Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[scooter]

Ukraine war: Russia says there has been 'substantial progress' in peace talks and 'joint position' could be reached soon

The possible breakthrough comes after Ukrainian negotiator and presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak also said he thought progress could be made in the talks with Russia in a "matter of days".

news.sky.com

 

[UnderOpenSky]

it is insane that some of them cruise missiles are apparently 'worth' one million dollars each. how can that even be possible? they're a metal tube thing with explosives inside how hard can it be.

Better to think of them as single use aircraft with a one way mission and the numbers start to make sense.

 

[AnnO'Neemus]

Could have broken the contract and told them to fuck off...and not paid.

Ingesting but who would enforce those contracts outside Russia? Pretty sure if a government earned to void a contract with a Russian company they could do it without paying a penalty at the moment.

I'm guessing contracts signed that are bound by the laws of England and Wales.

Such agreements might or might not have clauses that stipulate in the even of disputes the parties would participate in legally binding international arbitration.

I'm guessing that in the event of cancellation of the agreement and non-payment of any stipulated penalty fee, that the Russian gas company would be able to pursue the debt through English courts, which could potentially result in bailiffs turning up at company premises to seize goods up to the value of the debt, alternatively the Russian company could apply for a winding up order and potentially put the company into administration if it didn't have sufficient funds to pay the debt.

So, basically, it's not possible to just cancel the contract and say fuck off, you're not getting your money. There are legal avenues that a Russian gas company could use to pursue the debt.

And just off the top of my head, I'm sure people with better knowledge of law/finance could think of more reasons why it's not that simple. (Unless the government passed a law that was retroactive to facilitate that kind of thing?)

Big companies, especially those that operate internationally, don't really want to start setting precedents of big multinational companies screwing one another over, lest the whole system collapse in a hot mess of contract cancellations, non-payment of penalty fees, fuck yous, law suits, international arbitrations, companies going to the wall, etc.

 

[AnnO'Neemus]

Dale Vince OBE, always comes across as a dodgy self-serving shite.

I thought his claim to virtue was that he only sold green electricity, so why is he buying gas from Russia at all?

No idea. I don't work for them, have no indepth knowledge of their operations, was just relaying info I'd come across.

 

[emanymton]

I'm guessing contracts signed that are bound by the laws of England and Wales.

Such agreements might or might not have clauses that stipulate in the even of disputes the parties would participate in legally binding international arbitration.

I'm guessing that in the event of cancellation of the agreement and non-payment of any stipulated penalty fee, that the Russian gas company would be able to pursue the debt through English courts, which could potentially result in bailiffs turning up at company premises to seize goods up to the value of the debt, alternatively the Russian company could apply for a winding up order and potentially put the company into administration if it didn't have sufficient funds to pay the debt.

So, basically, it's not possible to just cancel the contract and say fuck off, you're not getting your money. There are legal avenues that a Russian gas company could use to pursue the debt.

And just off the top of my head, I'm sure people with better knowledge of law/finance could think of more reasons why it's not that simple. (Unless the government passed a law that was retroactive to facilitate that kind of thing?)

Big companies, especially those that operate internationally, don't really want to start setting precedents of big multinational companies screwing one another over, lest the whole system collapse in a hot mess of contract cancellations, non-payment of penalty fees, fuck yous, law suits, international arbitrations, companies going to the wall, etc.

Sanctions supercede the contract though. Pass a law making it illegal to make the payment and there's no recourse for breach if contract. These are the governments we are talking about, the people who make the laws.

 

[AnnO'Neemus]

Ingesting but who would enforce those contracts outside Russia? Pretty sure if a government earned to void a contract with a Russian company they could do it without paying a penalty at the moment.

I'm guessing the Royal Courts of Justice or an international arbitration hearing in London. And then off the back of a ruling, court order, debt recovery, bailiffs, asset seizure, fucking up the company's credit rating, maybe issuing a winding up order and trying to put the delinquent debtor company into administration.

Maybe at some point such business dealings will be the subject of sanctions and it becomes a moot point? But unless and until that happens, I'm guessing such contracts and any clauses about penalty fees would still be enforceable.

 

[AnnO'Neemus]

Sanctions supercede the contract though. Pass a law making it illegal to make the payment and there's no recourse for breach if contract. These are the governments we are talking about, the people who make the laws.

I was in the middle of typing up my response to your previous post when posted this. I agree that it's a matter of legislation/sanctions, it's not down to any individual company to just say fuck you, we're not paying.

Well, they could say that, but they could be pursued for the debt (unless and until legislation/sanctions kick in). Of course, there's another option in that a company might make a business decision to cancel the contract and pay the penalty.

 

[Raheem]

Where there's sanctions, there's work for lawyers.

 

[A380]

I'm guessing contracts signed that are bound by the laws of England and Wales.

Such agreements might or might not have clauses that stipulate in the even of disputes the parties would participate in legally binding international arbitration.

I'm guessing that in the event of cancellation of the agreement and non-payment of any stipulated penalty fee, that the Russian gas company would be able to pursue the debt through English courts, which could potentially result in bailiffs turning up at company premises to seize goods up to the value of the debt, alternatively the Russian company could apply for a winding up order and potentially put the company into administration if it didn't have sufficient funds to pay the debt.

So, basically, it's not possible to just cancel the contract and say fuck off, you're not getting your money. There are legal avenues that a Russian gas company could use to pursue the debt.

And just off the top of my head, I'm sure people with better knowledge of law/finance could think of more reasons why it's not that simple. (Unless the government passed a law that was retroactive to facilitate that kind of thing?)

Big companies, especially those that operate internationally, don't really want to start setting precedents of big multinational companies screwing one another over, lest the whole system collapse in a hot mess of contract cancellations, non-payment of penalty fees, fuck yous, law suits, international arbitrations, companies going to the wall, etc.

It’s the rule of law innit. Which everyone rolls their eyes at as a stuffy, probably bourgeois concept. Till you see places that have even less than us. Like Russia…

 

[Pickman's model]

Today’s Sparta has massively overwhelming numbers on Thebes. Thebes will put up a spirited resistance and if occupied by Sparta will most likely continue to resist in a violent fashion that will make Sparta’s rule an unhappy one. Sadly Russia will crush Ukraine, but the victory will be hollow in the extreme as it will come at the expense of a huge number of lives lost on either side for absolutely no gain whatsoever. In Sparta they are still telling Spartans that they are not at war with Thebes ffs.

We have always been at war with Eurasia

 

[rubbershoes]

Where there's sanctions, there's work for lawyers.

You say that like it's a bad thing

 

[AnnO'Neemus]

It’s the rule of law innit. Which everyone rolls their eyes at as a stuffy, probably bourgeois concept. Till you see places that have even less than us. Like Russia…

Thems the rules. I don't make them. Except I sort of did, in that when I worked as a legal PA I used to create the legal agreements for mergers and acquisitions and type up and amend all the small print with all those kinds of clauses about jurisdiction in the event of disputes and agreements to enter into legally binding arbitration, etc. So I know it's not easy to cancel a contract and just walk away and stop paying and hope there will be no repercussions.

And then when I worked as a legal editor, editing court and arbitration transcripts I got to see some of what happened after the business relationships had broken down too.

Yes, it's a bonanza for the lawyers, they're the only people who win in that kind of scenario.

 

[A380]

This is a pretty good primer on air superiority issues in general and then specifically on the differences between the Russian and Nato capabilities. it also has a short section on why NATO enforcement of a no fly zone over Ukraine could be a bad idea.

Ignore the guy's accent it gets less annoying after 30/45 seconds. the video is 13 minutes long. But if you are new to the concepts and want something high level this is pretty good.

 

[zahir]

Life under occupation.

Tanks, bombs, shootings: Ukrainians describe Russian takeover of villages

Witnesses describe soldiers shooting people dead in the street and confiscating phones and laptops

www.theguardian.com

 

[Raheem]

You say that like it's a bad thing

Not at all. You just can't see my jazz hands.

 

[existentialist]

it is insane that some of them cruise missiles are apparently 'worth' one million dollars each. how can that even be possible? they're a metal tube thing with explosives inside how hard can it be.

Explosives are the least of it. There's a lot of tech inside those things, and it's not like you can just code something up on a Raspberry Pi and flick it in there. My inner geek has always against the waste of beautiful IT kit being blown up in a one-use explosion

 

[editor]

You may find the article I posted earlier as an alternative take that may give another perspective.

Social Psychology Provides Insights for Defusing the Ukraine Crisis

A psychological approach to containing the Ukraine crisis.

www.psychologytoday.com

Posting once is more than enough, thanks.

 

[hitmouse]

anyway why haven-t all the russian oligarch mansions in london been looted/burned down yet?

Well, this is a start:

 

[Chilli.s]

So, basically, it's not possible to just cancel the contract and say fuck off, you're not getting your money. There are legal avenues that a Russian gas company could use to pursue the debt.

See this is what annoys me, the threat of nuclear war, yet there's no economic nuclear option. Unfortunately just proof of how finance is all powerful and worth more than human life, the planet, everything.

 

[Pickman's model]

See this is what annoys me, the threat of nuclear war, yet there's no economic nuclear option. Unfortunately just proof of how finance is all powerful and worth more than human life, the planet, everything.

melt down a load of 5p's and pour the molten metal down the throats of recalcitrant financiers. after the first few i think you'd find a lot of them recanting their former beliefs

 

[MickiQ]

Well, this is a start:

I don't think Plod will do anything unless the actual owner complains so I suspect these jokers will be there for quite some time bringing down property values in the neighbourhood.

 

[A380]

What’s the word for ‘Irony’ in Gaelic?
( By now I think everyone will have seen that the car the Guards sent to cover the gate was in blue and yellow Battenburg livery- I’m not sure if all there cars are like that now or if someone was able to do that deliberately…)

 

[hitmouse]

What’s the word for ‘Irony’ in Gaelic?

I bet you could do a good international compilation of these:

Even with my fairly limited foreign language skills I can work out what "Eine barbarische Aktion" means, I did also enjoy learning that embassies are called Botschaft in German, hence the unfortunate abbreviated twitter name of RusBotWien.

 

[zahir]

I don't think Plod will do anything unless the actual owner complains so I suspect these jokers will be there for quite some time bringing down property values in the neighbourhood.

Presumably it would also need lawyers willing to be seen to be acting for the owner and confident enough that they will be able to collect their fees.

 

[RainbowTown]

Ukraine war: Pregnant woman and baby die after hospital shelled

The woman, seen in a widely shared image after a maternity hospital was hit, dies along with her baby.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[A380]

Any views (speculation) on what would happen if a Russian aircraft crossed into Polish airspace at the moment? Would Nato fighters just chivy it back over the boarder as in 'normal' times, or would there be a risk of it being shot down because of the posturing and threats by Russia to strike materiel over the border?

 

[Pickman's model]

Any views (speculation) on what would happen if a Russian aircraft crossed into Polish airspace at the moment? Would Nato fighters just chivy it back over the boarder as in normal times, or would there be a risk of it being shot down because of the posturing threats by Russia to strike materiel over the border?

what's wrong with the speculation thread?

 

[A380]

what's wrong with the speculation thread?

It doesn't have a public poll...

 

[AnnO'Neemus]

I don't think Plod will do anything unless the actual owner complains so I suspect these jokers will be there for quite some time bringing down property values in the neighbourhood.

Plod could take action, still might, because squatting in residential properties is now criminal (squatting in commercial properties remains a civil law dispute).

 

[RedRedRose]

Activists occupy luxury Biarritz villa owned by Putin’s ex-son-in-law

ETA: In a similar vein; more action against oligarchs.