Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24
- Thread starter kebabking
- Start date
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
how many cars? and how many in each car?
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
Lol they do know that Russia is like the 2nd or 3rd most popular destination for migrants in the world after the US?
ohmyliver
poppin' like a cork
thats a given otherwise they wouldn’t be posting on said board,, but there might also be some convoluted pretzel logic going on
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two sheds
Least noticed poster 2007
lots, and between one and several dozen by the look of it
ska invita
back on the other side
well its a rock and a hard place - desperate people need to get out before they die - threats of illness, cold and food are as real as rockets...by playing this game it would I expect it hurts the morale of Ukrainian state officials and makes them more pliable to reaching a ceasefire sooner
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
yeh the choice is between a lingering death from disease, starvation or hypothermia on the one had and being blown up or shot down on the other. not great options
Kevbad the Bad
Amiable Bowel Syndrome
What war would that be? Oh, the special military operation that no-one knows about.
AnnO'Neemus
Is so vanilla
Fair enough, we don't know for certain that they can't take it within weeks. I think it is fair to say that things haven't been going well though, in terms of casualties, places being recaptured by Ukrainians, the international response, senior Officers getting killed, that long convoy getting bogged down.
What I am basing this on is the resilience of Mariupol, a city of 450,000, when it is located between Crimea and the Donbas where the Russians are strongest and have had fewer logistical problems.
It appears that the Russians are having trouble moving troops in large enough numbers to approach Kyiv, and supposedly, a successful siege of a city requires between 5x and 10x as many attackers as defenders. Kyiv is a city of 3 million and in addition to the regular military there are lots of irregular militias and volunteers. They have now held out long enough to receive additional supplies from Europe, so are going to be quite well equipped.
Also, nearby cities Sumy and Kharkiv have avoided being besieged for quite a long time now, and these are smaller cities than Kyiv. Kyiv is 9x larger than Sumy and 3x larger than Kharkiv. I think it is unlikely that Russia will be in a position to besiege Kyiv until it has secured Kharkiv and Sumy at least, but so far they have not even managed to encircle them, so I feel we are a long way from them encircling Kyiv. It could happen, but I think if it does, we will be measuring the time in months, rather than weeks.
The Ukrainian airforce appears to still be intact -
US: Ukraine has ‘significant majority’ of its military aircraft
NATO rules out ‘no-fly’ zone as Russian forces threaten Kyiv and Odesa, bombard cities of Mariupol and Kherson.
But I concede this could be propaganda. Perhaps they are saving them for when they have Russian targets which lack AA defense.
But I'm not claiming any expertise here, just trying to get a read on the situation based on the information which is available to me. Based on what is to hand, it looks like Russia has a gruelling campaign ahead of it. I could be proved wrong though.
AnnO'Neemus
Is so vanilla
China could also get burned financially, due to Russian currency/ economy collapse. They share a common border, 4k+ km, sixth longest border in the world. They do a lot of business. There's quite a large Russian community in Beijing.
So, while, yes, some Chinese might welcome the business opportunities presented by disaster capitalism, a lot of Chinese companies are going to see their invoices go unpaid and their Russian customers go under, they're going to take a big financial hit.
agricola
a genuine importer of owls
Fair enough, we don't know for certain that they can't take it within weeks. I think it is fair to say that things haven't been going well though, in terms of casualties, places being recaptured by Ukrainians, the international response, senior Officers getting killed, that long convoy getting bogged down.
What I am basing this on is the resilience of Mariupol, a city of 450,000, when it is located between Crimea and the Donbas where the Russians are strongest and have had fewer logistical problems.
It appears that the Russians are having trouble moving troops in large enough numbers to approach Kyiv, and supposedly, a successful siege of a city requires between 5x and 10x as many attackers as defenders. Kyiv is a city of 3 million and in addition to the regular military there are lots of irregular militias and volunteers. They have now held out long enough to receive additional supplies from Europe, so are going to be quite well equipped.
Also, nearby cities Sumy and Kharkiv have avoided being besieged for quite a long time now, and these are smaller cities than Kyiv. Kyiv is 9x larger than Sumy and 3x larger than Kharkiv. I think it is unlikely that Russia will be in a position to besiege Kyiv until it has secured Kharkiv and Sumy at least, but so far they have not even managed to encircle them, so I feel we are a long way from them encircling Kyiv. It could happen, but I think if it does, we will be measuring the time in months, rather than weeks.
The Ukrainian airforce appears to still be intact -
US: Ukraine has ‘significant majority’ of its military aircraft
NATO rules out ‘no-fly’ zone as Russian forces threaten Kyiv and Odesa, bombard cities of Mariupol and Kherson.www.aljazeera.com
But I concede this could be propaganda. Perhaps they are saving them for when they have Russian targets which lack AA defense.
But I'm not claiming any expertise here, just trying to get a read on the situation based on the information which is available to me. Based on what is to hand, it looks like Russia has a gruelling campaign ahead of it. I could be proved wrong though.
TBF big cities are generally harder to defend than small cities are.
Indeed he is. Plenty of prominent far right evangelicals/christian natioalists in the Republican party have openly praised Putin for clamping down on the LGBT+ community, being anti-woke and enforcing 'christian values'/'supporting the state church.'
skyscraper101
0891 50 50 50
I also wouldn't be surprised if Kazakhstan et al become a back door to supplying Russia with all the sanctioned goods it requires in the near future.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
Petition on the government website, it's over 100k already, I've just signed to show a bit of solidarity.
Petition: Waive visa requirement for Ukrainian refugees.
Join other nations in providing a route to safety for refugees. Waive all visa requirements for Ukrainian passport holders arriving in the UK.petition.parliament.uk
Update on the website...
skyscraper101
0891 50 50 50
FWIW. Not that I disagree with the sentiment but these petitions even when debated pretty much never work.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
and it's not like the uk can help with eu membership
bimble
floofy
This is a bleak piece but has a great line in it.
Even if he and others really did think that Ukrainians were just Russians who strayed by mistake, the anger and hatred created this past 11 days will probably last generations now.
www.nytimes.com
Even if he and others really did think that Ukrainians were just Russians who strayed by mistake, the anger and hatred created this past 11 days will probably last generations now.
Hate for Putin’s Russia Consumes Ukraine (Published 2022)
Much of the bitterness is directed at President Vladimir V. Putin, but Ukrainians also chastise ordinary Russians, calling them complicit.
My completely uneducated guess is that it was a Downing Street demand in exchange for whatever intelligence and supplies Britain is supplying. It's purely to make Bohnson look important and historic.
Serge Forward
Just enjoyin' my coffee.
This report on the bombing of Kharkiv is like something out of WW2: Scenes of destruction, misery in Kharkiv after Russian bombings
Plumdaff
joy in people
I'd hope he'd shame the fuck out of them on the visa issue but who knows what brokerage is going on behind the scenes.
Artaxerxes
Look out, he's got a gnu!
This is a bleak piece but has a great line in it.
View attachment 313444
Even if he and others really did think that Ukrainians were just Russians who strayed by mistake, the anger and hatred created this past 11 days will probably last generations now.
Hate for Putin’s Russia Consumes Ukraine (Published 2022)
Much of the bitterness is directed at President Vladimir V. Putin, but Ukrainians also chastise ordinary Russians, calling them complicit.
If Ukraine wasn’t a nation before Putin is doing very well at making it one
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
bimble
floofy
this is very annoying but apparently true:
planetgeli
There's no future in England's dreaming
Micronesia's in the shit.
www.aljazeera.com
According to a government statement, the list includes Albania, Andorra, Australia, Great Britain, including Jersey, Anguilla, British Virgin Islands, Gibraltar, European Union member states, Iceland, Canada, Liechtenstein, Micronesia, Monaco, New Zealand, Norway, South Korea, San Marino, North Macedonia, Singapore, United States, Taiwan, Ukraine, Montenegro, Switzerland and Japan.
These are the countries Russia considers ‘unfriendly’
Decision comes after Moscow released a list of countries taking ‘unfriendly actions’ against Russia.
Russia issues list of ‘unfriendly’ countries amid Ukraine crisis
According to a government statement, the list includes Albania, Andorra, Australia, Great Britain, including Jersey, Anguilla, British Virgin Islands, Gibraltar, European Union member states, Iceland, Canada, Liechtenstein, Micronesia, Monaco, New Zealand, Norway, South Korea, San Marino, North Macedonia, Singapore, United States, Taiwan, Ukraine, Montenegro, Switzerland and Japan.
Plumdaff
joy in people
I'm not saying that this isn't the case, but I am saying that I'll believe it when someone who isn't Oz Katerji says it. He tweeted this recently
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
Zelenskyy asked to be able to address the chamber, he's already done it in several other countries, and of course, the UN too.
bimble
floofy
well, other people have said the same. I believe its to do with how UK was very quick in sending weapons, instead of wasting time pointlessly conversing with Putin like Macron did.
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