Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[A380]

Annexing territory you don't control doesn't seem like a steady-state, endgame type move to me. Putin has drawn those lines in 'law' because he's been unable to draw them in real life.

I think you may have hit on a solution. Instead of a clique of people in his inner circle trying to put a. bullet in his head, with all of the risk that entails, why don't they just announce that they have annexed all of mainland Europe, and Hampshire? Then Putin can live out his days peacefully administering his ghost empire whilst everyone else just gets on with their lives.

 

[Kaka Tim]

its looked this way for months - the annexation just makes the stand off official

The complete collapse of the Russian forces in kharkiv passed you by then?
And as we speak, the Ukrainians are on the verge of inflicting another major defeat in lyman.
Meanwhile the Russians are under heavy pressure in kherson.
Right now its far from a stalemate.
Losing kharkiv was a major blow and the resultant mobilisation and annexation are a sign of desperation.
It could be that winter will see a stalemate, but Ukraine will be in no mood to settle.
Or it could be that One more big defeat and the whole Russian army could collapse. Followed by the regime.
Russia 1917.germany 1918.

 

[ska invita]

The complete collapse of the Russian forces in kharkiv passed you by then?
And as we speak, the Ukrainians are on the verge of inflicting another major defeat in lyman.
Meanwhile the Russians are under heavy pressure in kherson.
Right now its far from a stalemate.
Losing kharkiv was a major blow and the resultant mobilisation and annexation are a sign of desperation.
It could be that winter will see a stalemate, but Ukraine will be in no mood to settle.
Or it could be that One more big defeat and the whole Russian army could collapse. Followed by the regime.
Russia 1917.germany 1918.

maybe.... who of us can know the future...im just giving you my perspective

 

[A380]

The complete collapse of the Russian forces in kharkiv passed you by then?
And as we speak, the Ukrainians are on the verge of inflicting another major defeat in lyman.
Meanwhile the Russians are under heavy pressure in kherson.
Right now its far from a stalemate.
Losing kharkiv was a major blow and the resultant mobilisation and annexation are a sign of desperation.
It could be that winter will see a stalemate, but Ukraine will be in no mood to settle.
Or it could be that One more big defeat and the whole Russian army could collapse. Followed by the regime.
Russia 1917.germany 1918.

Britain (almost) 1920...

 

[strung out]

Well there is a war on and theres small advances and gains on both sides, ultimately apart from at the edges the map of occupation has changed little in a long while now.
We do not have an impartial media narrative of what is happening. UK media talks up Ukrainian gains and plays down Russian ones. What are Ukrainian troop losses? Are they larger than Russian ones? There is absolutely no way of finding that out. If you just go by headlines it would be easy to get the impression that Ukraine Is Winning!!! And yes its been an unexpectedly effective resistance, but this territory objectively looks lost to me - and I think the Kremlin are equally confident that they've secured it.

Todays BBC map suggests more Russian advances than Ukrainian - only so much you can read from a map like this of course.

From where im sat it looks like successful annexation with slight movement to and fro on the front line

Was speaking to someone (from their armchair) who reckons there'll be a Russian winter offensive to consolidate the annexation further, which does explain the recent draft.

Ukraine took more territory in the first two weeks of September than Russia have done in total since May. More than just 'slight movement to and fro'.

Russia are no more capable of carrying out a winter offensive than I am of turning out for England at the World Cup this winter.

 

[Spymaster]

I've got a different perspective on all this
The Russian army has conquered the land corridor it was after and held for months now. It is not about to lose it. They dont want or need any major escalation from here, its all about consolidation.
Scary speeches and theatre are designed to cool off the opposition and its working.

As the winter drags on Ukraine will come to accept the annexations, though there will be a long running low level 'occupied territores' guerilla war for many years to come.
Even earlier in the war Zelensky made it clear he was prepared that Ukraine would lose territory, when peace talks were still a thing. No reason to believe the view deep down has changed on that.
This is mission accomplished for Putin, not the start of a new major escalation.
This is the beginning of the end of the war.

Russian state is shrewd: there's nothing to be gained by launching into a bigger nuclear conflict, and everything to lose. Why would they. They've already got what they wanted.

I'm not sure if this is more or less convincing than your staunch predictions back in February/March that no invasion would take place at all.

 

[ska invita]

I'm not sure if this is more or less convincing than your staunch predictions back in February/March that no invasion would take place at all.

great comeback

 

[ska invita]

I'm not sure if this is more or less convincing than your staunch predictions back in February/March that no invasion would take place at all.

for the record i dont remember making a staunch prediction there would be no invasion
i do remember saying that Liz Truss was overegging it to say they would invade all along the eastern front though
My memory was that i expected Russian forces to move into russian-speaking Donbas territory only.
Feel free to dig in my posts and find otherwise.

ultimately we are all on the sidelines looking through the fog trying to understand what is happening. im not a putinbot trying to win hearts and minds, i dont think my opinion has any influence on anything, im just sharing how things looks to me, which seems to be different from the majority on here somewhat so i thought worth stating

 

[not-bono-ever]

I'm not sure if this is more or less convincing than your staunch predictions back in February/March that no invasion would take place at all.

That was probably me tbh.

 

[maomao]

Most people on the thread were predicting all out war was unlikely until the 24th tbh. I was in an urban break but reading this thread logged out to try and keep my anxiety down.

 

[Pickman's model]

Most people on the thread were predicting all out war was unlikely until the 24th tbh. I was in an urban break but reading this thread logged out to try and keep my anxiety down.

Reading urban to keep anxiety down is like drinking for sobriety

 

[Pickman's model]

for the record i dont remember making a staunch prediction there would be no invasion
i do remember saying that Liz Truss was overegging it to say they would invade all along the eastern front though
My memory was that i expected Russian forces to move into russian-speaking Donbas territory only.
Feel free to dig in my posts and find otherwise.

ultimately we are all on the sidelines looking through the fog trying to understand what is happening. im not a putinbot trying to win hearts and minds, i dont think my opinion has any influence on anything, im just sharing how things looks to me, which seems to be different from the majority on here somewhat so i thought worth stating

There's no need to invoke memory at all as you can go back and check

 

[maomao]

Reading urban to keep anxiety down is like drinking for sobriety

I didn't say it worked.

* pours drink *

 

[SpookyFrank]

Yeah, I nearly wrote that - those people are attacking the homes and families of Ukrainians, so perhaps they've earned the right to call them names. So long as that isn't translating into a situation where, by dehumanising them, they are excusing brutalising them. Which I am sure is happening, but I hope it's not on the scale of what we've been seeing from the Russians in places like Bucha and Izyum.

The Ukrainians, and I'm sure there are some wrong 'uns among them as there will be in any armed force, aren't occupying anyone. So the maltreatment of civilians doesn't come up. As for how they treat Russian prisoners or deserters, it makes strategic sense to treat them well so as to encourage more desertions or surrenders. But then not every pissed off and exhausted soldier will be thinking about the big picture if they get one of the vicious invading horde in front of them. I don't know what I'd do in that situation, having seen acts of mass murder against my people.

 

[The39thStep]

Reading urban to keep anxiety down is like drinking for sobriety

Remember the two days it was hot in the U.K. ?

 

[maomao]

So the maltreatment of civilians doesn't come up. A

It does and has. Russians are moving civilians in to work in the occupied areas. Particularly teachers.

 

[Kaka Tim]

Well there is a war on and theres small advances and gains on both sides, ultimately apart from at the edges the map of occupation has changed little in a long while now.
We do not have an impartial media narrative of what is happening. UK media talks up Ukrainian gains and plays down Russian ones. What are Ukrainian troop losses? Are they larger than Russian ones? There is absolutely no way of finding that out. If you just go by headlines it would be easy to get the impression that Ukraine Is Winning!!! And yes its been an unexpectedly effective resistance, but this territory objectively looks lost to me - and I think the Kremlin are equally confident that they've secured it.

Todays BBC map suggests more Russian advances than Ukrainian - only so much you can read from a map like this of course.

From where im sat it looks like successful annexation with slight movement to and fro on the front line

Was speaking to someone (from their armchair) who reckons there'll be a Russian winter offensive to consolidate the annexation further, which does explain the recent draft.

Id argue that most of the reporting of whats happening in our media has proven to be pretty accurate. And I can't recall any major bullshit claims coming from the ukranian side - plenty from the russians. Organisations like bellingcat and ISW are using detailed geolocation and verifiable reports to identify whats going on (interestingly a lot is coming from pro-Russian military bloggers who have contacts on the front lines). I think your map is confusing as it seems to showing Russian advances going back months - not whats happened over the past few weeks (which is quite a lot) . Rusaia was slowly grinding forward in the east since June - but isnt making any advnaces anywhere now. That big purple bit in the top right is what Urkaine got back in about 10 days in september - and is about to take a chunk more
Militarily Russia's best hope is just to hold on what its got. Its army is being steadily degraded in terms of equipment, personal and morale. Ukraine is taking losses too - but overall its getting stronger while russia is getting weaker.

 

[existentialist]

The Ukrainians, and I'm sure there are some wrong 'uns among them as there will be in any armed force, aren't occupying anyone. So the maltreatment of civilians doesn't come up. As for how they treat Russian prisoners or deserters, it makes strategic sense to treat them well so as to encourage more desertions or surrenders. But then not every pissed off and exhausted soldier will be thinking about the big picture if they get one of the vicious invading horde in front of them. I don't know what I'd do in that situation, having seen acts of mass murder against my people.

I think there was some reporting, earlier in the war, of Ukrainian soldiers shooting captured Russians in the legs. I can't vouch for its veracity, and I think people were in general rather more accepting of things on face value than they are now. But I wouldn't be surprised if, at least at an individual level, there are Ukrainian soldiers for whom revenge feels like an acceptable justification for brutality.

I'm also slightly queasy about the propagandising that goes on - there's a well-known series of "interviews" with Russian POWs, often where they have been given the opportunity to phone home, and where the interviewer takes the opportunity to lecture the parents/loved ones about why their son (or whoever) was in Ukraine. I'd have thought there was more propaganda mileage in just treating the POWs decently, and not being quite so blatant with the overt propaganda element.

But that's a pretty long way from shelling refugee columns and then claiming the Ukrainians did it, or what went on in Bucha, and elsewhere.

 

[Rob Ray]

Looks like Lyman may be about to fall, with 5,000 encircled.

 

[existentialist]

Looks like Lyman may be about to fall, with 5,000 encircled.

That flag's seen better days!

 

[2hats]

Was speaking to someone (from their armchair) who reckons there'll be a Russian winter offensive to consolidate the annexation further, which does explain the recent draft.

UA switching from M31A1/2 to M30A1. Winter might grant them more time to source sufficient refrigerated train cars (and would then also likely contribute).

🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons)

#Ukraine: Ukraine received new rockets for HIMARS/M270- here we can see a pod of M30A1 guided rockets. M30A1 differs from previously seen M31A1/A2 by an alternative warhead with 182000 preformed spheroid steel/tungsten fragments and is designed to be used against soft targets.

nitter.it

 

[Cid]

I'm less convinced. Given the enormous amounts of money that must be up for grabs around maintenance of nuclear bombs (and taking as read the epic levels of endemic corruption in Russia), not to mention the "we're never going to need these, are we?" mindset which seems to have afflicted maintenance of more mundane hardware, I'd have thought that the nuclear option was, if anything, even more susceptible to thievery.

At least, I really, really hope so. I wouldn't want to be around to find it out for real, but the idea that a strategic nuclear strike ended up being a bunch of "fizzles" has some appeal...

Yep... The Russian navy was also supposed to be the branch that had the money, the prestige etc. And yet the Moskva, a ship specifically designed to coordinate and implement air defence, was sunk (very likely) by missiles. There's an (alleged) maintenance report issued just prior to the invasion that reveals a pattern of complete neglect; systems not working, leaking doors, cannibalised parts, engine issues etc. I would imagine the nuclear branch is far from immune. Not that that's very reassuring; a somewhat smaller number of badly aimed nukes is still a lot of nukes.

 

[TopCat]

Given that I'm doing some of the sneering, I'll keep my own counsel on who, and what, I'm sneering at thanks.

...

 

[rubbershoes]

Russian forces launched a missile attack on Dnipro last night.

Our guests are from Dnipro. They still have family there

 

[existentialist]

Yep... The Russian navy was also supposed to be the branch that had the money, the prestige etc. And yet the Moskva, a ship specifically designed to coordinate and implement air defence, was sunk (very likely) by missiles. There's an (alleged) maintenance report issued just prior to the invasion that reveals a pattern of complete neglect; systems not working, leaking doors, cannibalised parts, engine issues etc. I would imagine the nuclear branch is far from immune. Not that that's very reassuring; a somewhat smaller number of badly aimed nukes is still a lot of nukes.

I think the scope for cockups on the nuclear front is even broader. Missile fuel is nasty, corrosive, dangerous stuff that's a pain to handle. What are the possibilities that the necessary maintenance on just the business of getting the thing out of its hole in the ground has been done, let alone properly? It could be that an awful lot of them just go "bang" in place (ISTR that the launch failure rate of even their fancy-schmancy Iskander and Kalibr missiles is, er, non-trivial, in some cases due to poor handling/storage). Then there's the guidance stuff. All before you get to the physics bit. I'm also thinking that quite a lot of the important stuff for a nuclear weapon is very expensive, and thus tempting to cut corners on, with plenty of trousering potential for the allocated cash.

So, an optimistic scenario might be simply that a lot of the missiles don't even get that far off the ground. Still messy, and a non-nuclear explosion with a plutonium warhead isn't going to be a bundle of laughs, but decidedly less unfunny than a high rate of successful detonations.

It all doesn't bear thinking about, really, so some of this is probably me trying to be as hopeful as I can be...

 

[Dogsauce]

With Americans there's also a legacy of 'red scare' propaganda from the Cold War, the Russkies etc, which still feeds into nationalistic views regarding the old rival. So to see the parlous state of a military once vaunted as one of the most feared in the world gives those inclined to make a national superiority complex a part of their personality a good deal of satisfaction in their mockery.

A few of the people I follow on my Ukrainian warscrolling Twitter account for info seem to be carrying 40-yr old grudges from the Cold War era, crush the commie scum etc. Same people banging on about the failings/evil of socialism. Them and the tankies seem under some weird misconception that Russia is still communist.

 

[Artaxerxes]

Most people on the thread were predicting all out war was unlikely until the 24th tbh. I was in an urban break but reading this thread logged out to try and keep my anxiety down.

Literally three quarters of the western world were of the opinion it wouldn’t happen, he couldn’t be fucking serious. (Much like WW1 tbf)


He was, but so were the Ukrainians

 

[Kaka Tim]

I think the scope for cockups on the nuclear front is even broader. Missile fuel is nasty, corrosive, dangerous stuff that's a pain to handle. What are the possibilities that the necessary maintenance on just the business of getting the thing out of its hole in the ground has been done, let alone properly? It could be that an awful lot of them just go "bang" in place (ISTR that the launch failure rate of even their fancy-schmancy Iskander and Kalibr missiles is, er, non-trivial, in some cases due to poor handling/storage). Then there's the guidance stuff. All before you get to the physics bit. I'm also thinking that quite a lot of the important stuff for a nuclear weapon is very expensive, and thus tempting to cut corners on, with plenty of trousering potential for the allocated cash.

So, an optimistic scenario might be simply that a lot of the missiles don't even get that far off the ground. Still messy, and a non-nuclear explosion with a plutonium warhead isn't going to be a bundle of laughs, but decidedly less unfunny than a high rate of successful detonations.

It all doesn't bear thinking about, really, so some of this is probably me trying to be as hopeful as I can be...

Cheers for that - sounds highly plausible. I wonder how aware Putin is of the probable serious unreliability of his cherished WMDs? If he is - you'd imagine that counts against him trying to use them. You wouldn't have thought that chucking 10 nukes at Ukraine in the hope that at least one a. gets where it supposed to go and b. actually detonates is very helpful when you are trying to finely calibrate how close you can go to WW3 without crossing the line.

 

[existentialist]

Cheers for that - sounds highly plausible. I wonder how aware Putin is of the probable serious unreliability of his cherished WMDs? If he is - you'd imagine that counts against him trying to use them. You wouldn't have thought that chucking 10 nukes at Ukraine in the hope that at least one a. gets where it supposed to go and b. actually detonates is very helpful when you are trying to finely calibrate how close you can go to WW3 without crossing the line.

Well, the other bit of the picture is that the system strongly encourages not reporting the truth back up the line of command...so he's probably oblivious.

 

[Superdupastupor]

Can't help wondering if some of the 40-50 year old guys I met and had a random drunk barbecue with in Torzhok have been packed off to the front

My Russian mate (residing in German, thank fuck) has a brother in his
mid-20', young, post-service, Tartar too fwiw. I'm getting low grade 3rdº anxiety from it all.
What's the UN hotline number for offering asylum??