Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[Kaka Tim]

Well, the other bit of the picture is that the system strongly encourages not reporting the truth back up the line of command...so he's probably oblivious.

yeah - but surely hes noticed that his armed forces are a lot more shit than they supposed to be thanks to endemic corruption? Like losing his black sea flagship?

 

[seventh bullet]

A few of the people I follow on my Ukrainian warscrolling Twitter account for info seem to be carrying 40-yr old grudges from the Cold War era, crush the commie scum etc. Same people banging on about the failings/evil of socialism. Them and the tankies seem under some weird misconception that Russia is still communist.

The Tankie analysis of the conflict appears to have blown the cobwebs off the Marxist-Leninist doctrine of yesteryear, whereby in this updated take Russia has been designated a semi-peripheral country, and so itself subject to exploitation by the imperialism of the core capitalist countries, therefore Russia cannot be, by definition, imperialist in its actions against Ukraine. Indeed, Russia is being anti-imperialist in its actions. Bonkers.

 

[teqniq]

Yeah that is something that pisses me off no end. That there is only one kind of imperialism, that which is practised by the US and it's allies.

 

[Pickman's model]

Yeah that is something that pisses me off no end. That there is only one kind of imperialism, that which is practised by the US and it's allies.

they're just better at it

 

[existentialist]

yeah - but surely hes noticed that his armed forces are a lot more shit than they supposed to be thanks to endemic corruption? Like losing his black sea flagship?

Well, yeah, and who knows what kind of meltdowns are going on in the Kremlin as a result? But the thing is that it's too late now. And he probably can't even throw all the commanders he suspects out of fifth floor windows, because they're all he's got. Another reason, perhaps, why his military might be quite happy for an outcome which involves Putin not taking the stairs...

 

[spitfire]

Looks like Lyman has been taken back.

 

[petee]

These charmers are the same ones who have a go at British people for having bad teeth tbf

or "septics" innit.

 

[teqniq]

Yuk. And all the while they have been talking up denazification in Ukraine:

 

[spitfire]

Vatnik huffing glue here.

 

[A380]

That flag's seen better days!

Those two guys might disagree ..

 

[A380]

they're just better at it

Practice innit.

 

[A380]

The Tankie analysis of the conflict appears to have blown the cobwebs off the Marxist-Leninist doctrine of yesteryear, whereby in this updated take Russia has been designated a semi-peripheral country, and so itself subject to exploitation by the imperialism of the core capitalist countries, therefore Russia cannot be, by definition, imperialist in its actions against Ukraine. Indeed, Russia is being anti-imperialist in its actions. Bonkers.

Yeah one on my mum and dad's tankie ex -commrades ran this very line at a recent get together they had. He got short shrift (despite the fact that he used to print most of the underground papers and leaflets that went into Apartheid South Africa from the UK he's always been a bit of a nutter on the doctrine front... )

 

[Raheem]

Looks like Lyman has been taken back.

If you've ever wondered what it would be like to be Russian for a day...

 

[Pickman's model]

Yeah one on my mum and dad's tankie ex -commrades ran this very line at a recent get together they had. He got short shrift (despite the fact that he used to print most of the underground papers and leaflets that went into Apartheid South Africa from the UK he's always been a bit of a nutter on the doctrine front... )

you say despite, i say because of

 

[seventh bullet]

Yeah one on my mum and dad's tankie ex -commrades ran this very line at a recent get together they had. He got short shrift (despite the fact that he used to print most of the underground papers and leaflets that went into Apartheid South Africa from the UK he's always been a bit of a nutter on the doctrine front... )

My interest (one person's dull is another's technicolour) in my spare time is the history of Marxist-Leninist movements and governments, Communist-ruled rather than Communist societies. I know, but I don't get invited to parties so I can't bore anyone in the kitchen.

I have great respect for certain movements involving Communist Party members, activists, revolutionaries, particularly in the Global South, even though they were Marxist-Leninists aka Stalinists. But what utter evil and depravity was thrown at them by the Global North... That said I am still not only just 'critical' but against the Stalinist conception of socialism and communism. Its (from their perspective) actualisation has been appalling far too many times and places to be taken as a serious alternative for future generations. The whole point of socialism is that the question of whether it needs a human face should never arise.

 

[tim]

Who really dun Nordtream and how they did it.

How do you do what you do to Nordstream?
I wish I knew
If I knew how you do it to it, I'd do it to you
How do you do what you do to it?
I'm feelin' blue
Wish I knew how you do it to it, but I haven't a clue

 

[spitfire]

The Russian withdrawal from Lyman sounds horrific. Allegedly still quite a few in the city surrounded.

Reports of the UA advancing on Kreminna now as well.

 

[The39thStep]

My interest (one person's dull is another's technicolour) in my spare time is the history of Marxist-Leninist movements and governments, Communist-ruled rather than Communist societies. I know, but I don't get invited to parties so I can't bore anyone in the kitchen.

I have great respect for certain movements involving Communist Party members, activists, revolutionaries, particularly in the Global South, even though they were Marxist-Leninists aka Stalinists. But what utter evil and depravity was thrown at them by the Global North... That said I am still not only just 'critical' but against the Stalinist conception of socialism and communism. Its (from their perspective) actualisation has been appalling far too many times and places to be taken as a serious alternative for future generations. The whole point of socialism is that the question of whether it needs a human face should never arise.

Putin sympathiser

 

[Nylock]

I'm less convinced. Given the enormous amounts of money that must be up for grabs around maintenance of nuclear bombs (and taking as read the epic levels of endemic corruption in Russia), not to mention the "we're never going to need these, are we?" mindset which seems to have afflicted maintenance of more mundane hardware, I'd have thought that the nuclear option was, if anything, even more susceptible to thievery.

At least, I really, really hope so. I wouldn't want to be around to find it out for real, but the idea that a strategic nuclear strike ended up being a bunch of "fizzles" has some appeal...

If they were to launch a tactical nuke, it would be from the stockpile of ones they definitely know will work. Or at least, from their perspective, you'd think that the fully functional ones would get deployed otherwise, why walk up to the big red line only to demonstrate to the world that your ultimate trump card is as decrepit and dysfunctional as your conventional forces? That really would be the ultimate suicide note for your nation/regime...

 

[two sheds]

If they were to launch a tactical nuke, it would be from the stockpile of ones they definitely know will work. Or at least, from their perspective, you'd think that the fully functional ones would get deployed otherwise, why walk up to the big red line only to demonstrate to the world that your ultimate trump card is as decrepit and dysfunctional as your conventional forces? That really would be the ultimate suicide note for your nation/regime...

definitely think they know will work?

or possibly think they definitely know will work?

 

[spitfire]

The Russian withdrawal from Lyman sounds horrific. Allegedly still quite a few in the city surrounded.

Reports of the UA advancing on Kreminna now as well.

To clarify, horrific for the Russians. Being hunted through a forest by night vision wearing SOF when you have nothing but the light of your phone to go by must have been terrifying. Also reportedly mistaken for UA as they approached Kreminna so then shot by their own as well.

eta: But having seen the civilian convoy shelled by the Russians today, 20 dead, 10 of whom were kids my heart isn't exactly bleeding purple piss for them.

 

[existentialist]

If they were to launch a tactical nuke, it would be from the stockpile of ones they definitely know will work. Or at least, from their perspective, you'd think that the fully functional ones would get deployed otherwise, why walk up to the big red line only to demonstrate to the world that your ultimate trump card is as decrepit and dysfunctional as your conventional forces? That really would be the ultimate suicide note for your nation/regime...

Yeah, I could see, given Russian military doctrine, that tactical nukes might be seen rather less as "we're never going to use them, are we?". So perhaps they're less likely to have been stored somewhere the rain got in, or cannibalised for bits to sell - one would imagine that, whatever security Russia has that does work, it'd be guarding the nuclear weapons. But I've been surprised just how apparently hollowed-out the Russian military has actually been in this conflict, so who knows?

I guess it doesn't pay to assume that he doesn't have some working weapons, tactical or otherwise.

 

[2hats]

They do seem pretty good at rocketry but anyone got a view on how good the Russian's are at maintaining the physics packages on their buckets of sunshine*?

Post #13,399.

e2a: Additionally - ageing SLBMs perhaps more reliable than ICBMs (solids versus hypergolics), with potentially a longer maintenance interval, though the state of the submarine fleet obviously yet another confounder plus all warheads have life limited components anyway necessitating regular refurbishment. Possibly there would be more focus on newer packages and delivery platforms; I note speculation in the last week or so over prep for further tests of 9M730 Burevestnik ("Skyfall" aka the flying Chornobyl) on/off Yuhzny sometime soon (satellite imagery might suggest).

 

[JimW]

Read a Chinese report saying Ukraine has cancelled new call-ups and is extending service of current troops, taken to mean few casualties and decision to keep experienced soldiers in the field rather than new recruits making up numbers.

 

[Cid]

Read a Chinese report saying Ukraine has cancelled new call-ups and is extending service of current troops, taken to mean few casualties and decision to keep experienced soldiers in the field rather than new recruits making up numbers.

Out of interest what's the general tone of Chinese domestic press on the war these days? broad question I realise.

 

[JimW]

Out of interest what's the general tone of Chinese domestic press on the war these days? broad question I realise.

Not sure I'm reading a wide enough range to give a fair overview but the more liberal end I tend to read most regularly are certainly not short of stories that favour the Ukrainian side and the comments below line even more so.

 

[Cid]

Not sure I'm reading a wide enough range to give a fair overview but the more liberal end I tend to read most regularly are certainly not short of stories that favour the Ukrainian side and the comments below line even more so.

Yeah I meant in the sense of what journos feel they're able to publish as much as anything, so that's interesting to know.

 

[JimW]

Yeah I meant in the sense of what journos feel they're able to publish as much as anything, so that's interesting to know.

Text tends to stick to events but obviously they make the editorial decision to highlight Ukrainian successes or Russian failures/crimes so does suggest no hard directive not to.

 

[Kaka Tim]

video apparently showing explosions at Sevastopol airbase in Crimea.

 

[UnderOpenSky]

video apparently showing explosions at Sevastopol airbase in Crimea.

I thought they'd already done that one?