Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[ska invita]

So, how popular is Russian irredentism among those likely to succeed Putin?

What do I know, but I'd bet there's many an ultranationalist/imperialist in Kremlin circles

Saw a link on that Meduza site that Putin's trustworthiness ratings have seen a ten point bump up to seventy percent since war started.

who did the polling?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I don’t think anyone expects or even wants you to

Do you ever tire of this? Why bother posting if all you're going to do is have sly digs. You complain about others doing it, but you're one of the worst offenders. You've come across as a nasty twat on this thread, fwiw.

 

[JimW]

who did the polling?

I'd have to dig it out but they're no fans and tenor of report was facing up to why support persists/consolidates in these circumstances. Should think things are moving fast too.

 

[cupid_stunt]

RT is about to disappear off Sky & Freesat, as it's been confirmed that the EU ban will apply to SES, the Luxembourg based company that operates the Astra satellites, which transmits all the channels that Sky & Freesat offer, apparently Virgin doesn't carry it anyway.

Freeview normally takes the feed from the Astra satellites, but apparently is now carrying RT America uploaded from the US to a Intelsat satellite in an attempt to avoid the EU ban, however there's some doubt as to if their OFCOM licence actually allows that, so it may disappear anyway. The Intelsat satellite is not designed for DTH (Direct To Home) transmissions, so can't appear on SKY or Freesat, you would need a much bigger dish pointing at a different position in the sky.

So, it could totally disappear before OFCOM gets around to completing their 15 different investigations and deciding if they are going to ban it or not.

 

[Pickman's model]

RT is about to disappear off Sky & Freesat, as it's been confirmed that the EU ban will apply to SES, the Luxembourg based company that operates the Astra satellites, which transmits all the channels that Sky & Freesat offer, apparently Virgin doesn't carry it anyway.

Freeview normally takes the feed from the Astra satellites, but apparently is now carrying RT USA uploaded from the US to a Intelsat satellite in an attempt to avoid the EU ban, however there's some doubt as to if their OFCOM licence actually allows that, so it may disappear anyway. The Intelsat satellite is not designed for DTH (Direct To Home) transmissions, so can't appear on SKY or Freesat, you would need a much bigger dish pointing at a different position in the sky.

So, it could totally disappear before OFCOM gets around to completing their 15 different investigations and deciding if they are going to ban it or not.

There seem to be more and more investigations that achieve less and less

 

[Spymaster]

Do you ever tire of this? Why bother posting if all you're going to do is have sly digs. You complain about others doing it, but you're one of the worst offenders. You've come across as a nasty twat on this thread, fwiw.

Aye. Orang Utan should stick to his silly thread policeman act on the crap jokes thread.

 

[DaveCinzano]

There seem to be more and more investigations that achieve less and less

Sue Gray to be appointed Special Rapporteur would seem an inevitability at some point

 

[kebabking]

This is, potentially, interesting.

Obvs it's RT, so I don't know where or when it was filmed, and my Russian isn't good enough to do any kind of serious translation. (frogwoman ?)

But. Hodgepodge of uniforms, blokes in their 40's+, some of them a bit porky - these are reservists, and not first line reservists. They might be 20 years from their 2 years as conscripts.

These are C units, properly the dregs of the Russian Army.

 

[DaveCinzano]

This is, potentially, interesting.

Obvs it's RT, so I don't know where or when it was filmed, and my Russian isn't good enough to do any kind of serious translation. (frogwoman ?)

But. Hodgepodge of uniforms, blokes in their 40's+, some of them a bit porky - these are reservists, and not first line reservists. They might be 20 years from their 2 years as conscripts.

These are C units, properly the dregs of the Russian Army.

A lot of the uniforms (like in the Chechen column video) look somewhat box-fresh

 

[frogwoman]

This is, potentially, interesting.

Obvs it's RT, so I don't know where or when it was filmed, and my Russian isn't good enough to do any kind of serious translation. (frogwoman ?)

But. Hodgepodge of uniforms, blokes in their 40's+, some of them a bit porky - these are reservists, and not first line reservists. They might be 20 years from their 2 years as conscripts.

These are C units, properly the dregs of the Russian Army.

I didn't understand everything in that video but the bits I did understand was like 'hello, everyone, you all ready? Scary, isn't it? Yes, but it is what it is' and the reporter asking one of the guys what his name was, the guy replied Artiom. There's probably a couple of things I missed but I got the gist of the video. Very Dads Army esque frankly

 

[spitfire]

This is, potentially, interesting.

Obvs it's RT, so I don't know where or when it was filmed, and my Russian isn't good enough to do any kind of serious translation. (frogwoman ?)

But. Hodgepodge of uniforms, blokes in their 40's+, some of them a bit porky - these are reservists, and not first line reservists. They might be 20 years from their 2 years as conscripts.

These are C units, properly the dregs of the Russian Army.

I know everyone gets a little nervous when a state sponsored camera is pointed at you but even taking that into account they don’t exude confidence.

 

[bimble]

i (obviously) have no idea if this is true but if it is that would explain some things.


the article is here:

archive.ph

 

[Pickman's model]

I didn't understand everything in that video but the bits I did understand was like 'hello, everyone, you all ready? Scary, isn't it? Yes, but it is what it is' and the reporter asking one of the guys what his name was, the guy replied Artiom. There's probably a couple of things I missed but I got the gist of the video. Very Dads Army esque frankly

Dad's army always won through tho

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

With apologies for the slight derail:

No the US itself bought over 200 million barrels of Russian oil last year after having shut down the Keystone XL. Before that the US was a net exporter. Supplying oil to Europe and halting Russian oil would crush Russia.

The Keystone XL is a pipeline, not an oil field. It doesn't produce oil, it just transports it... and only about 8% was ever built. The US has been buying Russian oil for years. There was spike in oil imports from Russia since early 2019, a full year before the Keystone Pipeline was denied a permit to build its northern segment. You have to remember that just because we import crude, it doesn't mean that we're not a "net energy exporter."* The US often buys crude, refines it, and then re-exports it. It makes our oil import figures look like we use more than we do. If you look at the numbers for late 2021, they've begun going down again, as the price of crude rose. It looks like we were still a net energy exporter in 2019 and 2020. The numbers aren't fully in for 2021, so we can't tell for sure. This article explains the situation fairly well.

Why do I say “net”? Because if we import a million barrels per day of oil, and export that as roughly a million barrels per day of finished products, it doesn’t actually impact our energy independence — even though it increases our gross overall consumption. ....

“Annual crude oil production generally decreased between 1970 and 2008. In 2009, the trend reversed, and production began to rise, and in 2019, U.S. crude oil production reached a record high of 12.25 million barrels per day. More cost-effective drilling and production technologies helped to drive the production increases, especially in Texas and North Dakota. U.S. crude oil production declined to about 11.31 million barrels per day in 2020. A large drop in U.S. petroleum demand in March and April 2020 as a result of the response to the Covid-19 pandemic led to a decrease in U.S. oil production.” ....

But we don’t actually know if, once the full year of 2021 has been accounted for, we lost our energy independence for the year. If it turns out that we did, the single largest factor in that will be that oil and natural gas production have yet to return back to pre-Covid-19 levels. But demand has recovered, and therein lies the reason.

Is The U.S. Energy Independent?

Did we lose our energy independence under President Biden? It's complicated.

www.forbes.com

* You have to be specific about what is meant here. "Net energy exporter" and "net oil exporter" are two different things. We've mostly been a net energy exporter because of the rise of natural gas production in the US, not oil production.

 

[Idris2002]

i (obviously) have no idea if this is true but if it is that would explain some things.


the article is here:

archive.ph

How much of this sort of thing would be needed to put a spanner in the works for the whole war machine?

 

[Pickman's model]

How much of this sort of thing would be needed to put a spanner in the works for the whole war machine?

lots

 

[Idris2002]

lots

Desertion from the Russian army, or a Russian army, is what gave us the phrase "voting with their feet", after all.

 

[skyscraper101]

RT is about to disappear off Sky & Freesat, as it's been confirmed that the EU ban will apply to SES, the Luxembourg based company that operates the Astra satellites, which transmits all the channels that Sky & Freesat offer, apparently Virgin doesn't carry it anyway.

Freeview normally takes the feed from the Astra satellites, but apparently is now carrying RT America uploaded from the US to a Intelsat satellite in an attempt to avoid the EU ban, however there's some doubt as to if their OFCOM licence actually allows that, so it may disappear anyway. The Intelsat satellite is not designed for DTH (Direct To Home) transmissions, so can't appear on SKY or Freesat, you would need a much bigger dish pointing at a different position in the sky.

So, it could totally disappear before OFCOM gets around to completing their 15 different investigations and deciding if they are going to ban it or not.

RT America is almost certainly not licensed by OFCOM and that should be reason enough for them to have it removed with immediate effect.

 

[ska invita]

"Russia wants to declare former Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych - ousted during anti-government protests in 2013-14 - as the new leader of Ukraine, the Ukrayinska Pravda news and analysis website has reported, quoting Ukrainian intelligence."

 

[Orang Utan]

Do you ever tire of this? Why bother posting if all you're going to do is have sly digs. You complain about others doing it, but you're one of the worst offenders. You've come across as a nasty twat on this thread, fwiw.

Low tolerance of bullshitting that’s all.

 

[Diamond]

"Russia wants to declare former Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych - ousted during anti-government protests in 2013-14 - as the new leader of Ukraine, the Ukrayinska Pravda news and analysis website has reported, quoting Ukrainian intelligence."

Yeah, I saw that as well and thought - could there be a more retrograde approach?

How do you try and sell that to the Ukrainians?

There is an interesting element of Imperial arrogance to this all - launching a somewhat late war that your army wasn't prepared to fight, lining up whatever odds and sods you had lying around for the replacement, little sign of any prep for the occupation.

 

[andysays]

There's a report on the BBC that peace talks may resume later today

13:07 Peace talks to resume - Russian reports

Peace talks will resume on Wednesday evening between Russia and Ukraine, according to Russian state news agency Tass. "Our delegation will be ready to continue talks," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

It follows a first round of talks on the Russian-Belarusian border, which failed to reach any resolution.

President Vladimir Putin's aide Vladimir Medinsky will once again be the chief negotiator for Russia, reports say."I think things will stay the same. Nothing will change. We will stick by our position. Same people involved," presidential advisor Olexiy Arestovych told Suspilne TV.

There is no word yet on where the talks might take place.

Doesn't look like very substantial, TBH, may just be for home ie Russian consumption or other propaganda purposes

 

[cupid_stunt]

RT America is almost certainly not licensed by OFCOM and that should be reason enough for them to have it removed with immediate effect.

From what I've read elsewhere the European beam on that Intelsat satellite has now changed from RT America to RT UK, and therefore now changed on Freeview too. but as I don't have FV I can't check. It seems whilst Intelsat has it's administrative headquarters in the US, their corporate headquarters are in Luxembourg, so their little workaround may still be cut-off.

Seems Sky has jumped the gun & already removed it from their channel list, on Freesat the info/TV guide displays 'this channel is currently unavailable', but it's still there, ironically moaning about being banned.

 

[JimW]

If we allow international law to be replaced by the law of fists, according to which the powerful are always right and entitled to everything, and when choosing the means of achieving their goals, are not limited by anything, one of the basic principles of international law — the inviolability of the sovereignty of states — would then be called into question. At that point, no country in the world will feel safe, and the hotbed of instability that has arisen today will grow and will have negative consequences in other regions of the world.

Noted peacenik Vladimir Putin in 2003, collection of more here: ‘We know the value of peace’ Meduza looks back on 22 years of anti-war statements from Russia’s Vladimir Putin — Meduza

 

[frogwoman]

 

[Pickman's model]

Loads of actual fascist battalions assisting the Russian army and the 'special operation in Donbass'.

don't suppose they'll be denazified

 

[Cid]

There's a report on the BBC that peace talks may resume later today

13:07 Peace talks to resume - Russian reports

Peace talks will resume on Wednesday evening between Russia and Ukraine, according to Russian state news agency Tass. "Our delegation will be ready to continue talks," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

It follows a first round of talks on the Russian-Belarusian border, which failed to reach any resolution.

President Vladimir Putin's aide Vladimir Medinsky will once again be the chief negotiator for Russia, reports say."I think things will stay the same. Nothing will change. We will stick by our position. Same people involved," presidential advisor Olexiy Arestovych told Suspilne TV.

There is no word yet on where the talks might take place.

Doesn't look like very substantial, TBH, may just be for home ie Russian consumption or other propaganda purposes

CNN is reporting participation as a confirmed by a Ukraine presidential aide... Though not really sure what value that has.

 

[A380]

This is, potentially, interesting.

Obvs it's RT, so I don't know where or when it was filmed, and my Russian isn't good enough to do any kind of serious translation. (frogwoman ?)

But. Hodgepodge of uniforms, blokes in their 40's+, some of them a bit porky - these are reservists, and not first line reservists. They might be 20 years from their 2 years as conscripts.

These are C units, properly the dregs of the Russian Army.

Poor fuckers. I obviously want the Ukrainians to beat them, but still. Just another reason wars are so fucking awful.

 

[LDC]

Another analysis by Freedman (Professor of War Studies at KCL) about where the fight is now.

Summary is: not gone well for Russia, choice now between siege or smash the cities with artillery+, and either way makes Putin's position longer term look uncertain.

Russia's Plan C

And Plan D...

samf.substack.com

 

[ska invita]

Another analysis by Freedman (Professor of War Studies at KCL) about where the fight is now.

Summary is: not gone well for Russia, choice now between siege or smash the cities with artillery+, and either way makes Putin's position longer term look uncertain.

Russia's Plan C

And Plan D...

samf.substack.com

a very negative account of the Russian situation. I hope it is really that bad for them.

The piece concludes:
"If there was ever any possibility that this war would end with the complete subjugation of Ukraine by force of arms this has now gone. Nor will it end with Russian forces being chased out of the country. Most likely there will be a negotiated conclusion, probably at the cease-fire talks. "

...the sooner that happens the better. thats why the west needs to stop encouraging the fighting to continue and push for a settlement. I dont see any lipservice to that even.