Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[Elpenor]

You are effectively killing people, Helping Putin. Undermining Zelensky.

Helping Zelensky will also result in killing people.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Helping Zelensky will also result in killing people.

Tricky to work out how the killing can end, isn’t it.

A: Russia can take it’s army back to Russia and stop killing Ukrainians

B: What?

 

[mojo pixy]

North Korea eh.

I'm sure someone will be along soon to explain how the DPRK is misunderstood and unfairly stigmatised, a victim of degenerate western imperialism, aggression and blatant wokery.

I'm certainly not worried! Nothing to see here.

 

[Elpenor]

Tricky to work out how the killing can end, isn’t it.

A: Russia can take it’s army back to Russia and stop killing Ukrainians

B: What?

I’ve been pretty clear on this thread that I support an immediate ceasefire and peace discussions, and dont want another death on either side.

I also recognise this is unlikely to happen as it involves Ukraine trading land already lost - with little chance of recovery - to prevent more deaths, and let’s face it both leaders have a last man, last round approach to this conflict.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

I’ve been pretty clear on this thread that I support an immediate ceasefire and peace discussions, and dont want another death on either side.

I also recognise this is unlikely to happen as it involves Ukraine trading land already lost - with little chance of recovery - to prevent more deaths, and let’s face it both leaders have a last man, last round approach to this conflict.

OK, so look at a couple of places where Putin has invaded neighbours in the past, had his army ravage, kill and rape across the land, turning the cities in to rubble until a ceasefire was enacted:

Georgia
Chechnya

Did the killing stop?

 

[TopCat]

Same sad sack that got thrown out for being the internet hard man, making this thread actually work for a few weeks whilst your pathetic presence was banned.

The thread doesn’t “work” better when dissenters from the war get banned.

 

[TopCat]

Fuck it, as Frau Bahn has just pointed out, odd that there’s no women cheering on these raping fash invaders.

Doesn’t appear to be any women cheering on the western efforts.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

The thread doesn’t “work” better when dissenters from the war get banned.

It works better when silly wankstains don't threaten to break the jaws of posters on this thread.

 

[TopCat]

It works better when silly wankstains don't threaten to break the jaws of posters on this thread.

Loads of keyboard warriors on the thread.

 

[TopCat]

You dish it out, eat it up.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

You dish it out, eat it up.

Grow up.

 

[TopCat]

Fash arselicker, Muppet, blah blah fuck off, silly wankstains.

Were you all drunk last night?

 

[TopCat]

You can’t complain surely after the abuse you dished out?

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

You can’t complain surely after the abuse you dished out?

What, internet threats of violence are acceptable to you?

 

[Silas Loom]

It’s difficult to believe that North Korean kit is any good. They aren’t actually at war so they are stockpiling materiel out of paranoia, and their industrial base is rubbish for all the obvious reasons. So the main outcome of Russia getting a load of North Korean shells would presumably be that more Russian artillery and gun crews would explode.

But. Is the actual deal that Russia gets Chinese kit through a North Korean back channel? That would be more concerning.

 

[Elpenor]

It’s difficult to believe that North Korean kit is any good. They aren’t actually at war so they are stockpiling materiel out of paranoia, and their industrial base is rubbish for all the obvious reasons. So the main outcome of Russia getting a load of North Korean shells would presumably be that more Russian artillery and gun crews would explode.

But. Is the actual deal that Russia gets Chinese kit through a North Korean back channel? That would be more concerning.

North Korea is - famously - still in a state of war with South Korea

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

It’s difficult to believe that North Korean kit is any good. They aren’t actually at war so they are stockpiling materiel out of paranoia, and their industrial base is rubbish for all the obvious reasons. So the main outcome of Russia getting a load of North Korean shells would presumably be that more Russian artillery and gun crews would explode.

But. Is the actual deal that Russia gets Chinese kit through a North Korean back channel? That would be more concerning.

Some of their missiles have already been fired at Ukraine: https://www.reuters.com/world/un-experts-say-north-korea-missile-landed-ukraines-kharkiv-2024-04-29/

 

[Silas Loom]

North Korea is - famously - still in a state of war with South Korea

Not a shooting one.

Maybe they will send Ukraine some of their poo balloons.

 

[Rob Ray]

FT investigation finds some of the kids Russia took, placed on adoption sites.

 

[TopCat]

What, internet threats of violence are acceptable to you?

Maybe your mum might sympathise?

 

[Chz]

Oh FFS, it takes two to tango. You're all enabling this unpleasant digression.

 

[Pickman's model]

OK, so look at a couple of places where Putin has invaded neighbours in the past, had his army ravage, kill and rape across the land, turning the cities in to rubble until a ceasefire was enacted:

Georgia
Chechnya

Did the killing stop?

If you go down that route then our peace-loving government is one of the worst offenders in places such as Libya. It's precedents like that, like Iraq and like Afghanistan that ease russia's propaganda efforts.

 

[Pickman's model]

Tricky to work out how the killing can end, isn’t it.

A: Russia can take it’s army back to Russia and stop killing Ukrainians

B: What?

Only a callow neophyte would honestly suggest withdrawing Russian forces would end the killing. Rather, it would be the start of a new bloodbath in eastern Ukraine as kyiv's forces exacted a bloody toll on people deemed collaborators. It's pie in the sky stuff to suggest that's the only way the war stops, to bring Russian forces home. However this war ends there is zero chance of it being a unilateral Russian decision either formally by putin's diktat or informally as the army dissolves

 

[Chz]

Even without killing, any outcome of this war is likely to see mass forced migration take place. Which, while it isn't genocide is extremely unpleasant for those forced to go through with it.
ETA: And if they split up families from their children, that is considered a trait of genocide.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

If you go down that route then our peace-loving government is one of the worst offenders in places such as Libya. It's precedents like that, like Iraq and like Afghanistan that ease russia's propaganda efforts.

Only a callow neophyte would honestly suggest withdrawing Russian forces would end the killing. Rather, it would be the start of a new bloodbath in eastern Ukraine as kyiv's forces exacted a bloody toll on people deemed collaborators. It's pie in the sky stuff to suggest that's the only way the war stops, to bring Russian forces home. However this war ends there is zero chance of it being a unilateral Russian decision either formally by putin's diktat or informally as the army dissolves

In that case, fuck it, let the slaughter roll on then

 

[Pickman's model]

In that case, fuck it, let the slaughter roll on then

I didn't have any great expectations of a thoughtful response from you. There are obvs ways in which this war will end, starting with behind the scenes negotiations, some sort of shuttle diplomacy where another government acts as a go-between and so forth.

But there are issues at both the kyiv and moscow ends. For me it's increasingly likely that zelensky won't be in charge when any peace is negotiated let alone concluded. And there are clear issues in putin's trustworthiness. We've discussed those ad nauseam. But z can't expect to be president for the duration, for the duration. He might make it another year, maybe, but I reckon by this time next year if he hasn't departed he will soon. I wonder how the next president will pursue these matters

 

[Fez909]

OK, so look at a couple of places where Putin has invaded neighbours in the past, had his army ravage, kill and rape across the land, turning the cities in to rubble until a ceasefire was enacted:

Georgia
Chechnya

Did the killing stop?

Did a bit of reading on Chechnya as I was curious.

No, the killing did not stop. And people who surrendered under the 'amnesty' agreements were "abducted, tortured and killed". source

It's amazing how similar the rhetoric around the invasion in Ukraine and Chechnya is.

On December 9, 1999, at a meeting with Li Peng, People's Republic of China's legislative chairman and the communist government's most hard-line leader, Boris Yeltsin told reporters he wanted to send a message to Clinton, who had criticized Russia for causing civilian casualties in Chechnya. "It seems Mr. Clinton has forgotten Russia is a great power that possesses a nuclear arsenal. We aren't afraid at all of Clinton's anti-Russian position. I want to tell President Clinton that he alone cannot dictate how the world should live, work and play. It is us who will dictate," Yeltsin said. Yeltsin and President of the People's Republic of China Jiang Zemin discussed and both criticized U.S. global dominance. "Jiang Zemin completely understands and fully supports Russia's actions in combatting terrorism and extremism in Chechnya," Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov said afterwards. Chinese Foreign Ministry said that China "understands and supports the efforts made by Russia in safeguarding national unity and territorial integrity."

 

[JimW]

Not sure if we've had this, opinion survey conducted in March after reverses in Avdiivka still saw most Ukrainians still upbeat about war prospects. Younger people tend to be more pessimistic, those who've fought "pessimistic but determined":

https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/06/ukraine-public-opinion-russia-war?lang=en

For President Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukrainian society’s resilience and optimism are both an asset and a liability. Russia’s attempts to force Ukrainians to capitulate to its demands have clearly failed. Zelensky can credibly argue to Ukraine’s partners that his war strategy has widespread domestic support. At the same time, Ukrainians’ high expectations create the potential for widespread disappointment if the war culminates in an outcome short of total battlefield victory and territorial liberation. As he struggles with a precarious situation on the front and tough decisions about a further mobilization of troops, Zelensky will have to balance between bolstering society’s morale and offering realistic assessments of what can be achieved.

...further analysis and more targeted questioning shows that support for negotiations is largely theoretical. The share of Ukrainians who preferred seeking a compromise to end the war through negotiations fell from 43 percent in the yes or no question to 26 percent when respondents were asked to choose between negotiating with Russia and continuing to fight. Most Ukrainians who expressed openness to negotiate appeared to envision a scenario in which Kyiv was in a favorable enough position to demand the full withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukrainian territory, the prosecution of Russian officials for war crimes, reparations, and other conditions that are nonstarters for the Kremlin.

 

[TopCat]

In that case, fuck it, let the slaughter roll on then

Don’t you want it to end?

 

[SpookyFrank]

Only a callow neophyte would honestly suggest withdrawing Russian forces would end the killing. Rather, it would be the start of a new bloodbath in eastern Ukraine as kyiv's forces exacted a bloody toll on people deemed collaborators.

They probably should've thought of that before they collaborated.

But seriously, I don't think you've got any evidence that a victorious Ukraine would suddenly develop a taste for war crimes.