Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[Wilf]

The solution is not to do that long string of things that lead to this moment... Concentrating on the immediate present totally focuses on the symptom rather than the cause of the disease .

That's why regarding the Russian invasion of Ukraine it is crucial to dig through and understand the last 30 years.... That's where the critical analysis should focus, not should some particular battalion receive weapons from the British state or not

I'm not sure that I'd phrase it as a 'symptoms v disease' situation, but will go with that. I've been thinking about neoliberalism, the fall of the Soviet empire and the role of Nato as the background and the current invasion as the foreground. Regardless of phrasing, I think this really is a moment to concentrate on the symptoms/foreground. Many thousands have been murdered and raped and many times that have been displaced and terrorised. To me, that's what we need to focus on, providing support to those people, providing solidarity through the labour movement, well, doing what you can. Might add, we can do that support in a way that keeps class and capital in view (neoliberalism... arms companies... oligarchs... Tory party donors.... sportswash - take your pick),

None of that stops us doing theory, doing causes, doing the background. We've got to do that analysis. But if theory/frameworks take us to a place where we can't do straightforward support for people being brutalised and murdered, that theory needs to have a look at itself. That's not a dig at anyone on this thread, though it certainly is at the stwc. I'm rambling a bit and I'm not proposing some simplistic humanitarianism, maybe just focusing on what's important at this particular time.

Edit: should have read on, LynnDoyleCooper said it better in 3 lines.

I'd like to think the two broad topics can (and should) run alongside each other though - an analysis and discussion of how it ended up like this, and also what should our position be now given we're in this state, and part of that is what and how to support (even if that support is at a distance and relatively small/unimportant) what's happening. I mean the former helps with the later doesn't it? There's pitfalls with focusing too much on one or t'other though of course.

 

[IC3D]

I hate to look at it from Putin's view but he has been a successful leader that inherited a Russia from Yeltsin that was looking like Ukraine in 2014. A state crumbling because competing oligarchs and mafias.
Whereas he demanded they stay out of politics in return for protection the Oligarchs of Ukraine created militias and caused chaos in the east to protect and take over assets. The Avoz battalion were in Mariopul to protect the Oligarchy dressed as nationalism it seems.
The question is how much things really improved since then. Zelensky got in on an anti corruption ticket but how much of that is smoke and mirrors.
Putin has in his mind the solution using the power inherited from the KGB/FSB while Ukraine was a vacuum with the identical mobsters running the show.
I'm sure he sees liberal democracy as too weak to reign that power in.

 

[Kaka Tim]

Dunno it's all a bit "I wouldn't start from here" isn't it? The previous mistakes, shittery, imperialism and geo political shenanigans of nato/eu/USA are kind of by the by.
The present situation is an aggressive nuclear armed Russian state sliding into fascist totalitarianism run by a paranoid dictator obsessed with restoring its former glory.
It's a hugely dangerous situation with grave implications for the entire human race. It's just the very real threat of nuclear armegeddin, but also addressing the a catastrophic climate emergency.
The debate should focus on how the fuck does humanity address that shit show?
Whatever the answer is it will mean dealing with the world as it is not how it should be.

 

[kebabking]

At a joint press conference, The Swedish and Finnish Prime Ministers have announced that both countries will be joining NATO before the summer.

NATO summit in Madrid in June should be where it's all signed off, and both states are looking for bi-lateral security guarantees to be in place before the accession date.

Vladimir Putin remains a master strategist.

 

[Kevbad the Bad]

The key period of relevance here though is post Soviet history

Only because you say it is.

 

[A380]

If you remember 2003 as you claim you'll recall that troops were moved to Saudi Arabia some time before the laughable parliamentary vote on the matter, when it was clear that there would be war as everything had already been arranged long before the 15.2.03 demo let alone any parliamentary debate

Indeed, but it’s not always a given. In 2013 Cameron lost the vote to strike against the Assad regime in Syria. If the RAF weren’t actually bombed up on the runway at Akrotiri , planning was, apparently, very far advanced.

Who knows what would have happened if that vote had gone the other way. I mean, things would be shit obviously, but maybe a different kind of shit.

 

[maomao]

Dunno it's all a bit "I wouldn't start from here" isn't it? The previous mistakes, shittery, imperialism and geo political shenanigans of nato/eu/USA are kind of by the by.
The present situation is an aggressive nuclear armed Russian state sliding into fascist totalitarianism run by a paranoid dictator obsessed with restoring its former glory.
It's a hugely dangerous situation with grave implications for the entire human race. It's just the very real threat of nuclear armegeddin, but also addressing the a catastrophic climate emergency.
The debate should focus on how the fuck does humanity address that shit show?
Whatever the answer is it will mean dealing with the world as it is not how it should be.

There's definitely value in trying to ensure it doesn't happen again though and that will require more than dealing with the present emergency.

It's more a question of what should be talked about on which thread. And this is the current events/armchair generals' thread. There's a whole forum for talking about everything else.

 

[Pickman's model]

Indeed, but it’s not always a given. In 2013 Cameron lost the vote to strike against the Assad regime in Syria. If the RAF weren’t actually bombed up on the runway at Akritrari , planning was, apparently, very far advanced.

Who knows what would have happened if that vote had gone the other way. I mean, things would be shot obviously, but maybe a different kind of shit.

The RAF had not moved to Cyprus in preparation for the bombardment, it's a wholly different situation tbh: thousands of soldiers plus equipment being moved into theatre v maybe a hundred RAF personnel and a few planes

 

[ska invita]

The debate should focus on how the fuck does humanity address that shit show?
Whatever the answer is it will mean dealing with the world as it is not how it should be.

What is the role of the left here? Surely to make the case for the world as we think it should be.
In terms of dealing with it as is we can provide practical support for those suffering, careful criticism of the politics of the moment, and a clear vision for an alternative. That is dealing with it as we find it.

 

[frogwoman]

From Kherson, Ukrainians Report of Russian Atrocities and Propaganda

With the city closed off, many fear that another massacre like in Bucha is imminent

newlinesmag.com

 

[existentialist]

At a joint press conference, The Swedish and Finnish Prime Ministers have announced that both countries will be joining NATO before the summer.

NATO summit in Madrid in June should be where it's all signed off, and both states are looking for bi-lateral security guarantees to be in place before the accession date.

Vladimir Putin remains a master strategist.

Doesn't he have to become one first in order to remain one?

 

[cupid_stunt]

At a joint press conference, The Swedish and Finnish Prime Ministers have announced that both countries will be joining NATO before the summer.

NATO summit in Madrid in June should be where it's all signed off, and both states are looking for bi-lateral security guarantees to be in place before the accession date.

Vladimir Putin remains a master strategist.

Well that'll piss off Putin, not that he can do much about it, what with being a little busy elsewhere.

 

[existentialist]

Well that'll piss off Putin, not that he can do much about it, what with being a little busy elsewhere.

ODHSNM.

 

[kebabking]

Well that'll piss off Putin, not that he can do much about it, what with being a little busy elsewhere.

He's already moved some stuff up to the Finnish border to do exercises, a bit of deep fires stuff and some noise about rebalancing, but he doesn't have a dozen high-end armoured divisions lying around doing nothing (though it would be unwise to believe he's put everything into Ukraine, he hasn't, not by any means).

Expect lots of air and sea incursions, cyber stuff, some dark threats and warnings, I imagine he'll start concentrating what force he can up there - bombers, deep fires, local tank units, calling up reserves and going to town on the Finnish Nazi's rhetoric and winding up RT...

 

[Dystopiary]

Expect lots of air and sea incursions, cyber stuff, some dark threats and warnings, I imagine he'll start concentrating what force he can up there - bombers, deep fires, local tank units, calling up reserves and going to town on the Finnish Nazi's rhetoric and winding up RT...

Cross-posted from Russian infowars thread - Russian TV pundit undit Nikita Danyuk:

"Of course I think it's unlikely to be implemented, but I've got the impression that the denazification operation should in one way or another take place not only in Ukraine because what we're now seeing in the Baltics is an outright honouring of the Nazis"

 

[A380]

He's already moved some stuff up to the Finnish border to do exercises, a bit of deep fires stuff and some noise about rebalancing, but he doesn't have a dozen high-end armoured divisions lying around doing nothing (though it would be unwise to believe he's put everything into Ukraine, he hasn't, not by any means).

Expect lots of air and sea incursions, cyber stuff, some dark threats and warnings, I imagine he'll start concentrating what force he can up there - bombers, deep fires, local tank units, calling up reserves and going to town on the Finnish Nazi's rhetoric and winding up RT...

So about next Wednesday we can expect George Galloway to announce he is boycotting Nokia…

 

[Idris2002]

At a joint press conference, The Swedish and Finnish Prime Ministers have announced that both countries will be joining NATO before the summer.

NATO summit in Madrid in June should be where it's all signed off, and both states are looking for bi-lateral security guarantees to be in place before the accession date.

Vladimir Putin remains a master strategist.

I'd say his strategic genius is also going to lead to the de facto or otherwise revival of the Intermarium:

Intermarium in the 21st Century - The Institute of World Politics

This paper was written by Agnes Tycner for IWP 634: Geography and Strategy. Agnes is currently pursuing a graduate degree in Statecraft and International

www.iwp.edu

 

[rekil]

So about next Wednesday we can expect George Galloway to announce he is boycotting Nokia…

He's already getting warmed up.

Spoiler

 

[David Clapson]

The US is inching closer to sending heavy weapons 12ft |


Some extracts:

"Preliminary plans...included Mi-17 helicopters, howitzer cannons, coastal defense drones and protective suits...Some of the weapons...would probably require training... the Biden administration is open to doing so. The United States and its allies have been rushing arms to Ukraine for weeks, with the United States alone sending eight to 10 flights of military assistance into neighboring countries every day. As of Tuesday, the Pentagon was close to completing delivery of the last items in an $800 million security assistance package approved by Biden on March 16 and a $100 million set of shipments approved last week. The larger package included Switchblade drones that can be armed with explosives and flown into targets, Stinger antiaircraft missiles, and anti-armor weapons including Javelin missiles. The package approved last week included additional Javelins, after a request from Ukraine as it prepares for a renewed Russian offensive in the east. General Atomics, the maker of Reaper and Predator drones, "have aircraft available now for immediate transfer".

 

[frogwoman]

 

[A380]

He's already getting warmed up.

Spoiler

View attachment 318367

Every day in every way I keep thinking that man’s a cunt.

 

[A380]

Like Wales in the 1930s…

 

[frogwoman]

'The more I hear about this Putin chap, the less I like him.'

 

[LDC]

Among he

Every day in every way I keep thinking that man’s a cunt.

TBH I'd be pretty keen for a campaign to try and get him no-platformed, at the very least kicked out of StW and anything remotely left wing, and not tolerate him speaking at any events like demos etc. Get him banished to the far reaches of the loon fringe of the internet.

 

[A380]

Among he


TBH I'd be pretty keen for a campaign to try and get him no-platformed, at the very least kicked out of StW and anything remotely left wing, and not tolerate him speaking at any events like demos etc. Get him banished to the far reaches of the mad internet.

And on that at least we can agree.

 

[frogwoman]

Fascists, Fascism and the Invasion.

But I'm not sure that's right, I think that just as liberals and social democrats can get the far-left to do stuff for them and not give them anything in return, so you can get the state or mainstream forces working with fascists while managing to keep them on the lead sometimes - to the extent...

www.urban75.net

Talk by Andreas Umland going on now btw - no registration required

 

[kebabking]

'The more I hear about this Putin chap, the less I like him.'

Better suits than the last one, and the decency to be clean shaven, but no new ideas - ein volk, Lebensraum, and purges, it's all just a rather unimaginative, cobbled together rip off of previous hits.

 

[emanymton]

Among he


TBH I'd be pretty keen for a campaign to try and get him no-platformed, at the very least kicked out of StW and anything remotely left wing, and not tolerate him speaking at any events like demos etc. Get him banished to the far reaches of the loon fringe of the internet.

He really should be kicked out of STW. While their position is generally crap he is actively prowar, which you would think would cross some kind of line.

 

[Idris2002]

I'd say his strategic genius is also going to lead to the de facto or otherwise revival of the Intermarium:

Intermarium in the 21st Century - The Institute of World Politics

This paper was written by Agnes Tycner for IWP 634: Geography and Strategy. Agnes is currently pursuing a graduate degree in Statecraft and International

www.iwp.edu

Googling "Intermarium" led me to this item of interest, which passed me by at the time (February this year):

British–Polish–Ukrainian trilateral pact - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I'm not sure the Poles are wise to look at Bojo and think "there's a man we can rely on". But apparently this is a Ukrainian thing, to have lots of little alliances scattered hither and yon.

 

[Dystopiary]

Well, Russian soldiers reported to have been killed in Ukraine aren't coming from Moscow.

Further to discussion up thread about young men from poor areas, ethnically non-Russian guys:

20% of officially confirmed losses come from 10 Russia's depressed regions (plus Dagestan). If we add numbers from semi-depressed regions - it will be roughly 80% of all losses reported by Russian official sources.



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