Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[emanymton]

where position?

Ha ha laugh at the dyslexic, so you make fun of people with disabilities. I would expect that off you.

 

[discokermit]

it was a variation of the werewolf? there wolf! joke. you big fucking crybaby.

 

[Ax^]

personally attacks oh noes abuse

 

[The39thStep]

I’d have a lot more time for posters making the argument that the Ukrainians should stop fighting and accept they should fall under Putin’s Russia control, either as a vassal state or by being brought into Russia proper, if they could explain why the same arguments don’t apply to the Palestinian people currently facing the Israeli onslaught in Gaza.

It’s like watching a Spanish person decry our occupation of Gibraltar, whilst justifying their ownership of Ceuta, Mellia and that tiny headland.

But far far less edifying.

One of things to be applauded on these boards is the sheer range of analogies that have been used to justify whatever position posters wish to advance .

 

[andysays]

Because there position is that Ukraine should just surrender and give Russia whatever it wants. That's not even close to what I'm suggesting.

I think you (and others, tbh) have completely misread or misunderstood what a number of posters have written, and to be honest you probably owe them an apology.

 

[kabbes]

I don’t think by any means that it is obvious how things play out from here. One thing I’ve learnt from a career in risk modelling and management is that the thing that happens is frequently not the anticipated path — indeed, 50% of the time it will not be in the middle 50%.

To those arguing that there will inevitably be a long-term Russian grind to victory, I’ll remind you that Russia ultimately got out of Afghanistan, the USSR eventually imploded and Vladimir Putin is 71 years of age in a capital city where life expectancy is mid-70s. Events happen and circumstances change. Much of what causes this to change is hidden until it happens. There is always hope for the Ukrainians as long as they can hold out.

 

[Rob Ray]

even with serious us support they will still run out of shells and soldiers. which is why the us will pull out before that.

I don't think the wider situation is nearly that predictable. We don't know where the limit is for the Russian public, for example, or even really how robust the country's economy is.

The West's propaganda has repeatedly gotten this stuff wrong, but that doesn't mean Russia is actually some unstoppable machine, nor is it a particularly good guide to forthcoming Western responses. There's a few things I think are pretty likely to be true, eg what I said above, but beyond that it gets too hazy for serious predictions imv.

 

[discokermit]

I don’t think by any means that it is obvious how things play out from here. One thing I’ve learnt from a career in risk modelling and management is that the thing that happens is frequently not the anticipated path — indeed, 50% of the time it will not be in the middle 50%.

To those arguing that there will inevitably be a long-term Russian grind to victory, I’ll remind you that Russia ultimately got out of Afghanistan, the USSR eventually imploded and Vladimir Putin is 71 years of age in a capital city where life expectancy is mid-70s. Events happen and circumstances change. Much of what causes this to change is hidden until it happens. There is always hope for the Ukrainians as long as they can hold out.

more meat for the grinder.

 

[kabbes]

more meat for the grinder.

Indeed. That’s kind of their choice, though, isn’t it? Not up to me to tell them they should just accept the terrible alternative

 

[Kevbad the Bad]

I went to a meeting the other day. A bloke with Morning Star and/or Workers Party of Britain associations was maintaining that NATO was leading us into WW3. The discussion got around to Ukraine. Guess what? NATO was behind it all, engineering coups, backing Ukrainian Nazis, out to destroy Russia. Ukraine has never really ever existed as a country and all Ukrainian nationalists have been antisemitic and exclusionist. Russia, on the other hand, only acts in self defence or to protect its existing interests and is so considerate that it treats places like Transnistria, South Ossetia and Abkhazia as protectorates, for the good of their inhabitants. I tried to squeeze out from him just a scintilla of criticism of Putin, of Russia (and indeed of China when it came around to Taiwan). To no avail. All the fault of NATO.

More than a bit simplistic and hopefully not many here on Urban would go that far. But the experience teaches one fairly obvious lesson. Once you start criticising Putin or Russia you will find that the whole story unravels pretty darn quickly. What if the far right has a presence on both sides of the front line? What if Ukrainian nationalists in WW2 were not so very different in their behaviour from Russian troops? What if the existence of and extent of the Russian empire is itself a historically fairly recent phenomenon? What if the numerous conflicts and potential conflicts around Russia's borders were the product of a deliberate long term policy of the Russian state? What if Ukrainian citizens, initially at least, decided by themselves to fight off the Russian invasion?

None of that proposes a solution to the conflict. Why should anyone pretend to have the answer to that? But the tone of some is almost to rejoice at the supposed impending triumph of Putin's gangster army and regime. That's what infuriates so many people. If you think that Putin is going to win (whatever that means), please also acknowledge his viciousness, complete lack of concern for the humanity of those millions whose lives are destroyed or distorted by his actions and those of his army. And also please explain and attempt to prove that he would stop with his present demands.

 

[Silas Loom]

I went to a meeting the other day. A bloke with Morning Star and/or Workers Party of Britain associations was maintaining that NATO was leading us into WW3. The discussion got around to Ukraine. Guess what? NATO was behind it all, engineering coups, backing Ukrainian Nazis, out to destroy Russia. Ukraine has never really ever existed as a country and all Ukrainian nationalists have been antisemitic and exclusionist. Russia, on the other hand, only acts in self defence or to protect its existing interests and is so considerate that it treats places like Transnistria, South Ossetia and Abkhazia as protectorates, for the good of their inhabitants. I tried to squeeze out from him just a scintilla of criticism of Putin, of Russia (and indeed of China when it came around to Taiwan). To no avail. All the fault of NATO.

More than a bit simplistic and hopefully not many here on Urban would go that far. But the experience teaches one fairly obvious lesson. Once you start criticising Putin or Russia you will find that the whole story unravels pretty darn quickly. What if the far right has a presence on both sides of the front line? What if Ukrainian nationalists in WW2 were not so very different in their behaviour from Russian troops? What if the existence of and extent of the Russian empire is itself a historically fairly recent phenomenon? What if the numerous conflicts and potential conflicts around Russia's borders were the product of a deliberate long term policy of the Russian state? What if Ukrainian citizens, initially at least, decided by themselves to fight off the Russian invasion?

None of that proposes a solution to the conflict. Why should anyone pretend to have the answer to that? But the tone of some is almost to rejoice at the supposed impending triumph of Putin's gangster army and regime. That's what infuriates so many people. If you think that Putin is going to win (whatever that means), please also acknowledge his viciousness, complete lack of concern for the humanity of those millions whose lives are destroyed or distorted by his actions and those of his army. And also please explain and attempt to prove that he would stop with his present demands.

Why on earth did you go to the meeting?

 

[Kevbad the Bad]

Why on earth did you go to the meeting?

The question should be 'why did he go to the meeting'?

 

[Silas Loom]

The question should be 'why did he go to the meeting'?

I was assuming he was the speaker. Fair enough, as you were.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Indeed. That’s kind of their choice, though, isn’t it? Not up to me to tell them they should just accept the terrible alternative

Whose choice? Ukrainian conscripts' choice?

 

[Ax^]

has their been any more recent polls of Ukrainian support for continuing to fight against Russia

as that the only really choice that matters

 

[discokermit]

Indeed. That’s kind of their choice, though, isn’t it? Not up to me to tell them they should just accept the terrible alternative

no. thats why they have conscription.

 

[discokermit]

has their been any more recent polls of Ukrainian support for continuing to fight against Russia

as that the only really choice that matters

the fact they have to drag people off the street and chuck them in vans is a good indicator, i reckon.

 

[Rob Ray]

There's a difference between general support and a willingness to die in a trench - both Russia and Ukraine have shortfalls of the latter. Ukrainian public support for continuing, last time a poll was posted, had been trending downwards but remained high. This was in January, if looking for detail:

Opportunities and Challenges Facing Ukraine’s Democratic Transition

The most current polling NDI conducted in Ukraine provides new insights into the current mood of Ukrainian societies. It shows that the war is taking a heavy toll on Ukraine and its people. Since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukrainians have become more realistic but by no means...

www.ndi.org

 

[Ax^]

the fact they have to drag people off the street and chuck them in vans is a good indicator, i reckon.

was that the Ukrainians or the Russians this time around ?

 

[discokermit]

ukrainians

 

[Ax^]

you not going to get me to defend forced conscription for either side ..

sure the bus loads of young russians who been rounded up had much of a choice to join willingly

but if the majority of a nation don't want to lay down their arms and give up the fight not sure how any outside influence is going to make them side down and give up half of the Ukraine to putin

 

[littlebabyjesus]

There's a difference between general support and a willingness to die in a trench - both Russia and Ukraine have shortfalls of the latter. Ukrainian public support for continuing, last time a poll was posted, had been trending downwards but remained high. This was in January, if looking for detail:

Opportunities and Challenges Facing Ukraine’s Democratic Transition

The most current polling NDI conducted in Ukraine provides new insights into the current mood of Ukrainian societies. It shows that the war is taking a heavy toll on Ukraine and its people. Since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukrainians have become more realistic but by no means...

www.ndi.org

I'm not sure what anyone is supposed to do with that though. What levels of support for war would have been shown by opinion polls in Britain (or Germany) during WW1?

 

[Pickman's model]

the fact they have to drag people off the street and chuck them in vans is a good indicator, i reckon

Like in carry on jack only less amusing

 

[Pickman's model]

I'm not sure what anyone is supposed to do with that though. What levels of support for war would have been shown by opinion polls in Britain (or Germany) during WW1?

Pretty high I reckon. Not as high as popularly thought but somewhere in the 60%s

 

[kabbes]

Whose choice? Ukrainian conscripts' choice?

Ukraine is a democracy, unlike Russia. Sure, democracies do a lot of things that individuals in that democracy disagree with. But so long as there is high support for continuing, that’s the social contract you sign up to by living in that democracy.

 

[Riklet]

Every Ukrainian ive met abroad supports their country and holding out against Russia even if it's bloody and brutal. I havent met a single one who thinks they should capitulate.

That said, most of them are refugees abroad or were already abroad before the war. And arent rushing back to get involved in the war effort. Plenty of young guys living in Poland or who I've met in Portugal for example. It's almost like our political positions and our personal actions can be in many ways contradictory. Who woulda thunk it....

Im not denying the brutal reality of conscription and people being dragged off the street, hiding from the army etc. But that doesn't mean that those people don't support the war or want some kind of "immediate solution" hugely at Ukraine's expense. Every single Ukranian I've met is absolutely appalled at the shocking crimes that have taken place in their borders, at the enormous death and destruction that has taken place against innocent people.

 

[Pickman's model]

Every Ukrainian ive met abroad supports their country and holding out against Russia even if it's bloody and brutal. I havent met a single one who thinks they should capitulate.

That said, most of them are refugees abroad or were already abroad before the war. And arent rushing back to get involved in the war effort. Plenty of young guys living in Poland or who I've met in Portugal for example. It's almost like our political positions and our personal actions can be in many ways contradictory. Who woulda thunk it....

Im not denying the brutal reality of conscription and people being dragged off the street, hiding from the army etc. But that doesn't mean that those people don't support the war or want some kind of "immediate solution" hugely at Ukraine's expense. Every single Ukranian I've met is absolutely appalled at the shocking crimes that have taken place in their borders, at the enormous death and destruction that has taken place against innocent people.

It's easy to be a jingo when you're a thousand miles from the fighting

 

[discokermit]

Ukraine is a democracy, unlike Russia. Sure, democracies do a lot of things that individuals in that democracy disagree with. But so long as there is high support for continuing, that’s the social contract you sign up to by living in that democracy.

when are they next having elections?

 

[Rob Ray]

I'm not sure what anyone is supposed to do with that though. What levels of support for war would have been shown by opinion polls in Britain (or Germany) during WW1?

Ax asked so I found one. I don't think you need to do anything, it just gives an idea of the current popular view, which might be vaguely useful if talking about about the plausibility of various scenarios (or might not).

 

[The39thStep]

I went to a meeting the other day. A bloke with Morning Star and/or Workers Party of Britain associations was maintaining that NATO was leading us into WW3. The discussion got around to Ukraine. Guess what? NATO was behind it all, engineering coups, backing Ukrainian Nazis, out to destroy Russia. Ukraine has never really ever existed as a country and all Ukrainian nationalists have been antisemitic and exclusionist. Russia, on the other hand, only acts in self defence or to protect its existing interests and is so considerate that it treats places like Transnistria, South Ossetia and Abkhazia as protectorates, for the good of their inhabitants. I tried to squeeze out from him just a scintilla of criticism of Putin, of Russia (and indeed of China when it came around to Taiwan). To no avail. All the fault of NATO.

More than a bit simplistic and hopefully not many here on Urban would go that far. But the experience teaches one fairly obvious lesson. Once you start criticising Putin or Russia you will find that the whole story unravels pretty darn quickly. What if the far right has a presence on both sides of the front line? What if Ukrainian nationalists in WW2 were not so very different in their behaviour from Russian troops? What if the existence of and extent of the Russian empire is itself a historically fairly recent phenomenon? What if the numerous conflicts and potential conflicts around Russia's borders were the product of a deliberate long term policy of the Russian state? What if Ukrainian citizens, initially at least, decided by themselves to fight off the Russian invasion?

None of that proposes a solution to the conflict. Why should anyone pretend to have the answer to that? But the tone of some is almost to rejoice at the supposed impending triumph of Putin's gangster army and regime. That's what infuriates so many people. If you think that Putin is going to win (whatever that means), please also acknowledge his viciousness, complete lack of concern for the humanity of those millions whose lives are destroyed or distorted by his actions and those of his army. And also please explain and attempt to prove that he would stop with his present demands.

I had some agreement with you until I suddenly and unexpectedly arrived at ‘What if Ukrainian nationalists in WW2 were not so very different in their behaviour from Russian troops?’

I might have misunderstood the context of your remarks however my first thoughts were about the role of these Ukrainian nationalists in the Holocaust.