UK gas/electricity supply shortages this winter

[elbows]

Most of the focus so far has been on price, but the risk of supply shortages this winter is very real and large. And it looks like more attention will start to turn to this aspect.

A lack of gas in the consumer gas network would lead to a technical and safety nightmare, so in practice the assumption is that large industrial customers would be cut off first. And in practice this means gas fired power stations, which will in turn threaten electricity supplies.

I'm starting this thread now because we finally have something concrete to get our teeth into, in contrast the the governments reassuring bullshit, in the form of a letter Ofgem wrote to a gas-fired power stations operator:

UK at significant risk of gas shortages this winter, warns energy regulator

Electricity supplies to people's houses could be disrupted if the country runs short of gas.

www.bbc.co.uk

Ofgem said: "Due to the war in Ukraine and gas shortages in Europe, there is a significant risk that gas shortages could occur during the winter 2022-23 in Great Britain. As a result, there is a possibility that Great Britain could enter into a gas supply emergency."

If this happens, supplies would be cut to "the largest gas users" which will likely be "large gas-fired power stations which produce electricity to the National Electricity Transmission System".

In the event electricity supplies are disrupted, generators would have to pay what are known as "imbalance charges". These cover the cost of National Grid having to find electricity from elsewhere to meet demand.

Ofgem said this "could result in potential insolvency of gas-fired generators if a gas supply emergency occurs".

The Times article upon which that BBC article is based: archive.ph

The TImes article includes:

National Grid, which is responsible for keeping the lights on and gas flowing, has issued a tender for more back-up gas supplies to help manage any short-term disruption this winter, in a move reported by the Sunday Telegraph.

It is due to publish its outlook for gas and electricity supplies this week, but concern is growing in the industry.

I wouldnt like to make exact predictions because uncertainties include the amount of gas available, the situation in other countries which can impact on gas and electricity supplies here, and the weather conditions this winter which will affect demand and certain renewables ability to contribute significantly to the electricity grid. But I would say that people should be prepared for the possibility of supply disruption.

 

[WouldBe]

I thought we only got 4% of our gas from Russia via Europe. If people are going to cut back on gas usage due to the cost I can't see any major disruption would occur.

 

[gentlegreen]

I thought we only got 4% of our gas from Russia via Europe. If people are going to cut back on gas usage due to the cost I can't see any major disruption would occur.

IF ...

Clearly some people are going to be in dire straits, but the wealthy won't give it a second thought and a lot of people will be relieved it was 25 percent and not 80 percent and it will be business as usual ...

 

[muscovyduck]

IF ...

Clearly some people are going to be in dire straits, but the wealthy won't give it a second thought and a lot of people will be relieved it was 25 percent and not 80 percent and it will be business as usual ...

And a lot of consumers are reliant on infrastructure we can't control, all the way down to what state our houses are in and in some cases the white goods already supplied. The energy crisis isn't a problem that can be solved on a individual level but where changes could be made near that level, we're fucked by the housing market laws and culture with so many people renting. It's not even a case of 'the wealthy can pay the bill' but a case of them NOT paying the bill - they're not incentivised to install solar panels or replace a badly rated fridge or whatever because as far as they're concerned, they're not going to save any money off it

 

[cupid_stunt]

I thought we only got 4% of our gas from Russia via Europe. If people are going to cut back on gas usage due to the cost I can't see any major disruption would occur.

It's true we were importing very little from Russia, but IIRC we import about 50% in total, which we source from the international market, and there's a lot of more competition from other countries, that used to import loads from Russia, for a limited supply.

 

[contadino]

The same story ran about 6 weeks ago. I wonder why it's been rehashed today...

 

[stavros]

IF ...

Clearly some people are going to be in dire straits, but the wealthy won't give it a second thought

Unless some form of rationing is introduced, which I very much doubt will happen with the current government. I have heard spoken about seriously in other European countries though.

 

[muscovyduck]

The response is gonna have March 2020 energy imo. If anything happens (eg energy rationing) it'll be because of pressure from the public looking like they're about to take things into their own hands and then it'll fizzle out as soon as the government and businesses think they can get away with it

 

[elbows]

The same story ran about 6 weeks ago. I wonder why it's been rehashed today...

Todays story is based on specific things Ofgem said in a letter. That letter was in response to financial implications that SSE raised with Ofgem on 28th September. See the link at the following page for the letter. P448 - Decision on Urgency

There will have been opportunities for the broader issues to come up in the press in the past, and there will no doubt be plenty of opportunities again in future.

 

[ska invita]

ive got gas central heating and a gas hob...is it worth me buying a little electrical heater for when the gas goes off?
it sounds like not necessary but would be interested in urbans informed opinion

 

[kalmatthew]

ive got gas central heating and a gas hob...is it worth me buying a little electrical heater for when the gas goes off?
it sounds like not necessary but would be interested in urbans informed opinion

I mean electric fan heaters are cheap enough that there is almost no downside. However the problem is that to maintain domestic gas they are more likely to have to ration electricity than gas, not that your gas boiler will work without electricity. If I was really looking at resiliency I'd look at battery powered heated clothing or blankets.

 

[gentlegreen]

I'm 100 percent electric and if I didn't have a bag of charcoal I might be buying a gas cylinder for my camp stove ...

 

[elbows]

The response is gonna have March 2020 energy imo. If anything happens (eg energy rationing) it'll be because of pressure from the public looking like they're about to take things into their own hands and then it'll fizzle out as soon as the government and businesses think they can get away with it

There are several different types of rationing. The biggest involves large industrial users, and a lot of that stuff is baked into the normal system designed for normal times, eg as part of contracts. Since the possibility of this stuff actually being required this winter has increased compared to other years, there is a lot of work going on behind the scenes to consider the implications and knock on consequences, with this SSE stuff being an example of a commercial entity trying to get the rules tweaked so that it may survive economically if that scenario unfolds.

Also under the rationing banner that the media have used is the stuff seen in some european countries where the public, businesses, local government etc are being asked to do things in advance of winter that will make some difference to electricity and/or gas demand. Thats the sort of thing that the UK government has utterly resisted doing so far.

The third kind of rationing will be the emergency sort if we end up with a situation where lack of gas has a knock on effect on electricity supplies, and we could face various forms of emergency reduction in demand. Under those conditions regardless of public sentiment, various emergency ways to reduce demand in a somewhat organised way will kick in, and thats when things like scheduled, rolling blackouts, reductions in the working week etc etc will suddenly loom large.

 

[ska invita]

I mean electric fan heaters are cheap enough that there is almost no downside. However the problem is that to maintain domestic gas they are more likely to have to ration electricity than gas, not that your gas boiler will work without electricity. If I was really looking at resiliency I'd look at battery powered heated clothing or blankets.

interesting
ive got an electric blanket - its already in use
but having zero heating and just that would be grim
quite useful to have a little electric heater in reserve anyway like for when the boiler packs in occasionally

 

[gentlegreen]

I wonder if they would keep the cellphone towers powered ..

 

[Storm Fox]

I'm 100 percent electric and if I didn't have a bag of charcoal I might be buying a gas cylinder for my camp stove ...

If you do please get a Carbon Monoxide alarm.

 

[weltweit]

I wonder if they would keep the cellphone towers powered ..

Better had !!

 

[kalmatthew]

Better had !!

This is particularly important as with the roll out of VoIP land lines peopled home phones are no longer guaranteed to work in a power cut. Previously the exchanges would of been battery backed up and provide enough power to run the phones but fiber doesn't deliver power and ofcom haven't mandated battery backup except for venerable customers. The so the cell sites become more critical however lots of the smaller ones won't have any serious emergency power.

 

[elbows]

I wonder if they would keep the cellphone towers powered ..

Its a question of logistics. As far as I know the towers tend to have battery backups but those are probably only designed to last for periods such as half an hour.

So then it comes down to whether there is enough granularity within the grid to be able to turn off power to some customers while maintaining power to the towers. My assumption is that in most cases this capability is lacking. Certain priority sites are probably covered, but I expect towers have not tended to be part of such nuances within the system.

Other emergency options include sticking mobile generators next to the towers, but I would guess that there wont be enough supply of generators to do this, but perhaps they'l be able to manage this for certain high priority towers.

edit - here is an example of a story about this as it pertains to various european countries. Exclusive: Europe braces for mobile network blackouts

 

[weltweit]

Still, if you can't charge your smart phone the point might be moot..

 

[gentlegreen]

I suppose I'd better charge up my radio

 

[elbows]

Still, if you can't charge your smart phone the point might be moot..

Less of an issue given that rolling blackouts would probably be planned to only last for so many hours at a time, and that plenty of people have usb battery packs, laptops etc which could fill a bit more of such a gap.

 

[Storm Fox]

Better had !!

Normally they would have a battery backup. I had a power outage and the Cell Tower latest about 15 minutes. But I'm in a semi-rural location, Possibly some in urban locations will be on Diesel backup, but these are only likely to be on towers on phone company premises.

 

[bluescreen]

Domestic gas won't go off. (It's far too complicated and dangerous.) It will be gas to industry that is cut, inc possibly gas-fired power stations. But domestic gas prices could always go up as a form of rationing.

I've been concerned for some time that there may be sporadic electric power cuts. It's sensible to stock up if you can on alternative lighting and heating/warm clothing.

 

[agricola]

There are several different types of rationing. The biggest involves large industrial users, and a lot of that stuff is baked into the normal system designed for normal times, eg as part of contracts. Since the possibility of this stuff actually being required this winter has increased compared to other years, there is a lot of work going on behind the scenes to consider the implications and knock on consequences, with this SSE stuff being an example of a commercial entity trying to get the rules tweaked so that it may survive economically if that scenario unfolds.

Also under the rationing banner that the media have used is the stuff seen in some european countries where the public, businesses, local government etc are being asked to do things in advance of winter that will make some difference to electricity and/or gas demand. Thats the sort of thing that the UK government has utterly resisted doing so far.

The third kind of rationing will be the emergency sort if we end up with a situation where lack of gas has a knock on effect on electricity supplies, and we could face various forms of emergency reduction in demand. Under those conditions regardless of public sentiment, various emergency ways to reduce demand in a somewhat organised way will kick in, and thats when things like scheduled, rolling blackouts, reductions in the working week etc etc will suddenly loom large.

The failure to give any meaningful advice or direction with regards to how to reduce energy consumption (or reward for doing it) is especially criminal; there is scope for many (most) people (and certainly most businesses) to reduce their energy consumption relatively painlessly and it should have been relentlessly put out ever since the "special operation" started.

 

[stdP]

The same story ran about 6 weeks ago. I wonder why it's been rehashed today...

Private Eye has been banging on about exactly this sort of scenario for years (in large because there's been many journalists and analysts worried about the ever-thinner capacity margins the grid runs at especially during the winter) for at least five years before the invasion of Ukraine. Government response to the concerns has largely been a large "la-la-la-I-can't-hear-you" since it's difficult to magic up an extra few jiggerwatts without fairly colossal capital investment "for a worst case scenario that may not even happen".

More directly, what a lot of people forget is that gas central heating requires electricity to work, and in the absence of gas power stations there isn't enough electricity to keep everyone running fan heaters either. Even in this very mild october weather we're still using over 50% gas turbines for electricity generation*.

I think a large part of the current ruling party think that ideologically the market will sort out the people who can afford not to die of hypothermia; in reality I think a lot of people would rather blow their credit cards and hope for disconnection in the spring rather than freeze to death in the winter, but I'm hoping it won't actually come down to the test as I fear it might.

* For the record, I'm of the pro-nuclear bent for base load whilst we get renewables and electricity storage (and the grid infrastructure to support it) up to snuff (and it isn't currently even with the huge returns reaped from solar and wind in the last decade).

 

[WouldBe]

It's true we were importing very little from Russia, but IIRC we import about 50% in total, which we source from the international market, and there's a lot of more competition from other countries, that used to import loads from Russia, for a limited supply.

A lot of the gas we import comes in in tankers from US and the gulf. A lot of European countries don't have the facilities to receive these ships and then there are landlocked countries that can't possibly receive a tanker load of gas.

It maybe possible that we could unload the tankers here and pipe the gas to Europe via the existing pipeline but then we would get first dibs on the gas.

 

[Artaxerxes]

And a lot of consumers are reliant on infrastructure we can't control, all the way down to what state our houses are in and in some cases the white goods already supplied. The energy crisis isn't a problem that can be solved on a individual level but where changes could be made near that level, we're fucked by the housing market laws and culture with so many people renting. It's not even a case of 'the wealthy can pay the bill' but a case of them NOT paying the bill - they're not incentivised to install solar panels or replace a badly rated fridge or whatever because as far as they're concerned, they're not going to save any money off it

Yeah an awful lot of houses and flats use gas boilers for cooking and heating,

 

[elbows]

A lot of the gas we import comes in in tankers from US and the gulf. A lot of European countries don't have the facilities to receive these ships and then there are landlocked countries that can't possibly receive a tanker load of gas.

It maybe possible that we could unload the tankers here and pipe the gas to Europe via the existing pipeline but then we would get first dibs on the gas.

That already happens, especially since europe has more gas storage capacity than the UK. But I dont think there is a 'first dibs' component to this arrangement, and most of the interconnected systems between nations are setup on the basis that if one country has a shortfall, others will have spare capacity to send their way, an assumption that will probably get into trouble this winter.

 

[elbows]

* For the record, I'm of the pro-nuclear bent for base load whilst we get renewables and electricity storage (and the grid infrastructure to support it) up to snuff (and it isn't currently even with the huge returns reaped from solar and wind in the last decade).

Timescales for new nuclear builds are a problem though. I'm not pro-nuclear but would probably hedge my bets by going for both nuclear and storage in the medium terms, so long as as much funding attention is paid to storage as it is nuclear. Neither will fix the short-term issues though, although there are plans to extend the life of a couple of the current nuclear reactors which are currently due to reach end of life within a couple of years.