Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[emanymton]

SF? SpookyFrank???

Special forces.

I assume.

I'm sure there are more than a few teams from NATO countries on the ground.

 

[Spymaster]

SpookyFrank???

He's FSB.

That's why their ship sank.

 

[Supine]

He's FSB.

That's why their ship sank.

You’d know ‘Spymaster’

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

The British have been training the Ukrainians for ages and been passing high quality intelligence to them throughout the war. Various Ukrainians from the president down have repeatedly thanked the U.K., they aren’t doing that to make us feel good, it’s genuine thanks. U.K. and US special forces have been training hard to evacuate the Ukrainian leadership should they request it. Would also not be at all surprised to find that a number of them that were helping with the training in Ukraine before it kicked off missed their flights home and are still there, but we won’t have any confirmation of that until this is all over, if ever.

 

[Pickman's model]

This conflict is dramatically lopsided - it's become obvious that the Russian forces would be hopeless against a Nato force with the full range of Nato weapons. They don't have logistics, or professional NCOs, or motivated soldiers, or vehicles which protect the occupants. Generals have to go to the front. Soldiers aren't good for much apart from torturing prisoners. There's no defence against drones at night. What have they got that works? Artillery, anti aircraft missiles, cruise missiles.

Yeh. But where's your evidence for your claim Putin wanted NATO eastward expansion? I suspect it's another clapson fact. And your analysis of Russian forces seems rather er overoptimistic as despite their imminent dissolution being predicted several times they are still in the field. Ukraine demands more and more weapons, which isn't indicative of fighting a foe on the verge of running out of everything. Indeed, some of these russian vehicles that don't protect the occupants have just been sent to Ukraine who would I suppose have refused them if they're as rubbish as you say. Anyway, eastward expansion evidence pls

 

[emanymton]

Yeh. But where's your evidence for your claim Putin wanted NATO eastward expansion? I suspect it's another clapson fact. And your analysis of Russian forces seems rather er overoptimistic as despite their imminent dissolution being predicted several times they are still in the field. Ukraine demands more and more weapons, which isn't indicative of fighting a foe on the verge of running out of everything. Indeed, some of these russian vehicles that don't protect the occupants have just been sent to Ukraine who would I suppose have refused them if they're as rubbish as you say. Anyway, eastward expansion evidence pls

One thing I've heard recently is that Russia's problem at the moment is lack of manpower rather than kit. For Ukraine it is the opposite they have the manpower but are short on kit.

Not sure quite how true that is, but it makes sense that Ukraine would want everything they can get their hands on if true.

Source was a recent episode of the war on the rocks podcast.

 

[Pickman's model]

One thing I've heard recently is that Russia's problem at the moment is lack of manpower rather than kit. For Ukraine it is the opposite they have the manpower but are short on kit.

Not sure quite how true that is, but it makes sense that Ukraine would want everything they can get their hands on if true.

Source was a recent episode of the war on the rocks podcast.

Have you seen anything while looking about supporting clapson's claim Putin actually wants NATO eastward expansion?

 

[emanymton]

Have you seen anything while looking about supporting clapson's claim Putin actually wants NATO eastward expansion?

No that is clearly rubbish.

 

[Pickman's model]

So you briefly lost control of your bile and tried to cover with a rapid edit, and you even got a like from 8ball. Impressive. But your new argument rests on Putin's plan NOT being to prevent Nato's eastward expansion. Which actually IS his plan. Really, you'd have done better to cut your previous post down to a full stop.

Soz I owe you an apology for late night misreading. You should go back and read eg my 12475 to relieve your confusion. Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022

 

[frogwoman]

Bizarre discussions on Russian TV, apparently poor old Russia is trying to operate 'within the logic of a special operation' but bad old Kyiv is responding with a war.

 

[Pickman's model]

Bizarre discussions on Russian TV, apparently poor old Russia is trying to operate 'within the logic of a special operation' but bad old Kyiv is responding with a war.

You'd have thought they'd rehearse this sort of thing to prevent cock ups like this

 

[maomao]

Bizarre discussions on Russian TV, apparently poor old Russia is trying to operate 'within the logic of a special operation' but bad old Kyiv is responding with a war.

Never watch Russian TV clips on Twitter when you've woken up at 4am worrying about nuclear war. Though one of the things that bugs me most is why the fuck are they all standing up?

 

[Artaxerxes]

Again I think the idea that the Russian forces are universaly inept, disorganised, poorly motivated in this conflict, whilst seductive is overstated. Reading an account from a British bloke fighting with the Ukrainians, when the Russians have been organised on the ground, the artiliry is relentless and they stand and fight. We also don't really know the extent of Ukrainian military losses.

When your fighting an opponent three or four times smaller sheer mass takes you a long way. The Russian forces canbe both comically shit and still put out a lot of damage. That's the nature of having big old weapons. A normal functioning army supposedly prepared for an offensive shouldn't be drafting in SUVs to supply it's army within a week of the conflict starting.

Overall reports suggest they are ok at limited manoeuvre but fail at rapid response and initiative which ties into what some of these NATO General articles about what they found pre-war are saying.

Ukraine needs ammo and kit but any army always does, but the picture emerging of them suggests a lot more capable army with units capable of independent thought and objectives. They just will continue to struggle to take back ground because taking ground is bloody hard. Hopefully the supplied Hummers and M1113 and other kit will facilitate that.

 

[Spymaster]

Bizarre discussions on Russian TV, apparently poor old Russia is trying to operate 'within the logic of a special operation' but bad old Kyiv is responding with a war.

Any idea what’s upsetting the dude with the tache so much?

 

[tommers]

Was just going to post that. Those guys look scared, well actually they look petrified.

 

[two sheds]

Ukraine seems to have recovered $620 million towards future rebuilding costs

Ukraine has seized the assets of captured Putin ally Viktor Medvedchuk, including 50 homes, 26 cars, 30 plots of land, and one yacht

The Ukrainian politician, thought to be Putin's top choice for replacing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, was captured Tuesday.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[Pickman's model]

Meanwhile in the US

U.S.S. The Sullivans destroyer at Buffalo Naval Park taking on water

Water has reached the top deck of the vessel.

spectrumlocalnews.com

View attachment 318581

Russian news sites reporting it to distract from the Moskva sinking but It's a museum piece, not quite the same as losing a serving flag ship.

https://avia-pro.net/news/amerikanskiy-esminec-uss-sullivans-poluchil-proboinu-i-poshyol-na-dno

Do the Americans have many ships named after Australian TV programmes? Is there a uss neighbours out there, alongside a uss home and away?[/silliness]

 

[frogwoman]

I'll have to watch it a few times but I thibk he's saying that the sinking of the warship is a reason to start a war. At several points he refers to the war as a war, and when the host tries to 'correct' him he says 'The special operation finished last night and a war has started'. I'll have to watch the video a few times but I think talking about a full war against Ukraine which would free up more resources and allow for total mobilisation etc

 

[existentialist]

The British have been training the Ukrainians for ages and been passing high quality intelligence to them throughout the war. Various Ukrainians from the president down have repeatedly thanked the U.K., they aren’t doing that to make us feel good, it’s genuine thanks. U.K. and US special forces have been training hard to evacuate the Ukrainian leadership should they request it. Would also not be at all surprised to find that a number of them that were helping with the training in Ukraine before it kicked off missed their flights home and are still there, but we won’t have any confirmation of that until this is all over, if ever.

In Oman, British Army Training Teams quite regularly ended up, er, "training by example"...

 

[Pickman's model]

He's saying that the sinking of the warship is a reason to start a war. At several points he refers to the war as a war, and when the host tries to 'correct' him he says 'The special operation finished last night and a war has started'. I'll have to watch the video a few times but I think talking about a full war against Ukraine which would free up more resources and allow for total mobilisation etc

I didn't think so at the time but 2021 was a much better year than I gave it credit for. 2022 just keeps on getting worse

 

[maomao]

Any idea what’s upsetting the dude with the tache so much?

At the start he's talking about the Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory that happened two nights ago. Not widely reported in western media and labelled as a possible false flag (though if they are attacking they'll be trying to make it harder for the troops that left north of Kyiv to get round to Donbas).

 

[Cid]

He's saying that the sinking of the warship is a reason to start a war. At several points he refers to the war as a war, and when the host tries to 'correct' him he says 'The special operation finished last night and a war has started'. I'll have to watch the video a few times but I think talking about a full war against Ukraine which would free up more resources and allow for total mobilisation etc

Won't necessarily free up much more in terms of equipment etc afaik, since Russia needs to maintain its other commitments in order to not look incredibly vulnerable... But would allow them to draw on reserves, expand conscription etc.

But yes, it's speculative, but noises around the border attacks (whether false flag or not), Moskva etc are possibly preparing for that.

There's a good (I think) series on youtube by an ozzie called perun... been hesitant to recommend it as I don't have any expertise to judge the content, and it's all long-form powerpoint stuff (though that does mean you can just listen). Was a gaming channel, but afaik works in procurement with a background in history, and his channel has basically switched to doing mainly this... It goes through a lot of info on economics, capacity for mobilisation, breaking down myths etc. I think the 'reservists and irregulars' ep talks about how exactly mobilising various different elements might work. Obviously more from the nerd side, though quite... realist as opposed to triumphalist I suppose. kebabking you seen any of them?

 

[kabbes]

Oh noes, Ukraine might have provoked Russia, just imagine how they might respond.

 

[existentialist]

Won't necessarily free up much more in terms of equipment etc afaik, since Russia needs to maintain its other commitments in order to not look incredibly vulnerable... But would allow them to draw on reserves, expand conscription etc.

But yes, it's speculative, but noises around the border attacks (whether false flag or not), Moskva etc are possibly preparing for that.

There's a good (I think) series on youtube by an ozzie called perun... been hesitant to recommend it as I don't have any expertise to judge the content, and it's all long-form powerpoint stuff (though that does mean you can just listen). Was a gaming channel, but afaik works in procurement with a background in history, and his channel has basically switched to doing mainly this... It goes through a lot of info on economics, capacity for mobilisation, breaking down myths etc. I think the 'reservists and irregulars' ep talks about how exactly mobilising various different elements might work. Obviously more from the nerd side, though quite... realist as opposed to triumphalist I suppose. kebabking you seen any of them?

Perun's stuff is good, and forensic...but lengthy. But he takes you through stuff very methodically.

 

[maomao]

Oh noes, Ukraine might have provoked Russia, just imagine how they might respond.

Tactical nukes or destroying railways that take refugees out and bring weapons in are two of the scarier possibilities.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Seems that Russia has bombed the factory that makes the missiles that didn’t sink their ship.

 

[FabricLiveBaby!]

Air raid sirens now reported in Kyiv.

 

[emanymton]

Tactical nukes or destroying railways that take refugees out and bring weapons in are two of the scarier possibilities.

Pretty sure they would be doing the later already if they could.

It is possible that they previously felt the risk was too high but will now feel they have to take the risk I guess.

 

[frogwoman]

Mandatory callups, factories being given over to military use, ratcheting up censorship even more?

 

[frogwoman]

I wouldn't want to be a Ukrainian POW or civilian in the occupied areas right now tbh