Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[Rimbaud]

just because the oven is on, doesnt mean the cake is cooked.

Just because the oven is on doesn't mean that there's a cake inside it either.

 

[Pickman's model]

I said modernity not modernism because I meant modern in a general sense, not modernism which has a more specific meaning. By which I mean that they are prosperous and technologically developed. So it's an authoritarian form of modernity, in contrast to the 90 and 00s liberal assumptions that democracy and modernisation go hand in hand. My whole point is that while this may have had some truth in the 20th Century, neoliberal globalisation has created a situation which favours authoritarian states due to their enhanced ability to create investment-friendly environments and heightened ability to exploit their workforces.

yeh. there are words if you wish to convey that meaning - contemporary, for example. as opposed to modernity, which as you well know obscures rather than illuminates the sense you wish to convey - for example, marshall berman's famous book on modernist life all that is solid melts into air continues its title the experience of modernity.

this is all of a piece with your rather idiosyncratic language where neo-medievalism, for example, means something different to you than it does to the coiner of the term. and tbh places like the uae may be awash with money in some quarters but large, and sometimes very large, proportions of the population see very little of it. where is the truth the democracy and modernism go hand in hand? as far as i can see it's always been bollocks.

the simple fact of the matter is that the western nations described as democracies have long had a penchant for dealing very happily with absolute monarchies, which is - not to beat about the bush - what the gulf states are. they are absolute monarchies with a fuckton of money, they're not some authoritarian form of modernity. china is, i'll give you that, but once again you lump together apples and oranges and describe them all as oranges. what has happened in recent years is nothing new - see, for example, the way in which nazi germany was able to boost its economy at a time when many other countries were greatly struggling.

 

[Pickman's model]

Just because the oven is on doesn't mean that there's a cake inside it either.

that the lights are on is no guarantee that anyone's at home

 

[Rimbaud]

yeh. there are words if you wish to convey that meaning - contemporary, for example. as opposed to modernity, which as you well know obscures rather than illuminates the sense you wish to convey - for example, marshall berman's famous book on modernist life all that is solid melts into air continues its title the experience of modernity.

this is all of a piece with your rather idiosyncratic language where neo-medievalism, for example, means something different to you than it does to the coiner of the term. and tbh places like the uae may be awash with money in some quarters but large, and sometimes very large, proportions of the population see very little of it. where is the truth the democracy and modernism go hand in hand? as far as i can see it's always been bollocks.

the simple fact of the matter is that the western nations described as democracies have long had a penchant for dealing very happily with absolute monarchies, which is - not to beat about the bush - what the gulf states are. they are absolute monarchies with a fuckton of money, they're not some authoritarian form of modernity. china is, i'll give you that, but once again you lump together apples and oranges and describe them all as oranges. what has happened in recent years is nothing new - see, for example, the way in which nazi germany was able to boost its economy at a time when many other countries were greatly struggling.

I think you haven't really understood where I'm coming from, perhaps I haven't explained it clearly enough but I feel we are started to derail the thread even more than it has been already. Maybe I will start a separate discussion when I find time to write things out clearly.

 

[TopCat]

Can we actually discus what’s happening with the war? There is a tangent thread if you want it.

 

[existentialist]

When I subscribed to this thread, it was mainly to get updates on what was happening in Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It's gone through phases of being full of heat and light, and not much information, but was still somewhat useful for that purpose. It seems to have sunk below the line, now.

I dare say I've played my own small part in that, but the thread is now completely futile as far as its original function was concerned, so with some regret, I'm baling out.

 

[DownwardDog]

Can we actually discus what’s happening with the war? There is a tangent thread if you want it.

Not much is happening with the war. Broken Back War that Ukraine is very slowly losing.

 

[Elpenor]

When I subscribed to this thread, it was mainly to get updates on what was happening in Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It's gone through phases of being full of heat and light, and not much information, but was still somewhat useful for that purpose. It seems to have sunk below the line, now.

I dare say I've played my own small part in that, but the thread is now completely futile as far as its original function was concerned, so with some regret, I'm baling out.

Is that the second time you’ve done that in the last week or so, do they cancel each other out

I just hope the war ends asap and the killing stops So many wasted lives

 

[discokermit]

so with some regret, I'm baling out.

again?

 

[two sheds]

well if there's a hole in the boat you have to keep bailing.

 

[Rob Ray]

There some speculation going on that Iran vs Israel could do a number on Russia's drone supplies I suppose, but other than that it's mostly just Russia bombing the shit out civilian infrastucture..

 

[discokermit]

There some speculation going on that Iran vs Israel could do a number on Russia's drone supplies I suppose.

aren't russia making their own versions of iranian drones now?

 

[Silas Loom]

There some speculation going on that Iran vs Israel could do a number on Russia's drone supplies I suppose, but other than that it's mostly just Russia bombing the shit out civilian infrastucture..

Russia are making their own Shahed drones now, though, aren’t they? Might be that some crucial components still come via Iran, so a massive Iranian effort to stockpile replacements could have some repercussions on the Russian supply chain.

 

[Chz]

There some speculation going on that Iran vs Israel could do a number on Russia's drone supplies I suppose, but other than that it's mostly just Russia bombing the shit out civilian infrastucture..

Somewhat, but the Iranians have opened a factory in Russia (or rather, licensed one to be built) now so it will have only a limited effect. Russia can make quite a few of them on their lonesome, unfortunately.

Edit: Ninja'ed while distracted.

 

[Pickman's model]

There some speculation going on that Iran vs Israel could do a number on Russia's drone supplies I suppose, but other than that it's mostly just Russia bombing the shit out civilian infrastucture..

tbh iran have shedloads of drones. however, the distance between iran and any likely zionist targets means that drones are less likely to be useful in any conflict between the zionist entity and the islamic republic than they are in ukraine. true, we don't know how many, if any, have been transported to lebanon or syria. but we do know hezbollah have a fuck ton of rockets and it's those which would likely be used in at least the early stages of any wider war involving iran's allies in the region.

 

[Pickman's model]

well if there's a hole in the boat you have to keep bailing.

but it's better, where possible, to patch it dear lisa

 

[TopCat]

Not much is happening with the war. Broken Back War that Ukraine is very slowly losing.

Lots is happening. Ukraine energy facilities getting destroyed causing massive blackouts.

Ukraine suffering lack of ammo and troops.

Russia advancing but how far will they go? Odessa?

Political spats at the top in Ukraine, will Zelensky get toppled?

You can’t just stop discussing the subject cos Ukraine are losing. There are huge implications.

 

[TopCat]

When I subscribed to this thread, it was mainly to get updates on what was happening in Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It's gone through phases of being full of heat and light, and not much information, but was still somewhat useful for that purpose. It seems to have sunk below the line, now.

I dare say I've played my own small part in that, but the thread is now completely futile as far as its original function was concerned, so with some regret, I'm baling out.

You only sing when your winning

 

[discokermit]

You only sing when your winning

the ukrainians were beat from the get go.

 

[kebabking]

Lots is happening. Ukraine energy facilities getting destroyed causing massive blackouts.

Ukraine suffering lack of ammo and troops.

Russia advancing but how far will they go? Odessa?

Political spats at the top in Ukraine, will Zelensky get toppled?

You can’t just stop discussing the subject cos Ukraine are losing. There are huge implications.

There are.

Ukraine will - to my mind - undoubtedly lose this year's war. Ukraine is pretty (but not certainly) unlikely to make any but the smallest gains - a village here, a town there - while Russia is likely to make more significant gains. It is possible that Russia will be able to mass enough force in particular areas to force a Ukrainian collapse in those areas, but I don't see Blitzkrieg 2.0 happening - it's very unlikely to be about armoured thrusts racing 50km ahead, but regular, incremental, smallish gains. It's going to be far more like Belgium in 1916 than Russia in 1941. Both sides are going to be infantry and artillery focused, both will burn through artillery and people like it's going out of fashion.

Ukraine is going to have to have a serious conversation in the Autumn about to what degree it continues to fight - which, of course, will also be predicated on the US presidential election, and to what extent European munitions and equipment support ramps up - they may, for example, decide that they can't maintain their existing line, and that they have to vacate large swathes of territory.

Framing the above however is not peace or war, it's war or gulag, and they have experience of the Gulag state within living memory...

The big consequence for Europe is what happens when the Ukrainian forces start to collapse across a wide front. What will Poland do? What will France do? What will happen to NATO if/when Trump wins, and there's a huge argument within European NATO about what to do about Ukraine - because for Poland, for the Baltics, they are adamant that if Russia takes Ukraine (and there are a number of different ways that might look), they are next. They believe that like they believe the sun will rise in the morning, and western Europeans saying it won't happen cut no ice with them. Their view - and this a societal view, not some niche political/military view - is that either you fight Russia in Ukraine, or you fight it in Poland and the Baltic states.

I am pretty certain that unless there is a sea change in the amount, and nature of the support Ukraine gets, it will lose - that's bad for Ukraine, but much more importantly it will, imv, almost guarantee a Russia- Europe war across eastern Europe which will probably go nuclear.

 

[discokermit]

if poland and the baltics are stupid enough to go to ukraine, they will get beat there and no need for nukes.

 

[andysays]

There are.

Ukraine will - to my mind - undoubtedly lose this year's war. Ukraine is pretty (but not certainly) unlikely to make any but the smallest gains - a village here, a town there - while Russia is likely to make more significant gains. It is possible that Russia will be able to mass enough force in particular areas to force a Ukrainian collapse in those areas, but I don't see Blitzkrieg 2.0 happening - it's very unlikely to be about armoured thrusts racing 50km ahead, but regular, incremental, smallish gains. It's going to be far more like Belgium in 1916 than Russia in 1941. Both sides are going to be infantry and artillery focused, both will burn through artillery and people like it's going out of fashion.

Ukraine is going to have to have a serious conversation in the Autumn about to what degree it continues to fight - which, of course, will also be predicated on the US presidential election, and to what extent European munitions and equipment support ramps up - they may, for example, decide that they can't maintain their existing line, and that they have to vacate large swathes of territory.

Framing the above however is not peace or war, it's war or gulag, and they have experience of the Gulag state within living memory...

The big consequence for Europe is what happens when the Ukrainian forces start to collapse across a wide front. What will Poland do? What will France do? What will happen to NATO if/when Trump wins, and there's a huge argument within European NATO about what to do about Ukraine - because for Poland, for the Baltics, they are adamant that if Russia takes Ukraine (and there are a number of different ways that might look), they are next. They believe that like they believe the sun will rise in the morning, and western Europeans saying it won't happen cut no ice with them. Their view - and this a societal view, not some niche political/military view - is that either you fight Russia in Ukraine, or you fight it in Poland and the Baltic states.

I am pretty certain that unless there is a sea change in the amount, and nature of the support Ukraine gets, it will lose - that's bad for Ukraine, but much more importantly it will, imv, almost guarantee a Russia- Europe war across eastern Europe which will probably go nuclear.

I agree with the first half of your post, but I'm less sure about the second half.

Poland and the Baltic states may want to fight in Ukraine to lessen the chances of having to fight on home turf, but that's not the way NATO works.

NATO would have to respond to an actual invasion of Poland or the Baltic states, or any of their other members, but I'm not convinced they're going to launch an attack on Russian forces in Ukraine in an attempt to preempt such a possible invasion.

 

[Pickman's model]

i'm fucking sick of the auld chinese curse

 

[TopCat]

I recollect well pages of stupid speculation about Putins health, the likelihood of Russian lines falling apart, Russia itself breaking up into warring factions. How jolly was the chat. Now it’s just blood bone and death and pro Ukraine/West posters go quiet or leave or want to discuss something else.

 

[editor]

I really can't understand why anyone should think that an illegally invading force committing war crimes on a near-daily basis should be rewarded with stolen land. And if Russia do succeed, they'll have contributed to worsening global security for millions of civilians. Fuck Putin and his supporters.

 

[Raheem]

I recollect well pages of stupid speculation about Putins health, the likelihood of Russian lines falling apart, Russia itself breaking up into warring factions.

Now it's similar, but reversed.

 

[Pickman's model]

I really can't understand why anyone should think that an illegally invading force committing war crimes on a near-daily basis should be rewarded with stolen land. And if Russia do succeed, they'll have contributed to worsening global security for millions of civilians. Fuck Putin and his supporters.

It'd be an interesting return to days of yore if this were the case, if Russian veterans were rewarded as roman troops were with grants of land on their departure from the army

 

[andysays]

I really can't understand why anyone should think that an illegally invading force committing war crimes on a near-daily basis should be rewarded with stolen land. And if Russia do succeed, they'll have contributed to worsening global security for millions of civilians. Fuck Putin and his supporters.

It's not really about whether an illegally invading force committing war crimes on a near-daily basis should be rewarded with stolen land, it's about what people think is a realistic outcome of the war.

Many people on this thread, including yourself, still seem unable to recognise that a post suggesting that Ukraine is unlikely to be able to expel the invading Russian forces doesn't automatically mean that the poster is supporting Putin.

 

[editor]

It's not really about whether an illegally invading force committing war crimes on a near-daily basis should be rewarded with stolen land, it's about what people think is a realistic outcome of the war.

Many people on this thread, including yourself, still seem unable to recognise that a post suggesting that Ukraine is unlikely to be able to expel the invading Russian forces doesn't automatically mean that the poster is supporting Putin.

That's not what I think at all, but no matter. But there has definitely been some cheer-leading for Russia, usually taking the form of revelling in Ukrainian losses.

 

[emanymton]

Many people on this thread, including yourself, still seem unable to recognise that a post suggesting that Ukraine is unlikely to be able to expel the invading Russian forces doesn't automatically mean that the poster is supporting Putin.

But that's just ot true is it. Despite his last post no one would suggest kebabking supports Russia. It's about far more than that. For one thing there is the complete absence of any criticism of Russia or condemnation of Russia war crimes from some posters.