Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[dilute micro]

There's an article I saw on twitter (can't find it atm) saying that the US army may be more like the Russian one than they want to think

By US law the military isn't in control until war is declared. Presidential actions dont count.

 

[frogwoman]

Kind of a similar thing with the Russians tho, under Russian law they can't announce general conscription or a state of emergency until war is declared, that's why he keeps saying it's a special operation and not a war.

 

[Pickman's model]

Kind of a similar thing with the Russians tho, under Russian law they can't announce general conscription or a state of emergency until war is declared, that's why he keeps saying it's a special operation and not a war.

like vietnam was a police action and not a war

 

[maomao]

Kind of a similar thing with the Russians tho, under Russian law they can't announce general conscription or a state of emergency until war is declared, that's why he keeps saying it's a special operation and not a war.

Though the yanks conscripted for Vietnam without a formal declaration of war.

 

[maomao]

Jinx

 

[dilute micro]

Kind of a similar thing with the Russians tho, under Russian law they can't announce general conscription or a state of emergency until war is declared, that's why he keeps saying it's a special operation and not a war.

Well this is battlefield decision making which is a little different. For instance when war isn't officially declared, it leaves civilian suits telling drone controllers who they can shoot in real time (Afghanistan).

 

[Yossarian]

Though the yanks conscripted for Vietnam without a formal declaration of war.

Conscription was still in place from WW2 and it technically still exists now - Richard Nixon ended the draft in 1973 but Jimmy Carter brought back the requirement for 18-year-olds to register for the draft in 1980.

 

[dilute micro]

yes, i mention the commander's intent above which offers subordinates latitude in how they achieve their mission. you don't seem to me to be addressing the central point in the quote which is that

that is, questioning not the how or the what, but the why. if you know different i'd love to hear it.

Sometimes after the dust settles its the officers up the chain who are identified as being in the wrong. There are actually loads of stories of individuals and units ignoring orders so they could do something else. And sometimes they win the highest medal for it. Here's some. I know I've heard of many such incidents but when put on the spot I can't remember them in any detail.

Doing your own thing

9 troops who became heroes after they disobeyed orders

Sometimes doing what's right isn't in line with orders. Here are 9 troops who became heroes after they would disobey orders.

www.wearethemighty.com

 

[Pickman's model]

Sometimes after the dust settles its the officers up the chain who are identified as being in the wrong. There are actually loads of stories of individuals and units ignoring orders so they could do something else. And sometimes they win the highest medal for it. Here's some. I know I've heard of many such incidents but when put on the spot I can't remember them in any detail.

Doing your own thing

9 troops who became heroes after they disobeyed orders

Sometimes doing what's right isn't in line with orders. Here are 9 troops who became heroes after they would disobey orders.

www.wearethemighty.com

so success is the main mechanism. death or glory!

 

[frogwoman]

Breakaway region of Georgia to hold referendum on joining Russia

South Ossetia, focal point of Russia-Georgia war of 2008, will decide whether to subsume itself into larger neighbour in July

www.theguardian.com

seems legit

 

[Dogsauce]

Wonder who will be in charge of Russia by then?

 

[krtek a houby]

“We are coming home,” Bibilov said on messaging app Telegram. “The time has come to unite once and for all. “South Ossetia and Russia will be together. This is the start of a big new story.”

Or just a very, very old and depressingly familiar tale.


Bibilov lost his bid for re-election earlier this month. Russia has expressed hope the incoming leader, Alan Gagloev, will preserve “continuity” in ties with Moscow.

"Expressing hope" - sounds chilling and veiled.

 

[petee]

“We are coming home,” Bibilov said on messaging app Telegram. “The time has come to unite once and for all. “South Ossetia and Russia will be together. This is the start of a big new story.”

Or just a very, very old and depressingly familiar tale.


Bibilov lost his bid for re-election earlier this month. Russia has expressed hope the incoming leader, Alan Gagloev, will preserve “continuity” in ties with Moscow.

"Expressing hope" - sounds chilling and veiled.

it says you're still on enforced holiday

 

[krtek a houby]

it says you're still on enforced holiday

Thanks petee - am not sure how to remove that

 

[petee]

Thanks petee - am not sure how to remove that

how's it feel to be back?

 

[krtek a houby]

how's it feel to be back?

Like a war's broken out and urban is the only refuge. For the lucky ones.

Still can't the head around the madness. Will trust on the wise heads here for counsel.

 

[MrCurry]

I wonder how this piece will age? We should revisit later this year to see if it was the optimistic propaganda it appears to be, or a prescient insight into the future.

Ukraine war: Military intelligence chief 'optimistic' of Russian defeat saying war 'will be over by end of year'

Major General Kyrylo Budanov spoke exclusively to Sky News and predicted the war will reach a turning point in August. He correctly predicted when Russia would invade earlier this year.

news.sky.com

Ukraine's head of military intelligence says the war with Russia is going so well, that it will reach a turning point by mid-August and be over by the end of the year.

It is the most precise and optimistic prediction by a senior Ukrainian official so far.

In an exclusive interview with Sky News, Major General Kyrylo Budanov also said a coup to remove Vladimir Putin is already under way in Russia and the Russian leader is seriously ill with cancer.

The general's office is dark and stuffed with the paraphernalia of war and espionage, sandbags stacked on its windows, machine guns piled on the floor, and a spare rifle magazine on his desk used as a paperweight.

He is remarkably young to lead his country's military intelligence agency at just 36 years and speaks with the dry precision of his trade.

He showed little emotion, smiling only once as he said in English: "I'm optimistic."

General Budanov correctly predicted when the Russian invasion would happen when others in his government were publicly sceptical and now says he is confident about predicting its conclusion.

"The breaking point will be in the second part of August.

"Most of the active combat actions will have finished by the end of this year.

"As a result, we will renew Ukrainian power in all our territories that we have lost including Donbas and the Crimea."

Russia's tactics have not changed despite its shift to the east he says, and Russia is suffering huge losses though he would not be drawn on Ukrainian casualties.

He said he was not surprised by Russia's setbacks in the war.

"We know everything about our enemy. We know about their plans almost as they're being made.

"Europe sees Russia as a big threat. They are afraid of its aggression.

"We have been fighting Russia for eight years and we can say that this highly publicised Russian power is a myth.

"It is not as powerful as this. It is a horde of people with weapons."

Russian forces have been pushed back almost to the border around Kharkiv, he says, and a recent attack on forces further south trying to cross the Siverskyy Donets caused considerable damage.

Its aftermath has been caught in dramatic aerial pictures.

"I can confirm that they suffered heavy losses in manpower and armour and I can say that when the artillery strikes happened many of the crews abandoned their equipment," General Budanov said.

General Budanov also told Sky News defeat in Ukraine would lead to the removal of Russia's leader and the country's disintegration.

"It will eventually lead to the change of leadership of the Russian Federation. This process has already been launched and they are moving into that way."

Does that mean a coup is under way?

"Yes," he responded.

"They are moving in this way and it is impossible to stop it."

He claimed Mr Putin is in a "very bad psychological and physical condition and he is very sick".

 

[frogwoman]

Thread by @kamilkazani on Thread Reader App

@kamilkazani: Why Russian army is so weak? When Russia invaded, experts thought it'd win in 24-72 hours. Two weeks later the war's still going. How come? On paper Russian superiority's overwhelming Although Russia p...…

threadreaderapp.com

Dunno if this has already been posted

 

[Dogsauce]

This is quite likely to be a pearoast given the number of views it has, but just in case it isn’t, a documentary produced from the contents of a young Russian officer’s phone that was recovered in Ukraine. A long watch, but shows the background/family/prewar period for the first 14 minutes then in action. Note the lack of situational awareness, general chaos, poorly maintained equipment and casual regard for life. Not particularly grisly or anything.

 

[frogwoman]

The 5.20 from Kyiv: restored suburban rail offers hope as clean-up intensifies

Commuter towns notorious for Russian atrocities, such as Irpin, Bucha and Borodianka, are slowly picking up the pieces

www.theguardian.com

 

[two sheds]

at end of that, woman "reopening the Soviet-themed restaurant she manages with some apprehension. “I don’t know how people will react,” she said. “

 

[Kaka Tim]

Have to say - seeing people return to Kiev riding on buses and trains, visiting shops and enjoying the cafes and parks is not something that seemed remotely on the cards 6 weeks ago. Many brave Ukrainians fought and died to make that happen. And without those weapons from the west their courage would not have been enough, many many more would be dead and Kiev would look like Stalingrad. Kind of shows up how duplicitous and/or naive the "evil NATO is keeping the conflict going" "pacifist" argument is.

 

[Kaka Tim]

I wonder how this piece will age? We should revisit later this year to see if it was the optimistic propaganda it appears to be, or a prescient insight into the future.

Ukraine war: Military intelligence chief 'optimistic' of Russian defeat saying war 'will be over by end of year'

Major General Kyrylo Budanov spoke exclusively to Sky News and predicted the war will reach a turning point in August. He correctly predicted when Russia would invade earlier this year.

news.sky.com

Does sound optimistic but who knows? The Russian military have exceeded everyone's expectations in their utter shitness (except when it comes to their ability to carry out large scale war crimes). "they fucked up at the start but once they get their act together Ukraine is fucked" is the opinion that has aged like milk. I think now its more of a question of how far the russians can be pushed back before it reaches a stalemate and - hopefully - some sort of ceasefire happens.

 

[Cid]

Like a war's broken out and urban is the only refuge. For the lucky ones.

Still can't the head around the madness. Will trust on the wise heads here for counsel.

The what now?

I think we're as lost as anyone... Though tbf there has been quite a bit of useful filtering/commentary etc.

 

[Kaka Tim]

The what now?

I think we're as lost as anyone... Though tbf there has been quite a bit of useful filtering/commentary etc.

I've mentioned before - at times like this Urban is invaluable as a source of reliable information and bullshit busting - as well as providing a safe sane place when the world takes a turn for the terrifying- nowhere better for it on the internet IME.

 

[Dogsauce]

at end of that, woman "reopening the Soviet-themed restaurant she manages with some apprehension. “I don’t know how people will react,” she said. “

One of the concerns I have about all this is the dehumanisation of the enemy, so much talk of Orcs and fuck the Russians. A bit of ‘our war is not with the Russian people’ would be nice occasionally as nothing will be fixed without a recognition of mutual bonds and shared culture where it exists, not least for the sizeable Russian-speaking population of Ukraine who will need some sense of belonging.

Kind of understandable where the hateful sentiments come from given the conduct of the Russian army though. Their culture can absolutely get fucked.

 

[IC3D]

One of the concerns I have about all this is the dehumanisation of the enemy, so much talk of Orcs and fuck the Russians. A bit of ‘our war is not with the Russian people’ would be nice occasionally as nothing will be fixed without a recognition of mutual bonds and shared culture where it exists, not least for the sizeable Russian-speaking population of Ukraine who will need some sense of belonging.

Kind of understandable where the hateful sentiments come from given the conduct of the Russian army though. Their culture can absolutely get fucked.

The orcs analogy came from UKR soldiers describing Russian conscripts from the east looking Mongolian and dark skinned it's dodgy.

 

[dilute micro]

Does sound optimistic but who knows? The Russian military have exceeded everyone's expectations in their utter shitness (except when it comes to their ability to carry out large scale war crimes). "they fucked up at the start but once they get their act together Ukraine is fucked" is the opinion that has aged like milk. I think now its more of a question of how far the russians can be pushed back before it reaches a stalemate and - hopefully - some sort of ceasefire happens.

Ukraine's best weapon is the Russian army. Ukraine seems to me to be a crazed pitbull at the moment. I do think that Zelensky is thinking long-term and I doubt they see allowing any foothold which could cause problems in the future to be acceptable especially with no NATO guarantee. We'll see though. I think the Ukrainians are wiser than the countries currently giving them support. And they must know that the support could just as easily dry up.

 

[The39thStep]

One of the concerns I have about all this is the dehumanisation of the enemy, so much talk of Orcs and fuck the Russians. A bit of ‘our war is not with the Russian people’ would be nice occasionally as nothing will be fixed without a recognition of mutual bonds and shared culture where it exists, not least for the sizeable Russian-speaking population of Ukraine who will need some sense of belonging.

Kind of understandable where the hateful sentiments come from given the conduct of the Russian army though. Their culture can absolutely get fucked.

Agree. Others will know better but I get the sense that this dehumanisation of the Russian speaking population began some time ago

 

[frogwoman]

One of the concerns I have about all this is the dehumanisation of the enemy, so much talk of Orcs and fuck the Russians. A bit of ‘our war is not with the Russian people’ would be nice occasionally as nothing will be fixed without a recognition of mutual bonds and shared culture where it exists, not least for the sizeable Russian-speaking population of Ukraine who will need some sense of belonging.

Kind of understandable where the hateful sentiments come from given the conduct of the Russian army though. Their culture can absolutely get fucked.

I agree, although I don’t think it's Russian speaking that is the issue, it's Russian speaking cities like Mariupol that are getting absolutely pounded. A lot of Ukrainian soldiers speak Russian, even in regiments like Azov and Dnipro which have a reputation for nationalism. Even in western Ukraine most people understand Russian.

I could be wrong but imo it's going to be Russian citizens from Russia who have built lives in Ukraine who are treated with suspicion or worse, and Chechens and others from 'the republics', as well as people like Syrian refugees who have settled in Ukraine. I could definitely see their lives being affected negatively after the war.