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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

The response from Crimea:
www.jpost.com

Russian-controlled Crimea orders law to ban Ukrainian Orthodox Church

Crimea head Sergei Aksyonov also said that he ordered lawmakers to draft a law that would nationalize all property in Crimea belonging to Ukrainian oligarchs.
www.jpost.com www.jpost.com
The head of Russian-controlled Crimea Sergei Aksyonov instructed lawmakers to draft a law banning the Ukrainian Orthodox Church in the Black Sea peninsula, Russian state news agency TASS reported Wednesday, citing Aksyonov's official Telegram channel.

The banning of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church reflects the ongoing tensions between it and the Russian Orthodox Church.

Until 2018, the Ukrainian Orthodox Church was officially part of the Russian Orthodox Church.
Click to expand...

eta: some background on the split in Orthodoxy
www.irishtimes.com

Lara Marlowe: Ukraine war creates dramatic schism in Orthodox church

‘I want us to leave the Moscow church. It is over,’ head of Lviv monastery says
www.irishtimes.com www.irishtimes.com

Also this report from 2018
abcnews.go.com

Russian Orthodox church splits with Orthodoxy's leader in seismic rift over Ukraine

The split comes after Ukraine's church was recognised independent of Moscow
abcnews.go.com abcnews.go.com
 
Last edited:
Kaka Tim said:
As Ukraine war enters new phase, can western arms turn the tide?

Article speculating about what weapons NATO may send now that the war is going to be focused on the eastern region - theres a good chance that Ukraine can hold its own against further Russian assaults - but will NATO provide the sort of kit that will allow Ukraine to go on the offensive to try and push the Russian's back (and maybe carry on into Crimea?). The emerging reports of atrocities add another factor - ceasefire to stop the slaughter ? or save the people at risk of massacre and deportation in the occupied areas? And the fear of "provoking putin" is in the mix as well - but provoking him to do what? short of launching nukes - what can he realistically do? NATO forces would easily come out on top in any escalation - i.e strikes on supply routes into urkaine from poland - and would give a green light for nato to send in stuff like high end tanks, missile systems and aircraft.
Lots of tricky stategic shit to deal with ranging between a push Ukarine into a ceasefire that ends up partitioning the country - or call putin's bluff.
Click to expand...
I feel like a real change in Moscow could happen if, for instance, they see their army eliminated in Crimea. This would be unspinnable in Russian state media. It would be an all out failure by Putin. And this could very well happen eventually. NATO has to remain committed. Things have not gone well for Russia. They're being forced to defend their 2014 grabs and now the land bridge. I don't know if they can do it and I don't think they're confident either. The war in the east won't be like the last 8 years when the Ukrainains were given blankets.
 
frogwoman said:
According to some reports I've read this might have been done by Georgian foreign fighters who formed a volunteer battalion, the 'Georgian Legion' after 2014 to fight in Ukraine. For all the banging on about Azov etc there has been surprisingly little discussion of them! This might be bollocks of course but would be totally unsurprising if true, foreign fighters were responsible for an escalation of brutality on both sides of the syrian conflict as well.
Click to expand...

From the NYT:

Their unit is unclear, but in the video of the killing, one of the men refers to some of them as “Belgravia lads,” likely referring to a housing development called Belgravia located a few hundred yards from the incident.

A Ukrainian news agency that posted a video of the aftermath of the ambush on March 30 described it as the work of the “Georgian Legion,” a paramilitary unit of Georgian volunteers that formed to fight on behalf of Ukraine in 2014.

Fully agree with existentialist's post above, though it's easy to see why Bucha residents would have found it difficult to exercise restraint.
 
Not surprising with some of the Russian diaspora in Israel sadly, a lot vote for hard right parties (Avigdor Lieberman had a big base among the Russian and FSU community - though the community also includes Ukrainians etc who tend to be lumped in as 'Russians' with reporting on this stuff in the west). Even more liberal people I met in Russia sometimes had very hard line views on the Israeli Palestinian conflict that would be regarded as right wing in the UK Jewish community.

Israel also has a lot of anti vaxxers, don't know what the crossover with this is though.
 
The39thStep said:
Not the best PR from Ukraine bearing in mind Greece's history with fascism

www.ekathimerini.com

Main opposition reacts to Azov fighter presence in Zelenskyy teleconference | eKathimerini.com

Greece’s main opposition SYRIZA reacted on Thursday to the inclusion of a Ukrainian man who said he was fighting with the far-right Azov Battalion during an address by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to the Greek Parliament via teleconference.
www.ekathimerini.com www.ekathimerini.com
Click to expand...

A point raised on this, still excellent, thread about Ukranian vs Russian nationalism.

 
Definitely agree with that although I'm not 100% sure whether Russia can truly be called a fascist state (yet) tbh, theres some differences with the fascist regimes of the 20th century, tho that difference is probably academic if you're being 'denazified' and I think it's certainly moving closer to that direction

I'm just not 100% sure how useful it is though, like I wouldn't have called ISIS fascist - that's not to say that the regime wasn't/isn't horrific
 
Latest episode of the Ukraine Without Hype podcast, talking about the latest situation, Orban's re-election, comparisons with Syria, the definition of genocide etc.

 
Indeliblelink said:
German intelligence intercepted Russian military radio messages talking about civilian killings in Bucha. Evidence of Russian mercenary troops such as the "Wagner Group" involvement.




www.spiegel.de

(S+) Russische Soldaten besprachen Gräueltaten gegen Zivilisten über Funk

Die Bilder von ermordeten Zivilisten aus Butscha schockieren die Welt. Nach SPIEGEL-Informationen hat der BND Funkverkehr mutmaßlicher Täter mitgeschnitten. Demnach gehören die brutalen Taten zur Strategie von Putins Armee.
www.spiegel.de www.spiegel.de

partial translation from the paywalled Spiegel article
Click to expand...


English version Speigel article:

Possible Evidence of Russian Atrocities: German Intelligence Intercepts Radio Traffic Discussing the Murder of Civilians in Bucha
 
Steps being taken towards giving Finland NATO membership.



www.iltalehti.fi

Ulkoministeri Pekka Haavisto vahvistaa: Nato on valmis ottamaan Suomen hakemuksen vastaan

Naton jäsenmaat ovat Suomen ulkoministerin mukaan esittäneet tarjouksia turvasta jäsenhakemuksen käsittelyn ajaksi.
www.iltalehti.fi www.iltalehti.fi
Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto has met with Foreign Ministers of NATO member countries and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.

According to Haavisto, the Finnish Defense League is ready to accept Finland's membership application.


- An important NATO summit in Madrid is coming in June. Of course, NATO is asking whether the membership applications of Finland and possibly Sweden have been submitted before, Haavisto answers Iltalehti's question.

Haavisto says that NATO is also preparing the agenda for the meeting on the basis that Finland has submitted its application to the Defense League during the spring.

- It seems that NATO is ready to apply for membership here, Haavisto confirms to IL.

At his press conference, Haavisto says that various NATO countries have submitted offers to Finland on security guarantees during the membership process.

- Another issue that came up is the question of many and the idea that if you apply for NATO membership, it will take some months before all 30 NATO countries, Finland and possibly Sweden, have accepted it.

- What kind of security assistance do you need during that period? This question is asked very actively, ie as if to help and support, offering both diplomatic and security assistance, Haavisto says.

Haavisto does not want to mention the names of the countries separately, but specifies that it is the large member states of NATO.

It is estimated that the membership process would take some months for Finland.

- Estimates vary between four months and one year.
Click to expand...

www.iltalehti.fi

IL:n tiedot: Suomi valmistautuu hakemaan Nato-jäsenyyttä TP-Utvan antamalla lisäkirjauksella

Lisäkirjaus on lyhyt, ja siinä kerrotaan ainoastaan se, että valtiojohto on päättänyt hakea Nato-jäsenyyttä.
www.iltalehti.fi www.iltalehti.fi

The government of Prime Minister Sanna Marin (sd) will publish a supplement to its foreign and security policy report on Maundy Thursday, 14 April.

Parliamentary committees will begin discussing it after Easter. The supplement does not directly express the NATO position of the Finnish state leadership.


According to Iltalehti , Finland is preparing to apply for NATO membership through an additional registration, which may be reported by the Committee on Foreign and Security Policy (TP-Utva) of the President of the Republic and the Government during parliamentary proceedings.

TP-Utva can therefore hold a meeting chaired by President of the Republic Sauli Niinistö and Prime Minister Marin, at which Niinistö and Marin apply for NATO membership.

The additional entry is brief and only states that the state leadership has decided to apply for NATO membership.

The decision to be made at TP-Utva will be preceded by a announcement to Niinistö and Marin by a working group consisting of party leaders and chairmen of parliamentary groups that there is a strong parliamentary majority in favor of NATO membership.

Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto (Green) confirms Iltalehti 's announcement that, if necessary, there will be a readiness to prepare a second report if TP-Utva were to propose NATO membership, and to submit an addendum containing the NATO position to Parliament.

A decision will be made soon​

IL sources estimate that a decision will be made in TP-Utva to apply for NATO membership during the first two weeks of May.

However, the decision route built by the government, the president of the republic, party leaders and the parliamentary bureau will allow TP-Utva to make a decision on additional registration, ie applying for NATO membership, even before May Day, during April.

The work of the working group consisting of party leaders is led by the Speaker of Parliament Matti Vanhanen (center).

After TP-Utva has published an additional entry, the state leadership will forward information to NATO headquarters in Brussels that Finland would like to join the Defense League.

The United States is monitoring ratification​

Accession to NATO is by invitation and Article 10 of the North Atlantic Treaty, done at Washington in April 1949, applies.


The IL has asked the Ministry for Foreign Affairs' Unit for EU and Treaty Law how Finland's accession to NATO would take place in practice.

- The accession process starts with the candidate country notifying NATO of its intention to join NATO, after which NATO invites the candidate country to join. All (current) NATO member states are required to sign and ratify the accession protocol of the applicant country in accordance with their national procedures and to deposit the instruments of ratification with the United States Government, the Depositary of the North Atlantic Treaty. The depositary's duties generally include the depositary informing the parties to the agreement in question of the notifications made to it, says Laura Peuraniemi , deputy head of unit, Legislative Secretary.

The role of the United States is therefore central to the ratification phase of membership, which President Niinistö has emphasized in an interview with IL .

According to Niinistö, the U.S. diplomatic word weighs heavily on NATO because the deterrent deterrence relies heavily on American forces and American weapons.

- It will then be linked to the ratification phase. Certainly, he is assessing the impact of the will of the United States.

The influence of the United States is significantly increased by the fact that the country collects decisions on the ratification of Finland's membership from other NATO member states.

If a country were to delay ratification, the United States would raise the issue in bilateral relations between the United States and that country, according to IL.

Finally, NATO invites you to become a member​

The Finnish Parliament will only vote on NATO membership at the very end.

For this reason, a separate working group of party leaders has now been set up to make a NATO application, signaling to the state leadership that a solid majority of parliamentary parties and members of parliament support the application for membership.

The actual decision to apply is made by TP-Utva with an additional report.

Final accession will take place after the ratification round by invitation.
Click to expand...
 
Indeliblelink said:
There's also a video going around of Ukrainian soldiers executing captured Russians.
Click to expand...

BBC picking this up now.
www.bbc.co.uk

Video appears to show killing of captive Russian soldier

A video has emerged which purports to show Ukrainian forces shooting a captive Russian soldier.
www.bbc.co.uk
More evidence of the Georgian link
We have tried to biometrically match this face - a process where a computer algorithm compares an image to a database of photos of people's faces. The match is to a Georgian man with close links to Ukraine, but we are not naming him as we have not confirmed his identity.
As the camera pans towards the man with the beard, another person shouts "Glory to Ukraine", to which the man with a beard responds "Glory to heroes". The first person then shouts in an excited way - although the audio is not clear - what sounds like the word "Gruziny" which means Georgians in Russian
Click to expand...
 
frogwoman said:
Definitely agree with that although I'm not 100% sure whether Russia can truly be called a fascist state (yet) tbh, theres some differences with the fascist regimes of the 20th century, tho that difference is probably academic if you're being 'denazified' and I think it's certainly moving closer to that direction

I'm just not 100% sure how useful it is though, like I wouldn't have called ISIS fascist - that's not to say that the regime wasn't/isn't horrific
Click to expand...
Reminds me of the oft-misattributed quote that 'when fascism comes to America, it will call itself antifascism'. I think this idea applies well to Russia. Any 'fascism' is bound to make explicit appeals to the spirit of WW2 and antifascism. Putin's Russia may not fit with more technical definitions, but it carries a fascist spirit within it for sure.
 
I thought there was a quote about 'when fascism comes to America it will be wrapped in the flag and carrying a cross' - which definitely applies to Russia as well.

I thought it was interesting a post on twitter saying that during the Soviet times Victory Day parades on May 9th (celebrating the defeat over Nazism) had only been held 3 times apparently - but in today's Russia they have been held every year since 1995. However, I'm not 100% about the accuracy of this and think the same also applies to some other countries- Moldova also had 9th May celebrations when I was there
 
Yep, that's another one that flies around. And yep, that also applies.

And it also wasn't said by any of the people it's usually attributed to - Huey Long, Sinclair Lewis, etc.
 
AnnO'Neemus said:
The thought crossed my mind that they might have consumed too much local hooch. I mean, farming seems to be big, there's a big a grain agriculture economy, maybe lots of people make their own and the Russian found it and drank it? They've been looting pretty much everything not screwed down, so nicking and necking booze they found seems plausible, and if they've been drinking spirits, possibly including home-made hooch of unknown strength, they could've given themselves alcohol poisoning.
Click to expand...


Methanol rather than enthanol . I’m sure the still owner was happy to let them fill their boots with the pre cut batch. Lots of plums and shit in local moonshine means higher methanol. Glug glug glug
 
Only skim read the last few bits but am a bit bewildered by the talk of "It was the Georgians/Chechens" etc. Does brutality have a nationality? Does it really matter what their passport would be?

It's a line not too dissimilar to 'outsiders came on to this demo to cause trouble'. Look over there etc.
 
I'm not saying that to excuse them or to say that Ukrainian soldiers couldn't/aren't doing the same thing but to point out things get (even more) grim when foreign fighters are involved

The impact of foreign fighters on human rights



46. Foreign fighters often contribute to the adoption of more radical methods of warfare, encouraging the targeting of civilians or fostering sectarian violence. With limited connections to the local population, foreign fighters may be more brutal, as has been seen repeatedly in the Syrian Arab Republic and Iraq. The acts of foreign fighters may amount to gross human rights violations, war crimes and crimes against humanity or genocide. Ensuring the accountability of foreign fighters involved in such abuses and crimes is critical. Whenever possible, the States of nationality or permanent residency should effectively investigate and prosecute foreign fighters involved in such acts.
Click to expand...


This study found that the more foreign fighters are involved, violence against civilians goes up: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0022343318804594
 
In Russia as a rule of thumb, the darker or more obviously not Slav you are makes a massive difference to how you are treated. The meme of southern republics / caucuses types being bloodthirsty criminals is pretty standard opinion
 
The39thStep said:
Not the best PR from Ukraine bearing in mind Greece's history with fascism

www.ekathimerini.com

Main opposition reacts to Azov fighter presence in Zelenskyy teleconference | eKathimerini.com

Greece’s main opposition SYRIZA reacted on Thursday to the inclusion of a Ukrainian man who said he was fighting with the far-right Azov Battalion during an address by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to the Greek Parliament via teleconference.
www.ekathimerini.com www.ekathimerini.com
Click to expand...



A follow up thread:
 
planetgeli said:
Only skim read the last few bits but am a bit bewildered by the talk of "It was the Georgians/Chechens" etc. Does brutality have a nationality? Does it really matter what their passport would be?

It's a line not too dissimilar to 'outsiders came on to this demo to cause trouble'. Look over there etc.
Click to expand...
I thought the distinction was over troops that aren't main line army. Volunteers would be harder to control. That was actually a Russian concern in Crimea in 2014 within their own forces. On that subject, I doubt Ukraine's military polices' ability to police the military.
 
The irony is that Greek nationalism is massively pro Russian and pro Serb with the stuff about 'Orthodox Brothers' etc
 
zahir said:



A follow up thread:
Click to expand...

Yup. From all accounts, Zelensky's speech went down well, it was the Azov speakers that caused controversy. Saw an exchange on Twitter which went something like 'We stand with Ukraine not Azov' and then replies saying 'If you stand with Ukraine you have to stand with Azov' but I wasn't sure whether they came from posters supporting Ukraine or not.
 
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