Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[Spymaster]

Which weapons haven't belonged to a NATO country?

There's a huge difference between continuing to send them defensive weapons, and upping the game to giving them jet aircraft which will be used offensively and which the Russians have warned would be seen as a major escalation.

You can say "fuck the Russians" if you like, but you must accept that this would be a significant escalation which brings NATO into much closer contact with Russia than it currently is.

 

[A380]

Are you saying Poland shouldn’t be ready to defend itself?

If the Russians were to fire missiles at Poland then the Poles would be aggressive warmongers if they tried to damage those weapons in flight. Obvs.

 

[bimble]

Military stuff: this man says that Russia already sent half of their total number of soldiers into Ukraine, which puts them in a very tricky position.
Thread:

 

[Sprocket.]

Are you saying Poland shouldn’t be ready to defend itself?

Absolutely not, that’s a terrible assumption. It just seems that it appears to have become more immediate since US Forces have arrived.

 

[Pickman's model]

How do you know this is going to happen?

there are likely to be 'zionists' fighting for the russians too, i'd have thought.

There was a report or tweet I saw the other day about some (ex I think);Israeli special forces being in Ukraine, if I'd been prescient I'd have copied the URL. But be that as it may the number of experienced soldiers who seem to be making their way to Ukraine would either allow Ukrainian sof to harass the Russians as I outline, by replacing them in certain roles, or permit the formation of units dedicated to infiltrating the Russian positions. I have no idea if the Ukrainians will do this but given the way stationary convoys have been broken up already it is I think likely to have crossed the minds of Ukrainian officers

 

[Spymaster]

The Polish, and Baltic, UK and Romanian view is that Putin is going to escalate anyway - for them it's an argument over whether, by putting up an umbrella, you make it rain...

For those eastern states, as well as having a huge pool of familial ties to Ukraine, shared experiences, and a far deeper level of political and societal solidarity with Ukraine, there's the very real practicality that despite Russia beginning to get it's shit in order, and even if/when they win, the war itself, and the economic sanctions, have done a huge amount of damage to the Russian Army.

The longer the Ukrainians are able to stay in the fight, the worse that damage gets. The worse that damage gets, the less effective the Russian Army will be against the eastern states when Russia tries it on with them.

For the eastern states, this is as much their war as it is Ukraine's.

Which is why the rest of NATO should be looking to moderate the Polish position rather than agreeing with their prosposals to escalate things. Poland is a NATO member. They should rely on the resolve of the other members to protect them should they be attacked, rather than seek to pre-emptively weaken the prospective attacker, imo.

 

[kebabking]

Absolutely not, that’s a terrible assumption. It just seems that it appears to have become more immediate since US Forces have arrived.

I think it's probably become more immediate since Russian troop arrived in Ukraine, and Putin demonstrated what he thinks the Russian Army should do about republics and satellite states that shouldn't have been allowed to escape the tender embrace of the Warsaw pact...

It's also staggeringly illogical: if the Americans want an anti-ballistic missile capability to protect their units in Poland, and the choice is between putting one on a C-17 and flying it to Poland by Friday, and having the Poles buy one, and spend the next 6 months learning how to use it, I'm not convinced that getting the Poles to buy one is the answer...

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

That's kebabking on the left

We’ve got a special man in the audience today right now. It’s Mr. Leo. He’s a fashion consultant “Thank you, i’m just very happy to be here. I want to tell you something.” What’s that? “You know, this whole camouflage thing, for me, doesn’t work really well.” Why is that? “Because if you go in the jungle, I can’t see you. You know, it’s like wearing stripes and plaid. For me, I want to do something different. You go in the jungle, make a statement. If you’re going to fight, clash.

 

[Sprocket.]

I think it's probably become more immediate since Russian troop arrived in Ukraine, and Putin demonstrated what he thinks the Russian Army should do about republics and satellite states that shouldn't have been allowed to escape the tender embrace of the Warsaw pact...

It's also staggeringly illogical: if the Americans want an anti-ballistic missile capability to protect their units in Poland, and the choice is between putting one on a C-17 and flying it to Poland by Friday, and having the Poles buy one, and spend the next 6 months learning how to use it, I'm not convinced that getting the Poles to buy one is the answer...

I expected the Americans to be manning the system while showing the Polish forces how to use it.
But I’m just another observer who is more concerned with major escalation of a needless war.

 

[_Russ_]

USAF F16s squawking around the UK today which is unusual, lots of F15s based here but not usually F16s, some sort of message being sent

 

[dilute micro]

I think it's probably become more immediate since Russian troop arrived in Ukraine, and Putin demonstrated what he thinks the Russian Army should do about republics and satellite states that shouldn't have been allowed to escape the tender embrace of the Warsaw pact...

It's also staggeringly illogical: if the Americans want an anti-ballistic missile capability to protect their units in Poland, and the choice is between putting one on a C-17 and flying it to Poland by Friday, and having the Poles buy one, and spend the next 6 months learning how to use it, I'm not convinced that getting the Poles to buy one is the answer...

Are we sure the Polish don't simply want it for themselves?

 

[kebabking]

Are we sure the Polish don't simply want it for themselves?

It's certainly been on the Polish shopping list for some time...

 

[bimble]

Is ‘the west’ in their response motivated more by concern for Ukrainians or more by the idea that this war is an opportunity to have a long term impact on reducing Russia’s capability to be a serious threat? Im thinking it’s definitely a bit of both.

 

[two sheds]

Does also underline Russia's reluctance to give up nuclear weapons if their non-nuclear weapons are having such a hard time of things.

 

[Mr Moose]

Which is why the rest of NATO should be looking to moderate the Polish position rather than agreeing with their prosposals to escalate things. Poland is a NATO member. They should rely on the resolve of the other members to protect them should they be attacked, rather than seek to pre-emptively weaken the prospective attacker, imo.

Poland has taken in more than a million refugees (imagine that here!) and while there is no indication that they are unwelcome, quite the contrary, for all sorts of reasons they have a dog in the fight.

It’s probably right that the fighter deal is not pursued, but even by being a route for Ukraine resupply, Poland is being brought into it. If Russia takes all of Ukraine it will be at their border. That’s got to change your view if that’s you.

 

[kebabking]

Is ‘the west’ in their response motivated more by concern for Ukrainians or more by the idea that this war is an opportunity to have a long term impact on reducing Russia’s capability to be a serious threat? Im thinking it’s definitely a bit of both.

It's both - and there's nothing wrong with the latter: if you believe that Russia flattening Kyiv or Mariopol, or Kharkiev with Artillery is morally wrong, then inhibiting their ability to do it to Chisinau, or Warsaw, or Tallinn is morally right.

The best outcome would have been for the Russians to have been defeated on the Ukrainian border, but that is now no longer available to us, so it's about about them being defeated, or degraded, or whatever, somewhere between Kyiv and Tallinn.

 

[platinumsage]

Is ‘the west’ in their response motivated more by concern for Ukrainians or more by the idea that this war is an opportunity to have a long term impact on reducing Russia’s capability to be a serious threat? Im thinking it’s definitely a bit of both.

Pretty sure that Ukrainians would now be fully on board with both of those motivations. They don't want to win a war and still have Russia as a serious threat while they're rebuilding.

 

[Pickman's model]

Does also underline Russia's reluctance to give up nuclear weapons if their non-nuclear weapons are having such a hard time of things.

Yeh. Observers of the red/Russian army will have noted several times when it seemed utterly fucked eg at the start of operation Barbarossa. But armies are learning organisations, and we'll see whether the speed with which they learn allows them to regain the initiative. looking as you do at their weapons ignores that many of those weapons are wreaking havoc and destruction in Ukrainian cities. The destruction of Russian ambitions is I think much exaggerated: certainly in the long term - after the end of this phase of hostilities - I think Russia will find it had lost more than it's gained. Nonetheless, writing off Russia now may be popular though I think it is a view that may have to be reconsidered

 

[bimble]

Yes I wasn’t suggesting the 2nd motive is ‘bad’, just realising it’s probably an important part of what’s going on.

 

[dilute micro]

Over several millennia of sieges a whole body of work has been written about sieges and how to break them. A vast amount of supplies will have to reach the besiegers - food, fuel, ammunition, medicine - and flows from the siege too, like medical evacuation. The army around Kiev might be too strong to be rapidly chipped away. But the traffic to and from it seems to me readily susceptible to ambush. Easier and quicker to break an army in the field by harassing its lines of communication and supply, by infiltrating lines and killing sentries and so on, than by directly taking them on in a conventional battle. If there's Zionist sof and so on coming to fight the Russians then imo they could do worse than play a role in a guerrilla war in the middle of the larger one

Good points. I was thinking too that, seeing as how Kyiv has roughly 2 weeks of food left, it might be urgent to at least open up a way to resupply the city.

 

[kebabking]

Yeh. Observers of the red/Russian army will have observed several times when it seemed utterly fucked eg at the start of operation Barbarossa. But armies are learning organisations, and we'll see whether the speed with which they learn allows them to regain the initiative. looking as you do at their weapons ignores that many of those weapons are wreaking havoc and destruction in Ukrainian cities. The destruction of Russian ambitions is I think much exaggerated: certainly in the long term - after the end of this phase of hostilities - I think Russia will find it had lost more than it's gained. Nonetheless, writing off Russia now may be popular though I think it is a view that may have to be reconsidered

This.

They are starting to solve their logistics problems, they have changed their plans (and in big ways), they are getting better at coordinating air and ground forces.

Whether they've changed enough, quickly enough, is a question that only time and events will answer, but for Armies, getting a punch in the face is an excellent learning tool and opportunity, one that - if political cover allows - can be surprisingly fast.

 

[LDC]

What the fuck is going on with Russia's repeated claims about US bio-weapons labs etc. in Ukraine? Is this solely dis-info for domestic consumption, or setting the scene for something more involving the US?

 

[Spymaster]

Poland has taken in more than a million refugees (imagine that here!) and while there is no indication that they are unwelcome, quite the contrary, for all sorts of reasons they have a dog in the fight.

It’s probably right that the fighter deal is not pursued, but even by being a route for Ukraine resupply, Poland is being brought into it. If Russia takes all of Ukraine it will be at their border. That’s got to change your view if that’s you.

For sure. I can completely understand their position. I just don’t think it’s a reason to escalate the situation now. Poland should now be made a fortress and if they’re attacked, defended by NATO, tooth and nail. That’s not where we are now though, and going along with their current proposals risks putting us there prematurely.

 

[CNT36]

What the fuck is going on with Russia's repeated claims about US bio-weapons labs etc. in Ukraine? Is this solely dis-info for domestic consumption, or setting the scene for something more involving the US?

Something to get the covid chaps excited.

 

[dilute micro]

What the fuck is going on with Russia's repeated claims about US bio-weapons labs etc. in Ukraine? Is this solely dis-info for domestic consumption, or setting the scene for something more involving the US?

If this was real it would have been near the top of Putin's list.

 

[LDC]

If this was real it would have been near the top of Putin's list.

I mean it's obviously not 'real' but is it desperation to try and deflect or justify stuff, or something more? Are we going to get a faked lab found and that used to escalate tension?

 

[Wilf]

What do you think?

Steady on.

 

[Ax^]

report russian have disconnected Chernobyl from the international atomic agencies monitoring programme and maybe cut the power to the cooling systems

happy days

 

[Mr Moose]

I mean it's obviously not 'real' but is it desperation to try and deflect or justify stuff, or something more? Are we going to get a faked lab found and that used to escalate tension?

There is clearly a lab, that much was admitted by Under Secretary of State Nuland yesterday in testimony that will have delighted tinfoil hat wearers the World over.

The US has a long-standing ‘threat reduction’ programme in former Eastern Bloc countries with the aim of dismantling weapons of mass destruction. I’m not sure it’s being said that this belongs to the US rather than Ukraine. Clearly there remains some nasty stuff there that you wouldn’t want to get out. This appears to have lasted quite a long time.

I’m not answering to the veracity of any of this explanation and maybe there are also some dark deeds, but weapons of mass destruction was a shitty made up reason for a war when we did it and is again here.

 

[Mr Moose]

Yeh. Observers of the red/Russian army will have observed several times when it seemed utterly fucked eg at the start of operation Barbarossa. But armies are learning organisations, and we'll see whether the speed with which they learn allows them to regain the initiative. looking as you do at their weapons ignores that many of those weapons are wreaking havoc and destruction in Ukrainian cities. The destruction of Russian ambitions is I think much exaggerated: certainly in the long term - after the end of this phase of hostilities - I think Russia will find it had lost more than it's gained. Nonetheless, writing off Russia now may be popular though I think it is a view that may have to be reconsidered

I think you have inadvertently proposed a corporate signature for the Russian Army of the 21st Century, The Russian Army: A learning organisation.