Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[SpookyFrank]

A tiny fraction of Ukraine is not half the buffet table.

View attachment 311356

They've spelled 'Russian-occupied' a bit funny there

 

[cupid_stunt]

Looking at the territory Putin is half inching, it indicates he’s bottled it. His big show today was a likely an effort to make him look all powerful and dangerous when he’s mostly backed down.

You think he's only going to grab the rebel held areas in Luhansk and Donetsk, and stop at that?

Whilst that's possible, I think it's highly unlikely, at the very least the whole of Luhansk and Donetsk is probably on his shopping list, and after that a 'land bridge' between those regions and Crimea. And, that would involve taking some key Ukrainian cities, including a port which is the eastern HQ for the Ukraine army.

 

[Aladdin]

Biden said a few hours ago that sanctions are now imposed on the separatist areas
He ssid the allies would impose further sanctions if Russia invades further into the Ukraine...when last week they were saying any invasion into Ukraine would lead to sanctions against Russia.

U.S. imposes sanctions after Putin recognizes breakaway Ukraine regions

White House press secretary Jen Psaki said the penalties are "separate from and would be in addition to the swift and severe economic measures" the U.S. has been preparing with allies.

www.cbsnews.com

 

[cupid_stunt]

Putin is good at this game, by starting with just the rebel held areas, he knows the west will not impose the full weight of sanctions on Russia, if they did, they have nothing left to threaten him with, so he may as well go ahead with a full invasion straight away.

This leaves him with the option to limit damage to Russia by stopping at this point, or more likely make up excuses to take all of Luhansk and Donetsk, again hoping it will not be enough to push the west to use everything they have against him, leaving them holding back in an attempt to stop him taking all of Urkaine.

He's got the upper hand, if he wants he can take it bit by bit, slowly, slowly, catchy the monkey.

 

[agricola]

Putin is good at this game, by starting with just the rebel held areas, he knows the west will not impose the full weight of sanctions on Russia, if they did, they have nothing left to threaten him with, so he may as well go ahead with a full invasion straight away.

This leaves him with the option to limit damage to Russia by stopping at this point, or more likely make up excuses to take all of Luhansk and Donetsk, again hoping it will not be enough to push the west to use everything they have against him, leaving them holding back in an attempt to stop him taking all of Urkaine.

He's got the upper hand, if he wants he can take it bit by bit, slowly, slowly, catchy the monkey.

Yes, but I think the problem with that sort of belief is that it sort of forgets that not so long ago he influenced all of Ukraine. That he doesn’t now is almost entirely down to him.

I mean every time he does one of these smart, edgy, tough guy moves it shreds what remains of his and his countries reputation. After humiliating all the people who at least tried to give diplomacy a chance, after blatantly (and incompetently) lying about the invasion never going to happen and after threatening most of Eastern Europe, Russia is in a much worse position now than it was even six months ago. He is busily talking himself into ostracism.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Yes, but I think the problem with that sort of belief is that it sort of forgets that not so long ago he influenced all of Ukraine. That he doesn’t now is almost entirely down to him.

I mean every time he does one of these smart, edgy, tough guy moves it shreds what remains of his and his countries reputation. After humiliating all the people who at least tried to give diplomacy a chance, after blatantly (and incompetently) lying about the invasion never going to happen and after threatening most of Eastern Europe, Russia is in a much worse position now than it was even six months ago. He is busily talking himself into ostracism.

Yes, but he doesn't seem to care about that.

 

[Aladdin]

Yes, but I think the problem with that sort of belief is that it sort of forgets that not so long ago he influenced all of Ukraine. That he doesn’t now is almost entirely down to him.

I mean every time he does one of these smart, edgy, tough guy moves it shreds what remains of his and his countries reputation. After humiliating all the people who at least tried to give diplomacy a chance, after blatantly (and incompetently) lying about the invasion never going to happen and after threatening most of Eastern Europe, Russia is in a much worse position now than it was even six months ago. He is busily talking himself into ostracism.

How long before he is ousted by his own do you think?
I think his days are numbered

 

[Spymaster]

Yes, but I think the problem with that sort of belief is that it sort of forgets that not so long ago he influenced all of Ukraine. That he doesn’t now is almost entirely down to him.

I mean every time he does one of these smart, edgy, tough guy moves it shreds what remains of his and his countries reputation. After humiliating all the people who at least tried to give diplomacy a chance, after blatantly (and incompetently) lying about the invasion never going to happen and after threatening most of Eastern Europe, Russia is in a much worse position now than it was even six months ago. He is busily talking himself into ostracism.

Yes. This should really be giving the ABW (Anyone But the West) crew, food for thought. Apart from how it plays out in Ukraine now, what happens when Russians start to realise that their leader has lost the plot and look to do something about it?

For years the world has worried about nuclear weapons falling into the hands of fundies or maniacs. How is that not where we are at the moment?

 

[platinumsage]

What happens when Russians start to realise that their leader has lost the plot and look to do something about it?

They've had countless chances to realize that. If he has truly lost his marbles the coup will come from those closest to him as in Soviet times e.g. Khrushchev.

 

[TopCat]

How long before he is ousted by his own do you think?
I think his days are numbered

You are dreaming...

 

[Aladdin]

You are dreaming...

Maybe.

He looked completely unhinged at the security council meeting.

 

[TopCat]

Good to know the US is firmly committed to countries having total self determination, who would have known?

 

[cupid_stunt]

 

[SpookyFrank]

How long before he is ousted by his own do you think?
I think his days are numbered

Everyone close to him is there because they're utterly dependent on his patronage. There is no opposition in Russia. Nothing short of a bullet will stop the fucker now.

 

[SpookyFrank]

Good to know the US is firmly committed to countries having total self determination, who would have known?

Nobody in Latin America, the middle east or southeast Asia that's for sure.

 

[agricola]

Yes, but he doesn't seem to care about that.

He doesn’t, which is the crazy thing.

 

[LDC]

Sanctions must be a finely balanced thing to impose right? Like not harsh enough or in the wrong areas, and it'll make no difference, too much and it'll give him a chance to blame hardship etc. on 'the West' even more, possibly leading to an escalation and wider confrontation?

Some commentator this morning saying Putin won't care that much, capital and personal wealth will just move for a bit, and unless shelves start being empty in Russia it'll won't be noticed much, or at all.

 

[cupid_stunt]

This is a good analysis of what went on yesterday, worth reading in full.

There was very little exchange of opinion, and the idea that it was all spontaneous was further undermined by the fact that closeups of the watches of certain participants appeared to suggest that the “live” broadcast had in fact been filmed several hours earlier.

This did not stop Putin specifically emphasising that the event really was a frank exchange of views.

“Every one of you knows, and I specially want to underline it … I did not discuss any of this with you before. I did not ask your opinion before. And this is happening spontaneously, because I wanted to hear your opinions without any preliminary preparation,” he said.

As the smell of bullshit spreads across the room.

But it seems likely that Putin has much more in mind than simply taking a nibble out of Ukraine’s east and taking formal responsibility for territories he already de facto controlled.

Putin’s final words, that if Kyiv did not stop the violence they would bear responsibility for the “ensuing bloodshed”, were ominous in the extreme. It sounded, quite simply, like a declaration of war.

Putin’s absurd, angry spectacle will be a turning point in his long reign

Analysis: This was a supreme leader marshalling his minions for a decision that will change the security architecture in Europe and may well lead to horrific war

www.theguardian.com

 

[Nikkormat]

Everyone close to him is there because they're utterly dependent on his patronage. There is no opposition in Russia. Nothing short of a bullet will stop the fucker now.

Right on.

And he has popular support in Russia:

Statista, 1999-2001

Moscow Times, 2022

I can't claim any expertise in this field, but my Russian partner used to be an election monitor there; elections were rigged, but really didn't need to be. All Putin ever has to do it remind Russians what life was like in the 1990s, and tell them that the relative stability they have now is down to him. Civil society has been destroyed, and independent media barely exists, so Russians are fed a diet of government propaganda and nothing else.

 

[Spymaster]

They've had countless chances to realize that.

No writ so large. This is fucking extraordinary. It's megalomaniacal stuff.

Look at that joke security conference yesterday. They're normally held in secret but this one is broadcast to the world and obviously choreographed to oblivion. It was Ernst Blofeld holding a SPECTRE meeting with all the underlings visibly shitting themselves in case they fluffed their lines and their chair fell through the floor and deposited them in a shark tank.

Then that bonkers rant of his last night.

This is Putin on crack and I don't think the likes of it has been seen before.

 

[TopCat]

Putin said address our security concerns or else. The West told him to fuck off. This is the result.

 

[existentialist]

So, for you, having an overbearing mother is a question of violence?

Yes. There is psychological violence being perpetrated there.

I don't remember clearly, because I haven't, as a matter of policy, interacted with you much lately, but I do seem to recall that you have in the past been very big on dismissing any kind of psychological aspect to anything. And then you come up with this:

Very sceptical of trauma claims - IME, sending people through hard times makes them stronger. If trauma really were a thing then natural disasters and other calamities would long ago have nipped the progress of humanity in the bud.

So that makes you one of those people who would, back in the day, have written off bullying, harassment and all the kinds of non-physical violence inflicted on people as somehow "character building"

And the leopard has clearly failed to change its shorts.

 

[not-bono-ever]

Russia has had security on its mind for centuries.

Still don’t see a full invasion coming despite the talking up by Johnson. Russia can’t afford it .

 

[SpookyFrank]

Right on.

And he has popular support in Russia:

Statista, 1999-2001

Moscow Times, 2022

I can't claim any expertise in this field, but my Russian partner used to be an election monitor there; elections were rigged, but really didn't need to be. All Putin ever has to do it remind Russians what life was like in the 1990s, and tell them that the relative stability they have now is down to him. Civil society has been destroyed, and independent media barely exists, so Russians are fed a diet of government propaganda and nothing else.

Mrs Frank despairs at how her family back home, who are otherwise reasonable people, have become so loyal to Putin. The TV news there is a bad joke, the fake footage they've been using to drum up anti-Ukrainian sentiment is getting increasingly ridiculous but everyone buys it just the same because what else is there?

This is why I don't buy the 'Putin's lost it' angle. If he was just an unhinged nutcase he'd have invaded ten, twenty years ago. What he actually did was spend those years gaining absolute control over the media, civil society and public discourse. Because he needs that level of control to convince Russians that their Ukrainian cousins, and in many Russian families they will literally be cousins, are suddenly an existential threat. Unfortunately to maintain that control he needs to provide some kind of substrate for the heroic national narrative. A vast military apparatus that's woven into the fabric of political and even religious life (Putin's revivified orthodox church is laced through with overt worship of the Russian military) has to be given something to do, lest it become a source of dissent as it has on more than one occasion in Russian history.

 

[SpookyFrank]

dp.

 

[not-bono-ever]

Russia Today leading with fireworks and celebrations in the new territories

 

[SpookyFrank]

Putin said address our security concerns or else. The West told him to fuck off. This is the result.

Putin invented some spurious 'security concerns' knowing full well he'd be told to fuck off. This is the result.

 

[not-bono-ever]

Sanctions must be a finely balanced thing to impose right? Like not harsh enough or in the wrong areas, and it'll make no difference, too much and it'll give him a chance to blame hardship etc. on 'the West' even more, possibly leading to an escalation and wider confrontation?

Some commentator this morning saying Putin won't care that much, capital and personal wealth will just move for a bit, and unless shelves start being empty in Russia it'll won't be noticed much, or at all.

He adept at covering his tracks anyway, his stash is well dispersed. The empty shelves issue is a real concern tho

 

[Spymaster]

Mrs Frank despairs at how her family back home, who are otherwise reasonable people, have become so loyal to Putin. The TV news there is a bad joke, the fake footage they've been using to drum up anti-Ukrainian sentiment is getting increasingly ridiculous but everyone buys it just the same because what else is there?

Watching RT late last night they had western reporters saying some quite staggering things, and one chap "finding" bits of Ukrainian shells and holding up "the bloodstained clothing of an innocent miner who was on his way to work".

Proper North Korea stuff.

 

[Pickman's model]

Watching RT late last night they had western reporters saying some quite staggering things, and one chap "finding" bits of Ukrainian shells and holding up "the bloodstained clothing of an innocent miner who was on his way to work".

Proper North Korea stuff.

all countries tell proper porkies - we know iraq has wmd for example.