UK gas/electricity supply shortages this winter

[elbows]

I note that the lieks of the BBC are increasingly publishing articles about people who are off-grid. The framing is often in terms of saving money and the cost of living crisis, but I'll put them in this thread because they are relevant to any lack of supply crisis too.

Some examples:

Cost of living: The people using solar panels and turbines to reduce bills

Meet the people who are choosing alternative ways to heat their homes and keep their bills down.

www.bbc.co.uk

Cost of living: Off-gridders are one step ahead in energy crisis

Some families are avoiding the spiralling cost of energy bills with self-sufficient solutions.

www.bbc.co.uk

Off-gridders take energy needs into their own hands

Natural disasters have spurred some communities and homeowners to generate their own electricity.

www.bbc.co.uk

The first of those articles include a photo of the sort of battery I was referring to in my previous post, in this case the Tesla Powerwall system.

Here is an example of someone in the UK doing a youtube video about that battery:

 

[Chz]

I was trying to explain all of this to my mum, but she didn't really get it. She has the luxury of being in Canada, where 75% of electricity is hydro or nuclear. I think she was mocking me for moving here.

 

[elbows]

I wont get a chance to read the report properly for a bit so in the meantime:

British households could lose power for up to three hours at a time this winter if gas supplies run extremely low, National Grid has warned.

The company said it was an "unlikely" scenario but added that supply interruptions were a possibility if the energy crisis escalated.

Cuts would probably occur at peak times such as morning or early evening, and customers would be warned in advance.

But as a "base case" National Grid expects homes will face no problems.

There is also more quotable detail in the BBC coverage of the National Grid report than I have time to provide right now.

Homes face winter power cuts in worst-case scenario, says National Grid

Cuts would probably occur at peak times and customers would be warned in advance.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[teuchter]

On the subject of storage - someone was telling me about this the other day.

District Heating with Seasonal Storage in Vojens Denmark

In Vojens, in the not too sunny Denmark, the largest storage of seasonal solar heat project in the world is operational since 2016. Denmark is unique in that it has many district heating systems in…

deepresource.wordpress.com

Storing heat rather than electricity. Surprising to me that it works (that is, you can actually store significant heat over a summer/winter cycle just by having a large amount of water in an insulate pond).

It depends on places having district heating infrastructure though - much more common in Denmark than the UK.

 

[elbows]

The full reports are here for electricity:

Winter Outlook | National Grid ESO

The Winter Outlook Report presents National Grid ESOs view of security of supply for the electricity systems for the winter ahead, each year our outlook reports evolve to reflect our stakeholders’ feedback as we endeavour to provide more useful information for you.

www.nationalgrideso.com

and here for gas:

Gas Winter Outlook, Review and Consultation | National Grid Gas

This report draws together our analysis of the supply and demand of both gas and electricity for winter along with our initial view of the winter ahead.

www.nationalgrid.com

 

[ska invita]

First thought was switching electricity off from 4-7 will be dark out in winter. Better during daytime

 

[cupid_stunt]

First thought was switching electricity off from 4-7 will be dark out in winter. Better during daytime

The chances are there would be enough supply during the daytime, but not at peak times, like the evenings.

 

[Karl Masks]

First thought was switching electricity off from 4-7 will be dark out in winter. Better during daytime

That would be a terrible idea. Don't most people cook their evening meals at that time? What if they come home from a job and can't change their meal times so easily?

 

[cupid_stunt]

That would be a terrible idea. Don't most people cook their evening meals at that time? What if they come home from a job and can't change their meal times so easily?

You were clearly not about in the 70's when we had rolling 3-hour blackouts due to the miners' strikes, they were mainly in the evenings.

We had a camping stove, gas lights/candles, and a portable B&W telly powered by a car battery.

 

[cesare]

You were clearly not about in the 70's when we had rolling 3-hour blackouts due to the miners' strikes, they were mainly in the evenings.

We had a camping stove, gas lights/candles, and a portable B&W telly powered by a car battery.

Don't forget the paraffin gas heaters.

 

[elbows]

People doing that sort of thing at those times contributes to why those are peak demand times in the first place. Times when it would be more 'convenient' to switch off the power are not the times they would expect to have trouble getting supply to meet demand, so they wouldnt have to take drastic action to destroy demand at those less popular times.

Anyway they dont know if such rolling blackouts will actually turn out to be necessary. But circumstances mean that their winter report wont be considered credible this year unless they included such a scenario as that one.

The report actually presents three example scenarios:

One where there is no major problem at any point and all their standard mechanisms for balancing supply and demand do the job. Thats the sort of scenario they are used to sticking in these winter reports, within their comfort zone where they can waffle on about market mechanisms handling everything, but they really couldnt get away with only presenting that one this year.

One where things are tighter and at times over winter they have to rely on several additional mechanisms - some spare coal power station capacity that they've done deals to keep available, which can add 2GW to the system if needed. And a new deal to incentivise customers to use less power at peak times, which for planning purposes they are estimating can also give them another 2GW of wiggle room. This scenario covers a situation where inability to meet demand happens as a result of not being able to import electricity when desperately needed from the interconnectors to other countries, as would normally happen via some 'market mechanisms' in those circumstances. But it does still assume we can get power from the Norway interconnector.

And one where gas shortages mean that the rolling blackouts have to be implemented because all the usual mechanisms and the other stuff mentioned above is still not enough to enable supply to meet demand. They wont have the luxury of doing such blackouts outside peak hours, but they do plan to only do them in some parts of the country per occasion, and to provide advanced notice. And these are example scenarios based on a certain shortfall of gas powered generation over a certain period of time. The reality could be worse, better or otherwise different in its detail compared to these scenarios.

There are other details to these scenarios too, such as assuming low wind conditions.

 

[elbows]

I already commented on some other thread some time ago that it was unwise for Truss to have promised that there would be no energy rationing.

And now with the backdrop of the National Grid report, the media have really started to focus on her ideological bullshit being responsible for scuppering a campaign to save energy.

Energy use advice campaign pulled as No 10 objects

A minister denies a full plan was blocked by Liz Truss's office and insists energy supplies are secure.

www.bbc.co.uk

The Times newspaper had reported that the prime minister had rejected plans for a £15m public information campaign, which was signed off by the business secretary, Jacob Rees-Mogg.

It suggested Ms Truss was "ideologically opposed" to the campaign amid concerns it would be too interventionist.

I understand the Department for Business has worked "for a long time" on a plan for a campaign but it has been told not to go ahead. To the question "who stopped it?", I was told "Number 10 and the Department of Health".

This week Liz Truss told her party conference her conservatism was about "freedom".

"I'm not going to tell you what to do, or what to think or how to live your life," she said.

Some question whether a campaign is needed. Many people are already changing their behaviour, saving energy where they can. And there is general advice on energy saving of course.

But those with knowledge of the a campaign say they don't understand the logic of blocking it. "Slightly mystifying," they say.

 

[Pickman's model]

I already commented on some other thread some time ago that it was unwise for Truss to have promised that there would be no energy rationing.

And now with the backdrop of the National Grid report, the media have really started to focus on her ideological bullshit being responsible for scuppering a campaign to save energy.

Energy use advice campaign pulled as No 10 objects

A minister denies a full plan was blocked by Liz Truss's office and insists energy supplies are secure.

www.bbc.co.uk

so the friends truss and 'tiz' coffey crushed it out

 

[elbows]

I've not explored the Coffey stuff - I would always expect the likes of DHSC to raise the concern about some old people going too far and putting their health in jeopardy by not putting on the heating when they really should, but of course that legitimate concern can also be used to justify opposing a campaign when thats not actually the objectors real reason for opposing it.

 

[two sheds]

If she hadn't given away so much money they could afford to do the basic upgrades for people for free, repaid from giving people employment and not having to build so many new power stations. .

 

[StoneRoad]

Remind me how much she was/is getting from that company with a scallop for a logo ?

 

[elbows]

IDS is one of the Tory MPs calling on the government to do an energy saving campaign after all. Because he thinks there is a generation out there who are wandering around their homes in t-shirts in the winter.

Tory MPs urge Truss to launch campaign on cutting energy use

Intervention comes amid reports No 10 blocked public information campaign over ‘nanny state’ fears

www.theguardian.com

 

[WouldBe]

IDS is one of the Tory MPs calling on the government to do an energy saving campaign after all. Because he thinks there is a generation out there who are wandering around their homes in t-shirts in the winter.

My neighbour does that.

 

[Nine Bob Note]

I'm browsing USB-chargeable lights on Amazon, and I'll keep my powerbank, phones and rarely-used laptop and tablet charged ASAP. Food wise, so long as I have bread, butter and cheese, I imagine I'll survive. ENGERLUND NA NA!!!

 

[cupid_stunt]

IDS is one of the Tory MPs calling on the government to do an energy saving campaign after all. Because he thinks there is a generation out there who are wandering around their homes in t-shirts in the winter.

Tory MPs urge Truss to launch campaign on cutting energy use

Intervention comes amid reports No 10 blocked public information campaign over ‘nanny state’ fears

www.theguardian.com

I know people that do that, and I've had several conversations recently about how much more gas is costing now compared to Jan, no one guessed even close, because even if people have any idea at all, they tend to think in terms of their combined energy cost increase, and not the difference between electric & gas.

Because gas use would have been fairly low since the first big hike in April it hasn't been a massive part of their bills so far, I think a lot of people are in for a bit of a shock over just how much their winter heating will cost if they don't make changes to how they use it.

TBF, it was only after doing my own comparison on my units rates that I realised it myself, electric up by about 75%, but gas by a whopping 165%.

 

[elbows]

Zahawi is trying to claim that they didnt go for the energy saving campaign due to cost.

And also:

Following a warning from National Grid that UK households could lose power for up to three hours at a time this winter, Mr Zahawi said that scenario was "very unlikely".
"I'm confident that the resilience is there, that people can enjoy their Christmas," he said.

Energy use advice campaign pulled due to cost, Zahawi says

The cabinet minister tells the BBC the public information campaign would have cost up to £15m.

www.bbc.co.uk

Well as per this graph from the National Grid report, there is a lot more wiggle room over Christmas due to the big drop in expected demand at that time of year, so its quite easy to make banal statements about people being able to enjoy Christmas.



from https://www.nationalgrideso.com/document/268346/download

 

[gentlegreen]

"Enjoying Christmas" - when did we hear that before ?
Oh yes ...

 

[elbows]

I'll try to keep up with industry news from various countries that has knockon implications for UK electricity this winter.

The situation with Frances nuclear power stations is one of the most obvious. It now appears that strikes are compounding the challenges of getting a load of their reactors back online in time for winter:

Strikes delay restart of French reactors - Nuclear Engineering International

A representative of France's FNME-CGT (National Federation of Mines and Energy) trade union has revealed that some workers at EDF's nuclear plants had resumed their strike over salaries, delaying maintenance work on eight reactors....

www.neimagazine.com

Even their more recent estimates delivered in September failed to materialise:

At the beginning of September, EDF predicted more than 35GWe of nuclear power would be available on the network by the beginning of October, but this has not been realised. As of 12 October, barely 30GWe was available on the network, according to RTE data.

 

[StoneRoad]

That prompted me to look at this [the UK equivalent, I presume]

Power station status

Find the status of our nuclear power stations & see which nuclear reactors are in service & what power they are generating. You can also find which reactors are out of service and for how long.

www.edfenergy.com

seems OK to me

 

[elbows]

Yes the UK nuclear situation wont look so bad on that page these days. It looked worse for a time on that page but some stuff got fixed and a bunch of the other affected reactors have since been permanently closed so they arent listed on that page any more:

Dungeness B was given a 10 year life extension in 2015. But in 2018 the regulator ordered a reassessment of some bad corrosion issues. Remedial measures were planned but the reopening kept getting put back and then in June 2021 EDF announced that it was never going to reopen.

Hunterston B was given a 5 year life extension to 2016, and they hoped to extend that to 2023. Various cracking issues were discovered in the second half of the 2010s but they were still able to restart the reactors for a few subsequent periods. Ultimately the two reactors were taken offline for the last time in November 2021 and January 2022.

The end for Hinkley Point B was originally hoped to not happen till 2023, and they may even have hoped for an extension beyond that. But in November 2020 they announced a slightly earlier end and its two reactors were removed from active service in July and August 2022.

The remaining reactors scheduled closure dates are not something I consider to be fixed in stone. Some have occasionally been brought forwards by a few years, though for others some further extensions are still hoped for - they used to hope for an ideal world where they could have kept all the AGR's going for longer than has turned out to be possible at the 3 closed ones I mentioned. Everything could end up being reviewed again in the wake of the energy crisis, they will want to avoid those 2024 closures for a start. So the dates for 'accounting closure' in one of the following tables should not be taken literally.

Tables from the wikipedia entry at Nuclear power in the United Kingdom - Wikipedia





The situation with France can affect the UK directly in several ways, the most obvious of which is that we and other European countries were used to France being a net exporter of electricity. UK planning has traditionally assumed that electricity can be supplied to us from France via interconnectors when we need it, via price mechanisms, and they cant be sure of that any more which is one of the reasons whey had to look at some other scenarios in the winter planning report.

I get the impression that potential issues arent just about total power available, but also in getting it to the right places via our own transmission system. eg there were already some hairy moments in the summer where there were issues with not having enough grid transmission facilities to get electricity to meet local demand to parts of the South East on certain days. Given the location of interconnectors with France, I suppose its possible that this could be part of the picture that creates that challenge.

 

[cupid_stunt]

I see it's back in the news today, with another warning from National Grid.

The head of Britain's electricity and gas systems' operator has told households to prepare for blackouts between 4pm and 7pm on weekdays during "really, really cold" days in January and February if gas imports are reduced.

John Pettigrew, the National Grid chief, said blackouts would have to be imposed during the "deepest darkest evenings" in January and February if electricity generators did not have enough gas to meet demand, especially if there is a period of cold weather.

His comments were made at the Financial Times's Energy Transition Summit on Monday.

Blackouts may be imposed on cold weekday evenings, National Grid chief warns

The warning from the head of the National Grid follows the electricity and gas systems operator outlining unlikely scenarios when blackouts may take place this winter.

news.sky.com

 

[weepiper]

It's going to be a shit winter for latchkey kids of single parents (mine). They get home from school at 4pm and I don't get back from work til half past six. If this goes ahead they'll be alone in the dark and cold without so much as a screen to entertain themselves.

 

[elbows]

It's going to be a shit winter for latchkey kids of single parents (mine). They get home from school at 4pm and I don't get back from work til half past six. If this goes ahead they'll be alone in the dark and cold without so much as a screen to entertain themselves.

Will your workplace remain active without grid power or will you be sent home early under those conditions?

I suppose we will have a separate thread for tips if this stuff becomes very real. Not sure whether to start giving advanced tips, though many of them require the spending of money that people may not have.

Unless the situation becomes especially bleak, the plan is to rotate the blackouts around the country, so hopefully people wont endure days in a row of those conditions. Its also not clear whether Scotland will end up faring better than England - I havent checked recently but Scotland used to be a big exporter of electricity to down south. They'd still like to spread the impact out around the country but I suppose if there are certain issues with being able to move enough electricity south at the right moments, Scotland could end up not having roling blackouts as often as England. I have low confidence in this claim though since they are used to moving a hell of a lot of electricity south, and I really need to update my grid knowledge.

 

[weepiper]

Will your workplace remain active without grid power or will you be sent home early under those conditions?

I suppose we will have a separate thread for tips if this stuff becomes very real. Not sure whether to start giving advanced tips, though many of them require the spending of money that people may not have.

Unless the situation becomes especially bleak, the plan is to rotate the blackouts around the country, so hopefully people wont endure days in a row of those conditions. Its also not clear whether Scotland will end up faring better than England - I havent checked recently but Scotland used to be a big exporter of electricity to down south. They'd still like to spread the impact out around the country but I suppose if there are certain issues with being able to move enough electricity south at the right moments, Scotland could end up not having roling blackouts as often as England. I have low confidence in this claim though since they are used to moving a hell of a lot of electricity south, and I really need to update my grid knowledge.

I don't know. Not sure how we could stay open with the shop infrastructure the way it is just now, but equally 4-7pm is traditionally the busiest time of the day so if we have to close we'll take a big hit by doing so.

 

[elbows]

I don't know. Not sure how we could stay open with the shop infrastructure the way it is just now, but equally 4-7pm is traditionally the busiest time of the day so if we have to close we'll take a big hit by doing so.

I suppose if its the busiest time of the day due to customers behaviour timing, then factor in that customers may change those behaviour patterns on those days too. Which could make certain periods even more intense.