Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[Pickman's model]

The armed forces of any nation are capable of absolute incompetent fuckery at any time but from my experiences the US (and British) forces are far better trained, equipped and led than the Russians appear to be.

yet this better training, equipping and leading hasn't led to much more success in the past 20 years than the russians are enjoying in ukraine. or are you holding up iraq and afghanistan as manifest successes?

 

[cupid_stunt]

Strangely all armies are top down organisations which pass orders down and I don't suppose there are many mechanisms in either the British or American armies by which the basis of orders can be questioned by a junior without fear of repercussions. That's how Churchillian disasters like Gallipoli, Arnhem and Dieppe occur. I don't think it's something unique to the Russian army, this hierarchy you find so baffling

It's more the 'very top down command style' of the Russia army compared to the more flexible western military style, kebabking has made some interesting posts on this topic.

Well, indeed.

It's a compliment though, and rather one that has a deep understanding of Warfare behind it - that war is chaotic, that if 20% of your plan/assumptions bare even a passing resemblance to what actually happens you're doing well, that command, control and communications are sometime things and that anyone who thinks they will be able to successfully run a war with a plan, a map, and a radio is going to be bitterly disappointed.

That one of the strengths of western military thought is the Strategic Corporal/Major/Lt Col - the acceptance that the plan, and the ability to manage the plan in action, are going to turn to dog-shit on day one, and that what will be left is a force that knows it's commanders intent, and knows how they roughly want it to go - and that whenever there's a problem/obstacle/breakdown, your people at whatever level the problem occurs at have the training, the confidence and the moral authority to improvise, to adapt, to change the plan and to crack on in pursuit of the objective.

One of the things that cripples the Russian Army is a very top down command style - and when that chain of command gets messed with, whether by killing the commander or fucking up communication, they simply stop. They haven't been told the plan, and they don't have a leadership culture where, when you stop being told what to do, you look at what's happening and make decisions based on your commanders intent, and everyone follows what the 'new' leader says.

It's a system that has advantages - it's really cheap compared to the western system of training and education, you can put 4 or 5 'automons' in the field for the price of one well trained Gunner - but when it meets a system that's designed to cut off and kill the command chain, it grinds to a halt. It can still overwhelm through mass, but it doesn't half make a meal of it.

 

[frogwoman]

loads of people with very dodgy political views in the us armed forces, not just in one regiment either Pentagon report reveals inroads white supremacists have made in military

Verso

People with dodgy views attracted to the army, lol who would have thought

 

[Pickman's model]

It's more the 'very top down command style' of the Russia army compared to the more flexible western military style, kebabking has made some interesting posts on this topic.

it's kind of you to come to kaka tim's aid. from my understanding of the destruction of the russian battalion trying to cross the river, they were caught mid-crossing with the consequent slaughter you can imagine. not sure that british forces (or the vaunted americans, for that matter) would have fared much better in the same circumstances

 

[maomao]

it's kind of you to come to kaka tim's aid. from my understanding of the destruction of the russian battalion trying to cross the river, they were caught mid-crossing with the consequent slaughter you can imagine. not sure that british forces (or the vaunted americans, for that matter) would have fared much better in the same circumstances

Your understanding is lacking. They crossed several times on subsequent dates in the same place having been slaughtered there already.

 

[Pickman's model]

Your understanding is lacking. They crossed several times on subsequent dates in the same place having been slaughtered there already.

at bilohorivka on may 8 and subsequent dates?

 

[two sheds]

are they attacking or retreating when they're crossing?

 

[Pickman's model]

are they attacking or retreating when they're crossing?

depends if they're retreating from zelensky or putin i suppose

 

[maomao]

at bilohorivka on may 8 and subsequent dates?

Yes.

 

[Pickman's model]

Yes.

this would be what i suppose you're referring to Russia makes second failed attempt at crossing Ukrainian river which seems to have been an attempted rescue mission

 

[maomao]

this would be what i suppose you're referring to Russia makes second failed attempt at crossing Ukrainian river which seems to have been an attempted rescue mission

The Mail? Honestly?

 

[Pickman's model]

The Mail? Honestly?

perhaps you could give me a list of sources you're prepared to respond to being as you've already made it clear the mirror, express, guardian (and now mail) are for you beyond the pale.

 

[xenon]

Rand Paul, one of the original Tea Party senators single handedly holds up Ukraine aid package Senator Rand Paul single-handedly holds up $40bn US aid for Ukraine

Dam I can't recall the exact details or look it up as is an audiobook but he's mentioned briefly in Putin's People. When dodgy Russian money via various conduets started finding it's way into US politics.

 

[A380]

yet this better training, equipping and leading hasn't led to much more success in the past 20 years than the russians are enjoying in ukraine. or are you holding up iraq and afghanistan as manifest successes?

Tactical operational and strategic innit*.

Could argue the initial phases of GW2 were excellent examples of competence at the lower two levels. Perhaps too effective in effectively completely destroying the Iraqi security infrastructure. As to strategic competence? Well what were the actual war aims as opposed to the stated ones? Certainly there is no systematic threat to Western capital coming from Iraq or Syria at the moment and Iran’s going to be very busy capitalising on their regional gains thanks to us for a good few years yet….

* Although truly competent organisations have these labels in a different- proper - order.

 

[The39thStep]

perhaps you could give me a list of sources you're prepared to respond to being as you've already made it clear the mirror, express, guardian (and now mail) are for you beyond the pale.

Peden, who goes by "Intel Crab" on Twitter, scours the internet for satellite images, flight trajectories and TikTok videos. He then shares his findings with his 255,000 followers, posting analyses of troop movements or the exact coordinates of a missile attack.

 

[Pickman's model]

Tactical operational and strategic innit*.

Coukd argue the initial phases of GW2 were excellent examples of competence at the lower two levels. Perhaps too effective in effectively completely destroying the Iraqi security infrastructure. As to strategic competence? Well what were the actual war aims as opposed to the stated ones? Certainly there is no systematic threat to Western capital coming from Iraq or Syria at the moment and Iran’s going to be very busy capitalising on their regional gains thanks to us for a good few years yet….

* Although truly competent organisations have these labels in a different- proper - order.

the initial phases of gw2 should have been given the amount of planning into that that had happened. it was sadly the next dozen years or so which weren't that great

View attachment 322436

bears at least a passing resemblence to a young RaverDrew

 

[maomao]

perhaps you could give me a list of sources you're prepared to respond to being as you've already made it clear the mirror, express, guardian (and now mail) are for you beyond the pale.

They're not necessarily beyond the pale in all cases (well maybe The Express) but jumbled and incomplete versions of press releases aren't their forté. It's not like they don't give their sources. The Mail article contradicts its own rescue mission line if you read it to the end.

 

[Kaka Tim]

yet this better training, equipping and leading hasn't led to much more success in the past 20 years than the russians are enjoying in ukraine. or are you holding up iraq and afghanistan as manifest successes?

chalk and cheese though? The conventional phase of the Iraq War was very successful from the US point of view - but against a very weak unmotivated opposition. Anti-Insurgency warfare - like in Afghanistan and Iraq post invasion - is completely different and is all about intelligence gathering and policing rather than tanks and bombers. The obvious contrast with the Russian military is the performance of the Ukrainian military - who seem very fleet of foot and highly responsive to battlefield dynamics.
The whole "topdown" thing is not just about the army being a hierarchy - its that there is no room for smaller units to act on their own initiative or to feedback info to their superiors. So a message on the ground saying "we are walking into a massive artillery barrage - request pause and air/artillery support" has to go up though umpteen levels of command before its responded to (it at all) rather them being able to do it without being specifcally ordered to and to directly request fire support. So they just keep being told by their superiors to carry out the existing orders - no matter how senseless - because the whole culture is about just carrying out instructions until told to do otherwise.
Its exactly what happened in WW1 and its just jaw dropping to see a supposedly modern army repeatedly fuck up on such a scale in the 21st centaury when high level instant communications is hugely advanced and an essential part of warfare - especially if you are carrying out a large scale operation.

ETA - you mentioned Arnhem as a comparable fuck up . But actually is kind of shows the opposite - the problem with Market Garden was that the plan was fucked up from the start (fatally underestimating German strength and far too many elements had to succeed for the plan the work) but despite that units on the ground consistently managed to successfully improvise (the boat crossing of the river at Nijmegen to seize the bridge being a good example) to secure their objectives in exactly the way that the Russians don't seem able to despite 80 years worth of advances in communications technology.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

People with dodgy views attracted to the army, lol who would have thought

Quite a few violent types gravitate towards the army an'all.

 

[Pickman's model]

chalk and cheese though? The conventional phase of the Iraq War was very successful from the US point of view - but against a very weak unmotivated opposition. Anti-Insurgency warfare - like in Afghanistan and Iraq post invasion - is completely different and is all about intelligence gathering and policing rather than tanks and bombers. The obvious contrast with the Russian military is the performance of the Ukrainian military - who seem very fleet of foot and highly responsive to battlefield dynamics.
The whole "topdown" thing is not just about the army being a hierarchy - its that there is no room for smaller units to act on their own initiative or to feedback info to their superiors. So a message on the ground saying "we are walking into a massive artillery barrage - request pause and air/artillery support" has to go up though umpteen levels of command before its responded to (it at all) rather them being able to do it without being specifcally ordered to and to directly request fire support. So they just keep being told by their superiors to carry out the existing orders - no matter how senseless - because the whole culture is about just carrying out instructions until told to do otherwise.
Its exactly what happened in WW1 and its just jaw dropping to see a supposedly modern army repeatedly fuck up on such a scale in the 21st centaury when high level instant communications is hugely advanced and an essential part of warfare - especially if you are carrying out a large scale operation.

so the first 42 days in a war which lasted something in the region of 3000 days went well.

you've not imo got to grips with counter-insurgency if you think that a well-informed dixon of dock green would counter the machinations of the likes of the taliban etc.

there is no room for smaller units to act on their own initiative in any army, certainly not without repercussions. hence kebabking's flagging of the commander's intent, which offers them some latitude: but not the licence you suggest.

it's not chalk and cheese, ukraine and iraq or afghanistan. just as the americans fucked things up by alienating much of the populations of both countries the russians have too - if they'd behaved decently to ukrainians i suspect they'd be having a different time of it now, just as if the americans hadn't acted so bloodily towards iraqis their own ride might have been easier.

 

[maomao]

if they'd behaved decently to ukrainians i suspect they'd be having a different time of it now,

It's jolly difficult to invade a country and behave decently to the people who live there.

 

[Pickman's model]

It's jolly difficult to invade a country and behave decently to the people who live there.

i don't know that i agree with you. if you're liberating a country it surely behoves you to not go round killing people and nicking their bluetooth headphones, for example, as after all they're your deluded friends (according to the russian justification for the smo). i don't know it's difficult not to massacre people. surely the behaviour of troops can be managed by either instruction prior to the start of the operation or by summary justice afterwards: and quite possibly both. the behaviour of the russians in ukraine seems to have been at the least condoned by if not actively encouraged by their military authorities. if the converse had been true and infractions punished by the russian provosts or whatnot i wonder what the situation would be in ukraine now.

 

[frogwoman]

Quite a few violent types gravitate towards the army an'all.

Noooo! Violence in the army? Really???

 

[A380]

... (well maybe The Express) ...

Where else are we going to hear the truth about Saint Lady Di?

 

[maomao]

i don't know that i agree with you. if you're liberating a country it surely behoves you to not go round killing people and nicking their bluetooth headphones, for example, as after all they're your deluded friends (according to the russian justification for the smo). i don't know it's difficult not to massacre people. surely the behaviour of troops can be managed by either instruction prior to the start of the operation or by summary justice afterwards: and quite possibly both. the behaviour of the russians in ukraine seems to have been at the least condoned by if not actively encouraged by their military authorities. if the converse had been true and infractions punished by the russian provosts or whatnot i wonder what the situation would be in ukraine now.

Well I did say jolly difficult not impossible. I think you're right that they would be doing better if they hadn't gone on a murder and rape spree but I think the Ukrainian government, in particular Zelensky, managing to rally public opinion in Ukraine and the west against the invasion had a bigger effect. Even in the most carefully fought wars there's plenty to get upset about.

Putin has been telling Scholz today about all the measures the Russians are taking to protect the civilian population. It's laughable in a way because we know it's not happening but I do think he might believe he has a better, more well-behaved army than he does and all the raping and looting is just institutional.

 

[maomao]

Where else are we going to hear the truth about Saint Lady Di?

Well, even the Mail is good for Tory gossip (and aristo scandals) but I'm not convinced the Express is good for anything at all.

 

[Pickman's model]

Well, even the Mail is good for Tory gossip (and aristo scandals) but I'm not convinced the Express is good for anything at all.

i wouldn't line a litter tray with it

 

[A380]

Well, even the Mail is good for Tory gossip (and aristo scandals) but I'm not convinced the Express is good for anything at all.

Toilet training an incontinent dachshund?

 

[dilute micro]

Strangely all armies are top down organisations which pass orders down and I don't suppose there are many mechanisms in either the British or American armies by which the basis of orders can be questioned by a junior without fear of repercussions. That's how Churchillian disasters like Gallipoli, Arnhem and Dieppe occur. I don't think it's something unique to the Russian army, this hierarchy you find so baffling

The point is what order is given. The same objective can be done by: "cross this bridge to get to the other side", or "get to the other side". In western armies the actual way it's done is left to those further down the totem pole. The difference here is micromanagement from the top.

 

[Pickman's model]

The point is what order is given. The same objective can be done by: "cross this bridge to get to the other side", or "get to the other side". In western armies the actual way it's done is left to those further down the totem pole. The difference here is micromanagement from the top.

yes, i mention the commander's intent above which offers subordinates latitude in how they achieve their mission. you don't seem to me to be addressing the central point in the quote which is that

I don't suppose there are many mechanisms in either the British or American armies by which the basis of orders can be questioned by a junior without fear of repercussions.

that is, questioning not the how or the what, but the why. if you know different i'd love to hear it.