Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[ohmyliver]

Their tech OPSEC has been really sloppy at times. I mean Dutch hackers breached Cozy Bear's operations to such an extent that they hacked into the CCTV of the building they were operating in and were able to let the US know about an attack in real time. Although that was in 2014.

 

[ohmyliver]

also, one thing I did notice was the date the video was actually taken (the 16th) was flagged recently by the US as a likely date for the invasion to start.

 

[weltweit]

Does Russia need 150,000 soldiers to take KIev? Or could they be considering turning right also?

 

[weltweit]

And what would have happened if Trump was still in power in the USA?

 

[spitfire]

Their tech OPSEC has been really sloppy at times. I mean Dutch hackers breached Cozy Bear's operations to such an extent that they hacked into the CCTV of the building they were operating in and were able to let the US know about an attack in real time. Although that was in 2014.

OK, sometimes they are stupid.

 

[steeplejack]

They have more than enough personnel, logistics & equipment to roll up Ukraine as a whole in 2-3 weeks, but they don;t have the money or desire to occupy the country. That's why I think if (and with diplomacy planned for all next week, it is still a big if) they invade it will be a Georgia type story- surround Kiev, completely destroy the Ukrainian armed forces, and then accept peace in return for Donetsk, Lugansk and a corridor to the Crimea.

But I still feel this is at the outer edges of possibility- the blowback from such an attack could be catastrophoic internationally and consequences unpredictable internally.

He has the world's attention, divided NATO, and has his felt boot on the throat of the Ukrainian economy, without committing a single soldier. If it's enough to get Ukraine to observe the Minsk agreement and perhaps concede a little more, then it's been a spectacular success. Much harder to physically fight your way to any such gains.

 

[gosub]

Does Russia need 150,000 soldiers to take KIev? Or could they be considering turning right also?

To take probably not. To hold, probably needs more.

 

[ohmyliver]

OK, sometimes they are stupid.

I wouldn't say that at all.... but sometimes techbros' arrogance acts against them.

 

[LDC]

And what would have happened if Trump was still in power in the USA?

I think he would have turned his back on Ukraine and NATO, and NATO might well have crumbled as a result. It also would have caused huge splits with (and in) the US military I think.

 

[kebabking]

I think he would have turned his back on Ukraine and NATO, and NATO might well have crumbled as a result. It also would have caused huge splits with (and in) the US military I think.

Yup, I think that's all true - the next interesting thing would be the EU: if NATO folds the only established body left is the EU, and the EU is as split as NATO would be in this scenario - Germany and Italy are firmly in the 'don't care' camp (Draghi on record this morning as saying that if Ru invades Ukr, any EU sanctions should not include the energy sector....), while for the Eastern and Northern states, they see Ukraine as being Vlad's invitation to take/intimidate/control them - for them its life and death, and if the EU won't stand for them, then it means nothing.

 

[agricola]

I think he would have turned his back on Ukraine and NATO, and NATO might well have crumbled as a result. It also would have caused huge splits with (and in) the US military I think.

NATO would have probably crumbled, but I think we’d probably be looking at an EU armed forces being established round about now. There’s already a lot of talk but having Putin issuing the threats he did would absolutely have concentrated minds (and it still might).

 

[weltweit]

So, Putin could be well up for Trump winning another term given that he could possibly engineer the end of Nato as a result. And there was that rumour that Russia had some compromising info on Trump which if true would only help.

 

[brogdale]

What about those people who took Wednesday off to watch the war live?

 

[steeplejack]

Liz Truss is just as likely to predict six draws on a pools coupon. She has absolutely no idea about any of this.

 

[Pickman's model]

So, Putin could be well up for Trump winning another term given that he could possibly engineer the end of Nato as a result. And there was that rumour that Russia had some compromising info on Trump which if true would only help.

Bearing in mind what trump's done it'd have to be particularly incriminating to be worse than trying to kill congress

 

[friedaweed]

Bearing in mind what trump's done it'd have to be particularly incriminating to be worse than trying to kill congress

Naked horse riding picks with Vlad as the Jockey and Trump as Trigger I've heard

 

[ohmyliver]

Wasn't the rumour that the fabled P tape was not about urine, but something more related to why people like Epstein, and Nader were in his circle of friends.

 

[ohmyliver]

Naked horse riding picks with Vlad as the Jockey and Trump as Trigger I've heard

I skim read that and my initial thought that was that Only Fools and Horses cosplay wouldn't be that damaging, surely.

 

[friedaweed]

I skim read that and my initial thought that was that Only Fools and Horses cosplay wouldn't be that damaging, surely.

You're probably right Dave

 

[AmateurAgitator]

The publicity photo was used by the Times, The Daily Mail, the Telegraph and ITV. This has apparently been widely circulated in Germany. Both governments (Ukraine and Riussia) are fashie in their own way and both have their friends in the western ruling classes.

 

[LDC]

Refreshing news pages to see if Europe has been plunged into some post-pandemic apocalyptic war is the most 2022 thing to do. FFS.

Might watch 'Threads' as some light Sunday entertainment/prepper training film.

 

[not-bono-ever]

If there is an occupation, I don’t think Ukrainians will take it lightly given the history of the relations between the two like UPA and stuff Maybe not Afghanistan or Vietnam but grim. Vlad would have bigger political issues at home if there is a regular drip of body bags coming home .

 

[steveo87]

I can't remember where I saw/read/heard it (sorry) but even before Christmas the Americans were already plannings ways to finance/aid an insurgency should such need arise.

To speculate, I have every belief that there are already people 'on the ground', already doing such things.

 

[2hats]

BTW, Constant Phoenix is up.

 

[LDC]

BTW, Constant Phoenix is up.

Had to look that up, is that being deployed as much of a worry as it feels, or is it pretty standard 2hats?

 

[Kaka Tim]

Grim. I was assuming it was all posturing and brinkmanship, but looking more and more serious.
Can't see how Russian gains by going to war. Everyone would lose but they'd lose most.

 

[teqniq]

BTW, Constant Phoenix is up.

Yes saw this also another tweet where it was shown the audio was overdubbed from elsewhere and they did a shit job of it.

 

[ohmyliver]

Had to look that up, is that being deployed as much of a worry as it feels, or is it pretty standard 2hats?

It's probably connected to the strategic nuke exercises that started today. Putin leads sweeping nuclear exercises as tensions soar

 

[2hats]

Had to look that up, is that being deployed as much of a worry as it feels, or is it pretty standard 2hats?

There are routine and targeted exercises. This one appears to have scooted north with a tanker so probably going to sniff around a potential missile test off Severnaya Zemlya.

 

[zahir]

A thread on how the response to a Russian invasion might play out.