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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

I can see Ivan going to town on Kiev imminently.they think they have nothing to lose I suspect

Well, they have missiles to lose. Excuse the callousness... But there has been reason to believe they've been being more conservative with that kind of weapon since May/June. Particularly with their high precision stuff... Counter argument to that might be that it's just an excuse to start attacking civilian targets with dumb(er) long range weapons... They have soviet-era systems that were designed to deliver nukes and might only be accurate to within a few hundred meters. But a) I don't think they've really hesitated to do that anyway, and b) iirc they've been making use of those as part of wider missile attacks (they work as decoys for air defence, more chance for precision munitions). They likely also have similar issues with aircraft, particularly since attacks on Crimea.

Not too sure what it implies tbh. Entirely possible they'll dig into precision stocks to attack some symbolic target or other in Kyiv... Also we know so little about what's going on in occupied Ukraine... That's a huge concern I think.
 
There is also the case that every strike on Kyiv or wherever is one less strike where there is actual fighting.

So what have they got to loss? The war.
 
Well, they have missiles to lose. Excuse the callousness... But there has been reason to believe they've been being more conservative with that kind of weapon since May/June. Particularly with their high precision stuff... Counter argument to that might be that it's just an excuse to start attacking civilian targets with dumb(er) long range weapons... They have soviet-era systems that were designed to deliver nukes and might only be accurate to within a few hundred meters. But a) I don't think they've really hesitated to do that anyway, and b) iirc they've been making use of those as part of wider missile attacks (they work as decoys for air defence, more chance for precision munitions). They likely also have similar issues with aircraft, particularly since attacks on Crimea.

Not too sure what it implies tbh. Entirely possible they'll dig into precision stocks to attack some symbolic target or other in Kyiv... Also we know so little about what's going on in occupied Ukraine... That's a huge concern I think.


They might not have ammo to lose…

 


:eek: this is real - aka the molotov ribbentrop Pact

Denazification going well :facepalm:


Up to 2:21 that was a relatively reasonable view of history, but that last slide is wrong on every level - not only omitting what they actually did (ie: invaded Poland and the Baltics and butchered 0000s), but also the military effect as well (which was to dangle hundreds of thousands of Red Army troops way out to the West, with few proper defences and likely to get mown down if the Nazis invaded*) and of course the strategic disbelief on Stalin's part that greeted the failure of the pact, which literally made him have a nervous breakdown.

* which is of course what happened to the poor bastards
 
Up to 2:21 that was a relatively reasonable view of history, but that last slide is wrong on every level - not only omitting what they actually did (ie: invaded Poland and the Baltics and butchered 0000s), but also the military effect as well (which was to dangle hundreds of thousands of Red Army troops way out to the West, with few proper defences and likely to get mown down if the Nazis invaded*) and of course the strategic disbelief on Stalin's part that greeted the failure of the pact, which literally made him have a nervous breakdown.

* which is of course what happened to the poor bastards
And it wasn't just non-aggression but an agreement to carve up Poland and the Baltics. No excuses for Stalin will ever work.
 
And it wasn't just non-aggression but an agreement to carve up Poland and the Baltics. No excuses for Stalin will ever work.

To be fair you don't have to be making excuses for Stalin to say that the eastern border of Poland in 1940 was set by a Polish war of imperial aggression in 1919-21 and that the places invaded by the USSR in 1940 were hardly "Poland" in any meaningful sense.
 
The U.K. must have been devastated that after all its overtures to the USSR for a pact against Hitler that Stalin went the other way .
 
6 threads here based on a Russian para’s memoir. It’s damning stuff and certainly echoes a lot of the rumours we’ve been hearing. The details ring true so I think it is probably kosher. Long but interesting.


I posted that here days ago and have been trying to keep up with newly translated extracts as they appear. The Washington Post has a bit saying a prisoner's fingers and genitals were cut off. Have you seen that anywhere?
 
I posted that here days ago and have been trying to keep up with newly translated extracts as they appear. The Washington Post has a bit saying a prisoner's fingers and genitals were cut off. Have you seen that anywhere?

I thought I may have seen it earlier, sorry.

Yes there is a bit, I think it may be in part 4.
 
... the eastern border of Poland in 1940 was set by a Polish war of imperial aggression in 1919-21 and that the places invaded by the USSR in 1940 were hardly "Poland" in any meaningful sense.
Hmm, I'd love to hear what Poles have to say about this!
 
To be fair you don't have to be making excuses for Stalin to say that the eastern border of Poland in 1940 was set by a Polish war of imperial aggression in 1919-21 and that the places invaded by the USSR in 1940 were hardly "Poland" in any meaningful sense.
All borders are artificial in some sense, but all the USSR's borders were created by war and conquest. Vast areas of the world do not have neat ethnic dividing lines, certainly not matching any likely geographical boundaries such as rivers, mountains etc etc. Most of the area grabbed by Stalin was not populated by ethnic Russians either, but by a right old mixture of people, Ukrainians, Belarusians, Poles, Jews, Germans etc. No state should attempt to grab parts of another just because it can, nor massacre tens of thousands of people in the process. I'm not quite sure what point you're trying to make. Was it Ok for Stalin to do what he did? Or just a bit ok? Or was it ok except for the massacres? Or would it have been ok if the Nazis hadn't been involved?
 
All borders are artificial in some sense, but all the USSR's borders were created by war and conquest. Vast areas of the world do not have neat ethnic dividing lines, certainly not matching any likely geographical boundaries such as rivers, mountains etc etc. Most of the area grabbed by Stalin was not populated by ethnic Russians either, but by a right old mixture of people, Ukrainians, Belarusians, Poles, Jews, Germans etc. No state should attempt to grab parts of another just because it can, nor massacre tens of thousands of people in the process. I'm not quite sure what point you're trying to make. Was it Ok for Stalin to do what he did? Or just a bit ok? Or was it ok except for the massacres? Or would it have been ok if the Nazis hadn't been involved?

Thanks for stating the mostly pretty obvious. My point isn't really altered; the USSR didn't really in any meaningful sense "carve up Poland" (your words). It grabbed a load of land off Poland that Poland had itself grabbed at gun point a couple of decades earlier. Land that had, at best, a small minority of population that were "Polish" - many of whom were large landowners who were little better than colonial-plantation overlords of other nationalities. Unsurprisingly they were not popular with the majority populations or the USSR. I'm not sure how stating that makes me a Stalin apologist.
 
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