Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[dilute micro]

i found this thread helpful, it's directed at people like me.



But I have a question:
If, as does seem to be the case, Putin is doing a lot of work to try to ramp things up & goad NATO into some kind of response (like with the 'your weapons convoys are now a legit target' thing), why is he doing that, what for?

I mean he doesn't actually want a war with nato (& if he does then he could just make it happen) so why as that man puts it do we have to resist "Putin's attempts to inflict the burden of escalation on us"?

Putin doesn't want a response from NATO. He think's he's working from a position of strength. He's been told over the last few years that he's got a top notch army. He wants us to be afraid to challenge him. I think the migs should have been sent to Ukraine. But I think NATO shouldn't do a no-fly zone because that is declaring war on Russia.

 

[friedaweed]

i found this thread helpful, it's directed at people like me.



But I have a question:
If, as does seem to be the case, Putin is doing a lot of work to try to ramp things up & goad NATO into some kind of response (like with the 'your weapons convoys are now a legit target' thing), why is he doing that, what for?

I mean he doesn't actually want a war with nato (& if he does then he could just make it happen) so why as that man puts it do we have to resist "Putin's attempts to inflict the burden of escalation on us"?

Because those weapons convoys will be in Ukrainian territory when they blitz the fuck out of them. So basically he's saying you can send what you want but it won't make the frontline.

Probably why he's demonstrated his cruise missile range in the area that it's most likely those weapons will come into Ukraine via. Pardon the pun but it's not rocket science.

 

[WhyLikeThis]

But I have a question:
If, as does seem to be the case, Putin is doing a lot of work to try to ramp things up & goad NATO into some kind of response (like with the 'your weapons convoys are now a legit target' thing), why is he doing that, what for?

I mean he doesn't actually want a war with nato (& if he does then he could just make it happen) so why as that man puts it do we have to resist "Putin's attempts to inflict the burden of escalation on us"?

You may find the article I posted earlier as an alternative take that may give another perspective.

Social Psychology Provides Insights for Defusing the Ukraine Crisis

A psychological approach to containing the Ukraine crisis.

www.psychologytoday.com

 

[friedaweed]

Great business opportunity! I'll accept you as a co-partner of this venture if you can come up with 50% of the start-up money.

Perhaps some sort of hire firm arrangement can be established. Sale or return. Cupid's Cruise Hire.

 

[bimble]

Because those weapons convoys will be in Ukrainian territory when they blitz the fuck out of them. So basically he's saying you can send what you want but it won't make the frontline.

Probably why he's demonstrated his cruise missile range in the area that it's most likely those weapons will come into Ukraine via. Pardon the pun but it's not rocket science.

yeah but 'i consider weapons inside Ukraine to be legit targets' isn't even worth announcing is it, it's just a fact. The tone was 'i might bomb Poland just watch out'.

 

[bimble]

Great business opportunity! I'll accept you as a co-partner of this venture if you can come up with 50% of the start-up money.

it is insane that some of them cruise missiles are apparently 'worth' one million dollars each. how can that even be possible? they're a metal tube thing with explosives inside how hard can it be.

 

[friedaweed]

The tone was 'i might bomb Poland just watch out'.

I don't see it like that. I think the biggest problem the west has had since this kicked off was they didn't send this shit early enough. Probably why Vlad has been hanging on to his best migs. It's a lot of money the west are committing on military hardware. It's costing everyone this war.

 

[Raheem]

You haven't seen silly.

 

[cupid_stunt]

If this is true, China would be daft to help the twat, their trade with the west is worth several times that with Russia.

Russia has asked China for military equipment to support its invasion of Ukraine, according to US officials, sparking concern in the White House that Beijing may undermine western efforts to help Ukrainian forces defend their country.

US officials told the Financial Times that Russia had requested military equipment and other assistance since the start of the invasion. They declined to give details about what Russia had requested.

Another person familiar with the situation said the US was preparing to warn its allies, amid some indications that China may be preparing to help Russia. Other US officials have said there were signs that Russia was running out of some kinds of weaponry as the war in Ukraine extends into its third week.

Paywall busted FT link - archive.ph

 

[nogojones]

Fascinating. You've missed the point though.

Probably. I've been out all day and I'm late to this party

 

[friedaweed]

it is insane that some of them cruise missiles are apparently 'worth' one million dollars each. how can that even be possible? they're a metal tube thing with explosives inside how hard can it be.

These are high-tech military weapons not pipe bombs. You might want to have a read about the military–industrial complex. Read some Noam Chomsky as well.

 

[platinumsage]

Read some Noam Chomsky as well.

Ooh is it 2002 again?

 

[existentialist]

Well, that counts as good news then.
Those cruise missile rockets cost hundreds of thousands of £ each I just learned, what a stupid world.

The Russian ones - Kalibr - are a lot cheaper than the American ones - a Tomahawk costs about $5m

But then, when you start looking at what a fighter plane costs, that starts looking like the kind of dosh you find down the back of a sofa.

 

[Dogsauce]

it is insane that some of them cruise missiles are apparently 'worth' one million dollars each. how can that even be possible? they're a metal tube thing with explosives inside how hard can it be.

The US ones have always been quoted at a million dollars each (since gulf war 1 I seem to recall), quite a lot of sophisticated electronics in guidance systems etc plus a massive amount on top for Boeing/Lockheed Martin or whoever. Russian ones my be cheaper as there might be less price gouging (though given the mafia state thing it’s probably worse).

They won’t be wasting them on small targets, so a large amount of death and damage is likely the result of the 800 odd lobbed in so far. Most coming from launchers in Belarus or ships off the coast, not something Ukraine can hit back at. They could probably do with a few anti-ship missiles in with all these stingers being supplied by supportive states, though I don’t think anywhere would want to make a big deal about suppling them, if something big went down with large loss of life it would get a strong response I fear.

 

[Serge Forward]

Do you think becoming a vassal state under Putin should be resisted?

Is Putin head of the EU then?

 

[bimble]

If this is true, China would be daft to help the twat, their trade with the west is worth several times that with Russia.



Paywall busted FT link - archive.ph

yep, a lot of pressure on China.
Popped in to Russian news website earlier and noticed this bit, about how half their reserves are frozen and the bit that's in Chinese currency is getting important now.
China being pressured to join in with the sanctions but minister saying
"I think that our partnership with China will allow us to maintain the cooperation that we have achieved, and not only to maintain, but also to multiply it in conditions when Western markets are closed.'

 

[wemakeyousoundb]

Is Putin head of the EU then?

didn't you know?

 

[friedaweed]

Ooh is it 2002 again?

2021

Chomsky: Outdated US Cold War Policy Worsens Ongoing Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The Noam Chomsky Website.

chomsky.info

 

[WhyLikeThis]

Is Putin head of the EU then?

Being part of a neoliberal supra-state is a slap in the face to Putin’s totalitarian red hot poker up the arse. If you see what I’m gibbering at.

 

[nogojones]

it is insane that some of them cruise missiles are apparently 'worth' one million dollars each. how can that even be possible? they're a metal tube thing with explosives inside how hard can it be.

 

[Serge Forward]

I see the gibbering

 

[cupid_stunt]

it is insane that some of them cruise missiles are apparently 'worth' one million dollars each. how can that even be possible? they're a metal tube thing with explosives inside how hard can it be.

They are a hell of a lot more than 'a metal tube thing with explosives inside', they are not just 'pipe bombs'.

 

[Diamond]

I read quite a lot of Plutarch this winter (can highly recommend Robin Waterfield's translation - Greek/Roman Lives) and there's one detail from his various accounts of Sparta over various lives that really resonates re: this Russia-Ukraine war.

The Spartans were the unparalleled military power in Greece at their height. For most of their history they maintained a paramount military principle that they would never go to war against the same neighbour in successive seasons/years.

While ascendant, the Spartans reasoned, they were a superior fighting force, however if they fought their neighbours on a frequent basis, that would simply make their neighbours fitter until they were a match to the Spartans.

This fear did, in fact, actually come to pass during the reign of Agesilaus, the last great Spartan king. To cut a long story short, Agesilaus started off with success but experienced a number of reverses that reduced Spartan power over time. The consequence of this was that the Spartans fought their neighbours much more frequently, including Thebes.

Eventually, the Thebans became fit enough to defeat the Spartans, which they did at the Battle of Leuctra in 371 BC, ending Spartan hegemony.

It strikes me that the situation in Donetsk and Luhansk since 2014 is literally the polar opposite of the Spartan principle of not warring with your neighbour too often, for fear of making them better. One detail that I heard early on set me off on this train of thought - the low-level conflict in East Ukraine, combined with national military service, has essentially trained a very large proportion of the Ukrainian population up. Those Ukrainian reservists are probably akin to the Thebans at Leuctra in 371, with Zelensky as a new Epaminondas perhaps...?

 

[contadino]

yeah but 'i consider weapons inside Ukraine to be legit targets' isn't even worth announcing is it, it's just a fact. The tone was 'i might bomb Poland just watch out'.

Yes, but he's just yanking the chain. He might threaten to bomb Bury St Edmunds, Marmande or Hasanabad too. It's pretty unlikely that he will actually do so.

He's just a little big man in the schoolyard with a baseball bat claiming that he'll batter anyone who won't let him do what he wants.

Everyone knows that someone's gonna blindside him sooner or later, take the bat and kick his arse.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

I read quite a lot of Plutarch this winter (can highly recommend Robin Waterfield's translation - Greek/Roman Lives) and there's one detail from his various accounts of Sparta over various lives that really resonates re: this Russia-Ukraine war.

The Spartans were the unparalleled military power in Greece at their height. For most of their history they maintained a paramount military principle that they would never go to war against the same neighbour in successive seasons/years.

While ascendant, the Spartans reasoned, they were a superior fighting force, however if they fought their neighbours on a frequent basis, that would simply make their neighbours fitter until they were a match to the Spartans.

This fear did, in fact, actually come to pass during the reign of Agesilaus, the last great Spartan king. To cut a long story short, Agesilaus started off with success but experienced a number of reverses that reduced Spartan power over time. The consequence of this was that the Spartans fought their neighbours much more frequently, including Thebes.

Eventually, the Thebans became fit enough to defeat the Spartans, which they did at the Battle of Leuctra in 371 BC, ending Spartan hegemony.

It strikes me that the situation in Donetsk and Luhansk since 2014 is literally the polar opposite of the Spartan principle of not warring with your neighbour too often, for fear of making them better. One detail that I heard early on set me off on this train of thought - the low-level conflict in East Ukraine, combined with national military service, has essentially trained a very large proportion of the Ukrainian population up. Those Ukrainian reservists are probably akin to the Thebans at Leuctra in 371, with Zelensky as a new Epaminondas perhaps...?

Today’s Sparta has massively overwhelming numbers on Thebes. Thebes will put up a spirited resistance and if occupied by Sparta will most likely continue to resist in a violent fashion that will make Sparta’s rule an unhappy one. Sadly Russia will crush Ukraine, but the victory will be hollow in the extreme as it will come at the expense of a huge number of lives lost on either side for absolutely no gain whatsoever. In Sparta they are still telling Spartans that they are not at war with Thebes ffs.

 

[magneze]

Radio 4 around 6 mentioned that both sides appeared to have intimated that
progress had been made at "talks". No mention of this here, the BBC website or Guardian. Was it just wishful daydreaming?

 

[2hats]

Radio 4 around 6 mentioned that both sides appeared to have intimated that
progress had been made at "talks". No mention of this here, the BBC website or Guardian. Was it just wishful daydreaming?

Saw a claim along those lines earlier in Russian media.

 

[Raheem]

Radio 4 around 6 mentioned that both sides appeared to have intimated that
progress had been made at "talks". No mention of this here, the BBC website or Guardian. Was it just wishful daydreaming?

No, I heard or read the same thing. Not sure it was progress as in we're partway there, though. More that they are actually talking about something in the meetings now.

 

[magneze]

Oh good. I didn't imagine it. holds onto hope

 

[teqniq]

This is very powerful imo: