Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[hitmouse]

The publicity photo was used by the Times, The Daily Mail, the Telegraph and ITV. This has apparently been widely circulated in Germany. Both governments (Ukraine and Riussia) are fashie in their own way and both have their friends in the western ruling classes.

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That photo does seem to be dodgy, but you'd think Mark Ames of all people might be a bit sensitive on the subject of Western media figures boosting Eastern European fascists. Let he who hasn't published a regular column by the leader of the National Bolshevik Party cast the first stone and all that.

 

[LDC]

If you want a hollow and depressing laugh have a look at the Stop the War coalition web page. Basically it's 'NATO hands off Ukraine', no mention of Russia. About as incisive as some of the 'analysis' on here and the how close are we to war thread.

 

[cupid_stunt]

If you want a hollow and depressing laugh have a look at the Stop the War coalition web page. Basically it's 'NATO hands off Ukraine', no mention of Russia. About as incisive as some of the 'analysis' on here and the how close are we to war thread.

Well, Piers Corbyn has already started demonstrating against NATO, so we are truly entering the loon-sphere.

 

[LDC]

Can't remember if this has been posted before, it's a few weeks old now, but has some good explanations about Russia's outlook and possible moves, it is the FPRI though so not without baggage.

Moscow’s Compellence Strategy - Foreign Policy Research Institute

How ambitious are Russia's foreign policy objectives, and how much force does Moscow believe it must employ to achieve them? Moscow has submitted various

www.fpri.org

 

[Crispy]

If you want a hollow and depressing laugh have a look at the Stop the War coalition web page. Basically it's 'NATO hands off Ukraine', no mention of Russia. About as incisive as some of the 'analysis' on here and the how close are we to war thread.

And check what colour Crimea is in their map.

 

[Spymaster]

If you want a hollow and depressing laugh have a look at the Stop the War coalition web page. Basically it's 'NATO hands off Ukraine', no mention of Russia.

Ahhhhhh, that's where the drones have been getting the "ramping-up" guff we've seen over a couple of threads here.

 

[AmateurAgitator]

That photo does seem to be dodgy, but you'd think Mark Ames of all people might be a bit sensitive on the subject of Western media figures boosting Eastern European fascists. Let he who hasn't published a regular column by the leader of the National Bolshevik Party cast the first stone and all that.

Blimey I wasn't aware of that. Tbh I didn't have a scooby who Mark Ames was.

 

[gosub]

Ahhhhhh, that's where the drones have been getting the "ramping-up" guff we've seen over a couple of threads here.

be fair. It is playing out a bit difeerantly to the April Fools deployemnt, peope have changed the light bulb and everything

 

[agricola]

Amazingly, the invasion pretexts are getting even worse:



“You’ll never guess what I’ve just found in my house officer, to which only I have access”

 

[Spymaster]

Amazingly, the invasion pretexts are getting even worse:



“You’ll never guess what I’ve just found in my house officer, to which only I have access”

This will probably be the evidence that they were going to supply to Germany, but couldn't be posted online because social media platforms would block it.

As ever with claims of this nature, one has to ask why there weren't any survivors who've told of the massacres.

 

[agricola]

This will probably be the evidence that they were going to supply to Germany, but couldn't be posted online because social media platforms would block it.

As ever with claims of this nature, one has to ask why there weren't any survivors who've told of the massacres.

They’ll probably explain that away by saying they were very thorough.

 

[Supine]

A map to explain what could happen!

 

[steeplejack]

A gigantic pincer movement through Romania (a NATO country) and Moldova to take Lvov? Seems legit. The graphics guy took a load of speed and became unusually obsessed with arrows as a frantically tight deadline loomed.

 

[Spymaster]

They’ll probably explain that away by saying they were very thorough.

Absolutely. In this case the Russian claims are that the mass graves contain civilian victims of Ukranian shelling. So it seems that Ukranian shelling is the most effective in the world in that it doesn't wound and injure anyone who then tell other people about it. It only kills people, and is 100% efficient.

 

[steeplejack]

also Putin

 

[ska invita]

If you want a hollow and depressing laugh have a look at the Stop the War coalition web page. Basically it's 'NATO hands off Ukraine', no mention of Russia. About as incisive as some of the 'analysis' on here and the how close are we to war thread.

From what I read their position is all about trying to deescalate the war and trying to find a diplomatic solution

 

[mojo pixy]

I don't think Putin really wants a war with everyone. But I do think he wants western news sources wibbling fearfully, so he can point and laugh and go "meh look at you, wibbling fearfully". He's a dangerous sociopath, for sure, but this is for the home crowd, and more IMO about showing "democracies" (more specifically the EU, US and NATO) up as weak and dithery and divided, than it is about territory. I think (to put it in a pictureques 20th century image) this is the bear showing its teeth and gleefully watching everyone piss themselves, because nobody can actually afford not to take the bear's teeth very seriously. But for Putin's purposes, the mind games and will-he-won't-he chaos is far more useful and easier to control, than an actual ground war would be. I'm sure he knows that, he's many contemptible things but he's not stupid.

I hope I'm right, and he just demobilises with that cheeky grin of his, and everyone looks a bit scaredy cat like. But the fear remains that he really is serious and might actually do it, because honestly who the fuck even knows. I'm not certain he's even decided yet because he's that kind of bastard, and basically has time and space well and truly on his side.

(Sorry I think I meant this for the other thread. Oh well)

 

[agricola]

Absolutely. In this case the Russian claims are that the mass graves contain civilian victims of Ukranian shelling. So it seems that Ukranian shelling is the most effective in the world in that it doesn't wound and injure anyone who then tell other people about it. It only kills people, and is 100% efficient.

Artillery that kills, collects the bodies and then buries them in secret truly must be the most effective in the world.

 

[LDC]

From what I read their position is all about trying to deescalate the war and trying to find a diplomatic solution

And get people to sign up to their email and membership lists, don't forget that.

 

[ska invita]

As I asked on the other thread, what would de-escalation look like? I think that's important to think about.

 

[LDC]

As I asked on the other thread, what would de-escalation look like? I think that's important to think about.

I mean that also obviously requires that to be an acceptable outcome for all involved though, and I'm not sure it's clear that's the case at all? And even if both sides could agree, on what terms? What if Russia demands unreasonable terms that violate the ability of Ukraine to protect itself and to have political autonomy in internal affairs?

 

[dilute micro]

As I asked on the other thread, what would de-escalation look like? I think that's important to think about.

Good point. Probably not like this. Some interesting tidbits in this video.

 

[Smangus]

As I asked on the other thread, what would de-escalation look like? I think that's important to think about.

Something like this normally,

 

[ska invita]

I mean that also obviously requires that to be an acceptable outcome for all involved though, and I'm not sure it's clear that's the case at all? And even if both sides could agree, on what terms? What if Russia demands unreasonable terms that violate the ability of Ukraine to protect itself and to have political autonomy in internal affairs?

i agree with that, but its very much in the realms of possibility, and we should be expecting maximum effort for that from our 'elected politicians', instead we get nonsense cosplay about WW4.
de-escalation usually looks like both sides giving a bit, inch by inch... and this is where the criticisms of NATO have real value

BTW I think the (Biden-led?) strategy of the West pre-empting false flags in the media etc can be argued has a de-escalation value, by attempting to defuse Russian manoeuvres, but without more meaningful de-escalation backing it its fairly neutral in impact.

 

[Spymaster]

BTW I think the (Biden-led?) strategy of the West pre-empting false flags in the media etc can be argued has a de-escalation value ...

What do you think of the Biden-led strategy of informing the world of a Russian "kill list"?

 

[Magnus McGinty]

Is there a non paywall version?

 

[Spymaster]

Is there a non paywall version?

WASHINGTON — The United States government has sent a letter to the United Nations human rights chief in Geneva saying it has “credible information” that Russian forces have compiled a list of Ukrainian citizens to be killed or sent to detention camps in the aftermath of a Russian invasion and occupation of the country, according to a copy of the letter obtained Sunday by The New York Times.
The letter, which was addressed to Michelle Bachelet, the United Nations high commissioner for human rights, also said Russian forces planned to carry out widespread human rights violations, which in the past have included torturing and kidnapping civilians.
The likely targets would be people opposed to Russian actions, including dissidents from Russia and Belarus living in Ukraine, journalists, anti-corruption activists and members of ethnic and religious minorities and the L.G.B.T.Q. community.
“We also have credible information that Russian forces will likely use lethal measures to disperse peaceful protests or otherwise counter peaceful exercises of perceived resistance from civilian populations,” said the letter, which was signed by Bathsheba Nell Crocker, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations office in Geneva.
Three U.S. officials confirmed the authenticity of the letter and its contents. On Monday, Dmitri S. Peskov, the Kremlin’s spokesman, denied the existence of such a list. “This is absolutely made up,” he told reporters. “There is no such list. This is a fake.”
Foreign Policy first reported Friday on U.S. agencies having intelligence about a Russian “kill list,” and the Washington Post first reported on the letter on Sunday.
The letter noted that U.S. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken had raised the human rights concerns to the United Nations Security Council when he addressed that body on Thursday. “In particular, he stated that the United States has information that indicates Russia will target specific groups of Ukrainians,” the letter said.
In that session, Mr. Blinken told Russian officials they could prove their peaceful intentions to the world by not invading Ukraine and addressing their grievances through diplomacy instead. Mr. Blinken plans to meet Sergey V. Lavrov, the foreign minister of Russia, in Europe this Thursday, unless Russia invades Ukraine first.
President Biden and Mr. Blinken have said U.S. intelligence indicates Russian President Vladimir V. Putin has already decided to invade. In recent weeks, Mr. Putin has amassed as many as 190,000 troops around Ukraine. Russia-backed insurgents in the east have increased their artillery shelling of Ukrainian military forces in recent days.Mr. Putin invaded parts of Ukraine in 2014 and annexed the country’s Crimean Peninsula. Mr. Biden has promised to impose harsh economic sanctions on Russia if Mr. Putin carries out another invasion.

 

[friedaweed]

A map to explain what could happen!

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That makes everything much clearer now. Thanks for posting that

 

[not-bono-ever]

What do you think of the Biden-led strategy of informing the world of a Russian "kill list"?

Blates leaked propaganda from Ivan.

 

[platinumsage]