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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

How is the threat of Ukraine becoming a member of NATO not a provocation to Putin?

As an independent country it was up to Ukraine if they wanted to apply to join NATO. Their country, their choice.

It would have been a provocation for sure, but their joining wasn’t on the cards in the near future; so blaming this on NATO is just agreing with Putins silly bollox excuse for a land grab.
 
How is the threat of Ukraine becoming a member of NATO not a provocation to Putin?
It wasn't about to join NATO. And even if was - it would still be an unprovoked attack - in that there was no imminent threat to Russia to justify the use of force. Big difference between standard cynical geo-political/strategic manoeuvring and launching an whole sale fucking blitzkrieg on your neighbour.
 
As an independent country it was up to Ukraine if they wanted to apply to join NATO. Their country, their choice.
That's naive, though, isn't it? It's not the world we live in. As was said above, the US never accepted the idea of Cuba being in a military alliance with the Soviet Union, and wouldn't accept an equivalent today either. It's all very good to talk about freedom and democracy, but NATO isn't an arm of democracy and never has been.
 
People keep stating this almost as if it wouldn't follow Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia in doing so. Furthermore, membership of NATO and the EU was added to their constitution in 2019.

Try reading the thread, they could not join NATO, because of the border dispute border dispute created in 2014.
 
People keep stating this almost as if it wouldn't follow Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia in doing so. Furthermore, membership of NATO and the EU was added to their constitution in 2019.

So what? It wasn't about to happen any time soon - essentially because it would have massively inflamed the situation. Ireland had reunification in its constitution until very recently - nobody thought they were ever likely to invade Ulster though.
 
At least we don't have Trump in the white house right now, lets hope he doesn't get in next time and be allowed to weaken Nato and change Putin's calculation of risk again.
 
At least we don't have Trump in the white house right now, lets hope he doesn't get in next time and be allowed to weaken Nato and change Putin's calculation of risk again.
be interesting to see how Trump's blatant sucking up to the someone who is now very much seen as the worlds greatest villain will affect his comeback.
 
We were talking about 'provocation'. I'm not defending Putin but it's reported he said it was a 'red line', the US refused to take it off the table and here we are.

hmm as has been stated they could not of joined nato because of the seperatist states

putin causes and funded, supplied troops for Camiera and the other 2

so they could not join nato but he still invaded?

whilst doing a hitler like speech rewriting history but its the usa / nato fault?

what have i missed?
 
This is the statement that is going to get 11 MPs kicked out of the Labour Party


the last line is important for the context of this thread though and the talk about treasonous anti-NATO sentiment etc:
"We send our solidarity to all those campaigning for an end to the war, often under very difficult conditions, in Russia and Ukraine. Stop the War can best support them by demanding a change in Britain’s own policy, which can be seen to have failed."

Living in Britain as a citizen and subject my already very limited agency is only on the role of the British state. We have no influence on Putin, but we do have potential influence on our own state. It is right that our criticisms begin at home
 
why it has more simulartities to the start of the second world war than to the cold war

or should we let putin get to east berlin before we think he might of lost it a bit
Because there's a huge hangover from the Cold War for Russia because they lost it. And their enemy from that (us) are slowly encroaching them.
No, I don't think it gives him the 'right' to invade Ukraine but trying to figure out how his paranoia has led to this.
 
This Paranoia line i believe is mistaken this is a cynical land grab to expand in territories he believe should be part of russia


spend 6 years testing the international response and has found it wanting so fuck it invade
 
A completely unprovoked full on invasion is way, way beyond that and unprecedented in its scale and potential repercussions in post WW2 European (or world?) history. Its also batshit - it can only really end badly for Putin - it will unite all Russia's rivals and push all it western neighbours into NATO. This is strategy driven by paranoia and ardent nationalism rather than rational self interest - so is hugely dangerous. That's what i meant by kicking the table over.

I dont know what to make of your post-WW2 sense of history in Europe. Take events of 1968 for example:


I expect for you the key difference is the sense you have of the 'unprovoked' nature of things on this occasion, and your failure to understand Putins rationale. I dont think I currently know the whole story on that, but for a start whats happening now can easily be filed under 'unfinished business'.

In terms of justifications for invasion where no credible military provocation is available, we've already seen examples of that this century such as the invasion of Iraq. If a world power decides to mount such an invasion then they will do so even if the pretext is flimsy and does not stand up to proper scrutiny, even if everyone really knows that the emperor has no clothes on.

I dont agree with claiming that there can only be one ending as well, that it can only end badly for Putin and/or Russia. There are scenarios where it ends badly and scenarios where it doesnt. And predicting these things isnt easy. Take the invasion of Czechoslovakia that I linked to, which was eventually seen as both an event which managed to end up contributing to a form of peace with the USA in the 1970s, but also fractured some global communist solidarity and propaganda in ways that may have contributed heavily to the eventual dissolution of the Soviet Union. And if making comparisons to that and what could go wrong for Russia this time, some of those things are things that Russia doesnt have in the first place this time, so arent theirs to lose in this conflict.

In some ways its surprising that its taken Putin this long to go this far with the agenda. He's always been painted as someone with these agendas on his mind, claims that history ended when the Soviet Union collapsed were laughable, and it never seemed likely that Russia would be content with only limited ambitions for all eternity. With the benefit of hindsight I am not surprised that Ukraine and Belarus turned out to be beyond the limit of what they would take on the chin, and now there is bloody pushback.
 
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