Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[Duncan2]

Yep STW would be going full strength on it if they thought there was any widespread popular opposition. Instead they're having to have "teach ins" etc to try and explain why everyone's wrong.

Not that widespread popular opposition would prevent the government taking us to war if it chose to do so.

 

[editor]

Not that widespread popular opposition would prevent the government taking us to war if it chose to do so.

Indeed. But that wasn't the point being made here, was it?

 

[The39thStep]

Neither NATO or Russia are at war, having a debate would be pushing that closer. Ukraine clearly are not been given the tools by NATO to win back any significant amount of territory.
Just enough it seems to show the world who's more powerful and not enough to humiliate Putain in to a full war.
Arming a missile, providing coordinates and instructing a ukr pilot when to press a button is pretty involved but it seems if that happened no one wants to admit it.

Im a little puzzled by this . If Ukraine aren’t being given the tools by NATO are you saying that those on here who support NATO are being conned ? Or is their support for NATO conditional on NATO not giving the Ukrainian the tools ?

 

[Dogsauce]

Btw, it is widely suspected that the attack on the airbase in crimea was undertaken with a missile developed domestically, not something supplied by NATO. It was known that they had almost completed development of a 300km range munition just ahead of the war (and may have had some western help finishing it off). The recent degradation of Russian air defences may have helped. Also known that the launcher fires two missiles, which is consistent with the two simultaneous explosions in different munition storage areas of the base.

Ukraine is however claiming this was a special forces hit, but then they would say that. Russia claims it was an accident, breach of procedure, whilst simultaneously threatening revenge. Also claim one death but no damage to aircraft, despite photos appearing of destroyed airframes and other Russian reports stating a death toll of 60 comprising pilots and support staff.

OSINT types on Twitter are being frustrated by cloud cover preventing any confirmatory satellite imagery of the damage, which will be being hastily cleaned up.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Russia claims it was an accident, breach of procedure, whilst simultaneously threatening revenge.

They are not very good at this propaganda malarkey.

 

[spitfire]

They are not very good at this propaganda malarkey.

They really are tho.



(vid may be an old one but funny nonetheless)

 

[spitfire]

They really are tho.



(vid may be an old one but funny nonetheless)

Yeah, 2018.

Spoiler: tweet

 

[agricola]

In our system of government it's parliament that gives, or refuses permission - if you've been watching or listening to parliament/MP's for the last 6 months+ you'll know that MP's are overwhelmingly supportive of government policy - which is financial, logistics, intelligence, training and material support to Ukraine, and economic on political warfare with Russia. the usual suspects might go on Press TV occasionally, but out of 650 they probably represent less than 100 who either oppose UK support, or have qualms about opposing Russia.

If parliament voted 550 to 100 to raising the minimum wage to £20ph you'd probably think that was decisive and beyond opposition - government has a policy, which it briefs opposition MP's about on a regular basis, no one raises any objection, and they proclaim support - this is about the same, so...

I think the problem with that though is that Parliament really doesn't know, in the main, what it is backing. On the most simple level - UK support for a friendly nation that has been attacked - they have been asked and are in favour (as many people are), but when it comes to the real detail of what is actually happening, what the government are actually doing, why they are doing (or not doing) it and whether it is effective they are not being asked (and the vast majority of them probably lack the experience to understand what the problems would be and ask the right questions anyway).

I mean take defence spending for example; not only we now face a much more serious security situation in Eastern Europe, to the oceans around the UK and globally we are also engaged in supplying the Ukrainians with sizeable quantities of military aid which is currently being met from stockpiles. The government haven't given any indication they are ramping up munitions production to restore those stockpiles, or lay in more for our own use, nor are they increasing the capacity to produce more in the future, nor are they reversing the 2021 defence review and its cuts even though it has been proved obviously wrong by events. We are nearly six months into the war at this point and we stand out noticeably amongst our NATO allies in that respect, most of whom are revamping their armed forces.

In the mid-1930s there were plenty of MPs with military experience who were able to warn of what would be required in the event of a big war, and managed to (just) get things in place. Yet the current lot are serenely failing to do anything, just as they are failing to do anything about all manner of crises afflicting us at present. I am not sure why, after looking into what we are doing now, anyone should support what we are doing beyond that simplest level of we are doing something.

 

[Dogsauce]

Satellite pics of the airfield attack are now appearing. At least nine attack aircraft (possibly 14) destroyed, most probably damaged during secondary explosions as stored ammunition cooked off. Good result lads. Waiting to see how long Russia can maintain their story of no aircraft being damaged by the ’accidental’ explosion. Nine planes is a lot of dropped cigarettes. I expect they might be quite cross about this.

 

[spitfire]

Interesting analysis here. No real conclusions about how they did it yet.

They bonked that airfield badly.

How did Ukraine strike deep inside Russian-occupied Crimea?

Theories abound to explain how a daring and successful attack on a Russian air base in the Crimean Peninsula was carried out.

news.yahoo.com

 

[Yossarian]

Nine planes is a lot of dropped cigarettes. I expect they might be quite cross about this.

The Kremlin has released a photo of the private suspected of having violated fire safety regulations.

 

[Duncan2]

I think the problem with that though is that Parliament really doesn't know, in the main, what it is backing. On the most simple level - UK support for a friendly nation that has been attacked - they have been asked and are in favour (as many people are), but when it comes to the real detail of what is actually happening, what the government are actually doing, why they are doing (or not doing) it and whether it is effective they are not being asked (and the vast majority of them probably lack the experience to understand what the problems would be and ask the right questions anyway).

I mean take defence spending for example; not only we now face a much more serious security situation in Eastern Europe, to the oceans around the UK and globally we are also engaged in supplying the Ukrainians with sizeable quantities of military aid which is currently being met from stockpiles. The government haven't given any indication they are ramping up munitions production to restore those stockpiles, or lay in more for our own use, nor are they increasing the capacity to produce more in the future, nor are they reversing the 2021 defence review and its cuts even though it has been proved obviously wrong by events. We are nearly six months into the war at this point and we stand out noticeably amongst our NATO allies in that respect, most of whom are revamping their armed forces.

In the mid-1930s there were plenty of MPs with military experience who were able to warn of what would be required in the event of a big war, and managed to (just) get things in place. Yet the current lot are serenely failing to do anything, just as they are failing to do anything about all manner of crises afflicting us at present. I am not sure why, after looking into what we are doing now, anyone should support what we are doing beyond that simplest level of we are doing something.

Totally.Every time we become embroiled in a foreign war the basic antipathy between war and democratic government becomes evident.Its shoot first and ask questions later because it has to be.

 

[strung out]

Satellite pics of the airfield attack are now appearing. At least nine attack aircraft (possibly 14) destroyed, most probably damaged during secondary explosions as stored ammunition cooked off. Good result lads. Waiting to see how long Russia can maintain their story of no aircraft being damaged by the ’accidental’ explosion. Nine planes is a lot of dropped cigarettes. I expect they might be quite cross about this.

This puts the losses into context somewhat

 

[WhyLikeThis]

If true, an interesting development.

 

[A380]

Who asked our permission for this?

I got a letter with a tear off reply strip on the bottom.

 

[elbows]

More of the same in regards the nuclear plant:

UN alarm as Ukraine nuclear power plant shelled again

Ukraine and Russia trade blame as the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, Europe's largest, is hit.

www.bbc.co.uk

The G7's position on this is so consistent with other war aims and stances that it doesnt really add anything or offer a way forward on this specific issue, since it calls for Russia to give control of the plant back to Ukraine. If there is any prospect for progress then it comes from the latter part of the statement, where support of the IAEA and their desire to visit the plant is underlined. But its still not clear to me that Ukraine is willing to do its bit to facilitate such a visit if the plant remains in Russian hands - they made some positive noises about this the other day but I've not been able to definitively separate the issue of the IAEA visit from control of the plant when it comes to their stance, I will take another look at this now. Likewise the final part of this bit of the G7s statement and what it is supposed to mean in practice. ie its not clear if they have a plan for how to do that that doesnt involve handing the plant back to Ukraine, and the extent to which they actually support a IAEA visit without such strings being attached.

Against this background, we underline the importance of facilitating a mission of IAEA experts to the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant to address nuclear safety, security and safeguard concerns, in a manner that respects full Ukrainian sovereignty over its territory and infrastructure.

Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant in Ukraine: G7 foreign ministers' statement

The G7 foreign ministers gave a statement in support of the IAEA's efforts to promote nuclear safety and security at the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant.

www.gov.uk

 

[David Clapson]

Yeah, 2018.

Spoiler: tweet

Dummy inflatable weapons as a decoy. So what? They've been a thing since WW2

 

[UnderOpenSky]

Dummy inflatable weapons as a decoy. So what? They've been a thing since WW2

We (the British) even dropped a wooden bomb on a fake airfield.

 

[Pickman's model]

They really are tho.



(vid may be an old one but funny nonetheless)

All war is deception - Sun tzu

 

[Pickman's model]

Dummy inflatable weapons as a decoy. So what? They've been a thing since WW2

Quaker guns go back much further, using logs to simulate cannon

 

[two sheds]

All war is deception - Sun tzu

Deflating the deception

 

[Dogsauce]

Interesting analysis here. No real conclusions about how they did it yet.

They bonked that airfield badly.

How did Ukraine strike deep inside Russian-occupied Crimea?

Theories abound to explain how a daring and successful attack on a Russian air base in the Crimean Peninsula was carried out.

news.yahoo.com

People are beginning to believe the special ops theory more since there’s no sign of anything incoming on any of the various videos of the blast. Either planted explosives (would security be that lax?) or drone/loitering munition strike. A handful of Switchblades would do the job nicely.

There’s also the usefulness of it being a tourist area, so probably quite easy for undercover operatives to come and go unnoticed.

If they were really smart they should have drone-dropped a few fragments from one of the 120km range HIMARS missiles, just to have the bastards really scratching their heads.

 

[The39thStep]

All war is deception - Sun tzu

An inflatable dummy Sherman tank, one of many deceptions that Maskelyne claimed to have created.

 

[Pickman's model]

View attachment 337105
An inflatable dummy Sherman tank, one of many deceptions that Maskelyne claimed to have created.

if you read the stratagems of frontinus, there's bits in there about deception in ancient warfare. none of this is new, save the inflation

 

[spitfire]

Dummy inflatable weapons as a decoy. So what? They've been a thing since WW2

I know. Just mildly amusing. Should have put it on the meme thread but cupid stunts comment was asking for it.

Me in 1944:



Me more recently:



#RAFLuton

 

[agricola]

View attachment 337105
An inflatable dummy Sherman tank, one of many deceptions that Maskelyne claimed to have created.

not just tanks and planes either - near where I grew up there was a mountainside that disguised itself as Liverpool of an evening.

 

[kebabking]

One of the fundamentals of deception operations - and forgive me if I get too technical here - is that the enemy should not (ideally) be able to tell that, and in what way, you are engaged in deception operations because your inflatable missile launcher is flapping about on TV like an out-of-control bouncy castle...

 

[The39thStep]

not just tanks and planes either - near where I grew up there was a mountainside that disguised itself as Liverpool of an evening.

There was also the decoy harbor at Alexandria

 

[belboid]

not just tanks and planes either - near where I grew up there was a mountainside that disguised itself as Liverpool of an evening.

Starfish sites, for some reason. Sheffield steelworks were ‘recreated’ about five miles away

Starfish site - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[cupid_stunt]

One of the fundamentals of deception operations - and forgive me if I get too technical here - is that the enemy should not (ideally) be able to tell that, and in what way, you are engaged in deception operations because your inflatable missile launcher is flapping about on TV like an out-of-control bouncy castle...

I was going to point that out, but you've nailed it with that post.