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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

belboid said:
There’s also the fact that many/most/all of these countries find it completely hypocritical considering how no such actions were taken against the US/UK etc for Iraq, Afghanistan etc etc. Africans and Asians can be slaughtered by the thousand and all there is is finger wagging.
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Yep there's definitely a bit of a global backlash going on against the previous foreign policy choices of the UK and the US in particular but then as a populous that's what brought us all out in to the streets when our governments behaved in that way. Vlad's well planned control over such dissent reminds me of a much earlier time in history.
 
frogwoman said:
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Russia has their shit together a bit more in the east. Attempting to take Kyiv was a fuck up and their supply lines got raided frequently and got worn down without supply and support. I fear the eastern front won’t be vulnerable to this as they already have territory secured, they are currently fighting with air support and will be better able to focus on one fight.

All the criticisms thrown at them for the first part of the war seem less valid, they have changed tactics and learnt from errors. They’re employing drones more to guide artillery, something Ukraine had been very good at. They are running combined operations (land and air working in tandem). Social media is being used to celebrate successful attacks and boost morale. Supply lines are secure, and they‘ve been busy destroying Ukrainian fuel depots and transport infrastructure with long range missiles to make it hard for Ukraine to bring in supplies and reinforcements. It’ll be a tough fight.

Against this, Ukraine is getting more sophisticated weaponry including loitering munitions, which combined with good intelligence might allow stealthy strikes on high-end targets (command, air defences, supply depots etc.).
 
frogwoman said:
samf.substack.com

The Problem with the Donbas

Igor Girkin, aka Strelkov, delivers a press conference on 28 July 2014 in Donetsk. (Source: BULENT KILIC/AFP via Getty Images) In 2014 Igor Girkin, aka ‘Strelkov’ (the shooter), became the face of the rebellion in Ukraine’s Donbas region against the new government in Kyiv. He was not actually...
samf.substack.com samf.substack.com

Interesting article about opposition to Putin from nationalists, some of whom are even worse than Putin.
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Interesting article. Thanks. I think I read, probably from here actually. Putin is actually being pressured from Moore right wing nationalists. And having to politically deal with that pressure at home. .
 
I mean I know that’s what that article says. But I have read other articles along the same line. referencing before this invasion. What a pickle indeed.
 
bluescreen said:
Yes, they are tooled up.

ETA link is to a long FT article "War with Russia? Finland has a plan for that"
Very impressive preppers.
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They've definitely got things sorted!

At least six months of all major fuels and grains sit in strategic stockpiles, while pharmaceutical companies are obliged to have 3-10 months’ worth of all imported drugs on hand.
It has civilian defences. All buildings above a certain size have to have their own bomb shelters, and the rest of the population can use underground car parks, ice rinks, and swimming pools which stand ready to be converted into evacuation centres.
And it has fighters. Almost a third of the adult population of the Nordic country is a reservist, meaning Finland can draw on one of the biggest militaries relative to its size in Europe.
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dilute micro said:
I feel like a real change in Moscow could happen if, for instance, they see their army eliminated in Crimea. This would be unspinnable in Russian state media. It would be an all out failure by Putin. And this could very well happen eventually. NATO has to remain committed. Things have not gone well for Russia. They're being forced to defend their 2014 grabs and now the land bridge. I don't know if they can do it and I don't think they're confident either. The war in the east won't be like the last 8 years when the Ukrainains were given blankets.
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Whatever happens, the Ukrainian military are unlikely to invade or be capable of invading Crimea, the population of which would probably not particularly welcome being reintegrated into the Ukrainian state. It doesn't have strong cultural links with the rest of 'Ukraine to which it was only joined in 1954 before which it was considered part of Russia.
 
tim said:
the population of which would probably not particularly welcome being reintegrated into the Ukrainian state. It doesn't have strong cultural links with the rest of 'Ukraine to which it was only joined in 1954 before which it was considered part of Russia.
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I can see there being more interest in reintegration in maybe 10 years when Ukraine's thriving in the EU and Russia is still struggling to get back to where it was before sanctions.
 
Yossarian said:
I can see there being more interest in reintegration in maybe 10 years when Ukraine's thriving in the EU and Russia is still struggling to get back to where it was before sanctions.
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We can all fantasize about what might happen in the future. Ukraine might be in the EU, but EU membership doesn't guarantee prosperity, as can be seen in Bulgaria and Romania, although it does make emigration easier. Ukraine is a relatively poor country with a large population. It will emerge from this war poorer than it is now with its infrastructure degraded and is unlikely to be the beneficiary of much help in rebuilding. It's easy to promise help and easy to forget those promises.

As to Russia, as long as it has an abundance of natural resources that others want to buy, it is unlikely to remain in the doghouse for too long.
 
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Dogsauce said:
Russia has their shit together a bit more in the east. Attempting to take Kyiv was a fuck up and their supply lines got raided frequently and got worn down without supply and support. I fear the eastern front won’t be vulnerable to this as they already have territory secured, they are currently fighting with air support and will be better able to focus on one fight.

All the criticisms thrown at them for the first part of the war seem less valid, they have changed tactics and learnt from errors. They’re employing drones more to guide artillery, something Ukraine had been very good at. They are running combined operations (land and air working in tandem). Social media is being used to celebrate successful attacks and boost morale. Supply lines are secure, and they‘ve been busy destroying Ukrainian fuel depots and transport infrastructure with long range missiles to make it hard for Ukraine to bring in supplies and reinforcements. It’ll be a tough fight.

Against this, Ukraine is getting more sophisticated weaponry including loitering munitions, which combined with good intelligence might allow stealthy strikes on high-end targets (command, air defences, supply depots etc.).
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Russia's been fighting in the east for many years so they'll be more adjusted than what we've seen. They're still getting repelled though. How much weapon support the Ukrainians get will make the difference. Ex-general Petraeus has called the loitering anti-tank switchblades a "game-changer" weapon. I hope so. This is its first real test. They haven't given many to the Ukrainians yet.


edited to make sense
 
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maomao said:
Xinjiang food is big in Beijing. And dare I say Indian food is big in the UK. Ownership of the culture is part of the process.
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Yeah, true. When I was still fairly new to Beijing, I was walking down Wangfujing one time with a Chinese buddy/colleague and remarked to him along the lines of what's a European-ish looking dude doing selling street food from a stall? Street food vendor not being a usual job for foreign migrants ('ex pats'), and he explained the guy was from Xinjiang, when I'd thought he looked Turkish.

And you used to get Turkish looking Xinjiang yangrou kebab sellers on Sanlitun Nan Lu 'south bar street'.
 
frogwoman said:
There's a significant minority of people in Crimea who are happy to be part of Ukraine - the descendants of Crimean Tatars deported in 1944 who have suffered increased levels of police violence and repression since the annexation
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I would imagine in an ideal world, they 'drather live in an independent Crimea rather than either of the other options but as deportation and genocide means that they are no longer a majority and now constitute just 15% of the population, that's unlikely to happen in the near future.

Do you think that the Ukrainian military is any more capable of recapturing Crimea than the Russians have been of capturing Kyiv? Do you think many Crimeans would relish the prospect of such a liberation, even if it were possible?
 
tim said:
I would imagine in an ideal world, they 'drather live in an independent Crimea rather than either of the other options but as deportation and genocide means that they are no longer a majority and now constitute just 15% of the population, that's unlikely to happen in the near future.

Do you think that the Ukrainian military is any more capable of recapturing Crimea than the Russians have been of capturing Kyiv? Do you think many Crimeans would relish the prospect of such a liberation, even if it were possible?
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I don’t think they can retake Crimea no.
 
I find a lot of the armchair generalling here both glib and grim. Too many people have died already and I can't believe that either the Russia or the Ukraine that emerge from the war will be good places to live, particularly if you can't tick all the cultural or ethnicity boxes to which model citizens will be expected to conform.
 
frogwoman said:
I don’t think they can retake Crimea no.
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If they had their ducks in a row? Their priority is Donbass and the land bridge for sure. That will be a long fight. If the fighting continues on for years, meaning Ukraine hasn't called it quits, it's possible I think. Russia has yet to feel the pain of sanctions. And they're likely to be renewed.
 
dilute micro said:
If they had their ducks in a row? Their priority is Donbass and the land bridge for sure. That will be a long fight. If the fighting continues on for years, meaning Ukraine hasn't called it quits, it's possible I think. Russia has yet to feel the pain of sanctions. And they're likely to be renewed.
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You seem to see this war as a board game.
 
tim said:
You seem to see this war as a board game.
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If people truly understood how much depends on Ukraine winning the fight and not funny pics on a meme thread or somebody holding a blue and yellow sign somewhere it might excuse the last 7 or so years when they couldn't be bothered. Save your fights for someone else.
 
Nato members have decided to send heavy weapons. There's little detail, and the UK papers' reporting of it is uneven. But some long ange artillery looks probable, plus the tanks already promised by the Czechs. The Ukraine defence minister has been on Salisbury Plain today to watch weapons demos. UK Defence Ministers host Ukrainian government to plan future military aid Perhaps if enough long range artillery is supplied, the armies will kill at a distance and there'll be less of the torturing people for days on end and using them as a toilet. Perhaps Ukraine can even drive the Russians out. But what will Putin do next?

Chomsky says "We are now facing the prospect of destruction of organised human life on Earth.” Noam Chomsky: “We’re approaching the most dangerous point in human history”
 
Very real possibility that Ukraine is going to get mullered now that Russia is focusing solely on the Donbass, that will solve a lot of the issues with supply and that fronts been a lot more competently executed. It's also possible this is going to be a long grinding war which also doesn't exactly favour Ukraine

So all this talk of Ukraine taking the Crimea by Christmas is a bit optimistic. All we can do is watch this horror play out and give support where we can
 
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