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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

Putin says there will be a ceasefire if the Donbas region of Ukraine is annexed by Russia. Unfortunately, that cannot happen. That is contrary to the territorial integrity of Ukraine that Putin owns about Russia. However, the Donbas region with a majority Russian population could be availed an autonomous or devolved government with an alliance of Russia. That has to be a civilised international agreement. One-third of the population in Donbas prefers an alliance with the West and EU. That alliance has to be accommodated in some form of sharing of international relations. Putin has no claim for a vassal state of Ukraine. Putin’s demand for neutrality in Ukraine may be granted. I do not think Ukraine joining NATO ten years from now is a reality or necessity provided Russia ends its hostility to Ukraine and establishes friendly relations with Ukraine, and compensates for the war crimes and destruction. Instead of war-mongering the West and EU can ensure the security and territorial integrity of Russia if Putin cooperates and abandons his outlandish political ideologies such as the Russian empire.
 
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Ukraine isn’t going to issue any demands other than Russia fucking off out of its country, though. Not unless and until there is much less reason for optimism.

Ukraine haven't made any significant territorial gains since September 2022, their economy is destroyed, the east of the country is in ruins, Zelensky's democratic mandate has expired and they've had X00,000 people killed.

Where is the source of optimism?
 
Ukraine haven't made any significant territorial gains since September 2022, their economy is destroyed, the east of the country is in ruins, Zelensky's democratic mandate has expired and they've had X00,000 people killed.

Where is the source of optimism?

One source of optimism is that Western support and sanctions on Russia are both increasing, if far more slowly than they should, and that they should eventually reach a level at which Russia will find it impossible to defend the territory it has appropriated.

There are more. Zelensky has still not been murdered, the west of the country has still not been invaded, and of course the Black Sea is clear for grain exports and coastal towns aren’t being shelled too badly while Russian ships aren’t safe anywhere near the Ukrainian coastline, Sevastopol included.

Better than one would have hoped for when Russian tanks were first advancing on Kyiv, surely?
 
Putin's palace in Altai, the one he pretends is a Gazprom sanitorium that for some reasons needs the presidential guard to be stationed there, it caught fire yesterday. More clumsy smokers I guess...

Yesterday, I learnt from the Guardian that Farage has only got one testicle. Today I learnt from this unimpeachable source that the allegedly secret but flammable presidential palace has a bath where Putin can bathe in antler extracts.


The media also claims that the complex includes a special farm with a smallholding for extracting the antler of maral deer, which, as Russian media previously reported, can be used by Putin to bathe in
 
Not entirely convinced about that tbh, Russia's just spent the last three years rebuilding its economy around war production and now has a large veteran army as opposed to a large inept one. The temptation could easily be there to start another war to stave off economic problems.
It's good to know that those Russians soldiers who are still dying in vast numbers are veterans who are not doing so ineptly, but presumably with a degree of skill and panache.
 
So, our Urban experts sayy that one great leader is depressed because he lives underground and has little contact with the folk being bombed in the city above his head and the other because he vlives in gloomy isolation in a Siberian bunker.

Both need cheering up. Perhaps we should crowdfund a box set of Zelensky Dvds from his time on the comedy circuit to be sent to Putin, and to a bottle of Vladimir the Pink's Maral deer pantocrine compound to be sent to Zelensky.


 

A joint communique on Sunday is expected to centre on the importance of the UN principles on maintaining and respecting “sovereignty and territorial integrity”.

While this is not seen as advancing peace in itself, it is designed to “reduce the space for any unhelpful initiatives”, say those with knowledge of the conference.
 
BBC article on Ukraine's peace proposals

"The meeting on Lake Lucerne will home in on three of the least contentious points in President Zelensky’s peace formula: the issues of nuclear security, getting food to global markets and getting abducted Ukrainian children and prisoners back home.

Straying beyond that is unlikely to be productive."


Full list of Ukraine's demands :

 
They are certainly the nearest to being pro-war, but I don't think they actually are, more just naive.
I don't agree with them but I don't think that's true. More like they are much more realistic about the eventual outcome :( .

I've recently been seeing their posts as a balance to the great number of posts on the thread hoping for a Ukrainian win, which I assume they also really want (if they can put aside the temptation to view a Russian win as "well I told you so").
 
I don't agree with them but I don't think that's true. More like they are much more realistic about the eventual outcome :( .

I've recently been seeing their posts as a balance to the great number of posts on the thread hoping for a Ukrainian win, which I assume they also really want (if they can put aside the temptation to view a Russian win as "well I told you so").

That’s an extremely generous assumption. I think they’d be very upset by a win for expansionist NATO aggressors and the Banderite Kyiv regime.
 
They want Russia to win a war that was started by Russia, and could be ended instantly by Russia. That's 100%, absolutely, bang the fuck on, pro war.

The naivety is in the reasoning behind their positions, but it's still nailed-on pro-war
So many posters are bang-on pro-war. Emanymton is a bit of an outlier in slagging off posts that simply ask what kyiv might demand for peace but many other posters aren't that far behind him.
 
They want Russia to win a war that was started by Russia, and could be ended instantly by Russia. That's 100%, absolutely, bang the fuck on, pro war.

The naivety is in the reasoning behind their positions, but it's still nailed-on pro-war.
I've a fair notion you'd despise anyone in kyiv if they suggested they might settle for less than the restoration of 2013 borders. It's that maximalist position which fuels the war, be it putin wanting obeisance from kyiv or zelensky wanting everything as it was before the seizure of land in 2014. Few posters on this thread are calling for peace tbh
 
This is just fucking vile, you should be ashamed of yourself.
I dont know what you're so upset about, its a serious question. Have a go at answering it.
Theres a "ten-point plan" Zelensky has put on the table and I'm asking anyone prepared to answer how "serious" or "achievable" this plan is. The Russian demands are overegged but ultimately boil down to recognising the annexed territories they occupy.

Ukraine today (as opposed to the early days of the war) now has very specific demands, including Russia giving up Crimea. At the start of the war it was reported that a peace deal including additional loss of territory (Crimea already considered gone) was on the cards. It is also reported that it was our very own military genius "Bo Jo" who played a key role in spiking that accord.

Now this weekend there is a yet another Ukrainian "peace conference", actually a war escalation conference, the attempt of which is to cement these (to my eye clearly unachievable) goals including retaking Crimea. Despite Zelensky's attempted blackmailing (posted upthread) Biden isn't going to it as it is basically a waste of everyone's time beyond symbolism.

The Guardian reporting has this choice comment: " While this is not seen as advancing peace in itself, it is designed to “reduce the space for any unhelpful initiatives”, say those with knowledge of the conference. "

My position is one of realism, something that used to be considered essential in war, to avoid exactly what is happening: endless extension of a conflict with no realistic end-game, to achieve no material gain at the price of ever more murderous killing and destruction
 
One source of optimism is that Western support and sanctions on Russia are both increasing, if far more slowly than they should, and that they should eventually reach a level at which Russia will find it impossible to defend the territory it has appropriated.

There are more. Zelensky has still not been murdered, the west of the country has still not been invaded, and of course the Black Sea is clear for grain exports and coastal towns aren’t being shelled too badly while Russian ships aren’t safe anywhere near the Ukrainian coastline, Sevastopol included.

Better than one would have hoped for when Russian tanks were first advancing on Kyiv, surely?
I'm curious where you think Ukraine is going to find the men to take back occupied land. Do you think nato countries will supply them alongside himars?
 
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