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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

That Visegrad24 account is weird tbh. I'd be careful posting stuff from them, a few things they have put up turned out not to be accurate iirc

I followed them for a while - until they blocked me for pointing the following out to their followers:

They are part of a disinformation campaign (likely russian, but who knows) Before the war they were constantly posting central European culture war shit, right wing propaganda, pro Orbán/PiS stuff, anti abortion, anti refugee, etc etc.

No one knows who they are, who their editors are, where they are based, and the tag line in their bio is stolen from @notesfrompoland Twitter account (which really is an independent organisation).

I wouldn't trust them at all.
 
Visegrad24 is a cover for far-right populists associated with Hungary, Poland, the recently deposed Slovenian government of Orban fanboy Janez Janša, and the Slovaks (who got rid of their far right populists a while back IIRC).

Pro-Trump, populist, ferociously anti-immigrant, anti-LGBT, "pro-family", "Pro-life".

They come with a very big health warning. A toxic skitter of far-right populist diahorrea.
 
Russia pull out of ISS. Or forced out due to sanctions.


This would appear to be bollocks, and posturing as the Roscosmos gaulietier positions himself as "working towards the Führer"

 
Couple of interesting new things that I saw today.

The Ukrainians claim that the Hungarians agreed to take some Ukrainian territory, in the event that the country was conquered by Russia. Slightly odd one this - it makes lots of sense with what one knows about Orban and Fidesz who are Greater Hungary irredentists anyway. But then, surely it would result in Hungary being kicked out of the EU more or less overnight....?

Then the other thing was the Russian foreign ministry responding to criticism from the Israelis by arguing that much anti-semitism comes from Jews anyway so it makes perfect sense that Zelensky is both a Jew and a Nazi. It feels a little desperate really as well as something so bonkers that it might have come from the top - do we know if Putin is an antisemite?





It's worthwhile trying to track down a translation of how the Russians try and argue their case on the "jews are nazis really" angle. I found one earlier but couldn't seem to rediscover it more recently. It reads like an "edgy" undergrad dissertation and it largely relies on well known stuff about Jewish "collaboration" with the Nazis - Arendt covered it in detail in Eichmann in Jerusalem.
 
They've accused Israel of siding with neo-nazis too now <e2a: as I see diamond mentioned> (which I suppose logically follows, given definition of Ukraine govt, but still)... Haaretz:


The Russian ministry said in a statement that Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid's comments were "anti-historical" and "explaining to a large extent why the current Israeli government supports the neo-Nazi regime in Kyiv".

Also this from Haaretz which provides a bit more context on how the various interests involved are playing out... Russia moving more toward Iran etc. Have only had a chance to skim read so far, but seems worth a look:

 
On Sunday, the Freedom of Russia Legion (anti-Putin Russians) claimed to have arrived in Donbass! :eek:

"We thank the armed forces of [@ Ukraine] for putting trust in us and we promise to uphold it as we go into battle"





Don't know much about them except they want to overthrow the Putin regime and are fighting with the Ukrainian military, and they use the white-blue-white flag.
 
The Russian Foreign Ministry's English translation of their statement lecturing the Israeli government about antisemitism in Ukraine is here on telegra.ph, telegrams rather minimal blogging platform. (The MFA still have a twitter account which was used to link to it).

Regarding antisemitism

It's quite something.

What makes this tragic, from a historical perspective, is that during World War II some Jews were forced to take part in perpetrating crimes, while Vladimir Zelensky has been speculating on his roots in all consciousness and quite voluntarily. He has been using his origins as a cover-up for himself, as well as for the genuine neo-Nazis who descend, both spiritually and by blood, from the executioners of their people.

The president’s Jewish roots cannot serve as a safeguard against the neo-Nazi rampage in the country. By the way, Ukraine is not alone in this situation. President of Latvia Egils Levits has Jewish roots as well, and has been equally ‘successful’ in covering up efforts to white-wash the Waffen-SS in his country.
 

"When approached by City A.M., no one at the Kremlin was available to comment."
Well, quite.
City AM didn't seem to have anyone on hand apart from Google Translate, either. And the article gives a fair impression of being random snips from something more coherent. Is it one of those papers largely produced by AI?
 
I was thinking last night, it's been about four weeks since the Russian withdrawal from the north, about two weeks since those troops and resources arrived in the east/south, and their latest offensive began, yet they have hardly taken any more territory, and in parts the Ukrainians are actually pushing them back.

It just seems to have stalled again for the Russians, meanwhile more weapons are arriving from the west, including many more serious and heavy weapons, so once again it seems to have gone from Ukrainians are going to struggle, to it's looking like the Russians are in trouble again.

Woke up this morning, to see this from the Institute for the Study of War -

A significant Ukrainian counteroffensive pushed Russian forces roughly 40 km east of Kharkiv City. The counteroffensive could set conditions for a broader operation to drive the Russians from most of their positions around the city. LINK

2h.jpg
 
I was thinking last night, it's been about four weeks since the Russian withdrawal from the north, about two weeks since those troops and resources arrived in the east/south, and their latest offensive began, yet they have hardly taken any more territory, and in parts the Ukrainians are actually pushing them back.

It just seems to have stalled again for the Russians, meanwhile more weapons are arriving from the west, including many more serious and heavy weapons, so once again it seems to have gone from Ukrainians are going to struggle, to it's looking like the Russians are in trouble again.

Woke up this morning, to see this from the Institute for the Study of War -



View attachment 321103

this is the latest map, also from that IoW

I dont know how much of an advance that is but they seem to have got the east and coastline landbridge which people were expecting would be the goal. Next question is will they move on to Odessa and capture the whole coastline. They are edging that way and there have been missiles fired at Odessa the last couple of days.

_124397238_ukraine_russian_control_areas_map_2x640-nc.png
 
this is the latest map, also from that IoW

I dont know how much of an advance that is but they seem to have got the east and coastline landbridge which people were expecting would be the goal. Next question is will they move on to Odessa and capture the whole coastline. They are edging that way and there have been missiles fired at Odessa the last couple of days.

But, it's been basically like that for weeks now, and missiles fired at Odessa are not new, that's been happening since March.
 
"When approached by City A.M., no one at the Kremlin was available to comment."
Well, quite.
City AM didn't seem to have anyone on hand apart from Google Translate, either. And the article gives a fair impression of being random snips from something more coherent. Is it one of those papers largely produced by AI?
It's a freebie paper distributed at stations etc in London so...
 
this is the latest map, also from that IoW

I dont know how much of an advance that is but they seem to have got the east and coastline landbridge which people were expecting would be the goal. Next question is will they move on to Odessa and capture the whole coastline. They are edging that way and there have been missiles fired at Odessa the last couple of days.

_124397238_ukraine_russian_control_areas_map_2x640-nc.png
They're not really edging that way - Ukraine have been making (very small) advances back towards Kherson recently.
 
They're not really edging that way - Ukraine have been making (very small) advances back towards Kherson recently.
It is possible this is near enough Mission Accomplished by the Russian Army. Maybe claim a bit more up to the Donbas border.... Maybe move on further west along the coast...
But basically they've made significant gains that match preinvasion predictions.

It may also be the reassigning of forces is as much about holding the territory...

Etc
 
It is possible this is near enough Mission Accomplished by the Russian Army. Maybe claim a bit more up to the Donbas border.... Maybe move on further west along the coast...
But basically they've made significant gains that match preinvasion predictions.

It may also be the reassigning of forces is as much about holding the territory...

Etc
I think the longer it goes on the relative military strength will increasingly favour Ukraine. Russia's "big push" in the east has made only incremental progress and likely cost them dearly in men and equipment (and general's). Ukraine can make up its losses much easier and is getting increasing amounts of hi quality kit from the west - including more heavy weapons. Russian forces may soon get to the point where they are no longer capable of carrying out effective offensive operations. Ukraine's counter attacks could increase in number and size to the point where Russia may have to withdraw from large areas of the country.
I think/hope that the issue now is the scale of Russia's defeat - ranging from a stalemate where they can no longer attack but Ukraine isn't strong enough to push them back any further - leading to a ceasefire and "frozen conflict" - to a comprehensive collapse (the latter could be very dangerous as Putin might consider going for nukes if Ukraine starts pushing into Crimea).
 
For people living in those currently russian-controlled border regions, there can't be many attractive ways out of this - either they end up part of russia, contested or otherwise, or, if they are reclaimed by Ukraine then presumably that means seeing the fighting front retreat back across those territories, causing destruction in the process.
 
Ukraine will not accept a ceasefire that in any way implies the concession of territory, they will keep going -- as long as, that is, that the arms continue to arrive
 
If Ukraine wants it the west will keep backing them untill they get Russia all the way out at least to the 2014 situation, but it will take a long time and be paid for with Ukrainian lives
 
If Ukraine wants it the west will keep backing them untill they get Russia all the way out at least to the 2014 situation, but it will take a long time and be paid for with Ukrainian lives
Could be protracted, but if Russia military continues to degrade at the present rate, it might be over in months.
Nobody predicted Russia would fail to this extent and they may not be able to keep their up this level of warfare.
Read several predictions that putin will order a full mobilisation on the May victory day thing.
Anyone any idea what this might mean in practice?
Not least on the Russian people's support for the war.
 
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