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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

Politico has an interesting follow-up to the announcement that Nato members will supply heavy weapons:

Western officials are scouring for tanks and heavy weaponry to send to Ukraine as they grapple with a dawning reality: They may need to supply — and resupply — the country’s military for months and even years to come in its battle against Russian invaders.

In the short term, countries are earmarking equipment Ukraine can easily use. The Czech Republic, for instance, is reportedly sending Soviet-designed tanks already familiar to Ukrainian forces.

In the longer term, officials are fielding Ukraine’s fresh demands — and determining what allies are willing to provide. The U.K. is trying to enhance coordination among countries giving supplies, holding a donor conference last week with 35 participants. And the U.S. is seeking partners that can deliver long-range air defense systems, while reportedly accelerating its own production of anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles.

Meanwhile, in Germany, officials are tussling over whether to hand over 100 tanks, which would also require training for the Ukrainian forces.

“The conflict,” said British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, has “entered a new and different phase with a more concentrated Russian offensive.” As a result, she added following a meeting of NATO foreign ministers, there was support to “supply new and heavier equipment to Ukraine.”

Looming over everything, however, are supply crunch fears. Some countries are already warning that they are simply tapped out. And military specialists say production lines are difficult to pivot quickly.

And although the war may last long, Western and Ukrainian officials are also concerned that if they do not move quickly, Russia may be able to make significant gains on the battlefield, particularly in eastern Ukraine, despite early defeats.

“Two weeks ago, it was enough to say what will be given,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said after addressing the NATO ministers. “Today, it’s more important to know when it will be given — and this is something that allies have to sort out and to find appropriate solutions.”

Whatever decisions the West makes will be critical in shaping the war’s next phase. Russia has pulled back some forces from around Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, and is now plotting a punishing offensive in the east likely to begin in a matter of weeks, according to Western officials.

Ukraine’s appeal​

Kuleba arrived Thursday morning with a straightforward request for NATO members.

“My agenda is very simple,” he said. “It only has three items on it. It’s weapons, weapons and weapons.”

Kuleba ticked off a few of the specific items Ukraine is seeking: Fighter jets, more missiles, armored vehicles and heavier air-defense systems.

Some of this equipment, like jets, has been ruled out by the U.S. as too escalatory. But other items, like tanks and more robust air-defense systems, are now on the agenda as the war enters its next chapter.

“It was a clear message from the meeting today that allies should do more and are ready to do more,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Thursday, following the foreign ministers’ gathering. “They recognize the urgency.”

The NATO chief declined to offer specifics about that “more,” however, only saying it included “both Soviet-era systems but also modern equipment.”

So far, Western allies have focused on funneling light weapons to Ukraine, as well as other equipment like body armor and medical supplies. A week into March, a U.S. defense official told CNN that allies had sent Ukraine roughly 17,000 anti-tank missiles and 2,000 anti-aircraft missiles, a number that has certainly risen since then.

But the thinking is transforming as Russia shifts its military tactics.

Initially, Western officials assessed that Russian President Vladimir Putin expected his forces to swiftly encircle Kyiv and other key cities in the hopes of toppling the Ukrainian government.

Having failed at that, officials say Putin is now shifting his battlegroups to Donbas, an eastern region in Ukraine where Russia had already been fomenting unrest for eight years, perhaps aiming to grind out an offensive that claims more territory there.

Russia’s mutating strategy has raised the prospect of a more conventional, long-term ground war involving heavy fighting into the foreseeable future. It’s a war Western allies weren’t exactly expecting, leaving them without a premeditated plan for arming Ukraine’s forces in such a scenario.

Ukraine’s “needs are obviously evolving,” said one Western official. “The appetite from allies to meet those needs is very high, but there’s plenty more work to do to make sure they’re getting what they need.”
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Finally anti-ship missile systems are going to be sent.

The Prime Minister has agreed that the UK will send 120 armoured vehicles and new anti-ship missile systems to support Ukraine following talks between Boris Johnson and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Kyiv on Saturday.

"It is because of President (Volodymyr) Zelenskiy’s resolute leadership and the invincible heroism and courage of the Ukrainian people that (Vladimir) Putin’s monstrous aims are being thwarted,” Boris Johnson said via a statement from Downing Street."

Anti-tank and anti-aircraft weaponry, as well as so-called “suicide drones”, are also among the equipment the UK has pledged to provide Ukraine in the £100 financial and military aid package announced by the PM on Friday. LINK
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_Russ_ said:
Just a link FYI with no opinion (I know, sue me)
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_Russ_ said:
I said, I know (were you a hall monitor in school?)
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Well why did you post it? Why should anyone watch it? Does it offer anything new to reports over the weeks that some drones have crossed into NATO airspace, and that NATO doesn't consider them a threat nor that they consider them as crossing some sort of 'red line' requiring in a response?
 
cupid_stunt said:
Well why did you post it? Why should anyone watch it? Does it offer anything new to reports over the weeks that some drones have crossed into NATO airspace, and that NATO doesn't consider them a threat nor that they consider them as crossing some sort of 'red line' requiring in a response?
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It's an interesting video, but like you I think that threads which become just a list of links are pointless.
 
David Clapson said:
Politico has an interesting follow-up to the announcement that Nato members will supply heavy weapons:
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The biggest supplier of heavy weapons to Ukraine so far in this conflict has been Russia, to date over 1000 vehicles and items of heavy weaponry have been captured from them. This guy has been keeping a detailed list (with photo verification). They have more tanks than they started the war with (although possibly untrue as Ukrainian losses are not well documented)

www.oryxspioenkop.com

Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine

www.oryxspioenkop.com www.oryxspioenkop.com
 
The provision of anti-ship missiles could be interesting if the Russians are still contemplating an amphibious assault on Odessa.
 
cupid_stunt said:
I hope they can reach the ships offshore that have been firing endless missiles into Ukraine, sink a couple of them & the rest would soon withdraw.
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I think it may not be as simple as that - I'm pretty sure that the ships could just stand off further from the coast, and still launch their missiles, particularly as the locus of fighting moves further South.

Where I think they will be more useful is in making a Russian amphibious assault on Ukraine's south (and only) coast a much more risky proposition.
 
cupid_stunt said:
I hope they can reach the ships offshore that have been firing endless missiles into Ukraine, sink a couple of them & the rest would soon withdraw.
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A global hawk has been showing itself over the black sea today, which it hasnt done for over a month that I know of in fact no ISR assets have shown there since before the actual invasion.(doesnt mean it hasnt been there but today it was saying look at me here I am)
Its Overt use again is a bit of a sign of shifting focus to me
 
_Russ_ said:
A global hawk has been showing itself over the black sea today, which it hasnt done for over a month that I know of in fact no ISR assets have shown there since before the actual invasion.(doesnt mean it hasnt been there but today it was saying look at me here I am)
Its Overt use again is a bit of a sign of shifting focus to me
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Excellently gnomic :cool:

What does it mean?
 
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