Raheem
Well-Known Member
I like the Pope. The Pope's a fucking dope.The anti-imperialist pope
Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24
- Thread starter kebabking
- Start date
bluescreen
tofu eating wokerati
Dmitri Alperovitch reckons he won't - there's nothing to be gained by full mobilisation and much public support to be lost. A long thread here:
Maybe this should go on the speculation thread.
TopCat
Putin fanboy
This is liz Truss level wishful thinking
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
How so?
So far Russian military capability has been consistently and comprehensively overestimated by just about all the analysis I've seen since the start of the war. Based on that they not about to unleash the full force of their army - its already been unleashed and its failed. Ukraine's manpower, capability and weaponry is steadily improving and all the indications are that Russia's is going in the opposite direction - not really a surprise thanks to sanctions for one and steadily increasing levels of aid for the other. Also chuck in Ukraine's noticeable intelligence advantage (thanks to NATO/US) and superior morale, equipment, organisation, tactics and level of training - and the rank incompetence of the Russian military command.
If that continues, than at some point Ukraine will be militarily stronger in the region than Russia and will be able to push back on a greater scale than what we have already seen. Them being in a position to threaten Russian control of Crimea is by no means a certainty - but id say it's well within the realms of reasonable possibility.
Two weeks into the war those speculating that Russia might fail in capturing Kiev were accused of similar "wishful thinking" - yet here we are.
emanymton
A cat politely sat on the flaming gardener.
The problem with that is that it seems to assume that Putin is looking for an out, I don't see any evidance that he is.
steeplejack
trapped lbw for a duck
Dmitry did predict the invasion when many commentators were dismissing it as nonsense / a tactical feint to extract concessions, so there is that. But yes I don't see any evidence of de-escalation / desire to stop. Cruise missiles on Kyiv during the visit of the UN president were a pretty clear signal.
bluescreen
tofu eating wokerati
Yeah, we should really take this to the speculation thread. Alperovitch reckons Putin is concerned about his own hold on power and the danger of a coup, which could increase with increased exposure to criticism through conscription. So not so much looking for an out.
David Clapson
Well-Known Member
Army experts: will the new artillery allow Ukraine to push the Russians back, or will there just be a stalemate? I was hoping that Ukraine would be able to do better counter-battery fire than Russia, with the latest counter-battery radar and guided shells and whatnot, and the Russian artillery would be wiped out.
Dystopiary
putting up a hook to hang my hopes upon
Does anyone know if any more people got out of the steel works at Azovstal? Russian fighters are known to have stormed the plant. There've also been reports of explosions there.
agricola
a genuine importer of owls
As he points out though that wouldn't be an out, it would be them achieving a version of the goals they have publicly cited for this that they could sell.
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
I briefly caught the news at half time in the CL and there was something about a 3 day ceasefire at Azovstal to allow civilians to go. Might have been lost on translation though
Dystopiary
putting up a hook to hang my hopes upon
It was promised earlier, but that's happened before and then people got shot at, so difficult to know.
petee
no gods, no malarkey
i'm not seeing this stuff about bergoglio being ambivalent or whatever. he's thinking within a certain mindframe and if he doesn't encourage ukranians to off a bunch of russkies, well, he wouldn't, would he.
for all it's worth.
www.cnn.com
Pope Francis warned the leader of the Russian Orthodox Church, Patriarch Kirill, not to become "Putin's altar boy," he said in an interview this week.
In his strongest words to date against the pro-war Patriarch, Francis also slammed Kirill for endorsing Russia's stated reasons for invading Ukraine.
"I spoke to him for 40 minutes via Zoom," the Pope told Italian daily Corriere della Sera in an interview published Tuesday. "The first 20 minutes he read to me, with a card in hand, all the justifications for war."
"I listened and told him: I don't understand anything about this," said the Pope. "Brother, we are not clerics of state, we cannot use the language of politics but that of Jesus."
"The Patriarch cannot transform himself into Putin's altar boy," the Pope said.
other catholics use less diplomatic language.
By way of background, you should know that Kirill is an absolute whored-out tool of the Putin regime. He is a former KGB agent worth a billion or so, mostly from worshipping his real god–Mammon–and profiting from alcohol and tobacco like the rest of the corrupt oligarchs in Putin’s circle. Think of his job as perfuming an endless stream of thirty pieces of blood-stained silver with incense and you will get his true function in the regime. He is a vile, dirty skank for nihilist power with snappy ecclesial attire. The rest of the Orthodox world sees him for the pig he is, but when you gotta deal with the Church in Russia, he’s the top dog and so there you are.
Among his many outrages as a servant of the devil, Kirill recently blessed an icon of the Theotokos and blasphemed the living God and his Mother by sending her off to go bless Putin’s entire act of mass murder in Ukraine. That there is some weapons-grade satanic mockery of the Prince of Peace.
the article goes on to discuss how the ukraine invasion doesn't meet just-war criteria, in case anyone cares.
markpshea.com
for all it's worth.
Pope Francis warns pro-war Russian patriarch not to be 'Putin's altar boy' | CNN
Pope Francis warned the leader of the Russian Orthodox Church, Patriarch Kirill, not to become "Putin's altar boy," he said in an interview this week.
Pope Francis warned the leader of the Russian Orthodox Church, Patriarch Kirill, not to become "Putin's altar boy," he said in an interview this week.
In his strongest words to date against the pro-war Patriarch, Francis also slammed Kirill for endorsing Russia's stated reasons for invading Ukraine.
"I spoke to him for 40 minutes via Zoom," the Pope told Italian daily Corriere della Sera in an interview published Tuesday. "The first 20 minutes he read to me, with a card in hand, all the justifications for war."
"I listened and told him: I don't understand anything about this," said the Pope. "Brother, we are not clerics of state, we cannot use the language of politics but that of Jesus."
"The Patriarch cannot transform himself into Putin's altar boy," the Pope said.
other catholics use less diplomatic language.
By way of background, you should know that Kirill is an absolute whored-out tool of the Putin regime. He is a former KGB agent worth a billion or so, mostly from worshipping his real god–Mammon–and profiting from alcohol and tobacco like the rest of the corrupt oligarchs in Putin’s circle. Think of his job as perfuming an endless stream of thirty pieces of blood-stained silver with incense and you will get his true function in the regime. He is a vile, dirty skank for nihilist power with snappy ecclesial attire. The rest of the Orthodox world sees him for the pig he is, but when you gotta deal with the Church in Russia, he’s the top dog and so there you are.
Among his many outrages as a servant of the devil, Kirill recently blessed an icon of the Theotokos and blasphemed the living God and his Mother by sending her off to go bless Putin’s entire act of mass murder in Ukraine. That there is some weapons-grade satanic mockery of the Prince of Peace.
the article goes on to discuss how the ukraine invasion doesn't meet just-war criteria, in case anyone cares.
A Bit on Just War and Pope Francis - Stumbling Toward Heaven
So the other day, the Pope had a chat with the Orthodox Patriarch of Moscow, Kirill. By way of background, you should know that Kirill is an absolute whored-out tool of the Putin regime. He is a former KGB agent worth a billion or so, mostly from worshipping his real god–Mammon–and profiting...
markpshea.com
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emanymton
A cat politely sat on the flaming gardener.
Which assumes they want an out, that they want and end to the war. Have we any evidence of that?
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
There seems to be no point in trying to predict Putin's actions any more. The man's clearly gone off the fucking deep end and is not making decisions based on good information or coherent objectives.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
We've been told several times the Russians are about to run out of men and materiel and yet here we are. There's a lot we're not being told about what's going on, and there's stuff we're being told that plainly can't be true or the entire thing would be over.
Kevbad the Bad
Amiable Bowel Syndrome
Or anything as abstract as decency or humanity.
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
Wiped out is probably going a bit far, but the range and precision of the equipment (155mm tube artillery with both guided and purely ballistic munitions, and GMLRS GPS guided rockets with rages of between 70km and 130km) - aided by Ukraine's mastery of UAV ISR - will start to really grind away at Russia's artillery, forward based helicopters, HQ formations, Logistics nodes and MSR's.
To a large extent doing what they've been doing, just deeper, and more effectively.
It would take a prolonged campaign to effectively paralyse the Russians, though the results would not be linear - the juicy targets with the big results will be Logistics and HQ's, after that it's a monotonous grind to degrade and disable their field units.
rekil
to menny cranks
spring-peeper
Well-Known Member
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
have we? There is speculation about how long before that happens - but I don't recall anyone saying its definitely about to happen at any point. Think i read somebody speculating that they would start running into serious shortages by the end of may - presumably by looking at their rate of losses and extrapolating. fuck knows. Im saying - with plenty of caveats - that a comprehensive Russian defeat which pushes them back out of Ukraine and leaves Crimea vulnerable is within a range of reasonable possibility - not that is likely. huge of amount of "fuck knows?" all around. I do think its more likely than Russia capturing Odessa or securing anything like a "victory" though.
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
anyway - thought this article was interesting - about the US escalating its involvement and comparing it with Roosevelts lend lease. The scale of US military support for Ukraine is eye popping and so is they rhetoric accompanying it. They are loudly advertising their actions including how they share intel with Ukraine. Definitely quite queasy making.
Is escalation in Ukraine part of the US strategy? | Adam Tooze
Is escalation in Ukraine part of the US strategy? | Adam Tooze
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
Judging from half decent Twitter sources, Ukraine is pushing back quite a lot in the North-East, out from Kharkiv. A recent strike on a command HQ near Izium means the Russians are quite disorganised and stalled in this area so Ukraine is gaining from this. I can see this area being freed up quite a bit more, perhaps some Russian retreat like Kyiv. But then this area may not be their priority, the victory push is to gain control of the Donbas and Kherson so these can be annexed, maybe a goal for May 9th. They’re making slow and costly progress in these areas, but it is progress all the same.
(Just thinking - should there be a thread for just ‘progress of war’ stuff? Like just what is happening on the ground)
(Just thinking - should there be a thread for just ‘progress of war’ stuff? Like just what is happening on the ground)
I think it should stay in here. Given that we are only getting a partial picture of what’s happening on the ground. Separating it out into another thread with detract from trying to follow proceedings. I mean they’re posts hear about what equipment is being supplied discussions thereof. These obviously relate to what can actually be done on the ground. So it’s easier to have that stuff in the one thread.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
But, the Ukrainians are pushing them back in the Kherson area.
Not looking good at the Azovstal steel works, but that was expected to fall weeks ago, not not very surprising.
LINK
Artaxerxes
Look out, he's got a gnu!
It’s fascinating to try reconcile his behaviour with the rampant gangster capitalism and cronyism and buying political favour of the 2010s. The west has been happy to turn a blind eye on any of his behaviour as long as the cash and gas flowed.
I keep looking for where the money is in this for him or his cohorts but I’m not finding it.
maomao
普費斯
This should be the thread for that. Otherwise what is the thread for?
maomao
普費斯
It's one thing giving unconditional support to Ukraine in defending against an invasion. It would be another to deny that Western nations are in this to further their own agendas. Parts of the US establishment have seen a showdown with Russia as inevitable and even necessary for a long time.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Your memory doesn't seem reliable to me. See eg from march 22 Russian invaders have three days of supplies left, says Ukraine military
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