Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[LDC]

im only going with the clickbait titles they regularly put out to be honest.... I cant actually speak for the content, the couple of times I watched was around the Wagner "coup" ...it was ludicrous to the point of parody...I still see the thumbnails though and I don't think they've changed tack much since then

I agree, The Times coverage is complete clickbait nonsense. I guess lots of this stuff has fallen into the create content for the clicks/money rather than having a good analysis or anything new or interesting to say. The Telegraph, despite it's insane content generally has a pretty thoughtful and useful Ukraine podcast though.

 

[The39thStep]

The39thStep AFAIK they're not really a PMC as such, but a very small group (6 or so) of ex-US military who mostly make money from merchandise, odd Instagram influencers who take snaps in warzones for the airsoft and wannabe types. They have a website selling tshirts etc. (Not to say they don't go places and 'do stuff' but they're not of any political significance really.

Forward Observations Group - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The interviewee isn't speaking about selling T shirts tbh . Perhaps he's egging the pudding however the article and others firmly place them in the Kursk adventure.

 

[LDC]

The interviewee isn't speaking about selling T shirts tbh . Perhaps he's egging the pudding however the article and others firmly place them in the Kursk adventure.

Yeah, they for sure go places and fight (they did in Syria) I'm not disputing that, but they're not any important force either politically or militarily and are not supported, funded or approved by any State or backed by any large company. They're weird 21st century adventurers posting stuff online to sell t-shirts and get the kudos, not a PMC or mercenaries.

I think it's somewhat important as that's a very different story to a US PMC operating in Ukraine and being involved in invading Russia.

 

[The39thStep]

Yeah, they for sure go places and fight (they did in Syria) I'm not disputing that, but they're not any important force either politically or militarily and are not supported, funded or approved by any State or backed by any large company. They're weird 21st century adventurers posting stuff online to sell t-shirts and get the kudos, not a PMC or mercenaries.

I think it's somewhat important as that's a very different story to a US PMC operating in Ukraine and being involved in invading Russia.

No one has alleged who they are or are not funded by etc. Fact is they were there with the AFU in Russia and they have also been in Gaza and Syria.

 

[CNT36]

 

[nogojones]

There has to be easier ways of punting merch.

 

[LDC]

No one has alleged who they are or are not funded by etc. Fact is they were there with the AFU in Russia and they have also been in Gaza and Syria.

Nobody is disputing they were in Syria, Gaza, Russia or Ukraine, but you did call them mercenaries and a PMC and they're neither, imo the distinction is important if you're posting about them in Ukraine & invading Russia. And they're also not contractors as the article called them.

 

[spitfire]

There has to be easier ways of punting merch.

You've obviously never put on a gig in Middlesborough.

 

[The39thStep]

Nobody is disputing they were in Syria, Gaza, Russia or Ukraine, but you did call them mercenaries and a PMC and they're neither, imo the distinction is important if you're posting about them in Ukraine & invading Russia. And they're also not contractors as the article called them.

Can't see this getting anywhere tbh . It's obviously becoming a crowded market for armed combatants, posing for photos and selling T-shirts in Russia. Denis Nikitin/ Kapustin who runs the Russian Volunteer Force has a brand White Rex.

 

[LDC]

I guess why it got/gets my goat is that there's loads of noise about 'NATO mercenaries', US soldiers fighting in Ukraine, etc. from the loon crank left and Russia etc., and stories like that are exactly the type of thing they use to 'prove' their point, so it's annoying when other people do the same. TBH it also feel slightly evasive when it's pointed out they're not what you and the article said they were and you dismiss that, it confuses the issue with this stuff when we need to be careful. But yeah, not going to get very far with (or much point to!) this I imagine.

 

[ska invita]

A couple of bad headlines in the FT today

https://archive.ph/HxD0K

"“Honestly, I have never seen anything like this. Everything is falling apart so quickly,” he warned. “Pokrovsk will fall much faster than Bakhmut did.”

https://archive.ph/WOQFs

"A Ukrainian official said as many as 10 fighter jets and no less than six had been delivered out of the promised 80."

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

A couple of bad headlines in the FT today
View attachment 440392

https://archive.ph/HxD0K

"“Honestly, I have never seen anything like this. Everything is falling apart so quickly,” he warned. “Pokrovsk will fall much faster than Bakhmut did.”

https://archive.ph/WOQFs

"A Ukrainian official said as many as 10 fighter jets and no less than six had been delivered out of the promised 80."

The F-16 crash can be seen in the context of what Russia fired in to Ukraine that day:

• 109 Shahed-136/131 strike drones
• 77 Kh-101 cruise missiles
• 3 Kh-22 cruise missiles
• 28 Kalibr sea based cruise missiles
• 6 Iskander-M ballistic missiles
• 3 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles
• 10 Kh-59/Kh-69 guided air-to-surface missiles

Al Jazeera estimates that little lot cost Russia ~$1.2bn, for one days firing, much of which were intercepted by the F16s and ground based systems. Against that, the tragic loss of one aircraft and pilot doesn't seem so awful.

 

[The39thStep]

I guess why it got/gets my goat is that there's loads of noise about 'NATO mercenaries', US soldiers fighting in Ukraine, etc. from the loon crank left and Russia etc., and stories like that are exactly the type of thing they use to 'prove' their point, so it's annoying when other people do the same. TBH it also feel slightly evasive when it's pointed out they're not what you and the article said they were and you dismiss that, it confuses the issue with this stuff when we need to be careful. But yeah, not going to get very far with (or much point to!) this I imagine.

Can you tag me in , in future, when replying, please?

 

[TopCat]

I guess why it got/gets my goat is that there's loads of noise about 'NATO mercenaries', US soldiers fighting in Ukraine, etc. from the loon crank left and Russia etc., and stories like that are exactly the type of thing they use to 'prove' their point, so it's annoying when other people do the same. TBH it also feel slightly evasive when it's pointed out they're not what you and the article said they were and you dismiss that, it confuses the issue with this stuff when we need to be careful. But yeah, not going to get very far with (or much point to!) this I imagine.

You got to push a pro Ukraine narrative and pointing this stuff out makes doing so harder?

 

[Pickman's model]

The F-16 crash can be seen in the context of what Russia fired in to Ukraine that day:

• 109 Shahed-136/131 strike drones
• 77 Kh-101 cruise missiles
• 3 Kh-22 cruise missiles
• 28 Kalibr sea based cruise missiles
• 6 Iskander-M ballistic missiles
• 3 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles
• 10 Kh-59/Kh-69 guided air-to-surface missiles

Al Jazeera estimates that little lot cost Russia ~$1.2bn, for one days firing, much of which were intercepted by the F16s and ground based systems. Against that, the tragic loss of one aircraft and pilot doesn't seem so awful.

perhaps 10% of the active f-16 force and a pilot who took months to train vs things which the russians can replenish relatively easily and many of which hit something. hmm. it's not like ukraine is awash with unemployed f-16 pilots.

 

[TopCat]

A couple of bad headlines in the FT today
View attachment 440392

https://archive.ph/HxD0K

"“Honestly, I have never seen anything like this. Everything is falling apart so quickly,” he warned. “Pokrovsk will fall much faster than Bakhmut did.”

https://archive.ph/WOQFs

"A Ukrainian official said as many as 10 fighter jets and no less than six had been delivered out of the promised 80."

The morale boost from the Kursk excursion will be more than negated if they can’t supply their troops in the East.

Zelensky never did really explain the goal apart from optimistic hopes of Russia diverting troops and relieving pressure on the eastern front.

 

[DownwardDog]

The F-16 crash can be seen in the context of what Russia fired in to Ukraine that day:

• 109 Shahed-136/131 strike drones
• 77 Kh-101 cruise missiles
• 3 Kh-22 cruise missiles
• 28 Kalibr sea based cruise missiles
• 6 Iskander-M ballistic missiles
• 3 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles
• 10 Kh-59/Kh-69 guided air-to-surface missiles

Al Jazeera estimates that little lot cost Russia ~$1.2bn, for one days firing, much of which were intercepted by the F16s and ground based systems. Against that, the tragic loss of one aircraft and pilot doesn't seem so awful.

The loss of the aircraft is whatever, there's plenty more where that came from, and Ukraine don't pay for them anyway.

However, it takes a year to incubate an F-16 pilot and the Americans are very picky about which Ukrainian crew get admitted to the program so that's a big loss. Particularly as they claim he killed himself through negligence although the Ukrainians lie constantly about everything so who knows.

The underlying issue is that the Ukrainian F-16 squadron is full of novices. The normal composition of a squadron is a mixtures of newbs and old hands to stop the newbs killing themselves through counsel and guidance. Ukraine compounded this issue by only sending first tour pilots to F-16, they didn't retread any MiG-29/Su-27 crew. Not sure why.

 

[Chz]

The loss of the aircraft is whatever, there's plenty more where that came from, and Ukraine don't pay for them anyway.

However, it takes a year to incubate an F-16 pilot and the Americans are very picky about which Ukrainian crew get admitted to the program so that's a big loss. Particularly as they claim he killed himself through negligence although the Ukrainians lie constantly about everything so who knows.

The underlying issue is that the Ukrainian F-16 squadron is full of novices. The normal composition of a squadron is a mixtures of newbs and old hands to stop the newbs killing themselves through counsel and guidance. Ukraine compounded this issue by only sending first tour pilots to F-16, they didn't retread any MiG-29/Su-27 crew. Not sure why.

Oleksiy Mes, the pilot who just died, was a MiG-29 squadron commander before flying F-16s, and 30 years old. Probably not his first tour...

 

[CNT36]

The morale boost from the Kursk excursion will be more than negated if they can’t supply their troops in the East.

Zelensky never did really explain the goal apart from optimistic hopes of Russia diverting troops and relieving pressure on the eastern front.

There are good reasons to not really explain things when fighting a war.

 

[Pickman's model]

There are good reasons to not really explain things when fighting a war.

i think you'll find churchill had a word or two to say on things like operation overlord or the landings at anzio or the victory at el alamein, explaining if nothing else their significance

 

[The39thStep]

The loss of the aircraft is whatever, there's plenty more where that came from, and Ukraine don't pay for them anyway.

However, it takes a year to incubate an F-16 pilot and the Americans are very picky about which Ukrainian crew get admitted to the program so that's a big loss. Particularly as they claim he killed himself through negligence although the Ukrainians lie constantly about everything so who knows.

The underlying issue is that the Ukrainian F-16 squadron is full of novices. The normal composition of a squadron is a mixtures of newbs and old hands to stop the newbs killing themselves through counsel and guidance. Ukraine compounded this issue by only sending first tour pilots to F-16, they didn't retread any MiG-29/Su-27 crew. Not sure why.

Who is saying 'he killed himself through negligence?'

 

[WouldBe]

it's not like ukraine is awash with unemployed f-16 pilots.

They have been promised 80 f-16's so would be daft to only train a handful of pilots.

 

[TopCat]

Who is saying 'he killed himself through negligence?'

A bit ungrateful no?

 

[TopCat]

The plan for Kursk, unrevealed like the plan for victory, is causing problems at home. Russian advances prompt public criticism of Ukraine’s Kursk push

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Who is saying 'he killed himself through negligence?'

Seems friendly fire most likely, shot down by a Patriot battery.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Russia bombs a playground, kills 14 year old girl

Ukraine war: Girl, 14, killed as Russian strike hits Kharkiv playground

The strikes, which left at least five other dead, also hit a 12-storey building in the eastern city.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Russia taking 100 soldiers from Burkina Faso to Kursk

Burkina Faso: Russia's Bear Brigade troops to leave for Ukraine war

The Russian mercenaries were helping Burkina Faso fight Islamist insurgents, who recently staged a huge attack.

www.bbc.co.uk

Not cos they're running out of soldiers locally or owt, of course.

 

[Pickman's model]

They have been promised 80 f-16's so would be daft to only train a handful of pilots.

And if one f-16 should accidentally fall...

 

[kebabking]

Zelensky has sacked the head of the Ukrainian Air Force - looks like the F-16 was shot down by a Ukrainian SAM while shooting down subsonic UAV's at night.

There have been some very poor decisions made in Kyiv...

The decision to use the F-16's in that way - given the endless integration problems of operating fighters and SAM's in the same airspace - was courageous, and there are better uses for an F-16 than lopping off UAV's. Could be political pressure from Zelensky, could be Oleschuck making that decision on his own...

Given the issues with the Kursk offensive (which I think was a good idea - but it hasn't had the effect on this occasion that must have been hoped for, as well as it's continuing nature draining Ukraine's land power in the east) I'm tempted to imagine that this is a Zelensky problem - only Zelensky has the authority to keep that operation going.

We'll find out in time...

 

[ska invita]

Cant pick out a bit to quote as it's disaster after disaster

Zelenskiy fires head of air force after fatal crash of donated F-16 fighter jet

Mykola Oleshchuk’s dismissal thought to be linked to death of pilot and loss of plane newly delivered to Ukraine

www.theguardian.com

Sending new forced young recruits to the frontline with no training is the worst of it in there for me