Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[SpookyFrank]

i didn't think chernobyl had anything that dangerous in it any more though?

It'll stop being dangerous in half a billion years or so.

 

[bimble]

well, yeah, but who did he consult before going on tv announcing that the UK is up for 'protecting Poland from the direct consequences' whilst NATO as a whole obvs isn't. I remember him on the radio a month ago sounding extremely up for a scrap, strikes me as a liability a man not sufficiently careful with his words.

 

[Cid]

It really does reveal a lot when our politicians are dumped on the world stage doesn't it?

Well, maybe not 'reveal' so much as highlight.

The whole situation seems very much on a knife edge at the moment, with a lot of backroom dealing, general picture unclear and the next few days likely to be critical... Not really the time to be making bombastic statements.

 

[YouSir]

well, yeah, but who did he consult before going on tv announcing that the UK is up for 'protecting Poland from the direct consequences' whilst NATO as a whole obvs isn't. I remember him on the radio a month ago sounding extremely up for a scrap, strikes me as a liability a man not sufficiently careful with his words.

What makes you think NATO members wouldn't honour the alliance?

Either way he's just betting that Russia won't attack Poland so it's a good time to act the big man.

 

[Spymaster]

That whole plane thing is very odd and looks like the kind of diplomatic fuckup that really should have happened in private. The announcement on the Polish gov website is still there but it could be read as being an offer, pressure on the US, rather than a promised plan of action. Statement of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Poland in connection with the statement by the US Secretary of State on providing airplanes to Ukraine - Ministry of Foreign Affairs Republic of Poland - Gov.pl website

You say “could be read as being just an offer”.

I’d go further and say it couldn’t be read as anything else. It looks like they’re doing their diplomacy via statements on websites rather than speaking to the Americans first.

All of this nonsense about ‘we’ll give them our jets via the Americans in Germany, so we’re not seen to be handing them over directly’ seems like bollocks to me. They’re just trying to involve some other nations to dilute the Russian response, but if the Russians are attacked by Polish jets, they’re attacked by Polish jets. They’ve already said that’s a red line.

Poland is playing a very dangerous game here and the Americans are right to tell them to piss off.

 

[Cid]

Lavrov and Kuleba apparently to meet in Turkey today.

 

[cupid_stunt]

well, yeah, but who did he consult before going on tv announcing that the UK is up for 'protecting Poland from the direct consequences' whilst NATO as a whole obvs isn't. I remember him on the radio a month ago sounding extremely up for a scrap, strikes me as a liability a man not sufficiently careful with his words.

The US had already guaranteed support to Poland if they supply the jets, and has been working on plans with Poland to do so, that's why I think the sticking points are the idea of supplying them via Germany, and getting the rest of NATO on side.

 

[bimble]

The US had already guaranteed support to Poland if they supply the jets, and has been working on plans with Poland to do so, that's why I think the sticking points are the idea of supplying them via Germany, and getting the rest of NATO on side.

what do you mean guaranteed to support? From 'direct consequences' like our brave man said on tv? I don't see any way in which it was a good idea for him to go and say that, even if he consulted Liz Truss before going on Sky

 

[YouSir]

You say “could be read as being just an offer”.

I’d go further and say it couldn’t be read as anything else. It looks like they’re doing their diplomacy via statements on websites rather than speaking to the Americans first.

All of this nonsense about ‘we’ll give them our jets via the Americans in Germany, so we’re not seen to be handing them over directly’ seems like bollocks to me. They’re just trying to involve some other nations to dilute the Russian response, but if the Russians are attacked by Polish jets, they’re attacked by Polish jets. They’ve already said that’s a red line.

Poland is playing a very dangerous game here and the Americans are right to tell them to piss off.

Have Russia actually outlined any plausible response? Beyond the nuclear threat it's hard to imagine anything they can actually do tbh. They’d lose any conventional conflict with NATO.

Playing Billy and Boris Big Bollocks on both sides.

 

[Spymaster]

Beyond the nuclear threat it's hard to imagine anything they can actually do tbh.

Oh well that’s all right then. All they can do is start chucking nukes around.

 

[Dogsauce]

I thought we were told the Ukrainian airforce was largely intact? Also how useful will old jets be by the time they’re actually delivered and made serviceable? It seems like a grand gesture with possibly little practical benefit - most or all of Ukraine’s airfields are within range of Russian cruise missile strikes and there will be plenty of air defences ranged against them.

 

[cupid_stunt]

what do you mean guaranteed to support? From 'direct consequences' like our brave man said?

Of course, they have already sent thousands of troops to Poland recently, have been "working actively" with Poland on sending these jets, and any attack on one NATO country is an attack on all.

Poland, having been somewhat nervous with the suggestion, just seems to have served a curve ball by suggesting they would only do it via Germany, probably knowing full well that wouldn't happen.

 

[YouSir]

Oh well that’s all right then. All they can do is start chucking nukes around.

Would they do that over a few (previously) Polish planes though? Russia has every reason to avoid escalation and none to speed up a global nuclear apocalypse. The 'red lines' thing just seems like posturing to me.

 

[andysays]

Seems like there is still support from the US for this proposal, just differences about how it should be achieved

Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said, "the prospect of fighter jets at the disposal of the government of the United States of America departing from a US/Nato base in Germany to fly into airspace that is contested with Russia over Ukraine raises serious concerns for the entire Nato alliance". The US was caught off guard by Poland's offer, which came in response to Ukraine's growing calls for Western allies to supply it with military jets to help fight Russia's invasion.

Military analyst Col Brendan Kearney told the BBC he was "perplexed with the approach the Poles are taking". He said "the Ukrainian pilots could literally walk across the border into Poland and fly them back into Ukraine", which "seems like a much easier, much smarter move. The long-term ultimate goal of getting additional MIG-29s into Ukrainian hands is a noble one, it's a good one, but we've got to have people sitting down who know what they're talking about and coming up with a plan that is executable," Col Kearney added.

As others have said, it's surprising that this is all being discussed in public and possibly makes it less likely that agreement on how to achieve it will eventually be reached

 

[planetgeli]

Russia ‘solving logistics problems’ and could attack Kyiv within days – experts

Influential thinktank concludes that invading army’s flawed assumptions are gradually being overcome

www.theguardian.com

For those who like 'experts' - even when they're saying what we don't want to hear.

 

[Spymaster]

Would they do that over a few (previously) Polish planes though? Russia has every reason to avoid escalation and none to speed up a global nuclear apocalypse. The 'red lines' thing just seems like posturing to me.

Two weeks ago, Vlad was posturing and never going to invade Ukraine. A few days after that he was posturing and not going to go beyond Donbas and Luhansk. So far pretty much everyone who’s said he’s not going to do something have been wrong. He may realise this was all a bad idea and send his troops home, losing face massively and ending the global perception that Russia is a superpower. Or not.

 

[bimble]

Of course, they have already sent thousands of troops to Poland recently, have been "working actively" with Poland on sending these jets, and any attack on one NATO country is an attack on all.

Poland, having been somewhat nervous with the suggestion, just seems to have served a curve ball by suggesting they would only do it via Germany, probably knowing full well that wouldn't happen.

I still don't get it. why would Germany be some kind of obvious sticking point in the cunning plan.

Anyway i think this guy's 'come on then' stance is not helpful.

 

[YouSir]

Two weeks ago, Vlad was posturing and never going to invade Ukraine. A few days after that he was posturing and not going to go beyond Donbas and Luhansk. So far pretty much everyone who’s said he’s not going to do something have been wrong. He may realise this was all a bad idea and send his troops home, losing face massively and ending the global perception that Russia is a superpower. Or not.

He may do any number of things, you’re right. As may those around him for that matter. Still, what else is there to do but try to make sense of it all?

 

[Cid]

I still don't get it. why would Germany be some kind of obvious sticking point in the cunning plan.

Anyway i think this guy's 'come on then' stance is not helpful.

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It's flying them over from Germany via contested airspace that's the problem I think. Dunno details.

 

[cupid_stunt]

I still don't get it. why would Germany be some kind of obvious sticking point in the cunning plan.

Because Germany is highly unlikely to agree, because they don't want the gas supply cut off.

 

[Spymaster]

He may do any number of things, you’re right. As may those around him for that matter. Still, what else is there to do but try to make sense of it all?

I’d say the most immediate issue is not to escalate things by giving them NATO jets.

 

[andysays]

It's flying them over from Germany via contested airspace that's the problem I think. Dunno details.

According to the Pentagon spokesperson quoted in my post above, it's flying them into contested airspace from a NATO airbase in Germany which is the problem.

Not sure why the same wouldn't apply to flying them into the same contested airspace from a base in Poland, TBH...

 

[andysays]

I’d say the most immediate issue is not to escalate things by giving them NATO jets.

That's what you've said before, and it's a reasonable position, but the US has been saying it has no problem with the general idea, and it's just the method of delivery they're not happy with.

 

[YouSir]

I’d say the most immediate issue is not to escalate things by giving them NATO jets.

Not sure that's an issue delegated to Urban75 tbh.

 

[Cid]

Wonder whether part of it (from the US perspective) is keeping the option open as part of Ukraine's negotiating position over the next few days. Anyway, really just speculating here... Probably time to step away from the keyboard for me.

 

[kebabking]

I’d say the most immediate issue is not to escalate things by giving them NATO jets.

The Polish, and Baltic, UK and Romanian view is that Putin is going to escalate anyway - for them it's an argument over whether, by putting up an umbrella, you make it rain...

For those eastern states, as well as having a huge pool of familial ties to Ukraine, shared experiences, and a far deeper level of political and societal solidarity with Ukraine, there's the very real practicality that despite Russia beginning to get it's shit in order, and even if/when they win, the war itself, and the economic sanctions, have done a huge amount of damage to the Russian Army.

The longer the Ukrainians are able to stay in the fight, the worse that damage gets. The worse that damage gets, the less effective the Russian Army will be against the eastern states when Russia tries it on with them.

For the eastern states, this is as much their war as it is Ukraine's.

 

[_Russ_]

I still think throwing loads of combat Drones their way would help immensely, they could have made a massive impact on that column stalled in the North.
To me the mood music from NATO is showing signs of allowing half of Ukraine fall to Russian occupation.

 

[existentialist]

I wonder what's quietly going on while there's all this heat and light about flying MiGs to Ukraine

 

[platinumsage]

Yeah it's funny there's a big hoohah about fighter jets when there's already NATO Turkish drones and NATO Polish manpads etc already laying waste to Russian ground and air forces.

 

[contadino]

I still don't get it. why would Germany be some kind of obvious sticking point in the cunning plan.

Anyway i think this guy's 'come on then' stance is not helpful.

View attachment 313517

Seems to me that everything coming from uk govt ministers is intended to inflame the situation. From Truss's 'get out there and join the fight' to getting Zelensky to grandstand in parliament on live TV. From stalling on sanctions to anything coming from any ministers gob.

Wonder why that is all happening now, when Putin's been a clear liability on foreign soil for a decade. It's not like they couldn't have started weaning us off russian oil and gas after Salisbury or sanctioned oligarchs when Putin sent troops and worse into Syria..

Absolutely 100% nothing to do with the rancid shambles of a government they're providing, the party coffers being full of backhanders and the trail of clusterfucks they're created.... Either way it's fully intended to paint a target on the UK's back.