Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[Pickman's model]

Tons of that shite on Twitter, lol no inside toilets etc. Also one recent video with a guy who appeared to have Down’s syndrome with some Russian soldiers and lots of people laughing at the apparently drunk halfwit. Not nice, Gives me the ‘are we the bad guys?’ vibes. I’ve had words a few times. Plenty of those Russian soldiers are victims too, conscripted or in financial circumstances where they have no better option and no access to anything other than propaganda telling them how virtuous the mission is.

There are many people in England who've removed their own teeth with pliers, being either unable to get appts with dentists or to afford them.

 

[frogwoman]

There are many people in England who've removed their own teeth with pliers, being either unable to get appts with dentists or to afford them.

These charmers are the same ones who have a go at British people for having bad teeth tbf

 

[ska invita]

This is properly worrying me. He's given himself no room to back down, and the Ukrainians aren't going to just say "sure, go ahead". Plus all the existential threat from the West stuff, like where does it go next? This, to me, is shaping up for some kind of escalation. And then fuck knows what happens. He's cornered and that scares the shit out of me.

I've got a different perspective on all this
The Russian army has conquered the land corridor it was after and held for months now. It is not about to lose it. They dont want or need any major escalation from here, its all about consolidation.
Scary speeches and theatre are designed to cool off the opposition and its working.

As the winter drags on Ukraine will come to accept the annexations, though there will be a long running low level 'occupied territores' guerilla war for many years to come.
Even earlier in the war Zelensky made it clear he was prepared that Ukraine would lose territory, when peace talks were still a thing. No reason to believe the view deep down has changed on that.
This is mission accomplished for Putin, not the start of a new major escalation.
This is the beginning of the end of the war.

Russian state is shrewd: there's nothing to be gained by launching into a bigger nuclear conflict, and everything to lose. Why would they. They've already got what they wanted.

 

[seventh bullet]

These charmers are the same ones who have a go at British people for having bad teeth tbf

It's the chav shite we get here. They're objects of disgust and ridicule aren't they, poor people, lol.

 

[frogwoman]

It's the chav shite we get here. They're objects of disgust and ridicule aren't they, poor people, lol.

With an added helping of xenophobia tbh

 

[kebabking]

It's the people themselves being sneered at and you know it.

Given that I'm doing some of the sneering, I'll keep my own counsel on who, and what, I'm sneering at thanks.

 

[Pickman's model]

I've got a different perspective on all this
The Russian army has conquered the land corridor it was after and held for months now. It is not about to lose it. They dont want or need any major escalation from here, its all about consolidation.
Scary speeches and theatre are designed to cool off the opposition and its working.

As the winter drags on Ukraine will come to accept the annexations, though there will be a long running low level 'occupied territores' guerilla war for many years to come.
Even earlier in the war Zelensky made it clear he was prepared that Ukraine would lose territory, when peace talks were still a thing. No reason to believe the view deep down has changed on that.
This is mission accomplished for Putin, not the start of a new major escalation.
This is the beginning of the end of the war.

Russian state is shrewd: there's nothing to be gained by launching into a bigger nuclear conflict, and everything to lose. Why would they. They've already got what they wanted.

That's a very bold prediction

 

[The39thStep]

It's the chav shite we get here. They're objects of disgust and ridicule aren't they, poor people, lol.

Do you remember the let's have a go at those attracted to BNP for looking poor period?

 

[Rob Ray]

It's entirely understandable to want to laugh at the little dictator preening over his big guns when a slightly closer look shows them to be rusty and tired. But I hope we can generally agree that the wholesale looting of the Russian welfare state by a mafia-like cabal headed by Putin, which has led to grinding poverty and indeed bad dentistry, is a horrible thing and its victims, in this case additionally cursed by entrenched ignorance produced by regime information control and the violent enforcement of conscription, should not be laughed at. There go we all, etc.

 

[Pickman's model]

I've got a different perspective on all this
The Russian army has conquered the land corridor it was after and held for months now. It is not about to lose it. They dont want or need any major escalation from here, its all about consolidation.
Scary speeches and theatre are designed to cool off the opposition and its working.

As the winter drags on Ukraine will come to accept the annexations, though there will be a long running low level 'occupied territores' guerilla war for many years to come.
Even earlier in the war Zelensky made it clear he was prepared that Ukraine would lose territory, when peace talks were still a thing. No reason to believe the view deep down has changed on that.
This is mission accomplished for Putin, not the start of a new major escalation.
This is the beginning of the end of the war.

Russian state is shrewd: there's nothing to be gained by launching into a bigger nuclear conflict, and everything to lose. Why would they. They've already got what they wanted.

Don't you think the influx of weapons has rather changed the calculus? That was then, it's different now, and come Christmas (either Russian or western, whichever suits you) you may rue your hasty post

 

[strung out]

I've got a different perspective on all this
The Russian army has conquered the land corridor it was after and held for months now. It is not about to lose it. They dont want or need any major escalation from here, its all about consolidation.
Scary speeches and theatre are designed to cool off the opposition and its working.

As the winter drags on Ukraine will come to accept the annexations, though there will be a long running low level 'occupied territores' guerilla war for many years to come.
Even earlier in the war Zelensky made it clear he was prepared that Ukraine would lose territory, when peace talks were still a thing. No reason to believe the view deep down has changed on that.
This is mission accomplished for Putin, not the start of a new major escalation.
This is the beginning of the end of the war.

Russian state is shrewd: there's nothing to be gained by launching into a bigger nuclear conflict, and everything to lose. Why would they. They've already got what they wanted.

I think you're wrong that Ukraine will come to accept it, and also that Russia is not about to lose the land they have annexed.

We saw how quickly the Russian front collapsed in Kharkiv, and the same could happen again - look at what's going on in Lyman with up to 5,000 Russian soldiers reportedly surrounded.

I don't think we've seen the last of substantial Ukrainian counter attacks and liberation of occupied territory. Putin's reaction to that will be a key indicator of how serious he is about these vague threats against the west.

 

[existentialist]

I would guess that the strategic nuclear forces of Russia are probably slightly better funded and hopefully less prone to corruption than their conventional forces (?) but I do wonder about their tactical weapons. Late night thought: what would happen if the Russians launched a battlefield version and the weapon failed, either a fizzle yield or just spreading tiny bits of the pit and any neutron emitter over the countryside. A radiological problem obvs , although probably not a widespread catastrophic one, but. what would the response be? In the latter case how long before Ukrainian DIM teams would realise what had hit them?

They do seem pretty good at rocketry but anyone got a view on how good the Russian's are at maintaining the physics packages on their buckets of sunshine*?


* Obviously this would be idle speculation, they might not even know for sure themselves and an alternative message board probably wouldn't be the place for any AWE types to share highly classified analysis. (although World of Tanks seems to be the place for publishing all kinds of clarified material around the world so, why not...)

I'm less convinced. Given the enormous amounts of money that must be up for grabs around maintenance of nuclear bombs (and taking as read the epic levels of endemic corruption in Russia), not to mention the "we're never going to need these, are we?" mindset which seems to have afflicted maintenance of more mundane hardware, I'd have thought that the nuclear option was, if anything, even more susceptible to thievery.

At least, I really, really hope so. I wouldn't want to be around to find it out for real, but the idea that a strategic nuclear strike ended up being a bunch of "fizzles" has some appeal...

 

[Pickman's model]

It's entirely understandable to want to laugh at the little dictator preening over his big guns when a slightly closer look shows them to be rusty and tired. But I hope we can generally agree that the wholesale looting of the Russian welfare state by a mafia-like cabal headed by Putin, which has led to grinding poverty and indeed bad dentistry, is a horrible thing and its victims, in this case additionally cursed by entrenched ignorance produced by regime information control and the violent enforcement of conscription, should not be laughed at. There go we all, etc.

Yeh we're not so far off that here as we like to think

 

[ska invita]

That's a very bold prediction

its looked this way for months - the annexation just makes the stand off official

 

[A380]

It’s good that we discuss these things, but it’s still about us isn’t it?

If I was a 40 something farm labourer from Agricultural Hamlet 2684 in Siberia being shipped off to fight in an invasion with a 50 year old riffle, no ammunition, and officers that despise and fear me, leaving my wife and kids to survive on our 1000 Rubbles of savings I’m not sure my primary concern would be loads of westerners laughing at my home dentistry on Insta.

 

[seventh bullet]

With an added helping of xenophobia tbh

With Americans there's also a legacy of 'red scare' propaganda from the Cold War, the Russkies etc, which still feeds into nationalistic views regarding the old rival. So to see the parlous state of a military once vaunted as one of the most feared in the world gives those inclined to make a national superiority complex a part of their personality a good deal of satisfaction in their mockery.

 

[existentialist]

Tons of that shite on Twitter, lol no inside toilets etc. Also one recent video with a guy who appeared to have Down’s syndrome with some Russian soldiers and lots of people laughing at the apparently drunk halfwit. Not nice, Gives me the ‘are we the bad guys?’ vibes. I’ve had words a few times. Plenty of those Russian soldiers are victims too, conscripted or in financial circumstances where they have no better option and no access to anything other than propaganda telling them how virtuous the mission is.

FWIW, I've been uncomfortable from the start with the description of Russians as "orcs". That kind of dehumanisation doesn't really go anywhere good.

 

[Pickman's model]

its looked this way for months - the annexation just makes the stand off official

Past performance is no guarantee of future profits

 

[seventh bullet]

It's entirely understandable to want to laugh at the little dictator preening over his big guns when a slightly closer look shows them to be rusty and tired. But I hope we can generally agree that the wholesale looting of the Russian welfare state by a mafia-like cabal headed by Putin, which has led to grinding poverty and indeed bad dentistry, is a horrible thing and its victims, in this case additionally cursed by entrenched ignorance produced by regime information control and the violent enforcement of conscription, should not be laughed at. There go we all, etc.

This should be basic, but here we are, the dirty, stupid povs hahaha.

 

[strung out]

its looked this way for months - the annexation just makes the stand off official

It looked this way in Kharkiv, until suddenly it didn't.

 

[Rob Ray]

It’s good that we discuss these things, but it’s still about us isn’t it?

If I was 40 something farm labourer from Agricultural Hamlet 2684 in Siberia being shipped off to fight in an invasion with a 50 year old riffle, no ammunition, and officers that despise and fear me, leaving my wife and kids to survive on our 1000 Rubbles of savings I’m not sure my primary concern would be loads of westerners laughing at my home dentistry on Insta.

It is indeed about us. I doubt any of them will ever read this thread. But the attitudes we take do form part of and influence the broader civil superego, and are thus worth discussing and improving regardless of whether middle-aged Siberian labourers ever see them.

 

[SpookyFrank]

The difference is that most of those older Ukrainian soldiers are volunteers (and a lot have been fighting in Donbas post 2014) whereas almost none of those poor sods actually want to be there

The Russians don't have enough officers or command structure to make effective use of the soldiers that are already in the field. What they think they're going to be able to do with 300,000 more miserable, angry press-ganged blokes is anyone's guess.

 

[The39thStep]

It’s good that we discuss these things, but it’s still about us isn’t it?

If I was 40 something farm labourer from Agricultural Hamlet 2684 in Siberia being shipped off to fight in an invasion with a 50 year old riffle, no ammunition, and officers that despise and fear me, leaving my wife and kids to survive on our 1000 Rubbles of savings I’m not sure my primary concern would be loads of westerners laughing at my home dentistry on Insta.

But you are not. You are on a discussion board where there is a discussion about posters laughing about the physical and health state of Russian conscripts.

 

[A380]

FWIW, I've been uncomfortable from the start with the description of Russians as "orcs". That kind of dehumanisation doesn't really go anywhere good.

Like you I found that hard. But I do think there is a difference with the Ukrainians doing it and people safe from the conflict.

Dehumanising people Is horrible, despicable even , but if you are going to have to burn them to death, smash their bodies into fragments, or even stab them repeatedly, because they have invaded your country i imagine might help you to do that. Another reason that war is so fucking awful.

 

[SpookyFrank]

I've got a different perspective on all this
The Russian army has conquered the land corridor it was after and held for months now. It is not about to lose it. They dont want or need any major escalation from here, its all about consolidation.
Scary speeches and theatre are designed to cool off the opposition and its working.

As the winter drags on Ukraine will come to accept the annexations, though there will be a long running low level 'occupied territores' guerilla war for many years to come.
Even earlier in the war Zelensky made it clear he was prepared that Ukraine would lose territory, when peace talks were still a thing. No reason to believe the view deep down has changed on that.
This is mission accomplished for Putin, not the start of a new major escalation.
This is the beginning of the end of the war.

Russian state is shrewd: there's nothing to be gained by launching into a bigger nuclear conflict, and everything to lose. Why would they. They've already got what they wanted.

Annexing territory you don't control doesn't seem like a steady-state, endgame type move to me. Putin has drawn those lines in 'law' because he's been unable to draw them in real life.

 

[A380]

But you are not. You are on a discussion board where there is a discussion about posters laughing about the physical and health state of Russian conscripts.

It is important, vitally so, see above , But it is about ‘us’.

 

[existentialist]

Like you I found that hard. But I do think there is a difference with the Ukrainians doing it and people safe from the conflict.

Dehumanising people Is horrible, despicable even , but if you are going to have to burn them to death, smash their bodies into bits, or even stab them repeatedly, because they have invaded your country i imagine might help you to do that. Another reason that war is so ducking awful.

Yeah, I nearly wrote that - those people are attacking the homes and families of Ukrainians, so perhaps they've earned the right to call them names. So long as that isn't translating into a situation where, by dehumanising them, they are excusing brutalising them. Which I am sure is happening, but I hope it's not on the scale of what we've been seeing from the Russians in places like Bucha and Izyum.

 

[nogojones]

Yeah that's the stuff I was referring to on Twitter etc, usually by Americans

In all fairness, they generally like to sneer at their own poor as well.

 

[A380]

In all fairness, they generally like to sneer at their own poor as well.

Unlike us decent, caring Brits. After all we don't even have a word for 'chavs'. Oh wait, hang on...

 

[ska invita]

It looked this way in Kharkiv, until suddenly it didn't.

Well there is a war on and theres small advances and gains on both sides, ultimately apart from at the edges the map of occupation has changed little in a long while now.
We do not have an impartial media narrative of what is happening. UK media talks up Ukrainian gains and plays down Russian ones. What are Ukrainian troop losses? Are they larger than Russian ones? There is absolutely no way of finding that out. If you just go by headlines it would be easy to get the impression that Ukraine Is Winning!!! And yes its been an unexpectedly effective resistance, but this territory objectively looks lost to me - and I think the Kremlin are equally confident that they've secured it.

Todays BBC map suggests more Russian advances than Ukrainian - only so much you can read from a map like this of course.

From where im sat it looks like successful annexation with slight movement to and fro on the front line

Was speaking to someone (from their armchair) who reckons there'll be a Russian winter offensive to consolidate the annexation further, which does explain the recent draft.