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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

kabbes said:
I don’t think by any means that it is obvious how things play out from here. One thing I’ve learnt from a career in risk modelling and management is that the thing that happens is frequently not the anticipated path — indeed, 50% of the time it will not be in the middle 50%.

To those arguing that there will inevitably be a long-term Russian grind to victory, I’ll remind you that Russia ultimately got out of Afghanistan, the USSR eventually imploded and Vladimir Putin is 71 years of age in a capital city where life expectancy is mid-70s. Events happen and circumstances change. Much of what causes this to change is hidden until it happens. There is always hope for the Ukrainians as long as they can hold out.
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To those arguing that there will inevitably be a long-term American grind to victory, I’ll remind you that USA ultimately got out of Afghanistan, the USA hasn't imploded though with the opiate epidemic, for-profit healthcare amid a global pandemic, climate change, migration, mass shootings, police violence, suicide and other deaths of despair, and the 6th January insurrection? Joe Biden is 81 years of age in a capital city where life expectancy has been declining, more so if you're black or hispanic. Donald Trump may or may not get a second bite of the apple. Events happen and circumstances change. Much of what causes this to change is hidden until it happens. There is always hope for the Ukrainians as long as they can hold out.
 
The39thStep said:
I had some agreement with you until I suddenly and unexpectedly arrived at ‘What if Ukrainian nationalists in WW2 were not so very different in their behaviour from Russian troops?’

I might have misunderstood the context of your remarks however my first thoughts were about the role of these Ukrainian nationalists in the Holocaust.
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Re-read Primo Levi's If Not Now, When while back home just and definitely get the impression the Jewish partisans, while beset from all sides, were especially wary of Ukrainians.
 
Pickman's model said:
It's easy to be a jingo when you're a thousand miles from the fighting
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No one I've met has been a jingo. The world isnt black and white surprisingly. Ukranians can be against war and violence and imperialism and even NATO and yet still overall support violence and resistance against an illegal invasion. While not personally wanting to be there... for various reasons.

Easy for you to make such glib comments when you havent had friends and family displaced, killed, injured, affected psychologically, arrested, tortured, raped etc.
 
The39thStep said:
I had some agreement with you until I suddenly and unexpectedly arrived at ‘What if Ukrainian nationalists in WW2 were not so very different in their behaviour from Russian troops?’

I might have misunderstood the context of your remarks however my first thoughts were about the role of these Ukrainian nationalists in the Holocaust.
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Just to make it clear, Bandera and his followers were mass-murdering bastards of the first water and were directly responsible for the killing of thousands of Jews. Undeniable. They also killed huge numbers of Poles, men, women and children. (Also, incidentally, thousands of German soldiers). But the Russian army also killed tens of thousands of Poles, immediately after they first invaded Poland in alliance with Germany and then again later when they reconquered Poland at the end of the war. The Russian army also took part in the forced deportations of so many minority nationalities during and at the end of WW2. Ethnic Germans, Crimean Tatars, Greeks, Crimean Italians, Bulgarians, Muslim Armenians, Finns, Chechens, Ingush, Kalmyk Mongols, Balkars, Karachays, Meshketian Turks, Laz and others. As well as large numbers of Latvians, Estonians, Lithuanians and Ukrainians. As you probably know these deportations resulted in huge loss of life from extrajudicial or punishment killings, through to deaths from hunger, thirst, malnutrition and medical neglect. Then there was the mass rape of German (and Polish women) at the end of the war.

So I'm not supporting Ukrainian nationalist atrocities, but let's not forget what the Russians did. (Let's not forget their domestic mass murder before WW2 either). The past atrocities of one group do not excuse the past or current atrocities of another.
 
yield said:
To those arguing that there will inevitably be a long-term American grind to victory, I’ll remind you that USA ultimately got out of Afghanistan, the USA hasn't imploded though with the opiate epidemic, for-profit healthcare amid a global pandemic, climate change, migration, mass shootings, police violence, suicide and other deaths of despair, and the 6th January insurrection? Joe Biden is 81 years of age in a capital city where life expectancy has been declining, more so if you're black or hispanic. Donald Trump may or may not get a second bite of the apple. Events happen and circumstances change. Much of what causes this to change is hidden until it happens. There is always hope for the Ukrainians as long as they can hold out.
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Did you miss the bit where I pointed out that it’s impossible to know what will happen from here. You’re literally underlining my very point.
 
The39thStep said:
I had some agreement with you until I suddenly and unexpectedly arrived at ‘What if Ukrainian nationalists in WW2 were not so very different in their behaviour from Russian troops?’

I might have misunderstood the context of your remarks however my first thoughts were about the role of these Ukrainian nationalists in the Holocaust.
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To equate the two is appaling.
 
discokermit said:
when are they next having elections?
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It was due to be last month, but unfortunately some fascists invaded and rather disrupted the normal processes of governance. So…
According to the Ukrainian electoral code,[3] the electoral process should start within a month from the cancellation of the state of martial law that was introduced in 2022 following the Russian invasion. The previous parliamentary election in Ukraine was held on 21 July 2019.[4]
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From Wikipedia.

We’re still within five years as we stand, so if Russia just fucks off before June, no reason for normal due process to be interrupted. Otherwise, you can add interruption to a sovereign democratic process to fascist Russia’s crimes. HTH.
 
Kevbad the Bad said:
Just to make it clear, Bandera and his followers were mass-murdering bastards of the first water and were directly responsible for the killing of thousands of Jews. Undeniable. They also killed huge numbers of Poles, men, women and children. (Also, incidentally, thousands of German soldiers). But the Russian army also killed tens of thousands of Poles, immediately after they first invaded Poland in alliance with Germany and then again later when they reconquered Poland at the end of the war. The Russian army also took part in the forced deportations of so many minority nationalities during and at the end of WW2. Ethnic Germans, Crimean Tatars, Greeks, Crimean Italians, Bulgarians, Muslim Armenians, Finns, Chechens, Ingush, Kalmyk Mongols, Balkars, Karachays, Meshketian Turks, Laz and others. As well as large numbers of Latvians, Estonians, Lithuanians and Ukrainians. As you probably know these deportations resulted in huge loss of life from extrajudicial or punishment killings, through to deaths from hunger, thirst, malnutrition and medical neglect. Then there was the mass rape of German (and Polish women) at the end of the war.

So I'm not supporting Ukrainian nationalist atrocities, but let's not forget what the Russians did. (Let's not forget their domestic mass murder before WW2 either). The past atrocities of one group do not excuse the past or current atrocities of another.
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Thanks for qualifying what you said. For a moment I thought you'd gone to the dark side. As a British official working for the Home Office said about the decision to allow the Ukraine Galician
SS into the UK without screening "they were the worst of the worst"
 
Riklet said:
No one I've met has been a jingo. The world isnt black and white surprisingly. Ukranians can be against war and violence and imperialism and even NATO and yet still overall support violence and resistance against an illegal invasion. While not personally wanting to be there... for various reasons.

Easy for you to make such glib comments when you havent had friends and family displaced, killed, injured, affected psychologically, arrested, tortured, raped etc.
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I'm not agreeing with your reposte in your last sentence but the rest makes sense. In fact one of the issues that some Ukrainian voices face is that precisely because some hold views that don't fit some of the Atlanticist stereotypes of what Ukranians should think they don't get listened to.
 
ska invita said:
It's such a stupid thing to say, it may surprise you to hear that it's not my position to give land to anyone, particularly confusing for armchair generals, I appreciate that.

Putin has won the land he has won, he won it two years ago, it's clear what territory it is, the UK general above understands it and names the territories... not sure what your confusion is.

If you're in the mood for asking questions the question is, as the general says, what is the exit strategy, what counts as a win, and how long do you want to drag the war on for and how many people do you want to throw in their graves... 25-27 year old are the next cohort due to the incoming recruitment age drop. For what? I'll answer that one, for absolutely nothing to change on the ground .
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You want him to keep what he has, and what about the Ukrainians who live there?. Putin will let them live happily ever after?.
 
Riklet said:
No one I've met has been a jingo. The world isnt black and white surprisingly. Ukranians can be against war and violence and imperialism and even NATO and yet still overall support violence and resistance against an illegal invasion. While not personally wanting to be there... for various reasons.

Easy for you to make such glib comments when you havent had friends and family displaced, killed, injured, affected psychologically, arrested, tortured, raped etc.
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It's a simple fact, which tbh you've acknowledged, that they're all in favour of other people fighting for Ukraine. It is easy to be a jingo,to be super-keen on fighting, when you're not going to be suffering the consequences, the injuries and so on - as the irish put it, it's easy to lie on another man's wound.
 
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The39thStep said:
Regarding 'pure Russians ' recruitment Reuters reported a couple of days ago "In a statement, the Russian defence ministry said more than 100,000 people have signed contracts with the armed forces since the start of the year, including about 16,000 in the past 10 days alone." ( obviously the pinch of salt caveat applies)
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The Crocus City attacks are being used to promote the war and recruit patriots, there’s already shells graffitied with ‘for crocus city’ smashing into Ukraine apartment blocks. No doubt some volunteering is off the back of this particular narrative. Though it isn’t really anymore dishonest than George Bush using 11/9 as justification for going after Iraq.
 
emanymton said:
It's not on me or anyone else to say what terms Ukraine should accept. But we can't ignore the issue of the US presidential election, how that goes could have a significant impact so I don't see anything moving much until after that.
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I think we should watch out for the EU elections too, the far right may make quite substantial gains, and quite a lot (but not all) of them are on Team Putin. There are definitely actors pushing for this, Orban has some influence as well as US far right figures like Bannon. Whilst I don’t think total control is on the cards, there may be enough power to delay and make trouble.
 
article on the shell shortage, Dwindling Ammunition Stocks Pose Grave Threat to Ukraine
theres a few things wrong with it. one of which is the mention of "human wave attacks". the phrase has also been mentioned here and is very common in its use but up to now i have never seen any evidence of it. which, considering the amount of video footage available from both sides, makes me think it is not happening.
unless i misunderstand the phrase.
has anyone seen any evidence of human wave attacks?
 
discokermit said:
article on the shell shortage, Dwindling Ammunition Stocks Pose Grave Threat to Ukraine
theres a few things wrong with it. one of which is the mention of "human wave attacks". the phrase has also been mentioned here and is very common in its use but up to now i have never seen any evidence of it. which, considering the amount of video footage available from both sides, makes me think it is not happening.
unless i misunderstand the phrase.
has anyone seen any evidence of human wave attacks?
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not as such but there's this video explaining what they're using the term to mean
 
The39thStep said:
Love the way that the BBC can only have an analysis of an election based on who is 'pro-Russia' or 'pro-Western' as if electors in Slovenia only vote on that basis.
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Yes, that is what I thought. And, of course, a "pro-Russian" candidate must necessarily be a "populist", according to the BBC mindset.
 
Pickman's model said:
not as such but there's this video explaining what they're using the term to mean
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the wikipedia entry describes nothing like this and yet lists this conflict as using the tactics they describe. does anyone else define human wave attacks this way or just the bloke in the video? or has the meaning officially been changed because there is no evidence of actual human wave attacks?
 
discokermit said:
the wikipedia entry describes nothing like this and yet lists this conflict as using the tactics they describe. does anyone else define human wave attacks this way or just the bloke in the video? or has the meaning officially been changed because there is no evidence of actual human wave attacks?
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Once again all that is solid melts into air and the auld certainties dissolve as smoke in the wind
 
littlebabyjesus said:
Nobody here is cheering on Russia from what I can see. But how many more pointless deaths are needed before we are allowed to talk about ways of ending an unwinnable war?
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Who here is not being allowed to talk about this war or anything else?


In reality is the Ukrainian people, not those pontificating here or even the Ukrainian regime who will decide, when and if it is time to cease resistance to occupation in it's current form. No government can concede and survive without a popular mandate; equally no regime can continue to fight if those expected to go to the frontline are unwilling to go.
 
littlebabyjesus said:
So, we're two years in. Where are we likely to be two years from now? Even being very optimistic, what is the best case scenario?

The whole of Europe is tooling up but this war won't be ending any time soon, which spells ongoing misery for everyone directly involved.

Nobody here is cheering on Russia from what I can see. But how many more pointless deaths are needed before we are allowed to talk about ways of ending an unwinnable war?
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If someone on the gaza thread was repeatedly posting criticisms of the Palestinians, never utterd a word of criticism of Israel and cheered on Israels military success. What conclusion would you draw about what side they were on?

Seriously the double standards on this pisses me off.
 
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