Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[Rob Ray]

Oh I understand where they are comming from. That's the problem!

Clearly you don't.

 

[Rob Ray]

perhaps you need to understand where the people who oppose a big imperialist power invading a small nation are coming from, too?

I DO. Jfc proper brick wall stuff this.

 

[emanymton]

Afaik nobody on this thread is even close to far right and suggesting they are is idiotic. Neither are they proactively imperialist (you can certainly argue they de facto are, but that's not the same thing). Most of them come from a nwbtcw perspective, which I have myself argued extensively does not work here, but draws from the exact opposite perspective to the one you're merrily laying on them.

There have been lots of former leftwingers who have been drawn into far-right conspiracy theory's. There are posters on here following the same path. And I suspect some are father down it than the let on, but that is only a suspicion.

I'll remind you that one of the posters you are defending thinks the only reason Ukraine is still fighting is because Boris Johnson told them to so he could have a good photo op.

And there are others who can hardly contain their glee at Ukrainian deaths.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

So, we're two years in. Where are we likely to be two years from now? Even being very optimistic, what is the best case scenario?

The whole of Europe is tooling up but this war won't be ending any time soon, which spells ongoing misery for everyone directly involved.

Nobody here is cheering on Russia from what I can see. But how many more pointless deaths are needed before we are allowed to talk about ways of ending an unwinnable war?

 

[Rob Ray]

There have been lots of former leftwingers who have been drawn into far-right conspiracy theory's. There are posters on here following the same path. And I suspect some are father down it than the let on, but that is only a suspicion.

I'll remind you that one of the posters you are defending thinks the only reason Ukraine is still fighting is because Boris Johnson told them to so he could have a good photo op.

And there are others who can hardly contain their glee at Ukrainian deaths.

It sounds to me like you're arguing more with an imagined foe than actual people there tbh. I've not at any point suggested letting silly ideas slide - but play the ball, not your "suspicions" about them being cartoon villains.

 

[emanymton]

I respect you emanymton and I even share some of your criticisms of Elpenor's position. But I think you are way off the mark and being pretty unfair on calling them (and possibly some others) far right.

Certainly calling for negotiations is being done by the far right, but there are other political positions that can also see a negotiated end as the best outcome (pacifism for instance)

If not already there I maintain they are being pulled in that direction.

 

[Rob Ray]

You know fuck all about them.

 

[Yossarian]

But how many more pointless deaths are needed before we are allowed to talk about ways of ending an unwinnable war?

Pretty sure you're allowed to talk about whatever the fuck you want right now

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Pretty sure you're allowed to talk about whatever the fuck you want right now

Nit without being accused of all kinds of shit you haven't said, you're not.

 

[redsquirrel]

If not already there I maintain they are being pulled in that direction.

Like I said I think you're off the mark here.
I would agree that there has been some very crude 'anti-imperialism' analysis (though I'd say very little on U75 compared to elsewhere) that has led some down a wrong alley. But I don't believe that applies to Elpenor.

 

[A380]

I’d have a lot more time for posters making the argument that the Ukrainians should stop fighting and accept they should fall under Putin’s Russia control, either as a vassal state or by being brought into Russia proper, if they could explain why the same arguments don’t apply to the Palestinian people currently facing the Israeli onslaught in Gaza.

It’s like watching a Spanish person decry our occupation of Gibraltar, whilst justifying their ownership of Ceuta, Mellia and that tiny headland.

But far far less edifying.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I’d have a lot more time for posters making the argument that the Ukrainians should stop fighting and accept they should fall under Putin’s Russia control, either as a vassal state or by being brought into Russia proper, if they could explain why the same arguments don’t apply to the Palestinian people currently facing the Israeli onslaught in Gaza.

It’s like watching a Spanish person decry our occupation of Gibraltar, whilst justifying their ownership of Ceuta, Mellia and that tiny headland.

But far far less edifying.

I don't support Hamas. Hth.

 

[redsquirrel]

I’d have a lot more time for posters making the argument that the Ukrainians should stop fighting and accept they should fall under Putin’s Russia control, either as a vassal state or by being brought into Russia proper, if they could explain why the same arguments don’t apply to the Palestinian people currently facing the Israeli onslaught in Gaza.

And of course vice versa, those arguing for measures (including supplying arms) against Russia while defending the UK government/opposition's line on Isreal, or talking about 'performative politics'

 

[A380]

.

And of course vice versa, those arguing for measures (including supplying arms) against Russia while defending the UK government/opposition's line on Isreal, or talking about 'performative politics'

It’s almost like, pro western imperialism bad.

Anti western imperialism good…

 

[Silas Loom]

So argue on where you think they're wrong, as I have done repeatedly on this thread while managing not to simultaneously dehumanise and insult their motives and characters. Do you think doing so brings them a single step closer to changing their minds? Or does it rather box them into a hardened position?

I don’t think that rational posters are responsible for boxing and hardening Urban’s pet Putinists into their positions any more than I think that NATO is responsible for boxing and hardening Putin into his.

All of the posters who have disgraced themselves on this thread can post on other threads without being insulted or dehumanised. Urban’s discouragement of cross-thread beef is one of its best features, and it means that people who say appalling things can be castigated without them feeling driven to flounce.

 

[emanymton]

You may have outlined a nuanced position which explains how some sort of just peace similar to that kabbes outlined might be achieved, but if so I've missed it.

Your posts, at least the recent ones, seem to be more unwarranted attack like this load of nonsense.



But perhaps you could take this opportunity to summarise your suggestions for how such a peace could be achieved, or even a link to your previous posts addressing this point.

Wrll first I agree with Kabbes.

I think I have said similar before, but can't remember, but in case I have suggested otherwise this is broadly my position.

I now only see this ending in some kind of negotiationed settlement, but unfortunately I don't see a path to that right now. Russia fucked up massively with the invasion and are now trying to salvage what they can from it by holding on to as much land as they can (why tge biggest country in the world wants more beats me). For the moment they still think they can make some slight gains so they are not seriously interested in negotiation at the at the moment, unless they got offers some hugh concession I guess.

It's not on me or anyone else to say what terms Ukraine should accept. But we can't ignore the issue of the US presidential election, how that goes could have a significant impact so I don't see anything moving much until after that.

 

[emanymton]

And of course vice versa, those arguing for measures (including supplying arms) against Russia while defending the UK government/opposition's line on Isreal, or talking about 'performative politics'

Has anyone on here done that? I missed it if so. Or are you looking at say the Labour Party?

 

[redsquirrel]

Has anyone on here done that? I missed it if so. Or are you looking at say the Labour Party?

Not so much on this thread but across U75 yes a few posters have. But of course if does apply more widely to the Labour right

 

[Rob Ray]

I don’t think that rational posters are responsible for boxing and hardening Urban’s pet Putinists into their positions any more than I think that NATO is responsible for boxing and hardening Putin into his

There are many things you can say about the folks calling for Ukraine to sue for peace, but there is not a single Putinist on the thread and this kind of mindless caricaturing is utterly pointless.

 

[emanymton]

Like I said I think you're off the mark here.
I would agree that there has been some very crude 'anti-imperialism' analysis (though I'd say very little on U75 compared to elsewhere) that has led some down a wrong alley. But I don't believe that applies to Elpenor.

Maybe, guess time we'll time.

But regardless anyone who thinks the only reason the war is still ongoing.it because Boris Johsons told Ukraine they had to keep fighting can't be taken seriously, surely?

 

[andysays]

Wrll first I agree with Kabbes.

I think I have said similar before, but can't remember, but in case I have suggested otherwise this is broadly my position.

I now only see this ending in some kind of negotiationed settlement, but unfortunately I don't see a path to that right now. Russia fucked up massively with the invasion and are now trying to salvage what they can from it by holding on to as much land as they can (why tge biggest country in the world wants more beats me). For the moment they still think they can make some slight gains so they are not seriously interested in negotiation at the at the moment, unless they got offers some hugh concession I guess.

It's not on me or anyone else to say what terms Ukraine should accept. But we can't ignore the issue of the US presidential election, how that goes could have a significant impact so I don't see anything moving much until after that.

So why are you accusing others, eg Elpenor, of all sorts of shit for suggesting that a negotiated peace might be needed at some point, when it's essentially your position as well?

 

[emanymton]

Has anyone on here done that? I missed it if so. Or are you looking at say the Labour Party?

Well I'm bit shocked by that.

To be clear I absolutely do no support arms going to Israel. I'm really no happy about sending arms to Ukraine but don't see an alternative.

 

[Yossarian]

I would definitely support a settlement that involved Russia getting the fuck out of Ukraine, the UK getting the fuck out of Diego Garcia, the US either granting statehood or independence to ill-gotten gains like Puerto Rico, and an island-wide referendum on Irish unity to sweeten the deal

 

[emanymton]

So why are you accusing others, eg Elpenor, of all sorts of shit for suggesting that a negotiated peace might be needed at some point, when it's essentially your position as well?

Because there position is that Ukraine should just surrender and give Russia whatever it wants. That's not even close to what I'm suggesting.

 

[A380]

Wrll first I agree with Kabbes.

I think I have said similar before, but can't remember, but in case I have suggested otherwise this is broadly my position.

I now only see this ending in some kind of negotiationed settlement, but unfortunately I don't see a path to that right now. Russia fucked up massively with the invasion and are now trying to salvage what they can from it by holding on to as much land as they can (why tge biggest country in the world wants more beats me). For the moment they still think they can make some slight gains so they are not seriously interested in negotiation at the at the moment, unless they got offers some hugh concession I guess.

It's not on me or anyone else to say what terms Ukraine should accept. But we can't ignore the issue of the US presidential election, how that goes could have a significant impact so I don't see anything moving much until after that.

I think it’s more likely to end up with a Korea type situation. The borders fixed on de facto ceasefire lines. The current Russian kleptocracy can’t negotiate out of it, and we in the west won’t kick over their apple cart completely because of fear ( not particularly of a nuclear response, though there is that, but the likelihood that a complete military defeat would lead to a total collapse of the Russian state leaving a situation that would make Iraq look like Luxembourg.).

‘Borders will be frozen, Russia will keep bleeding money, young lives and hope . What’s left of Ukraine will come into the mainstream of the west without necessarily sorting out its underlying issues, ( a bit like Hungary and Bulgaria) and I’ll never get to do the Trans Siberian railway…

But what do I know, day’s before the invasion I was confidently predicting Putin was just going to annexe sone border towns…

 

[emanymton]

I think it’s more likely to end up with a Korea type situation. The borders fixed on de facto ceasefire lines. The current Russian kleptocracy can’t negotiate out of it, and we in the west won’t kick over their apple cart completely because of fear ( not particularly of a nuclear response, though their is that, but the likelihood that a complete military defeat would lead to a total collapse of the Russian state leaving a situation that would make Iraq look like Luxembourg.).

‘Borders will be frozen, Russia will keep bleeding money, young lives and hope . What’s left of Ukraine will come into the mainstream of the west without necessarily sorting out its underlying issues, ( a bit like Hungary and Bulgaria) and I’ll never get to do the Trans Siberian railway…

Yes that's possible, which is still kind of a negotiated peace, just not a very stable one.

 

[A380]

China is probably the main beneficiary of all of this. They are now undisputed leader of the ‘not the West ‘ states and up for much cheaper Russian gas than 3 years ago.

Although counter to this , it’s probably brought Taiwan more time.

 

[Rob Ray]

The current Russian plan seems to be to grind away until at least the US election has been decided, on the idea that at some point, without serious US support, Ukraine simply won't have enough bullets to stop a collapse. At which point they score the whole pot.

Until that's resolved any talk of peace deals short of total surrender is moot.

 

[discokermit]

Because there position

where position?

 

[discokermit]

The current Russian plan seems to be to grind away until at least the US election has been decided, on the idea that at some point, without serious US support, Ukraine simply won't have enough bullets to stop a collapse. At which point they score the whole pot.

Until that's resolved any talk of peace deals short of total surrender is moot.

even with serious us support they will still run out of shells and soldiers. which is why the us will pull out before that.