Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24
- Thread starter kebabking
- Start date
emanymton
A cat politely sat on the flaming gardener.
Me neither.
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
Using any kind of nuke potentially puts them in the bad guy category with the likes of China, India etc. who may have tolerated his little incursion thus far, but threatening the global stability that they all feather their nests with might be a step too much. Of course, they’d blame Ukraine for a false flag or something because they’re absolutely shameless liars.
maomao
普費斯
My (completely speculative) opinion is that the Chinese have asked them to tone down the nuclear stuff. in the first month or so we'd get a reminder of Russian nuclear weapons once a week or so but now it's all 'unpredictable consequences' and being seen with his nuclear football. Whether that affects their willlingness to actually use the things I don't know.
LDC
On est tous des pangolins
There's some clips from Russian State media saying the 'special operation' has now been completed and it's time to leave rather than get bogged down/stuck/etc. Wonder if there's some shift going on? (Also some batshit stuff about biolabs still, as well as some opinions about how it's a war against all of NATO now.)
If you haven't watched any new clips from Russian TV it's worth it, quite eye opening levels of lunacy.
If you haven't watched any new clips from Russian TV it's worth it, quite eye opening levels of lunacy.
LDC
On est tous des pangolins
Just reporting what I've seen. Does seem unlikely to me as well though. I would guess they're a bit torn between bailing as soon as possible in some face-saving way, or going all in, and I agree with some of the comments up-thread about how that might look, i.e. nuclear or chemical.
FabricLiveBaby!
Live Baby Fabric!
I saw it too. Turns out it's old - from the beginning of March.
emanymton
A cat politely sat on the flaming gardener.
At this point it is clear that so far this is a major strategic disaster for Russia.
1. There is no chance of Ukraine being integrated into a greater Russia, super mastermind Putin has manged to foster nothing but resentment and hate from the most pro Russia part of Ukraine.
2. He may have wanted to try and divide NATO but in fact NATO is largely unified, is uping military spending and possibly expanding.
3. If he wanted a showcase of Russian military might, this has not been it.
4. Russia is more isolated internationally and subject to severe sanctions. Possibly more significant is the plans in Europe to stop importing Russian oil and gas. Although I will believe that when it actually happens.
Considering the losses they are taking then yes, they either need to withdraw soon or commit even harder. Which I think probably means the use of chemical weapons. There are rummers they have been used already but if so it was not a large scale use. Chemical weapon use is much easier to deny or claim is a false flag compared to nuclear. The nuclear option is still a long way off I think.
1. There is no chance of Ukraine being integrated into a greater Russia, super mastermind Putin has manged to foster nothing but resentment and hate from the most pro Russia part of Ukraine.
2. He may have wanted to try and divide NATO but in fact NATO is largely unified, is uping military spending and possibly expanding.
3. If he wanted a showcase of Russian military might, this has not been it.
4. Russia is more isolated internationally and subject to severe sanctions. Possibly more significant is the plans in Europe to stop importing Russian oil and gas. Although I will believe that when it actually happens.
Considering the losses they are taking then yes, they either need to withdraw soon or commit even harder. Which I think probably means the use of chemical weapons. There are rummers they have been used already but if so it was not a large scale use. Chemical weapon use is much easier to deny or claim is a false flag compared to nuclear. The nuclear option is still a long way off I think.
platinumsage
HaveMyPassword123
They walked away from Kyiv. All they need for May 9th is "defeated the Nazis in Rostov" or something.
dilute micro
esse quam videri
From Nehammer's visit, it sounds as if Putin thinks he's doing okay. Even though Russia was beaten back in the north Putin still controls the areas he took at the beginning of the war plus the land bridge and expanded areas in the east. Putin can still call this a win up to this point, ignoring the enormous cost. But Putin cannot lose any of his gains on the original battlefield because that will be unspinnable.
dylanredefined
Not a house elf a tiger
No one knows.
They could be dedicated and proffesional like the airborne unit that basically fought to the last trying to hold on to the airport they seized at the start of the war.
Or Rubbish like the rest of the military not a bet anyone wants to make.
emanymton
A cat politely sat on the flaming gardener.
Even if only 1 in 10 work that is more than enough.
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Bahnhof Strasse
Met up with Hannah Courtoy a week next Tuesday
Whatever they call a win or not, Putin's fucked it. Europe was scaling back on all oil and gas use, this is speeding things up in that direction. The documented war crimes that have been committed this past two months are too many to ignore, Putin will never again be invited to the table, for as long as he remains in charge Russia will be a pariah to the west, a west that will go in and help rebuild what's left of Ukraine and cement its place there. However Putin can't step down as when he does he'll be killed. Tricky situation for the Grand Master...
maomao
普費斯
They supposedly have 1600 usable out of a stock of 6000 warheads. Say they're lying and they know half of them don't work (unlikely), half of the remaining malfunction (again unlikely) and that western air defense do far better than anyone expected and take out half the remaining then that's 200 nuclear bombs and a probably nine digit death toll. Most of the missiles are in the 400-800kt range so 20-40 Hiroshima's a time but they claim to have 50-100kt drone subs which you don't even want to think about.
dilute micro
esse quam videri
I'd say anyone in the same camp as Putin will be treated like Putin. Russia will need a political 180 before any progress is made. I think, outside of any major changes, whoever replaces Putin will try to appear to be less Imperial Russia and more West friendly. You know, business is business. I doubt it will fool anybody.
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
yeah - but who would win?
maomao
普費斯
Anyone with a decent bunker and a country so large there would be uncontaminated farmland immediately available.
I was watching something on YouTube this morning, (again, yeah, I know, I have trouble sleeping,) and it was pointing out the vagueness of their objectives. It is feasible they could claim to have met these denazification of Ukraine, strengthening support for the Russian minorities in the east, seeing Ukraine phorfit NATO membership, et cetera. This could be presented to the domestic audience. Internationally they have fucked themselves either way, though of course.
Chz
Stark Raving Sane
So Canada. It's always Canada.
19sixtysix
Life as viewed from a Gay Gorbals Garret
Patagonia seems nice at mo
David Clapson
Well-Known Member
And New Zealand. US billionaires have been buying land and building bunkers Why Silicon Valley billionaires are prepping for the apocalypse in New Zealand
If there's ships and fuel available I'm sure New Zealand will fill up pretty quickly with what's left of the 8 billion human beings looking for a way to survive a post apocalyptic world.
gosub
~#
The first European Union leader to meet with Putin since the invasion of Ukraine says the Russian president 'believes he is winning the war'
Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer said his conversation with Putin was not "friendly" but "frank and tough."
www.businessinsider.com
Think Ne hammer is wrong when he says no one agrees with Putin , Pyrrhus would tell him he's doing a grand job. But what would I know? I still can't work out what JK Rowling being cancelled has to do with Russian national Security
tim
EXPLODED TIM! (Help me!!!)
Navalny wants the West to buy ads on social media to inform the Russian public about the war. How would this work? Putin's already blocked Facebook and Instagram. Presumably he could block any other platform if he wants to? Is Navalny talking about ads in Google search results or something?
Kremlin critic Navalny calls for Google and Meta to turn their adtech into an anti-war weapon | TechCrunch
Jailed Kremlin critic Alexey Navalny has called on tech giants Google and Meta/Facebook to help circumvent Putin's grip on the media and get informationtechcrunch.com
Alexei Navalny calls for social media ‘information front’ against Russia
Jailed opposition leader urges west to support huge ad campaign in order to break through Kremlin Ukraine war propagandawww.theguardian.com
Edit: perhaps we English speakers haven't fully understood Navalny's request, which is in 31 tweets
Putin and chums really are fucking useless, aren't they?
Not only did they fail to poison Navalny properly, but they are also incapable of keeping him of Twitter even when they've got him locked up in the Lubyanka. Comrade Stalin and Ivan the Terrible must be rotating in their sarcophagi.
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A thought occurred to me just now - are we maybe missing something much deeper in the various Russian failures and could it be that Putin's plan has been being sabotaged all along by interests in the Russian govt working on their own account?
I'm sure it's not a tremendously new take but I was thinking about the peculiar failures of the Russian air force - maybe the reason they haven't turned up has been as much to do with a lack of will as much as anything else.
I'm sure it's not a tremendously new take but I was thinking about the peculiar failures of the Russian air force - maybe the reason they haven't turned up has been as much to do with a lack of will as much as anything else.
tim
EXPLODED TIM! (Help me!!!)
In the interests of M.I.9 and 3/4.
_Russ_
Never not Knowingly Misunderstood
So Russia
maomao
普費斯
No shit Sherlock.
Cid
Proper break this time
<sings> Take as old as time...
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