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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

Nice fireworks display from the Ukrainian artillery team. Russian ammo dump going big boom, lots of grad rockets flying about randomly. All these could have ended up flattening residential areas.

nb. Turn the sound off because Nickleback.

 
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agricola said:
Probably due to Scholz's recent comments about basing a NATO battalion there.
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Flavour said:
Lithuania in particular, lol. Because they border Kaliningrad?
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Both, with added pandering to China. Lithuania is the hardest and most public on China. Our friend needs friends...

Lithuania, and the other Eastern states, have long been pressing for - and have now been granted - a change in NATO military posture.

The previous/current posture is called 'tripwire'. It's simply enough NATO forces in the border states so that old Vlad the Invader wouldn't invade and find himself at war with NATO by accident. The new posture is called Forward Defence, and it's placing enough force, and at sufficient readiness, to fight any incursion right there, on the border.

Tripwire is a political strategy. Forward Defence is a military strategy.

Vlad remains a master strategist.
 
kebabking said:
Both, with added pandering to China. Lithuania is the hardest and most public on China. Our friend needs friends...

Lithuania, and the other Eastern states, have long been pressing for - and have now been granted - a change in NATO military posture.

The previous/current posture is called 'tripwire'. It's simply enough NATO forces in the border states so that old Vlad the Invader wouldn't invade and find himself at war with NATO by accident. The new posture is called Forward Defence, and it's placing enough force, and at sufficient readiness, to fight any incursion right there, on the border.

Tripwire is a political strategy. Forward Defence is a military strategy.

Vlad remains a master strategist.
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It isn't forward defence though - even if NATO triples what is there you are still talking only 4000/5000 personnel, which is nowhere near sufficient force to prevent the sort of incursion which would come and potentially it is leaving that unit in a particularly dangerous situation, exposed way out there and with uncertain supply lines. They'd have been much better advised to help the Lithuanian military ramp up its own numbers.

As with the cause of that China spat (and so much of the response to this war) it seems to be more about gesture-making than anything sensible or useful. I really wish they'd stop doing things like it.
 
Not been posting in thread for a while but following still and Ive found Patrick Lancasters videos interesting reporting from the front line with the Russians last few days as an alternative viewpoint to the mainstream stuff brave but bit crazy independent reporter seems he has long term knowledge of Ukraine war reporting and showing what its like from other side too
Crazy sometimes seeing how close they are fighting and how fast other side reacts too in some of his reports been a few close calls

Thought some may find his channel interesting and up to date as an alternative hearing some of the views from those getting passports in Russian controlled areas has been an eyeopener so sad it seems being destroyed by both sides now
“Over the 8 years of the Ukraine War I made more video reports in Donetsk People’s Republic controlled territory than any other western journalist,”

“This is right on, what you could say is the frontline now. Nobody knows exactly where the frontline starts and ends at this point there’s just so much information and minute by minute the lines are changing,” Lancaster said.
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Patrick Lancaster News Today Channel

 
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Weller said:
Not been posting in thread for a while but following still and Ive found Patrick Lancasters videos interesting reporting from the front line with the Russians last few days as an alternative viewpoint to the mainstream stuff brave but bit crazy independent reporter seems he has long term knowledge of Ukraine war reporting and showing what its like from other side too
Crazy sometimes seeing how close they are fighting and how fast other side reacts too in some of his reports been a few close calls

Thought some may find his channel interesting and up to date as an alternative hearing some of the views from those getting passports in Russian controlled areas has been an eyeopener so sad it seems being destroyed by both sides now

Patrick Lancaster News Today Channel

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Be very very sceptical of his stuff. He's a known associate of several wrong uns like Graham Phillips, and has had several obviously dodgy videos featured by Russian state media, notably various faked attacks that Russia used as excuses for their invasion back in February.

I think this comment on reddit nails it...

 
strung out said:
Be very very sceptical of his stuff. He's a known associate of several wrong uns like Graham Phillips, and has had several obviously dodgy videos featured by Russian state media, notably various faked attacks that Russia used as excuses for their invasion back in February.

I think this comment on reddit nails it...

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Yeah I know his background but that doesn't take away for me that the footage he is recording is from the front line or in Donbas

Sad to see the destruction though but most Ive watched are without him making his own opinion about who did what only showing the labels on downed planes or on discarded weapons etc for instance

Regardless of his personal views in the past I like his respectful interviews with local people that have lost family and homes , or footage from what is happening in the passport office etc in Donbas at the moment

Im always very skeptical during a war though Ive lived through a few but personally find his videos a welcome addition anyway to drone footage or dubious videos on twitter , he has some very interesting real footage unless hes built replica buildings and artillery employed hundreds of Russian and Ukranian actors :) it may be the last look I get at some of the beautiful buildings and area too the way its going whoever is or isn't winning or side supported so just thought Id stick link here in case anyone else interested that doesn't know hes back there

Him being independent shouting like and subscribe or raising money through Patreon whilst driving around with a Z on his car whilst in a Russian controlled area interviewing and having a nosey around doesnt sway me one way or the other to be honest its a war in 2022 its a youtube thing and he has to shout because hes on the frontline

Im not sure that really is a neutral observation of him by PanicDry however but yes he is still reporting mainly in Russian controlled areas at the moment still but not always and I like seeing a different perspective from someone actually there he may not be around for much longer given his way of reporting 20 yards away from bombs going off SOME of his reporting does seem anti war and against any destruction or attack on civilians by anyone to me at least now anyway
 
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agricola said:
It isn't forward defence though - even if NATO triples what is there you are still talking only 4000/5000 personnel, which is nowhere near sufficient force to prevent the sort of incursion which would come and potentially it is leaving that unit in a particularly dangerous situation, exposed way out there and with uncertain supply lines. They'd have been much better advised to help the Lithuanian military ramp up its own numbers.

As with the cause of that China spat (and so much of the response to this war) it seems to be more about gesture-making than anything sensible or useful. I really wish they'd stop doing things like it.
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Given Russian performance so far it absolutely is.
 
LDC said:
I've read lots of your stuff Larry, some of it has been useful over the years. But I think you're a living example of why obsessive immersion in that kind of para-political/secret state research as an individual is potentially dangerous and damaging - to you and others. Given some of what you post and say everywhere it's clear that over the years you've become more and more isolated and have lost any anchor in reality. To post wild accusations potentially risking people's lives (Bellingcat has plenty of low profile contributors in parts of the world where being linked to MI6 might endanger their lives) and then to try and justify them using a website like that as some kind of evidence (I mean seriously, how the fuck have you ever got any higher academic qualifications if that's your standard for analysis?) and then when pointed out its links to the far right, conspiracy theorists, etc. you can't hold your hands up and admit you were wrong, you knuckle down and stick with it. No wonder that despite some good work you get treated like a complete crackpot by anyone sensible nowadays. Have a good look at yourself ffs. That's all I say on the subject as it's a derail, so don't bother replying.
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Poor Bellingcat: even NATO's representative on earth, Paul Mason, has stated (in a leaked email published by Gray Zone dated 30/4/22) that quote "Bellingcat get a steady stream of intelligence from Western agencies". Mason has not denied the emails are real, So I don't give flying fuck whether I am derided as a crackpot by non-entities. The truth is out there: now try to derail it. Yes, shoot the messenger, but are these emails from/to Mason fake? I think not. Any genuine grass-roots contributors to Bellingcat should apprise themselves of their spook links, and uncouple, to continue the railway analogy.
 
agricola said:
It isn't forward defence though - even if NATO triples what is there you are still talking only 4000/5000 personnel, which is nowhere near sufficient force to prevent the sort of incursion which would come and potentially it is leaving that unit in a particularly dangerous situation, exposed way out there and with uncertain supply lines. They'd have been much better advised to help the Lithuanian military ramp up its own numbers.

As with the cause of that China spat (and so much of the response to this war) it seems to be more about gesture-making than anything sensible or useful. I really wish they'd stop doing things like it.
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I'm not sure anymore. Given the performance of the Russian military in Ukraine 4000/5000 NATO types on the ground backed up immediately by NATO air forces and sea and air launched cruise missiles would make a very very large speedbump.
 
Dystopiary said:
Yeah really, what else would Zelenskyy say? "Oh shit, I can't stand that lying, duplicitous cunt, who's been toadying up to rich Putin-aligned Russians for years"?
He couldn't really say anything else and not look ungrateful or even jeopardise his "relationship" with the Brit authorities to be fair.
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He didn't have to say anything tbh. As for all this "he's got a guy who is on side and supplying gear" stuff, its actually Parliament that decides these issues and the policy viz a vie arming Ukraine won't/wouldn't change if/when Johnson steps down.
 
A380 said:
I'm not sure anymore. Given the performance of the Russian military in Ukraine 4000/5000 NATO types on the ground backed up immediately by NATO air forces and sea and air launched cruise missiles would make a very very large speedbump.
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there are of course about 100,000 troops lithuania would have immediately too (on mobilisation, 15,000 in the active army plus 100,000 reservists), it's not like the only soldiers in lithuania aren't lithuanian
 
The39thStep said:
He didn't have to say anything tbh. As for all this "he's got a guy who is on side and supplying gear" stuff, its actually Parliament that decides these issues and the policy viz a vie arming Ukraine won't/wouldn't change if/when Johnson steps down.
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Zelensky was apparently asked about it at a conference hosted by the Financial Times. For some reason it seems like he might be preoccupied with some other issue and hasn't been paying the proper amount of attention to British political scandals, tbh.
 
Yossarian said:
Zelensky was apparently asked about it at a conference hosted by the Financial Times. For some reason it seems like he might be preoccupied with some other issue and hasn't been paying the proper amount of attention to British political scandals, tbh.
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Ah good a Zelensky reader .
 
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