Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[emanymton]

I wish people would stop going on about nukes there is huge number steps that can be taken to escalate things before it gets to that stage.

He hasn't even declared war and ordered a full mobilisation yet.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

I don’t think he will use nukes btw but not because he doesn’t want to, he can't just press the button himself, someone else has to carry out the order and his position is looking so weak that they probably won't

This, plus nukes are very hard to explode, they need to be in 100% tip-top condition and the chances of that when it is crystal clear that every single bit of the Russian military has been neglected and abused by tea-leaves for decades, it would be a miracle if the nukes were kept in working order. A risky as shit gamble, obviously.

And how many times has Putin done his "I'm not bluffing this time" bollocks? ~35 according to a number of reports.

I'm gonna hit you.
I am.
Really, I'm gonna do it.
Not bluffing.
I'm fucking nails and it will hurt when I do it.
This time, I really am going to hit you!
etc.

 

[LDC]

A lot of people in the current regime are going to pretend they've hated Putin all along, probably a lot sooner than we think.

A load of hipster "I hated him before it was cool" anti-Putin types will come out of the woodwork?

 

[frogwoman]

A load of hipster "I hated him before it was cool" anti-Putin types will come out of the woodwork?

the likes of Sovelyov might end up going woke

 

[nogojones]

Tin foil hat. Ukraine are liberating their own country / citizens. They are not talking about invading russia.

I don't think you've been paying attention to the last 8 years there.

 

[frogwoman]

Pro-Kremlin neo-Nazi militia inciting the torture and murder of Ukrainian prisoners

Task Force Rusich, linked to the Wagner Group, advises its fighters not to report the capture of Ukrainians to Russian commanders

www.theguardian.com

 

[frogwoman]

the likes of Sovelyov might end up going woke

Him and a blue haired Simonyan ranting about how Putin has ruined the country and saying his pronouns are going to be 'was/were' in the most unconvincing political conversion ever

 

[Pickman's model]

I don't think you've been paying attention to the last 8 years there.

Nor indeed the last 8 days

 

[teuchter]

We grew up with this fear that a nuclear bomb will wipe out all life. That is very far from true.

Tactical nukes have a relatively small blast radius and minimal radiation. If used tactically, i.e. on the battlefield, the way UA troops are not concentrated it will kill a couple of hundred of them max. But it will has escalated things so far that...



The US State Department has alluded that the response will be the sinking of the entire Black Seat Fleet and the destruction of all military bases within Russia. And it's quite clear they can do that if they wish.

I suppose the reason the use of "tactical nukes" crosses some kind of red line is in the end simply that they have "nuclear" in their name.

Because really it doesn't make a whole load of sense that a couple of bombs would trigger such a response and yet multiple war crimes committed over many months, and the destruction of several cities using conventional weapons doesn't.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

I suppose the reason the use of "tactical nukes" crosses some kind of red line is in the end simply that they have "nuclear" in their name.

Probably, because of the fear that people have over anything nuclear, their use may cause Europe to waiver in its support for Ukraine, so a solid line is drawn there?

 

[maomao]

I suppose the reason the use of "tactical nukes" crosses some kind of red line is in the end simply that they have "nuclear" in their name.

Because really it doesn't make a whole load of sense that a couple of bombs would trigger such a response and yet multiple war crimes committed over many months, and the destruction of several cities using conventional weapons doesn't.

Bear in mind that the smallest tactical nukes (say 0.5 KT for sale of argument which is teeny weeny for a nuke) produce an explosion nearly 45 times as big as the biggest non nuclear bomb in the US arsenal (11 tons). Also, a chunky percentage of dead will die in a particularly horrible and painful manner. So maybe it's right that there's a line there.

 

[A380]

Probably, because of the fear that people have over anything nuclear, their use may cause Europe to waiver in its support for Ukraine, so a solid line is drawn there?

I think the opposite, if Russia did use a nuclear weapon then the final fig leaf for the non-aligned would be gone and the non-aligned would probably become aligned and China would pull any support.

It also seems likely that all the back channels are letting all their contacts be in no doubt than anyone in the command structure involved in using a nuclear weapon* is going to be lucky to spend the rest of their life in a prison in Holland rather than danging from a gallows following Nuremberg 2.0. I want my MI6 money back if we aren't contributing to that.

(*Russian obvs. Not people on our side...)

 

[A380]

...Because really it doesn't make a whole load of sense ...

That's kind of the crux of the whole thing. How have we got to the point where many of our best physicists, engineers and administrators in the richest nations of the world have spent their lives building fantastic machines that can burn down whole cities from the far side of the world.

Mind you, the unilateralism I believed in for most of my life has taken a bit of a knock. So far only 50% of the countries that went down that route haven't been invaded...

 

[2hats]

I can't see the US responding with more nukes. Russia has more nukes than the US via quite some way

Total inventory which includes long term stored devices and assemblies awaiting refurbishment or destruction.

Actual serviceable devices, probably equal numbers at best, if not lower. Active deployed numbers roughly equal, though possibly more US are available.

Status of World Nuclear Forces

Globally, the overall inventory of nuclear weapons is declining, but the pace of reductions is slowing compared with the past 30 years.

fas.org

 

[maomao]

I think we need a nuclear scenarios thread tbh.

 

[xenon]

AKA nightmare fuel.

 

[two sheds]

yes we could move the discussion to the Benefits of Nuclear Power thread

 

[maomao]

AKA nightmare fuel.

Well yes, but also able to be ignored and not constantly dripping into the main war threads.

 

[elbows]

We grew up with this fear that a nuclear bomb will wipe out all life.

I wouldnt put it quite like that. There were a collection of fears. At one end of the collection was a large number of missiles being fired, leading to a sort of armageddon that changed life as we know it around the globe. Under that scenario some of the fictional representations of what survival would look like got rather silly, eg threads depicted people losing some of their fundamental human emotions in a way that did not ring true at all, as well as their ability to use language just because the education system was disrupted.

The original 1940s-1960s version of these fears were a response to technological change, this new form of horror via the arrival of the atomic age, the bombs dropped on Japan, the arms race, the amount of test bombs set off, coming to terms with the post WW2 global order. The 1980s rehash of the nuclear armageddon fears continued some of these themes but was a bit silly and surreal in some ways, and people varied in how seriously they really took the threat. There was some sense that it was part of a political game, a reheating of the cold war that could be treated with some skepticism, a sense that various domestic political agendas were being served by the stoking of this fear. And also the politics of nuclear disarmament vs the UK signing up to receive Trident missiles. New fears to justify the next generation of weapons, or to resist them, depending on where you stood. Things reached the serious stage of Sting doing a song about it, but no further.

A nuclear strike on a major city such as Kyiv will be met with a full nuclear response from the US/UK, it's pretty obvious that the US/UK systems work and the missiles will get to their targets, Moscow, St Petersburg etc. will be rubble within hours.

This scenario has not been tested and its pretty unclear whether one or more major powers will stop short of proceeding to mutually assured destruction during any of the phases of escalation that would lead up to that point. The entire logic of MAD is based on the power of threats and not really getting to the stage of testing the bluffs. We dont actually know what will happen if the brinkmanship ends up going further than ever before.

 

[kabbes]

I don’t have a clue what the Russian command is thinking. But I do know that I were in their shoes, I’d be avoiding nuclear weapons like the plague.

Russia has never been so weak militarily. Their combat ability has been massively degraded. They’re also already stretched across front lines. And the perception of them as a dangerous force has evaporated. I can’t believe there aren’t dead-eyed nutcases across China, the US and Europe that are salivating about the possibility of taking their opportunity to strike and carve it up. All they need is an excuse. Russia wants to be very careful not to trigger this.

I view the nuclear threats like my dog growling. He’s soft as shite but sound ferocious. And that’s because the growl is literally all he has to defend himself.

 

[planetgeli]

I think we need a nuclear scenarios thread tbh.

This started as one

The Kiss Your Arse Goodbye Thread

So Ukraine gets its way with the No Fly Zone. Russian and NATO forces clash. We're all shitting ourselves as to what will happen next... What would you do in the shadow of the nuclear holocaust other than think about how unlikely this was (1962 excepted) in the good old days of Cold War stability?

www.urban75.net

 

[DaveCinzano]

I think we need a nuclear scenarios thread tbh.

But please, no fighting in the Nuclear Scenarios Thread

 

[Nylock]

This started as one

The Kiss Your Arse Goodbye Thread

So Ukraine gets its way with the No Fly Zone. Russian and NATO forces clash. We're all shitting ourselves as to what will happen next... What would you do in the shadow of the nuclear holocaust other than think about how unlikely this was (1962 excepted) in the good old days of Cold War stability?

www.urban75.net

Trouble with that thread is that anyone attempting to discuss the doomsday scenarios gets lumped into the category of 'war enthusiast' by a certain poster and then it just degenerates into finger pointing and ad homs.

 

[The39thStep]

Trouble with that thread is that anyone attempting to discuss the doomsday scenarios gets lumped into the category of 'war enthusiast' by a certain poster and then it just degenerates into finger pointing and ad homs.

That's really unusual on here tbh

 

[Artaxerxes]

Trouble with that thread is that anyone attempting to discuss the doomsday scenarios gets lumped into the category of 'war enthusiast' by a certain poster and then it just degenerates into finger pointing and ad homs.

Let’s see who could that be?


Just don’t engage with him you fucking idiots

 

[two sheds]

Let’s see who could that be?


Just don’t engage with him you fucking idiots

Just don't engage with them

 

[Spymaster]

I can't see the US responding with more nukes. Russia has more nukes than the US via quite some way

That’s neither here nor there. Both sides have enough to blow the planet apart 10 times over.

 

[planetgeli]

Only one side's work so it'll all be fine.

 

[petee]

That said I am still not only just 'critical' but against the Stalinist conception of socialism and communism. Its (from their perspective) actualisation has been appalling far too many times and places to be taken as a serious alternative for future generations.

really!

 

[The39thStep]

Let’s see who could that be?


Just don’t engage with him you fucking idiots

Need to say this directly to one particular poster who obsessively engages and then calls for a ban.