbishment on them - one of the problems is that because the ones withdrawn from service (we've bought some from Norway and some from the Netherlands for example) are all at different stages of obsolescence/development, creating a single, clear upgrade path in order to get them into service is quite challenging..
 
My own view is that it's going to be 3 factors.

Firstly, I think the Ukrainians are going to have a field day with static Russian formations, their ISTAR capability, and long range artillery (which doesn't just mean GMLRS)

Secondly, Russia is going to absolutely hammer Ukraines power generation system. Ukraine had to stop exporting power to the rest of Europe this week - they want Ukraine to freeze, and they want Europe to freeze.

Thirdly, it's going to be about how inventive you are at coping with some frankly horrific field conditions and maintaining morale. I have my suspicions about who will do best there, but this will be the second winter the Russian Army has spent in the field, not the first...
 
At the start of this war loads of internet enabled armchair generals* thought that the Russians were just planning to grab some parcels of land near their border and the whole thing would turn into a long drawn out conflict with the west sending supplies in to Ukraine to keep it going.

Obviously that wasn't the Kremlin's plan but perhaps this is what we will see develop now? A running sore for Putin and perhaps his successor , a tragedy for the Ukrainians and the ordinary Russians caught up in this. But perhaps not a bad result of Russia's other neighbours, 'The West' and certainly the shareholders of BAE, Raytheon, Lockheed Martin et al...

But then the long drawn out costs for Russia in WWI and the USSR in Afghanistan both saw significant change...


* (for example, checks notes, me.)
 
A380 said:
At the start of this war loads of internet enabled armchair generals* thought that the Russians were just planning to grab some parcels of land near their border and the whole thing would turn into a long drawn out conflict with the west sending supplies in to Ukraine to keep it going.

Obviously that wasn't the Kremlin's plan but perhaps this is what we will see develop now? A running sore for Putin and perhaps his successor , a tragedy for the Ukrainians and the ordinary Russians caught up in this. But perhaps not a bad result of Russia's other neighbours, 'The West' and certainly the shareholders of BAE, Raytheon, Lockheed Martin et al...

But then the long drawn out costs for Russia in WWI and the USSR in Afghanistan both saw significant change...


* (for example, checks notes, me.)
Click to expand...

Lockheed Martin got a huge bump in stock price when the war started but it's largely given up those gains. Still up 16% YTD. BAE has held on to its gains and I have finally unloaded the shite that has stinking out my GBP portfolio since 2007ish.
 
kebabking said:
Thirdly, it's going to be about how inventive you are at coping with some frankly horrific field conditions and maintaining morale. I have my suspicions about who will do best there, but this will be the second winter the Russian Army has spent in the field, not the first...
Click to expand...
Given quite a lot of the Russian draftees don't want to be there what are their army like about allowing people home for leave? My uniformed opinion would be that it would be quite easy for a Ukrainian to get home for two or three days, with the benefits to morale and health that brings can't see it for an agricultural worker from the Russian far East?
 
A380 said:
Given quite a lot of the Russian draftees don't want to be there what are their army like about allowing people home for leave? My uniformed opinion would be that it would be quite easy for a Ukrainian to get home for two or three days, with the benefits to morale and health that brings can't see it for an agricultural worker from the Russian far East?
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I would say "pretty non-existent" given that some Russian {& proxy} units haven't been rotated out of front-line positions for long periods - even for "normal R&R and re-supply" - based on some comments by the ISW .
 
A380 said:
Given quite a lot of the Russian draftees don't want to be there what are their army like about allowing people home for leave? My uniformed opinion would be that it would be quite easy for a Ukrainian to get home for two or three days, with the benefits to morale and health that brings can't see it for an agricultural worker from the Russian far East?
Click to expand...

As others have said, it's going to be far easier logistically for the Ukrainians to rotate their people - there's also the issue of whether they'd come back. the Ukrainians aren't going to have a problem with that, the Russians on the other hand..
 
kebabking said:
Thirdly, it's going to be about how inventive you are at coping with some frankly horrific field conditions and maintaining morale. I have my suspicions about who will do best there, but this will be the second winter the Russian Army has spent in the field, not the first...
Click to expand...


The Russians and Ukrainians know how to deal with winter. Just one of them won’t have the kit to do so.

Most of the Russians there last February will be pushing up sunflowers next year and not sure how in touch with reality the command is.
 
A380 said:
At the start of this war loads of internet enabled armchair generals* thought that the Russians were just planning to grab some parcels of land near their border and the whole thing would turn into a long drawn out conflict with the west sending supplies in to Ukraine to keep it going.

Obviously that wasn't the Kremlin's plan but perhaps this is what we will see develop now? A running sore for Putin and perhaps his successor , a tragedy for the Ukrainians and the ordinary Russians caught up in this. But perhaps not a bad result of Russia's other neighbours, 'The West' and certainly the shareholders of BAE, Raytheon, Lockheed Martin et al...

But then the long drawn out costs for Russia in WWI and the USSR in Afghanistan both saw significant change...


* (for example, checks notes, me.)
Click to expand...
New Adam Curtis documentary on one of those significant changes

www.theguardian.com

‘They are stealing Russia’: Adam Curtis on how hyper-capitalism wrecked a nation – and why Liz Truss must take heed

In the 1990s, Russia embraced an extreme economics that led to chaos and corruption. Now, writes the maker of explosive new series TraumaZone, Liz Truss is taking Britain down the same toxic path
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
 
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