Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[2hats]

That's a ground burst. A few miles underground might do it.

Gravitational binding energy of Earth is order of ~10^32J (ignoring chemical electrostatic/mechanical forces) (†).

Total global nuclear arsenal is order of ~10^19J (as per previous clue).

Not even close (it's as many orders of magnitude out as the energy of an apple dropping from a tree is from the detonation of Little Boy, or your punch is from the energy of a typical hurricane).

† 3GM²/5R = 3*(6.6743*10^-11)*(5.972*10^24)^2/(5*6.371*10^6)

 

[maomao]

Am thinking of starting one. Do you think it should be in this forum or another?

Science forum for a wider range of scenarios and less traffic; this forum for specifically Ukraine war related scenarios and more traffic.

 

[two sheds]

Where did they disappear to?’: Russian MP says 1.5 mln military uniforms are missing​

(article in English)

âWhere did they disappear to?â: Russian MP says 1.5 mln military uniforms are missing â Novaya Gazeta Europe

Russiaâs MP for Zabaykalsky region lieutenant general Andrey Gurulev has said that 1.5 million sets of military uniform had gone missing, reports local outlet Tayga.info.

novayagazeta.eu

have said before I used to work for Ferranti and they did oil contracts in Russia, whenever they sent equipment to a factory they used to enclose a gross of screwdrivers on the principle that at least a few would get through.

 

[Spymaster]

Gravitational binding energy of Earth is order of ~10^32J (ignoring chemical electrostatic/mechanical forces) (†).

Total global nuclear arsenal is order of ~10^19J (as per previous clue).

Not even close (it's as many orders of magnitude out as the energy of an apple dropping from a tree is from the detonation of Little Boy, or your punch is from the energy of a typical hurricane).

† 3GM²/5R = 3*(6.6743*10^-11)*(5.972*10^24)^2/(5*6.371*10^6)

Yaaaaawn.

 

[DaveCinzano]

I've often thought there wasn't enough maths on Urban

 

[MickiQ]

I bet you could crack the earth into bits if you combined them into a single weapon or set them all off simultaneously in the same place.

Not even close A guy by the name of Scott Manley was inspired by the Star Wars Death Star to work it out. To destroy the Earth would require approx 2.25x 10 to 32 joules or about 20 trillion times the total capacity of every nuclear weapon in the world.
It's approx the same amount of energy that the entire Sun puts out in a week so you have to wonder what the hell they fuel the Death Star with.

 

[weltweit]

Am thinking of starting one. Do you think it should be in this forum or another?

There already is a thread:

The Kiss Your Arse Goodbye Thread

So Ukraine gets its way with the No Fly Zone. Russian and NATO forces clash. We're all shitting ourselves as to what will happen next... What would you do in the shadow of the nuclear holocaust other than think about how unlikely this was (1962 excepted) in the good old days of Cold War stability?

www.urban75.net

 

[A380]

Where's the safe bet? Safest bet? I've always reckoned S.America can't have many nukes targeted their way.

Like that Canadian family who moved to Port Stanley in 1981 ad they thought that would be one of the safest places on Earth…

 

[DaveCinzano]

you have to wonder what the hell they fuel the Death Star with.

Good intentions and bad life choices

 

[2hats]

Yaaaaawn.

Only a few Joules at best.

 

[maomao]

Not even close A guy by the name of Scott Manley was inspired by the Star Wars Death Star to work it out. To destroy the Earth would require approx 2.25x 10 to 32 joules or about 20 trillion times the total capacity of every nuclear weapon in the world.
It's approx the same amount of energy that the entire Sun puts out in a week so you have to wonder what the hell they fuel the Death Star with.

Alderaan's a high bar. I was thinking blow a chunk off and fuck up the atmosphere.

 

[A380]

But the Earth isn’t like a solid snooker ball. It’s much more like a water balloon but with molten iron instead of water and about 10 miles of slag instead of rubber…

 

[The39thStep]

1956 declassified targets for USA nuclear strikes

 

[Dystopiary]

Science forum for a wider range of scenarios and less traffic; this forum for specifically Ukraine war related scenarios and more traffic.

Done.

potential nuclear scenario thread

aka the "Threads" thread

 

[Cid]

Alderaan's a high bar. I was thinking blow a chunk off and fuck up the atmosphere.

Chicxulub was 1.3e24 J to 5.8e25 J, which certainly fucked up the (non-avian) dinosaurs. But that's a fair bit more than 10^19 J.

Slightly daft diversion, but Sunday evening exemption.

 

[existentialist]

But the Earth isn’t like a solid snooker ball. It’s much more like a water balloon but with molten iron instead of water and about 10 miles of slag instead of rubber…

Let's face it, it's been hit by a planet and survived.

I think people mean "the Earth as we know it", or "people on Earth", or maybe even "the familiar ways of life and societal structures on Earth" when they talk about "the earth being destroyed".

I mean, a decent-sized nuclear exchange would definitely spoil your whole day...

 

[nogojones]

Science forum for a wider range of scenarios and less traffic; this forum for specifically Ukraine war related scenarios and more traffic.

Knobbin & sobbin, just to stir it up

 

[Rob Ray]

1956 declassified targets for USA nuclear strikes

View attachment 345533

Cheeky bastards.

 

[spitfire]

View attachment 345556

Cheeky bastards.

Fucking hell that’s a bit off.

 

[The39thStep]

View attachment 345556

Cheeky bastards.

Unfinished business about the UK's use of Hessian mercenaries in the Revolutionary War

 

[Dystopiary]

There already is a thread:

The Kiss Your Arse Goodbye Thread

So Ukraine gets its way with the No Fly Zone. Russian and NATO forces clash. We're all shitting ourselves as to what will happen next... What would you do in the shadow of the nuclear holocaust other than think about how unlikely this was (1962 excepted) in the good old days of Cold War stability?

www.urban75.net

Thought that was more "what would you think/do if our chips look to be cooked" kind of thing, rather than how it could actually happen, what would it mean and all the science-y stuff.
Started here anyway: Potential nuclear scenario
Like maomao suggested, in the science forum rather than specifically to do with the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

 

[2hats]

It would be interesting to know what the yanks have planned. Naval targets? Taking down sattelites? EPMs? Disconnecting the internet? Military targets too deep inside Russia would seem unwise.

Along the lines of the above: "Just to give you a hypothetical, we would respond by leading a NATO - a collective - effort that would take out every Russian conventional force that we can see and identify on the battlefield in Ukraine and also in Crimea and every ship in the Black Sea."

Petraeus: US would destroy Russia’s troops if Putin uses nuclear weapons in Ukraine

Former CIA director and retired army general says Moscow’s leader is ‘desperate’ and ‘battlefield reality he faces is irreversible’

www.theguardian.com

 

[Dystopiary]

The pushback just since the 1st of September has been remarkable.

Spoiler: large gif of Ukrainian advance

Subscribe to read | Financial Times

Didn't seem to be behind a paywall, but just in case: archive.ph

 

[Dystopiary]

The above map is already a bit out of date! It looks like Kreminna won't be under Russian occupation for much longer.

Meanwhile down south, the villages Arkhangelske and Myrolyubivka have been retaken (northern Kherson Oblast).

 

[Kaka Tim]

Adding to the above - saw this elsewhere. Not sure how much longer the Russia Army is going to last at this rate. Or the regime.

 

[keybored]

Ukrainian gains have been so swift they have apparently been occupying parts of four Russian oblasts since Friday.

 

[Rob Ray]

Mm usual reminder that rumours ain't reports. There's good evidence that they're at Torske, which puts them on the way to Kreminna and makes shelling plausible (well within range) but that's about it that I can see.

 

[Supine]

Good update here

 

[Pickman's model]

Good update here

Good positive, good accurate, good how?

 

[a_chap]

1956 declassified targets for USA nuclear strikes

View attachment 345533

What? Not even one tiny little one on France???