Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[moochedit]

No chance. Born in SA.

Phew!

 

[Yossarian]

No chance. Born in SA.

His grandfather on his mother's side was born in the US - she was born in Canada but she would have been eligible for US citizenship, if she was registered as one before Musk was born he could have a case for being a "natural born citizen of the United States."

 

[Dystopiary]

Zelenskyy has asked for international observers on the Ukraine-Belarus border. At the G7 summit he stated that Ukraine does not plan military action against Belarus.

Zelensky asks for international observers on Belarus border, offers 'peace formula'

"To completely remove this provocation, to remove these narratives by (Belarus dictator Alexander) Lukashenko, to remove even the assumption of any alleged threat from us, we offer our solution," said Zelensky.

"A mission of international observers may be stationed on the border of Ukraine and Belarus to monitor the security situation," Zelensky said during a conference gathered as a response to Russia's widespread bombardment of Ukraine on Oct. 10.

Zelensky said that Ukrainian authorities have a "peace formula" that includes an air shield, territorial integrity protection, punishment of Russia, and a "Kyiv Security Compact project," which the president didn't describe in detail.

 

[WhyLikeThis]

This is quite the pep talk.

 

[WhyLikeThis]

He’s denying it

The denial is being refutted.

 

[Ming]

Just a thought. Putin’s just moved a particularly brutal guy called General Surovikin into play. He’s got a hell of a CV (including running over protesters in a tank killing three in 1991, Chechnya and Syria). So further escalation. Maybe getting the right people in place.

 

[WhyLikeThis]

Just a thought. Putin’s just moved a particularly brutal guy called General Surovikin into play. He’s got a hell of a CV (including running over protesters in a tank killing three in 1991, Chechnya and Syria). So further escalation. Maybe getting the right people in place.

Winter is coming. Guided munitions have run low and sanctions are making their timely replacement infeasible. Dipshit draftees, poorly trained, armed, fed, clothed and organised will likely be little more than cannon fodder. Internal ennui continues to ferment and will erode confidence in their supreme leader. Promoting that psychopath general will end up will endless more suffering but he doesn’t have a magic wand to fix the above.

 

[Ming]

Winter is coming. Guided munitions have run low and sanctions are making their timely replacement infeasible. Dipshit draftees, poorly trained, armed, fed, clothed and organised will likely be little more than cannon fodder. Internal ennui continues to ferment and will erode confidence in their supreme leader. Promoting that psychopath general will end up will endless more suffering but he doesn’t have a magic wand to fix the above.

But it is a message. ‘I’m doubling down’.

 

[WhyLikeThis]

But it is a message. ‘I’m doubling down’.

What other choice has he got?

 

[Ming]

What other choice has he got?

None. Which is the problem. The only way I see out without escalation to nuclear is for someone in his inner circle to kill him or foment a coup. He won’t lose face. He can’t afford to. His rich mates won’t allow him to.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Sky had a special Q&A programme with their expert, Professor Michael Clarke, which is an interesting watch.

He doesn't think Putin will use nukes, because he doesn't want to end-up with a direct NATO response, which is reassuring, but he also thinks, with various ceasefires along the way, that the war could drag on for 30-40 years, continuing after Putin is replaced by a more hard-line leader, which is the bad news.

 

[ska invita]

he also thinks, with various ceasefires along the way, that the war could drag on for 30-40 years, continuing after Putin is replaced by a more hard-line leader, which is the bad news.

also at the end theres talk about ukraine running low on NATO weapons and that the supply has real limitations...not something you usually hear in the western narrative
also that winter benefits Russia better than Ukraine - contradicting what people were posting above last couple of days

 

[Artaxerxes]

also at the end theres talk about ukraine running low on NATO weapons and that the supply has real limitations...not something you usually hear in the western narrative
also that winter benefits Russia better than Ukraine - contradicting what people were posting above last couple of days

Winter is going to help whatever side needs to defend so it’ll be mixed. Russia will benefit from being able to rest demoralised forces if it’s sensible but Ukraine will benefit from not having to be attacked as well though it’s people are going to suffer from cold and heat outages from the bombing

Winter is marginally better than the muddy season for moving troops about. If Ukraine can keep hitting the Crimean bridge and the rail link to crimea over land the Russian troops are going to have a nasty winter in Kherson and crimea

 

[existentialist]

also at the end theres talk about ukraine running low on NATO weapons and that the supply has real limitations...not something you usually hear in the western narrative
also that winter benefits Russia better than Ukraine - contradicting what people were posting above last couple of days

Winter has traditionally benefited Russia versus Western enemies, mainly because it favours the armies fighting on their own land. In this case, it's a Ukraine home game, and for once, General Winter might be working for the opposition.

 

[ska invita]

Winter has traditionally benefited Russia versus Western enemies, mainly because it favours the armies fighting on their own land. In this case, it's a Ukraine home game, and for once, General Winter might be working for the opposition.

tell it to the military expert - he says Russia are actively buying time right now for the onset of winter

Russia are in that territory for months now with supply routes to the rear and side
no real home difference for either side

 

[existentialist]

tell it to the military expert

Russia are in that territory for months now with supply routes to the rear and side
no real home difference for either side

Well...<does handwaving thing> Russia fucked it up in Finland against an inferior opponent. And they're hardly well-prepared for a winter war in Ukraine.

I don't think it's going to be easy for either side, but a lot is going to come down to preparedness and creativity. Russia doesn't show too well on those counts. Fingers crossed.

 

[The39thStep]

Winter has traditionally benefited Russia versus Western enemies, mainly because it favours the armies fighting on their own land. In this case, it's a Ukraine home game, and for once, General Winter might be working for the opposition.

How many wars in Winter has Ukraine fought?

 

[maomao]

How many wars in Winter has Ukraine fought?

None since independence, but the 'Russians' in the Napoleonic wars, WW1 and WW2 were significantly Ukrainian.

 

[The39thStep]

None since independence, but the 'Russians' in the Napoleonic wars, WW1 and WW2 were significantly Ukrainian.

Thanks. I'm just trying to get a handle on this issue of which army 'benefits' from the winter and what experiences decades ago , or in your example centuries, ago are going to be of use.

 

[Artaxerxes]

Thanks. I'm just trying to get a handle on this issue of which army 'benefits' from the winter and what experiences decades ago , or in your example centuries, ago are going to be of use.

Let’s put it simply, winter in Ukraine and Russia is nasty, Ukraine is unlikely to invade Russia but it would like it’s land back.

Harsh winters do not make travelling about easy, shelter is good to have. This favours staying in one place with a tin of hot soup and a warm blanket.

Whichever side is roaming about trying to attack the other is going to be at a disadvantage because it’s bloody freezing which plays havoc with people and kit.

The Russians should, on paper, sit back and bleed the Ukrainians out if they attack, this also gives the Russians a chance to train some of the people they’ve just press ganged and get more supplies as they’ll be doing less attack and build up stocks.

However the caveat here is Russians have so far been dumb as fuck from the start.


Should the Ukrainians keep attacking it will be tough on them. Winter is slightly better for moving vehicles about than autumn or spring as they won’t bog down in the mud so they could potentially bypass fortifications but it’s also going to limit rapid advances as the army can’t just camp in vehicles over night or shouldn’t because it’s cold. While the Russians can hide in warm bunkers or shelters.

The closer Ukraine gets to Russia the more Russia can overcome many of the supply issues that have dogged it - railways will be intact, as will roads. The infrastructure Ukraine has taken or will take will be suffering from combat damage, heavy troop movement and lack of maintenance which again is harder to fix in the winter

 

[JimW]

Ukraine will have the same winter fuel difficulties as most Western European economies too, won't it? Plus the general flimsy state of their wider economy. Would have thought a delay and loss of momentum definitely not welcome.

 

[frogwoman]

They're trying to grab as much as they can before winter properly sets in

 

[WhyLikeThis]

Moscow’s media muppets making merry on Musk‘s misguided musings

 

[existentialist]

Let’s put it simply, winter in Ukraine and Russia is nasty, Ukraine is unlikely to invade Russia but it would like it’s land back.

Harsh winters do not make travelling about easy, shelter is good to have. This favours staying in one place with a tin of hot soup and a warm blanket.

Whichever side is roaming about trying to attack the other is going to be at a disadvantage because it’s bloody freezing which plays havoc with people and kit.

The Russians should, on paper, sit back and bleed the Ukrainians out if they attack, this also gives the Russians a chance to train some of the people they’ve just press ganged and get more supplies as they’ll be doing less attack and build up stocks.

However the caveat here is Russians have so far been dumb as fuck from the start.


Should the Ukrainians keep attacking it will be tough on them. Winter is slightly better for moving vehicles about than autumn or spring as they won’t bog down in the mud so they could potentially bypass fortifications but it’s also going to limit rapid advances as the army can’t just camp in vehicles over night or shouldn’t because it’s cold. While the Russians can hide in warm bunkers or shelters.

The closer Ukraine gets to Russia the more Russia can overcome many of the supply issues that have dogged it - railways will be intact, as will roads. The infrastructure Ukraine has taken or will take will be suffering from combat damage, heavy troop movement and lack of maintenance which again is harder to fix in the winter

Not to mention that Ukraine (presently) has the advantage in terms of longer-range battlefield weaponry, so they don't need to move about as much. And, with current progress in Luhansk and above Kherson, they're limiting Russia's interior communication lines, which means Russian movements generally need to go the long way around - much more of a problem in winter, and even more so if..."hmm, nice bridge you got there, shame if another explosion happened "

 

[Flavour]

as others have said, HIMARS doesn't take winter breaks

 

[Artaxerxes]

Not to mention that Ukraine (presently) has the advantage in terms of longer-range battlefield weaponry, so they don't need to move about as much. And, with current progress in Luhansk and above Kherson, they're limiting Russia's interior communication lines, which means Russian movements generally need to go the long way around - much more of a problem in winter, and even more so if..."hmm, nice bridge you got there, shame if another explosion happened "

Yeah that was in my first post but he still seemed a bit unsure.


If Ukraine can keep hitting Crimean bridge and the land route (which is in range) the entire scope changes and leaves the Russians fucked.

This does mean a huge number of civilians are in deep shit though.

 

[maomao]

as others have said, HIMARS doesn't take winter breaks

HIMARS have mechanical parts. I'm sure they're not entirely immune to cold weather.

 

[frogwoman]

 

[Cid]

Even before this, Russia was already short of 250,000 teachers

Both countries will emerge from this with a 'lost generation', or at least part of it, it seems. Grim.

 

[kebabking]

HIMARS have mechanical parts. I'm sure they're not entirely immune to cold weather.

Depends on what you mean - the system has been used repeatedly across NATO's Northern flank from Alaska to Norway, it works in the conditions you'd expect to see in a Ukrainian winter. That said, everything is harder in winters, changing a wheel is harder and takes longer with massive gloves on for example.

The big thing is going to be wheels Vs tracks. M142 HIMARS is a wheeled truck with the GMLRS system on the back - Ukraine has also been given (by the UK) a number of M270 GMLRS platforms - it's the same rockets, same warhead, same fire control system, same loading system - it's just on a tracked IFV chassis and carries 12 rockets instead of 6.

The HIMARS truck is pretty capable of cross country movement, it's not confined to nice clean roads, but we'll see whether there's any great difference in mobility between wheels and tracks in a Ukrainian winter...