Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[Spymaster]

Not sure the quality of intelligence has been that good TBF, or at least is the sort that could only have come from some high level source(s).

Disagree. Especially the information that became evident in the early stages of war regarding the likelihood of an invasion and military build-ups. I think that's also borne-out by these reports of Putin purging sections of his military and intelligence (if true, obvs).

 

[nogojones]

Another mysterious fire I see.

They've managed to put the fire out at least

 

[Ming]

Your overall point is correct, but I think you either mean HMS Barham from a torpedo, or HMS Hood from a 15" shell from the Bismarck. They both went up in minutes due to magazine explosions.

Pretty sure it was a shell. My dad’s best mate was in the engine room.

ETA: On HMS Hood.

 

[elbows]

Disagree. Especially the information that became evident in the early stages of war regarding the likelihood of an invasion and military build-ups. I think that's also borne-out by these reports of Putin purging sections of his military and intelligence (if true, obvs).

It was pretty good, detailed info that rang true at the time and was the only reason why the invasion did not surprise me when it actually happened. We arent often treated to that sort of thing being made public in advance, and some people probably didnt take it seriously at the time because they were used to bullshit versions of intelligence that were only used publicly to offer bogus justifications for war.

 

[AverageJoe]

Trolling or just photoshop. Ukraine produced a stamp one day before they sunk the ship. Kudos.

View attachment 318567

Bbc is saying it was released in March after the ship ordered the soldiers on outpost Snake Island to surrender and they replied with "Russian ship, fuck you".

Was used as a call to arms. Let me find the link.

"
In the early days of Russia's invasion the Moskva made global headlines after it ordered a group of Ukrainian soldiers on an outpost in the Black Sea to surrender.
When the troops defiantly refused in a radio message, it was initially believed that the border troops had been killed but in fact they had been taken captive.
The soldiers were later released as part of a prisoner swap with Russia in late March and their commander was honoured with a medal by the Ukrainian military.
The tale of their bravery became such a boost to Ukraine's morale that that the country's postal service commemorated their encounter on Snake Island with a special illustrated stamp"

Sunken Russian warship Moskva: What do we know?

Russia says the Moskva sank after an explosion of ammunition, but Ukrainians say they hit it with missiles.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Artaxerxes]

Another mysterious fire I see.

I didn't expect them to legit say this.

Given the state of Russian kit it's probably spontaneous

 

[Spymaster]

It was pretty good, detailed info that rang true at the time and was the only reason why the invasion did not surprise me when it actually happened. We arent often treated to that sort of thing being made public in advance, and some people probably didnt take it seriously at the time because they were used to bullshit versions of intelligence that were only used publicly to offer bogus justifications for war.

Plus of course there'll be an awful lot more sharing of stuff we have no idea about.

 

[Ming]

I'm sort of curious when I see how much of the twitter etc commentary has spoken about how shocking the loss of this ship was, what implications it has for other navies etc.

Because to my mind the loss of such a ship being seen as shocking is just a consequence of quite how ridiculously lopsided so many of the other wars in my lifetime have been, tending to feature one side which lacked the capabilities to inflict that sort of damage on the enemy.

I'll be the first to admit that in the opening weeks of this war, things had been framed in my mind in a manner which broadly followed that template, with Ukraine in the almost helpless underdog role. But its been a while since the reality was shown to be different enough that such a template wasnt a great fit, thankfully. So now I have adjusted, and Ukrainian victories and Russian losses are not shocking. But elsewhere is it fair to say there still seems to be giddy reactions of surprise that suggest some have been much slower to move beyond the narrow template which lopsided conflicts of this century made the norm? How long will that persist before expectations expand sufficiently to fit the real spectrum of possibilities that conflicts can actually feature?

I know what you mean. It’s usually a massively outclassed nation vs a coalition of the tooled up.

 

[David Clapson]

Perhaps the Moskva and the T-72 tanks have something in common: they look good on the outside, but on the inside they're so cramped that the crew can barely move, and ammunition isn't protected by enough armour. So one shot from a small missile can start a chain reaction.

 

[Pickman's model]

So you briefly lost control of your bile and tried to cover with a rapid edit, and you even got a like from 8ball. Impressive. But your new argument rests on Putin's plan NOT being to prevent Nato's eastward expansion. Which actually IS his plan. Really, you'd have done better to cut your previous post down to a full stop.

What is your evidence for your claim that Putin actually wants eastward expansion?

 

[Indeliblelink]

Meanwhile in the US

U.S.S. The Sullivans destroyer at Buffalo Naval Park taking on water

Water has reached the top deck of the vessel.

spectrumlocalnews.com

Russian news sites reporting it to distract from the Moskva sinking but It's a museum piece, not quite the same as losing a serving flag ship.

https://avia-pro.net/news/amerikanskiy-esminec-uss-sullivans-poluchil-proboinu-i-poshyol-na-dno

 

[dilute micro]

You suggested the US were lying about it avoid 'severe repercussions' or as some part of a game involving shielding Putin from reality.

What is more likely is that the USA lacked the right info, or had a lag in that info, or sought to disguise how much they really knew, or quite plausibly not wanting to be the ones to confirm it had sunk, perhaps as part of some etiquette involving letting nations confirm their own major losses first. Such etiquette is often going to seem rather bizarre given what else happens in war, and Im very far from being knowledgeable about such things, but I expect it exists.

I will still partially concede to your point, since the aforementioned etiquette is a part of diplomacy, and such diplomacy does have an 'avoiding severe repercussions' dimension. Just not quite the flavour of it that you were getting at. ie its more about giving Russia more control over the timing and detail of the announcement of the loss of this ship, rather than completely enabling Putin to totally deny that the ship was lost, or enabling other parts of the Russian regime to hide the truth from Putin.

Or the US was telling Ukraine exactly where to find the Moskva. And then when asked about it, played it as "Oh the Moskva? Don't know, we'll look into that".

 

[not-bono-ever]

I'm sort of curious when I see how much of the twitter etc commentary has spoken about how shocking the loss of this ship was, what implications it has for other navies etc.

Because to my mind the loss of such a ship being seen as shocking is just a consequence of quite how ridiculously lopsided so many of the other wars in my lifetime have been, tending to feature one side which lacked the capabilities to inflict that sort of damage on the enemy.

I was thinking about this earlier. kinda. we are used to the lopsided conflicts far far away. We know that equally mostly matched regionalised conflicts are ongoing - Libya/ DRC etc but the location and the mutual tech involved is bringing it a bit close to home. Its a turbocharged conflict that we are unable to mentally detach as you would normally do

 

[agricola]

Disagree. Especially the information that became evident in the early stages of war regarding the likelihood of an invasion and military build-ups. I think that's also borne-out by these reports of Putin purging sections of his military and intelligence (if true, obvs).

That sort of thing wasn’t that secret though, everyone could see the buildup via commercial satellites anyway, and the invasion might have been a logical guess based on what they knew about any negotiations.

 

[David Clapson]

This conflict is dramatically lopsided - it's become obvious that the Russian forces would be hopeless against a Nato force with the full range of Nato weapons. They don't have logistics, or professional NCOs, or motivated soldiers, or vehicles which protect the occupants. Generals have to go to the front. Soldiers aren't good for much apart from torturing prisoners. There's no defence against drones at night. What have they got that works? Artillery, anti aircraft missiles, cruise missiles.

 

[Dogsauce]

Disagree. Especially the information that became evident in the early stages of war regarding the likelihood of an invasion and military build-ups. I think that's also borne-out by these reports of Putin purging sections of his military and intelligence (if true, obvs).

One example of western intel being critical was the tip-off about Russia staging an attack on Hostomel Airport outside Kyiv on Day 1 of the invasion, in which a large number of their ‘elite’ paratroopers arrived by helicopters only to get slaughtered by waiting defenders. Had the attack succeeded, further waves of troops and equipment would have been quickly flown in by large aircraft and the capital may have been seized in days, it can’t be understated how crucial this information was in changing the course of the war and throwing Russia’s plans into disarray. Probably plenty of other helpful info we aren’t aware of, particularly with target selection (those generals that kept getting bumped off weren’t just unlucky).

 

[Dogsauce]

I'm sort of curious when I see how much of the twitter etc commentary has spoken about how shocking the loss of this ship was, what implications it has for other navies etc.

Because to my mind the loss of such a ship being seen as shocking is just a consequence of quite how ridiculously lopsided so many of the other wars in my lifetime have been, tending to feature one side which lacked the capabilities to inflict that sort of damage on the enemy.

I'll be the first to admit that in the opening weeks of this war, things had been framed in my mind in a manner which broadly followed that template, with Ukraine in the almost helpless underdog role. But its been a while since the reality was shown to be different enough that such a template wasnt a great fit, thankfully. So now I have adjusted, and Ukrainian victories and Russian losses are not shocking. But elsewhere is it fair to say there still seems to be giddy reactions of surprise that suggest some have been much slower to move beyond the narrow template which lopsided conflicts of this century made the norm? How long will that persist before expectations expand sufficiently to fit the real spectrum of possibilities that conflicts can actually feature?

In naval terms it still was/is massively lopsided though, Ukraine had no navy to speak of (they scuttled their only largish ship at the beginning of the war to prevent capture). The Moscow was an extremely well armoured vessel with three layers of anti-air defences, taken out with a couple of natively-developed and quite basic Ukrainian missiles that somehow got through. This incident really is David-and-Goliath stuff.

 

[DaveCinzano]

No fighting on the war thread!

Everyone enjoys a good remix

 

[David Clapson]

The Moscow was an extremely well armoured vessel with three layers of anti-air defences, taken out with a couple of natively-developed and quite basic Ukrainian missiles that somehow got through. This incident really is David-and-Goliath stuff.

What's more likely - the missiles got through because they're so effective, or the Moskva's defences were undermined by poor maintenance, corruption, bad training or flawed command? Be interesting to see what happens to the officers.

 

[SpookyFrank]

This conflict is dramatically lopsided - it's become obvious that the Russian forces would be hopeless against a Nato force with the full range of Nato weapons. They don't have logistics, or professional NCOs, or motivated soldiers, or vehicles which protect the occupants. Generals have to go to the front. Soldiers aren't good for much apart from torturing prisoners. There's no defence against drones at night. What have they got that works? Artillery, anti aircraft missiles, cruise missiles.

A big chunk of their anti aircraft capability just got taken off the board as well.

 

[David Clapson]

The first cruiser lost in battle since the Belgrano. A disaster for Putin.

 

[frogwoman]

Any word on the Crew?

 

[SpookyFrank]

Any word on the Crew?

60 of them were rescued by a Turkish civillian vessel. Don't know about the rest. Full complement is 500.

 

[David Clapson]

Unconfirmed reports on Twitter that Admiral Igor Osipov, Commander of the Black Sea Fleet, has been arrested.

 

[xenon]

Again I think the idea that the Russian forces are universaly inept, disorganised, poorly motivated in this conflict, whilst seductive is overstated. Reading an account from a British bloke fighting with the Ukrainians, when the Russians have been organised on the ground, the artiliry is relentless and they stand and fight. We also don't really know the extent of Ukrainian military losses.

 

[Kaka Tim]

Again I think the idea that the Russian forces are universaly inept, disorganised, poorly motivated in this conflict, whilst seductive is overstated. Reading an account from a British bloke fighting with the Ukrainians, when the Russians have been organised on the ground, the artiliry is relentless and they stand and fight. We also don't really know the extent of Ukrainian military losses.

dunno. from pretty much the start of the war, people have been warning that its all over for Ukraine once the Russian's get their military shit sorted. And every time they tread on the end of a rake and get smacked. Their problems with poor logistics, communications, morale, rigid command structures, leadership and inability to adapt to changing circumstances seem endemic. Im reminded of the Chernobyl tv drama - which brilliantly demonstrated how a corrupt and unaccountable system inevitably fucks itself. Allowing your flagship to get taken out that easily looks like serious incompetence. A bit like losing all your crack airborne troops by flying them into contested air space. Or getting half your army marooned on a motorway for two weeks. Or gifting your enemy several armoured divisions worth of tanks, APCs and missile systems.

 

[elbows]

In regards Kyiv not having been attacked from the air recently:

Russian investigators say that Ukraine carried out air strikes on a residential area in Russia earlier today.

Officials say two low-flying military helicopters equipped with heavy arms attacked the town of Klimovo, injuring seven people including a child and damaging six houses.

Reports of the attack – which has not been independently verified – came after Moscow announced it would bomb targets in Kyiv and other parts of Ukraine if Ukrainian forces continued to attack its territory.

Thats from 14:28 on the BBC live updates page https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61101906

I havent managed to get a full picture of how safe Kyiv has been from bombing recently, though when I had a brief attempt at doing this the other day I got the impression that maybe it might not have been attacked since the end of March.

Unfortunately it does sound like that pretext and warning from Russia was a sign of what was to come, since there have been reports of explosions in Kyiv tonight.

Ukraine are apparently doing a 'dont tweet out details so as not to give Russia information about the success of any attacks' thing so I dont know how quickly info will be forthcoming.

 

[JimW]

Again I think the idea that the Russian forces are universaly inept, disorganised, poorly motivated in this conflict, whilst seductive is overstated. Reading an account from a British bloke fighting with the Ukrainians, when the Russians have been organised on the ground, the artiliry is relentless and they stand and fight. We also don't really know the extent of Ukrainian military losses.

Tend to agree, strikes me wars like any other human endeavour are full of fuck-ups, pretty sure read of several by allies during wwII (killing loads in pre normandy landing exercises) when troops involved were disciplined and high morale.

 

[Spymaster]

That sort of thing wasn’t that secret though, everyone could see the buildup via commercial satellites anyway, and the invasion might have been a logical guess based on what they knew about any negotiations.

Again, I disagree. They were predicting intentions almost to the day and have done since, and that's just things we know about. Some of the information released also looked deliberately planned to create division and paranoia. Again, we won't know the full extent of intelligence operations for a very long time if ever, but I think you underestimate the role it's played in shaping the current state of affairs, and I'd be very surprised if there isn't a fair stream of intel coming out via spooky assets in Moscow, as well as SF reconnaissance types tucked away in compost heaps closer to the fighting.

 

[cupid_stunt]

via spooky assets in Moscow, as well as SF reconnaissance types tucked away in compost heaps closer to the fighting.

SF? SpookyFrank???